Sports
2024 WNBA Mock Draft 1.0 – Winsidr
The 2023 WNBA season is over, and allow me to be one of the many to wish the Las Vegas Aces congratulations on winning the WNBA Finals. With that, I turn my attention to the offseason, which means my first 2024 WNBA Mock Draft! Just like last year, I’ve spent countless hours watching tape and poring through the stats to find who I believe to be the 12 players selected in the first round for next season.
Before I jump in, a few caveats: Many players share WNBA eligibility and NCAA eligibility thanks to the COVID exemption, so it’s impossible at this point to know who will jolt for the W and who will run it back with their college teams. For the fun of this exercise, I’m assuming everyone who is draft eligible will declare and become a draft prospect. Additionally, since this mock is coming before free agency begins next month, my decisions were made with consideration to who I believe is more likely to seek to fill holes in the draft versus free agency. I am also only considering college athletes, despite knowing there are plenty of international players who could also go in the first round.
Let’s get to it!
WNBA Team Needs: Shot Creation, Perimeter Shooting, Ball Handler/Facilitator, Lengthy Wing Player
Player’s Best Fit: Literally any of the lottery teams
Caitlin Clark is the 2023 Aliyah Boston—a no-brainer, first-overall pick. There isn’t much that Clark doesn’t do exceptionally well on the offensive end. In her phenomenal 2022-2023 season, Clark was sixth overall in adjusted+ rating, an offensive and defensive rating metric that accounts for strength of schedule, and first among pure point guards. Clark was also second overall in RAPM, a metric that measures the plus-minus of each player above the Division I average, and again, first among her positional group. She was also first in her group in assist percentage (first overall as well), two-point percentage, and at-the-rim percentage. Clark was also eighth in her group in three-point rate (hard to fathom how anyone had a higher three-point barrage rate than her) and third in three-point percentage. All told, Clark had an offensive season for the ages, helping Iowa reach the championship game. If I were to nitpick (and being an Indiana fan, I surely will), she could be more efficient, as she finished only 57th overall in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and 79th in overall two-point percentage. This season, she’s picked up where she left off, coming in seventh in overall RAPM, second in overall usage, and eighth in overall adjusted+ rating in the early portion of the season.
Defensively, Clark has shown more consistency overall, which is surprising given the amount of energy she expels on the offensive end. Clark finished with 1.6 defensive win shares (DWS) last season, within the 96th percentile. If she’s in the draft, Clark will be selected first overall by the Fever. The Fever have needed some backcourt punch outside of Kelsey Mitchell for some time. Imagine a lineup including Mitchell, NaLyssa Smith, Aliyah Boston, and Clark. They are building something special in Indy, and the Fever simply cannot pass up on a player with this much talent, fire, and leadership.
WNBA Team Needs: Ball Handler/Facilitator, Shooting
Player’s Best Fit: Literally any of the lottery teams
Despite what I just said about Clark, I’m now going to walk it back a bit. Even without playing during the 2022-2023 season due to an ACL injury, there is still a reasonable argument—depending on who receives the first overall selection—that Bueckers could have her name called. Coming into last season, both Clark and Bueckers were interchangeable as the likely 1:1 and 1:2 selections. After Clark’s aforementioned season and Bueckers not having a season, the distance is greater, but the argument remains. During the 2021-2022 season, Bueckers was first among all ball handlers in adjusted+ rating, third in two-point percentage in the midrange, and seventh in eFG% . Bueckers possesses elite dribble drive and pull up capability with the ability to attack the rim at any moment. She also demonstrated an innate ability to work well off screens, squaring her shoulders and draining jumpers. Most of her shots came in the midrange, and she also was an exceptional passer, finishing in the 96th percentile for assists and 40th overall in assist percentage. This season, she’s healthy and still finding her game. She ranks 22nd among ball handlers in RAPM and seventh in adjusted+ rating. She’s 18th in turnover percentage and 44th in three-point percentage. The Paige Bueckers we know is still in there, but she will need more time to shake the rust off.
