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Why one of these top-11 men's college basketball teams in 2024's first AP poll will be a national champion – NCAA.com
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This is the first college basketball Associated Press poll of 2024 doing the talking, and here’s a hot tip for you.
Look closely at the top 11 teams. Memorize the list for when bracket challenge season comes. One of them is going to be the national champion.
Who says so? History says so. In the past 34 NCAA tournaments, 31 champions were in the top 11 in the first poll of the new year. That’s 91.2 percent accuracy. Try to find a forecast that is that reliable on the Weather Channel.
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Sure, there have been some mavericks who go against this rule. North Carolina in 2017, Connecticut in ’14. Syracuse wasn’t even ranked when the first poll landed in 2003. But for the most part, if a team is in the top 11 in January, it’s already on the shortlist for One Shining Moment.
So let’s take a look at the Eligible Eleven of ’24 and the storylines they could bring to April.
No. 1 Purdue, looking down at the rest of the nation from atop Mt. Edey. A championship would be an epic tale of atonement and should the Boilermakers match Virginia’s saga — rising from the ashes of a No. 16 seed upset to the title podium in one year — maybe Matt Painter and Tony Bennett could go on the road and give seminars together about how to endure historical infamy. But first, Purdue will have to earn its first Final Four trip in 44 years.
The Boilermakers have been ranked No. 1 the past four calendar years and their 25 consecutive weeks in the top-5 of the Associated Press poll is the longest streak in the nation and the second longest for a Big Ten team in 45 years. They’re already 3-0 this season in top-10 matchups and here comes a fourth on Friday against No. 9 Illinois.
No. 2 Kansas. When it comes to all-time national championships, the Jayhawks are behind UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke and Indiana. That must annoy the Lawrence folks a tad, to be that far back in the line of blue bloods, but one more title pulls Kansas even with the Blue Devils and Hoosiers.
No. 3 Houston. In the past 63 NCAA tournaments, only one team that led the nation in scoring defense ended up champion — Virginia in 2019. Since the Cougars at this moment are giving up only 49.4 points a game, six fewer than anyone else, they could join that exclusive club.
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No. 4 Connecticut. To win a national title is hard, to repeat is like trying to go to Mars. Only Duke and Florida have done it in the past half-century. Huskies, that’s your cue.
No. 5 Tennessee. March has been like quicksand for the Vols. They’ve never been to the Final Four and played only once in the Elite Eight. All that could be washed away.
No. 6 Kentucky. Can this be right? Kentucky has won only one game in the past three NCAA tournaments, fewer than Fairleigh Dickinson, Saint Peter’s or Texas Southern? Correct. Here’s the chance for the Wildcats to clean away their recent shortcomings and complete their MCGA campaign — Make Calipari Great Again.
No. 7 Marquette. Mark this down if the Golden Eagles and Kentucky last long enough in March to play. They have faced one another 10 times in the NCAA tournament, more than any other pairing.
No. 8 North Carolina. In a way, a title for the Tar Heels would be the most striking act of atonement of all. They are a year removed from making history as a pre-season No. 1 who didn’t even get a spot in the NCAA tournament. Also, with Houston, Marquette and North Carolina all on the list of candidates for deep runs, it could be a big Final Four for coaching diversity with Kelvin Sampson, Shaka Smart and Hubert Davis.
No. 9 Illinois. Key player, Terrence Shannon Jr. was suspended indefinitely at the end of December. He was the seventh leading scorer in the nation but the Illini have managed nicely since his suspension, winning their two games 104-71 over Fairleigh Dickinson and 96-66 over Northwestern. Check back Friday after their Purdue visit.
No. 10 Arizona. The Great Western Dry Spell is well known. No team from the West has won a national title in 26 years, going back to 1997 and… Arizona. Should the Wildcats end that drought in the same year the Pac-12 breaks up — at a Final Four held outside Phoenix — it would be among the more ironic championship stories. Not to mention the first team to win a title in its home state since UCLA in San Diego in 1975.
No. 11 Oklahoma. When’s the last time a team picked to finish 12th in its league ended up national champion? But there the Sooners were in the preseason poll, sliding in between those traditional Big 12 powers, Cincinnati and BYU.
What’s also conspicuous this first week of January is who’s missing from the top-11 list. Duke, Michigan State. Gonzaga. The Zags have dropped to No. 24 and are in danger of disappearing from the poll altogether. That hasn’t happened since 2016.
Those three powers all have plans to still be in the hunt and why not, given their pedigree? Things can change. In the first poll of 2023, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic weren’t even ranked. But this is the first poll of 2024 speaking again, and it’s like this: Take my top 11 and give the field. You can thank me in April.
Mike Lopresti is a member of the US Basketball Writers Hall of Fame, Ball State journalism Hall of Fame and Indiana Sportswriters and Sportscasters Hall of Fame. He has covered college basketball for 43 years, including 39 Final Fours. He is so old he covered Bob Knight when he had dark hair and basketball shorts were actually short.
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