2023 NBA bets, lines and stats for Monday – ESPN

There’s a hefty slate of 11 games on tap for Monday night. As usual, when it’s this busy, there are all types of angles and matchups that project to positive outcomes versus the available odds. Let’s explore to see if we can find some ways to beat the book.
NBA best bets Dec. 18
Clippers -3.5 over Pacers (-115): The Clippers are the hottest team in the NBA right now, winners of eight straight games and 12 of their last 15 since Russell Westbrook agreed to come off the bench. The Pacers, meanwhile, have fallen into a lull since making the finals of the inaugural NBA in-season tournament. They have lost three straight games, all by double figures, and played their last game without their MVP candidate Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton bruised his knee Friday, sat out Saturday, and is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game. Even if he plays, though, I’d still have the Clippers favored based on the way their team is currently clicking at both ends of the court.
Joel Embiid over 34.5 points (-110): Embiid has been wielding the blowtorch since returning from a two-game absence due to illness to start the month. In six December games, he is averaging 40.0 PPG on 61.9 FG%. The only reason that’s not even higher is because the 76ers have blown out their last four opponents by an average of 37 points and have been able to give their starters more rest. Monday’s opponent is the Bulls, who have been playing well of late. Chicago has won five of its past eight games, with the three losses in that stretch all competitive (by an average of just 4.7 points). I’m expecting Embiid to get his normal allotment of minutes in a close matchup. If he does, with the way he’s playing, he has a strong chance to sail right past the over here.
Pascal Siakam over 23.5 points (-120): Siakam has averaged 24.6 PPG in his last five outings, going over 23.5 points in three of those games. This includes 25 points on 73.3 FG% against the Hornets just 10 days ago. The Hornets have allowed the third-most points to opposing power forwards this season.
Luka Doncic over 35.5 points (-105): I felt more confident about this over when it was at 34.5 points, but I still feel good here at 35.5. Doncic has picked up his scoring a lot over the last seven games, five of which were without running mate Kyrie Irving (heel). Over this stretch, Doncic has put up 36.4 PPG with four games of 36-plus points. This game also has some extra oomph, with Dallas facing the defending champion Nuggets and one of Luka’s main competitors for MVP this season in Nikola Jokic. Doncic should be motivated to play his best and the Mavericks will likely require nothing less in a big matchup.
Jalen Brunson over 24.5 points (-125): Brunson dropped a career-high 50 points on the Suns on Friday, part of an eight-game stretch in which he has averaged 28.4 PPG with at least 21 points in all eight games. He’ll be facing a Lakers team that allows the eighth-most points to opposing point guards. When he last faced the Lakers, last season, Brunson lit them up for 37 points.
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics; Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 13-10 (15-6-2)
Cavaliers: 14-12 (11-14-1)
Line: Cavaliers (-4.5) Total: 214.5
Money Line: Rockets (+160), Cavaliers (-190)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 4, straight up 64%, 223.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Amen Thompson, (GTD – Illness); Victor Oladipo, (OUT – Knee)
Cavaliers: Ricky Rubio, (OUT – Personal); Darius Garland, (OUT – Jaw); Evan Mobley, (OUT – Knee); Ty Jerome, (GTD – Ankle)
LA Clippers at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 15-10 (12-13-0)
Pacers: 13-11 (13-11-0)
Line: Clippers (-2.5) Total: 241.5
Money Line: Clippers (-140), Pacers (+120)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 2.2, straight up 58%, 241.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Clippers: Mason Plumlee, (OUT – Knee); Bones Hyland, (GTD – Knee); Moussa Diabate, (OUT – Hip)
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Knee); Andrew Nembhard, (OUT – Knee); Jalen Smith, (OUT – Heel)
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Records (Against the Spread)
Bulls: 10-17 (12-14-1)
76ers: 18-7 (18-7-0)
Line: 76ers (-11.5) Total: 228.5
Money Line: Bulls (+425), 76ers (-550)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 13.2, straight up 89%, 228.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Alex Caruso, (GTD – Ankle); Torrey Craig, (GTD – Heel); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Foot)
76ers: None reported
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. State Farm Arena, Atlanta
Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 2-24 (8-17-1)
Hawks: 10-15 (6-19-0)
Line: Hawks (-10.5) Total: 242.5
Money Line: Pistons (+425), Hawks (-550)
BPI Projection: Hawks by 12.5, straight up 86%, 239.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Monte Morris, (OUT – Quadriceps); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Shoulder); Jalen Duren, (OUT – Ankle)
Hawks: Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Thumb); Bogdan Bogdanovic, (GTD – Ankle); Clint Capela, (GTD – Knee); De’Andre Hunter, (GTD – Knee); AJ Griffin, (OUT – Personal); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Back); Jalen Johnson, (OUT – Wrist)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 19-5 (13-8-3)
Heat: 15-11 (11-15-0)
Line: Timberwolves (-1.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (-115), Heat (-105)
BPI Projection: Heat by 2.8, straight up 60%, 225.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles); Anthony Edwards, (GTD – Hip); Jaden McDaniels, (GTD – Back); Josh Minott, (GTD – Illness)
Heat: Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee); Kyle Lowry, (OUT – Undisclosed)
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Records (Against the Spread)
Hornets: 7-17 (10-14-0)
Raptors: 10-15 (12-13-0)
Line: Raptors (-10.5) Total: 226.5
Money Line: Hornets (+450), Raptors (-600)
BPI Projection: Raptors by 10.7, straight up 84%, 225.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Hornets: Gordon Hayward, (GTD – Illness); Mark Williams, (GTD – Back); P.J. Washington, (GTD – Shoulder); Terry Rozier, (GTD – Thumb); Cody Martin, (OUT – Knee); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT – Lower Leg); LaMelo Ball, (OUT – Ankle)
Raptors: Christian Koloko, (OUT – Illness)
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 6-18 (9-15-0)
Thunder: 16-8 (16-7-1)
Line: Thunder (-10.5) Total: 228.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (+400), Thunder (-525)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 10.7, straight up 82%, 231.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Bismack Biyombo, (GTD – Back); Ja Morant, (OUT – Suspension); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Knee); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Foot); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Hamstring)
Thunder: None reported
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 16-9 (14-11-0)
Nuggets: 17-10 (11-15-1)
Line: Nuggets (-7.5) Total: 238.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+240), Nuggets (-290)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 6.4, straight up 72%, 233.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Richaun Holmes, (GTD – Illness); Dereck Lively II, (OUT – Ankle); Josh Green, (OUT – Elbow); Kyrie Irving, (OUT – Heel); Maxi Kleber, (OUT – Toe)
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee); Aaron Gordon, (GTD – Heel); Jamal Murray, (GTD – Ankle); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (GTD – Concussion); Jay Huff, (OUT – Ankle)
Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 13-12 (17-7-1)
Jazz: 9-17 (13-13-0)
Line: Nets (-3.5) Total: 233.5
Money Line: Nets (-155), Jazz (+135)
BPI Projection: Nets by 6.2, straight up 71%, 233.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Dorian Finney-Smith, (GTD – Knee); Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back); Dennis Smith Jr., (OUT – Back); Lonnie Walker IV, (OUT – Hamstring)
Jazz: John Collins, (GTD – Illness); Luka Samanic, (GTD – Illness); Omer Yurtseven, (GTD – Illness); Keyonte George, (OUT – Foot); Jordan Clarkson, (OUT – Thigh)
Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 4-21 (12-13-0)
Kings: 15-9 (14-10-0)
Line: Kings (-11.5) Total: 244.5
Money Line: Wizards (+500), Kings (-700)
BPI Projection: Kings by 9.7, straight up 80%, 237.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Delon Wright, (GTD – Knee); Johnny Davis, (GTD – Calf); Landry Shamet, (GTD – Ribs); Ryan Rollins, (GTD – Knee)
Kings: De’Aaron Fox, (GTD – Shoulder); Alex Len, (OUT – Ankle)
New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 14-11 (13-11-1)
Lakers: 15-11 (11-15-0)
Line: Lakers (-4.5) Total: 229.5
Money Line: Knicks (+160), Lakers (-190)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 3, straight up 61%, 233.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Knicks: Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Hip); Christian Wood, (GTD – Illness); D’Angelo Russell, (GTD – Head); Jarred Vanderbilt, (GTD – Back); LeBron James, (GTD – Calf); Gabe Vincent, (OUT – Knee); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (OUT – Back)

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