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Thunder-Mavericks: Schedule, how to watch, predictions & analysis – NBA.com
While Luka Doncic and SGA are on the marquee, this series may come down to the performance of supporting casts.
Michael C. Wright
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic and meet in the playoffs for the 1st time after splitting 10 career games in the regular season.
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It’s been a while since we’ve seen these teams face off in the postseason. The last time it happened (2016), Oklahoma City bested the Dallas Mavericks 4-1. In fact, the Thunder have won the last two playoff series between these teams.
OKC took the regular-season series 3-1, and the Thunder defeated Dallas in five of the last seven meetings between these teams over the last two seasons. You’ll hear quite a bit about the two Kia MVP finalists headlining this matchup. Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander meet in the playoffs for the first time after posting records of 5-5 against one another in the regular season.
Series schedule
Here’s how to watch the Mavericks vs. Thunder series:
All times Eastern Standard Time
* = If necessary
Top storyline
Of course, it’s all about the names on the marquee. So, expect all eyes to be on Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander given their MVP pedigree. As important as they are to their teams, this series will likely come down to how the supporting casts perform.
Doncic can lean on veteran guard Kyrie Irving as a lethal co-star, while Gilgeous-Alexander has the luxury of playing off on an up-and-coming star in Jalen Williams. It goes deeper as Dallas’ trade deadline acquisitions, as well as Derrick Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II significantly improved the athleticism around Doncic and Irving.
The youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series, the Thunder flex a deep, largely homegrown squad with an elite perimeter defender in Luguentz Dort and a top-notch rim protector in Rookie of the Year finalist Chet Holmgren.
Keep your eyes on
The Mavericks guards: Doncic and Irving proved to be a handful in the opening round. So, OKC is tasked with devising ways to slow them, while also limiting the Dallas bigs’ ability to affect outcomes with the lob game. When Doncic and Irving are consistently successful throwing alley-oops, and finding the bigs near the rack, the Mavs are nearly impossible to stop.
It’s likely Dort will get first crack at defending Doncic, while SGA stays on Irving and Williams checks Jones. Holmgren serves as the ideal security blanket on the back end. Offensively, Holmgren will give Daniel Gafford problems.
1 more thing to watch for each team
Kyrie Irving has 'never guarded' like he's guarding now as Mavericks advance
For Mavericks: Dallas received plenty of warranted criticism regarding its defense earlier in the season, but the Mavs improved drastically towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Dallas limited the Clippers to fewer than 95 points in three games in the opening round, despite LA scoring fewer than 95 just three times in the regular season. Defense has been key.
For Thunder: The Mavs are more formidable than OKC’s first-round opponent. So, given the relative youth and inexperience of the Thunder, it’s worth pondering how well they maintain composure on a bigger stage with higher stakes. Luckily for the Thunder, two of their top four players – Gilgeous Alexander and Dort – own 28 games of postseason experience.
1 key number to know
93.5 — In sweeping the Pelicans in the first round, the Thunder held New Orleans to just 93.5 points per 100 possessions, the lowest mark for any team in a playoff series in the last eight years.
The Pels ranked last in field goal percentage in the paint (47.6%), 15th in effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (43.0%), and last in turnover rate (18.8 per 100 possessions). They were without Zion Williamson for the series, but the Thunder had the league’s fourth-ranked defense in the regular season and they’ve turned it up a notch in the playoffs.
The Mavs, with two of the best offensive players in the world, present a tougher challenge. Dallas’ 146 points on 106 possessions (138 per 100) on February 10 was the second-most efficient game any team had against Oklahoma City this season, and that was more about dominance in the paint (66-34) than fluky 3-point shooting.
— John Schuhmann
The pick
Thunder in seven. Brace yourself for plenty of bouts of brilliance from Doncic and Irving. Pressure won’t affect them. But the question is whether they’ll be able to maintain that standard of play an entire series. That’ll be tough against OKC, which finished the regular season ranked fourth in defensive rating. Gilgeous-Alexander has been a steady performer all season with a supporting cast that fits almost perfectly. The Thunder are deeper and healthier overall.
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Michael C. Wright is a senior writer for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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