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College basketball rankings: AP Poll projection features big shakeup after 17 of top 25 teams lose – 247Sports
AP Poll voters haven’t gotten much peace this season, constantly having to adjust the college basketball rankings as ranked teams continue to fall at a high rate. And that will be the case again Monday, when voters will have to account for a week in which 17 of the top 25 teams in last week’s AP Poll lost, including three of the top six teams.
It’s not that much more rosy just outside of the top 25 either, so it’s not simply a case of shuttling teams in and out. Instead, pollsters could see a situation where they rank less week-to-week like normal — this team lost, move ’em down, this team won, move ’em up — and more of a gauge of a team’s season-long (or at least multiple weeks-long) résumé. Could that lead to bigger than expected drops for teams that have struggled lately like Wisconsin and Kentucky? A bigger than usual leap for a team like South Carolina?
This week’s poll will have more to watch than most weeks.
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With all that said, here are our predictions for this week’s AP Poll:
A 12-game winning streak is impressive on its own (and is tied for the nation’s longest current streak). Doing so in a season where ranked teams have a losing record on the road against unranked teams serves to show just how consistently UConn is operating at a high level. Only one of those 12 wins came in a one-possession game, and UConn added wins of nine points and 25 points this week, the former in a home game against Butler and the latter on the road against Georgetown. The Huskies have three games against ranked teams left on the schedule, starting Saturday against Marquette.
The Boilermakers’ winning streak hasn’t gone on quite as long as UConn’s, but Purdue hasn’t lost since Jan. 9, stacking up eight-consecutive wins. That included a victory in Purdue’s lone game this week, a 20-point win over Indiana where Zach Edey blew the roof off Mackey Arena by hitting a 3-pointer. It was the first make of his career, and three points of the 26 he dropped on the Hoosiers as he continues his romp toward his second National Player of the Year. Edey wasn’t alone, and when Braden Smith plays the way he did against Indiana — 19 points, nine rebounds, four assists and four steals — the Boilermakers aren’t going to lose to very many teams.
The Cougars bounced back well from last week’s defeat at Kansas, defeating Oklahoma State by 16 points and then landing a valuable Big 12 road win by topping Cincinnati by five points. The Bearcats are physical and tough on the glass, which made it that much more impressive that Houston was able to win the rebounding battle, including pulling down 17 offensive rebounds. That enabled Houston to win despite shooting just 3-of-16 from behind the arc. It was certainly a grind; Jamal Shead had 16 points (on 6-of-25 shooting) and four assists, while J’Wan Roberts scored 20 points on 10-of-15 shooting and grabbed eight rebounds.
The Golden Eagles have now won seven straight and will have a chance to pull within one conference loss of UConn when the two teams meet on Saturday. Tyler Kolek is playing about as well anyone in the country, and he continued that in his lone game this week by scoring 27 points on 11-of-17 shooting while dishing out 13 assists and swiping two steals. Marquette actually trailed St. John’s by a point heading into the final 10 minutes, but Kolek refused to let Marquette lose, and the Golden Eagles won the final 10 minutes, 22-10. Six Marquette players scored at least eight points in the win.
We’ve written before how dangerous Clemson can be, and the Tar Heels found that out the hard way in an 80-76 loss that could prove to be big for the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament hopes if they can close out the season strong. North Carolina then faced a tight end game situation against Miami before coming out on top, 75-72. The Tar Heels got 19 big points, eight assists and four steals from freshman Elliot Cadeau, who paired with RJ Davis (25 points, seven rebounds, five assists, three stocks) to give North Carolina a massive backcourt performance when they needed it most.
The Jayhawks are falling apart a bit. Johnny Furphy played through illness against Kansas State, then practiced just once before struggling shooting against Baylor. Kevin McCullar Jr. played in the first game but missed the second as he continues to battle a nagging knee injury. Jamari McDowell, a depth piece who likely would have eaten some of McCullar’s minutes, also missed the Baylor game with illness. And then during the game, Dajuan Harris Jr. rolled his ankle, and while he returned to the court, he was pretty limited. Kansas is typically not a deep team at all, so the Jayhawks need to get healthy, and fast. But the Jayhawks split this week, losing in overtime at Kansas State and defeating a top-15 Baylor team.