The larger question is whether Bueckers is mentally prepared not just to play but to handle the pressure of the UConn faithful’s incredibly high standards and expectations. Don’t get me wrong, I in no way believe she’s mentally soft. If there’s any player who can come back and be better than they were, it’s Bueckers. At the same time, it is an important aspect that needs to be watched as the season unfolds, especially with fellow star Azzi Fudd now out for the season.
In the W, Bueckers would likely work better in a Sabrina Ionescu role, one where she can come off-ball more and hunt her shots. She can pass willingly and capably but will surely thrive better with a more natural facilitator in place. It’s what will make her a great fit in Los Angeles. A star player who is no stranger to the bright lights, playing in the City of Angels with the likes of Nneka Ogwumike would be a strong landing spot for Bueckers. The pick-and-rolls between the two would be mesmerizing. The team is starving for a capable ball handler, especially if Jordin Canada moves on. Bueckers can also be the backcourt offensive force the team has been missing. It’s a perfect fit for one of the game’s brightest stars.
WNBA Team Needs: Wing Players (especially those who can score), Perimeter Shooting
Player’s Best Fit: Mercury, Storm, Sparks, Fever*
*only a fit with the Fever if they trade a frontcourt player, like NaLyssa Smith
Brink is the best forward/center in the draft class and arguably the best post player. Last season, Brink was fourth among all post players in adjusted+ rating, third in RAPM, first in block percentage, and seventh in defensive rebounding rate. Brink is agile and super lengthy with her 6’4” frame. However, for a player who shoots over 58.0 percent of her shots at the rim, she’s only 72nd in eFG%. Brink would benefit tremendously from added muscle to be able to finish more effectively at the rim. Part of her notorious foul issues in her career (her fouls per game have improved each season, for what it’s worth) is that players can beat her to the spot or with a post move because other than height, her size doesn’t present an imposing challenge. This in turn forces her to foul. To her credit, Brink is having an excellent 2023-2024 season and will have a role in the WNBA, but she will also need to hit the gym and add mass to round out her paint presence.
Speaking of the 23-24 season, Brink has done nothing but solidify her place as one of the best prospects in this draft. Brink is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage, free-throw percentage, three-point percentage, and if you can believe it, personal foul averages. She’s also first in RAPM and adjusted+ among post players this season. Simply put, Brink has been an absolute nightmare for teams this season.
In the WNBA, the Mercury cannot pass up on a prospect like Brink. Brink’s ability to defend inside and out will solidify a porous defense, while her ability to take you off the dribble will provide more spacing to a limited offense. Even if the fit isn’t the cleanest with Brittney Griner likely returning, Brink can become the heir to the post in Phoenix once Griner finally hangs them up. Who better to learn the ropes from than Griner? And with Brink’s aforementioned spacing capability, Griner and Brink both don’t have to clog the paint at the same time. Take the best prospect available and figure the rest out later.
WNBA Team Needs: Better Players (especially in the backcourt), Size, Shooting
Player’s Best Fit: Mercury, Storm, Mystics
One year ago, a sizable chunk of college basketball fans knew who Angel Reese was. Today, it’s impossible not to know Reese and her game. Since joining LSU head coach Kim Mulkey in Baton Rouge, Reese has done nothing but dominate the women’s game, combining her speed, footwork, physicality, and shooting prowess to leave her opponents in her wake. Reese finished last season third among all post players in adjusted+ rating, second in RAPM, fifth in defensive rebounding rate, and second in offensive rebounding rate. Do not get caught in post isolation defending Reese because she’ll bully you with her power and footwork. Move into drop coverage and she’ll bury you with a 16-footer. In other words, Reese’s bag is full and diverse. She’s not an exceptional three-point shooter, but she also hasn’t taken that many from deep in her career. Reese’s midrange game is growing in strength, even if her efficiency (50th in eFG%) could be improved. Her court vision is a major plus, finishing 17th in assist percentage among post players.
This season, there has been plenty of controversy around LSU and Reese. When Reese missed four games earlier this season for what she called a “mental health break,” there was much speculation about the true cause of her absence. Reese is back, and while her team is still struggling to find cohesion and rotations, she’s maintained her dominant paint presence.
Other than maybe the Fever, who already have a glut of bigs on their team, there really isn’t a team that couldn’t directly benefit from Reese’s services. Reese can be a moderate stretch four, operating more effectively with a more stay-at-home big. Atlanta would actually be a perfect place for her, but despite what some may believe, there is no way Reese falls that far.
But for a team like Seattle, who could use some more scoring outside of Jewell Loyd, Reese can be a terrific fit on the Storm. Learning how to be a big in the WNBA from Ezi Magbegor and Mercedes Russell will help create a seamless transition for Reese. And for a team looking to rise to the top of the WNBA in the post-Stewie era, a combo of Loyd and Reese can be just the anchors to do that.
WNBA Team Needs: Facilitator, Wing Player, Youthful Depth at Each Position
Player’s Best Fit: Wings, Mystics
Jackson was likely to go early in the first round last season had she declared, and with so few true, top-end wing players in this draft, Jackson could very well go in the lottery. But should the Big Four all declare, Jackson is the best of the next tier. Jackson is a high-level dribble penetrator who can create her own shot and doesn’t shy away from the contact. Among wing forwards last season, she placed third in rim percentage, RAPM, and adjusted+ rating. This season, she’s only played in two games due to a lower leg injury, but in the one game she played against a ranked opponent, she put up 31 points to go with 17 rebounds.
Her shooting could use some more polish (16th among wing forwards in eFG% last season), but this is a high-floor type of player who can have an immediate impact on the Wings. She isn’t the best defender, but the elite frontcourt defense from the Wings will help mask that early as she learns under head coach Latricia Trammell’s tutelage. Unless one of the guards inexplicably slips to this spot where the Wings can find their floor general for the next decade, filling their wing position with a quality player is the way to go.
WNBA Team Needs: Perimeter Shooting, Facilitator, Shot Creator
Player’s Best Fit: Sparks, Storm, Mystics
Edwards continues to rise up big boards with her outstanding play. Among post players last season, Edwards finished eighth in adjusted+ rating and second among just the power forwards and centers. She also finished sixth RAPM among the post players and 13th in eFG%. Her work at the rim is also impressive, finishing 16th in rim percentage last season and nearly doubling her rebounds per game from the season prior, so she’s a force to be reckoned with in the paint. Her big and powerful frame allows her to take up a lot of space defensively. This season, she’s been her usual solid self, earning the 14th best adjusted+ among wing forwards and the seventh best RAPM.
The Mystics are likely to either re-sign point guard Natasha Cloud or find a replacement in free agency, and they aren’t likely to reach for a perimeter shooter at this spot. While there’s always the possibility of a patented Mike Thibault Trade, look for the Mystics to identify a player who can work in the post, help create her own shot, and represent a Tianna Hawkins replacement. With uncertainty around Elena Delle Donne’s back and possible retirement, Edwards will team up with young center Shakira Austin to form a formidable new generation of Mystics bigs.
WNBA Team Needs: Facilitator, Shooting, Frontcourt Size
Player’s Best Fit: Lynx, Dream, Mystics
Pili’s rise to stardom is the exact reason for Utah’s rise in the standings last season. Last season, Pili finished eighth overall in adjusted+ rating and RAPM and second among wing forwards. She also finished 18th in eFG% (second among wing forwards), 44th from distance (10th), and second among the wing forwards in two-point percentage. In short, Pili can score at all three levels, and at 6’2”, she has the switchable frame to play the three in larger lineups and the four or possibly five in smaller ones.