Arizona outlasted Utah in a three-overtime thriller on the road, then followed that up with a terrific showing at Colorado in a 20-point victory. The Wildcats bullied Colorado with their balanced scoring, with five players scoring between 14 and 19 points, and that doesn’t count Motiejus Krivas scoring eight points in nine minutes. When Arizona scores like that, there aren’t many teams that can hang with the Wildcats. The key to Arizona being a legitimate national title contender will come down the to defense. The Wildcats are ranked No. 15 on KenPom, but they have stitches of both terrific defense and a bit more lax defense. Become more consistent there, and the Wildcats have a shot.
The Blue Devils got a bit of a reprieve after last Saturday’s loss at North Carolina, returning home for games against Notre Dame and Boston College this week, two games that Duke aced by at least 15 points. The Blue Devils face a trickier week moving forward, hosting a dangerous Wake Forest team before going on the road against a Florida State squad that leads the nation in effective height and has thrown some scares into a few pretty good teams. Duke can beat anybody on the right night, particularly when players like Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor play well.
Will the Gamecocks jump up this high? Remember that voters were late to reward South Carolina with a spot in the polls, but once they ranked the Gamecocks a week ago, they jumped all the way from unranked to No. 15. And with Nos. 10, 11, 12 and 13 all losing — along with No. 6 Tennessee, a team that South Carolina recently beat in Knoxville, the Gamecocks could make another jump. There’s real room for upward mobility here. South Carolina is on a seven-game winning streak, and while the Gamecocks’ season-long efficiency hasn’t been great, they’ve been much better of late; from Jan. 20-on, South Carolina has been the nation’s 13th-most efficient team.
The Volunteers slide from No. 6 with last week’s Nos. 7, 8 and 9 teams all winning and South Carolina taking another major jump. The Volunteers have lost two of their last four, sandwiched around wins at Kentucky and this week, over LSU. But Tennessee found itself mauled at the hands of Texas A&M, which both limited the Volunteers’ offense and shredded Tennessee’s defense while beating the Volunteers on the glass. Perhaps that will be the kind of wakeup call that Rick Barnes’ squad needs, particularly on defense, where Tennessee hasn’t been nearly as good over the last couple weeks.
11. Iowa State (18-5)
12. Illinois (17-6)
13. Auburn (19-5)
14. Baylor (17-6)
15. Alabama (17-7)
Iowa State moves up slightly after going 2-0 this week. As for the rest of these teams, it’s tough to see them falling too far with everyone below them losing as well. They’re high up enough in the polls that it just isn’t super likely that someone’s going to come up from below and push them down. So Illinois drops two spots. Auburn and Baylor one, and Alabama actually moves up a position despite losing once, with No. 11 Wisconsin falling after losing twice. Auburn and Baylor could swap spots given that Baylor’s loss came in a close game at Allen Fieldhouse, and while Auburn had a better win than Baylor by clocking Alabama, the Tigers also had a worse loss, getting run at Florida.
16. Dayton (19-4)
17. Creighton (17-7)
18. Kentucky (16-7)
19. Wisconsin (16-8)
20. BYU (17-6)
All five of these teams lost this week, and the biggest question is what are the voters going to do with Kentucky and Wisconsin? The Badgers lost twice last week, which probably should see Wisconsin bumped from the poll after losing four straight. But keep in mind that Wisconsin lost twice last week and … fell all the way to No. 11. So the voters haven’t been as punishing when teams have gone 0-fer. Kentucky split its games, but after the Wildcats have lost three of four and four of six, including three-straight home games, will the voters push Kentucky below some teams the Wildcats were ranked higher than last week?
21. Saint Mary’s (20-6)
22. Utah State (20-4)
23. Colorado State (19-5)
24. Virginia (19-5)
25. Indiana State (22-3)
We have four new teams in the poll this week, with Saint Mary’s, Colorado State, Virginia and Indiana State joining the proceedings. Each received votes last week and are on winning streaks of 12, four, eight and nine games, respectively. Utah State just stays in after taking a loss to Nevada at home, but bouncing back with a 19-point win over Boise State.
Texas Tech might be the currently ranked team to hold onto a spot that we didn’t project here. The Red Raiders split their games this week, falling at Baylor before returning home and defeating UCF.
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