This season, Pili has been incredible, placing first in RAPM, effective field goal percentage, and adjusted+ among wing forwards. She is also 10th in turnover percentage, 11th in three-point percentage, and ninth in rim percentage in this group. Pili is a force to be reckoned with, and when she’s cooking, she’s nearly impossible to slow down.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the writing has been on the wall in the Twin Cities for some time. Head coach Cheryl Reeve is simply hoping enough spins at the slot machine will force out another Lindsay Whalen to step in and give the Lynx the floor general they so sorely need. That means if Minnesota doesn’t add a player like Cloud in free agency, run it back with meager facilitators, or decides this draft is the one to snag its facilitator in a Georgia Amoore or even Hailey Van Lith, the play is Pili. She will add some depth and diversity to the Lynx offensive attack that needs another scorer outside of Napheesa Collier. Her size and switchability give Reeve plenty of lineup options to fit her in, and this addition will shuffle players like Jessica Shepard down the depth chart into a more comfortable and proper role.
WNBA Team Needs: Size, Shooting, Facilitator
Player’s Best Fit: Dream, Liberty
One of the more underrated bigs in the country, Jackson has put up some monster numbers in Lawrence. The 6’6” phenom finished ninth among all post players last season in adjusted+ rating, 17th in RAPM, fourth in eFG%, fifth in two-point percentage, and 20th in both defensive rebound rate (DREB%) and rim percentage. Her eFG% and DREB% finished sixth and 26th, respectively, among all college athletes last season. She is an elite rim runner and has developed her pick-and-roll game to be an effective option in a two-man game. While her rim finishing is strong, Jackson hasn’t developed her midrange game yet, so to help expand her game for an increasingly spread-out WNBA, it would serve her well to work on that this season. Like Brink, Jackson could also stand to improve her footwork to move better defensively and not foul. This season, she’s off to a slow start by her standards, but she has still been impactful and a quality player for the Jayhawks.
With Dallas owning Atlanta’s 2025 first-round pick from the Allisha Gray trade and forward Cheyenne Parker’s contract expiring that same year, it would behoove the Dream to find Parker’s replacement and an immediate-impact type of player in the upcoming draft. While general manager Dan Padover could look to solve the Dream’s point guard woes with an Amoore or maybe Van Lith (her toughness might win over head coach Tanisha Wright almost immediately), the Dream’s lack of size against Dallas in the postseason really stood out. Take Jackson, let her learn from Parker her first year, then lock her in as your five for the next half decade.
WNBA Team Needs: Facilitator, Wing Player, Youthful Depth at Each Position
Player’s Best Fit: Wings, Dream, Lynx, Liberty
Sheldon only played in 13 games last season due to a leg injury. During the 2021-2022 season, Sheldon was sixth among point guards in adjusted+ rating and 48th overall. She was fourth among scoring point guards and 15th overall in RAPM and eighth within her position in eFG%. Sheldon is a tough, hard-nosed veteran player who has a relentless motor on both ends of the court. Her impact goes far beyond what the counting stats say. Having said that, her assist creation could use some work, but she has improved in that area throughout her career and will likely be fine in the WNBA. Sheldon can score at all three levels, even if her three-point game and midrange shooting could use some improvement.
That brings us to why she fits on this Wings team. Sheldon would show up and immediately fit into the vibe of this team, bringing some “veteran-like” energy and toughness to the up-and-coming Wings team. Using her with Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard in the pick-and-roll would leave defending teams with too many choices to guard, and previously-selected Jackson would find herself open quite a bit for looks and dribble-drives to the bucket. Sheldon is exactly the kind of player any team would want as its floor general, and her grittiness would jive well with Trammell’s culture.
WNBA Team Needs: Shooting, Size, Youthful Depth
Player’s Best Fit: Lynx, Dream, Sun, Sparks
This is an example of a player that I don’t necessarily see going first round, especially if all of these players go pro, but feel that teams believe she’s a first-round talent. Van Lith can score, coming to LSU having amassed 1,553 career points. Last season, Van Lith finished ninth among combo guards in adjusted+ rating and seventh in RAPM, but she also finished 84th in eFG%. Van Lith is a traditional volume scorer à la Arike Ogunbowale. She’s happy to shoot at all three levels, but her favorite shooting area is the midrange, from where she finished sixth at her position in two-point rate last season. If she’s truly going to be a success, she will need to offer more to the ever-evolving WNBA offense than the old-school midrange. Her three-point percentage (114th at her position last season), steals, and assists could all use a boost to offer more on the court. And expectedly, she’s struggling adjusting to coming off the bench and finding a rhythm in Kim Mulkey’s system this season.
To be sure, Van Lith is tough and as motivated as any player, never quitting on a play or her team. She may not be super efficient, but she is bold and is willing to lead her team by example and take the tough and necessary shots. Her defense is also good in spurts, but it’s her toughness and ball handling experience that may appeal most to head coach Stephanie White. Of all the players in this mock, I feel she can rise or fall the most. We will learn a lot about her this year playing with WNBA-caliber players in LSU’s system. Can she learn to share the ball? Can she become more offensively efficient without having to do everything for her team? Can she learn to facilitate better with so much offensive talent around her? These questions will be answered in short order.
WNBA Team Needs: Backcourt Defenders, Youthful Depth
Player’s Best Fit: Mercury, Dream, Sun, Liberty
I was pretty bullish on Kitley last year, and nothing in Kitley’s body of work with the Hokies in 2022-2023 proved me wrong. Kitley was her usual dominant self last season, finishing sixth in adjusted+ rating, seventh in RAPM, 10th in turnover percentage (TO%) and rim percentage, 12th in DREB% (and 15th overall), and fourth in two-point percentage in the midrange among all post players. Kitley has some of the best footwork in the draft class, using her 6’6” frame to her advantage. Plus, she has court vision and great touch for a big at the rim and in the midrange. It would help her to be more efficient (31st at her position in eFG%) and a better shot blocker (21st at her position in block percentage), but overall, she is one of the more polished bigs a team could select.
This year, she’s been especially terrific, with career highs in points per game and rebounds per game while tying her career high in blocks per game. However, there have been consistency issues, especially when Kitley relies too much on her fadeaway shot or lacks stronger positioning on the block. Comparisons to a less-athletic Elissa Cunane have been somewhat fair, and if Kitley is going to make a W team and stick, she will need to be more than a traditional post. I can also see a player like South Carolina’s Kamilla Cardoso going here due to her tantalizing size, but I have similar concerns how certain aspects of her game will translate at the next level.
While Kitley can’t stretch the floor to behind the arc, something that would help her WNBA chances tremendously, a team like the Liberty with plenty of perimeter scorers doesn’t need Kitley to do that. Assuming the Liberty at least re-sign Breanna Stewart, Kitley will either slide into the five or be an effective backup, working with other bigs who can stretch the floor and give her more room to operate in the post.
WNBA Team Needs: Wing Players (especially those who can score), Perimeter Shooting
Player’s Best Fit: Sparks, Liberty, Wings
This first round concludes with back-to-back Hokies in the form of Kitley and Amoore. Amoore was the delight of the 2022-2023 Hokies season, finishing 10th among scoring guards in adjusted+ rating and fifth in RAPM. Among those same guards, she finished 16th in assist percentage, 16th in turnover percentage, and eighth in three-point rate. Amoore has some of the best court vision of the guards in the class, and she excels in both the halfcourt and transition. Amoore’s calling card is her elite dribble drive penetration, and she can score with great frequency, even for someone her size. This season, Amoore has risen to the challenge. She’s ninth among all ball handlers in adjusted+ and fourth in RAPM.
To truly maximize her value, she could become a better three-point shooter (only 34th at her position in three-point shooting last season), but she should help add some perimeter scoring that this Sparks team lacked all last season. Additionally, her ball handling and pick-and-roll play will work wonders with Nneka Ogwumike, and she can take over should Jordin Canada seek greener pastures elsewhere.
All stats and accolades as of Dec. 6. Unless otherwise noted, all player and team stats are from university websites, Her Hoop Stats, Hoop Explorer, and WNBA.com.
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