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Will Caitlin Clark go pro? A WNBA Draft Lottery explainer – The Athletic
WNBA
Sunday’s 2024 WNBA Draft Lottery has potential to be known as the Caitlin Clark Lottery. But Clark, Iowa’s senior star guard, could also decide to return to college next year and wait to enter the WNBA until the 2025 season. Uncertainty surrounds a number of potential top picks, not only Clark, who is presumed to go No. 1 if she declares.
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Like last year, when they selected former South Carolina star Aliyah Boston at No. 1, the Indiana Fever enter Sunday with the best odds of obtaining the No. 1 pick (44.2 percent), followed by the Phoenix Mercury (27.6 percent), Los Angeles Sparks (17.8 percent) and Seattle Storm (10.4 percent). The lottery broadcast is scheduled to begin at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
In early October, Clark said she wasn’t ready to decide if she would return for a fifth season with the Hawkeyes in 2024-25 or turn pro. However, the Iowa star noted she was still going to “treat this year like this is my last year.”
“I’m going to go based off of my gut,” she said. “At the end of the day, that’s the biggest thing that I think I should trust. I’m going to know when I need to know if I want to stay or if I want to go.”
Clark’s scoring numbers have increased this season as she’s averaging a career-high 29.6 points per game on a 45.9 percent shooting from the field. Her 21.8 shot attempts per game are also the most she’s taken throughout her college career. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 and begin conference play Sunday ranked No. 4 in the latest Associated Press poll.
In terms of a decision timeline, in recent years, the WNBA and the Women’s National Basketball Players Association had agreed on an opt-in process for NCAA players who are eligible for the draft but could also return to school. If Clark and the Hawkeyes were to make a second consecutive Final Four in early April, Clark would presumably have 48 hours following the conclusion of their final game to renounce her remaining eligibility and declare for the draft.
“It’s not something I let weigh on me,” Clark said in October. “I’m focused on helping this team be the best team they can be, and when I know that decision, all of you will know. I think the biggest thing will be I’m just going to trust my gut and go with that.”
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In October, Excel Sports Management announced it had signed Clark to focus on her marketing and endorsement portfolio. Excel also represents three-time WNBA All-Star Arike Ogunbowale and three-time WNBA All-Star and Olympic gold medalist Napheesa Collier.
The 2024 WNBA Draft is scheduled for April 15.
Unlike the NBA, WNBA lottery odds are based on the cumulative record of the two most recent regular seasons. Despite winning eight more games in 2023 than they did in 2022, the Fever have a combined 18-58 record over that span and are guaranteed a top-three pick. Last year’s No. 1 pick was Indiana’s first in franchise history.
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The Mercury amassed a 24-52 record over the past two seasons, while the Sparks (30-46) and Storm (33-43) have the third- and fourth-worst records over that period. In the drawing itself, 14 balls numbered 1-14 will be placed in a lottery machine and mixed. Four balls then will be drawn to determine a four-digit combination, with the first four-digit number determining the No. 1 pick. The process will then be repeated for the second selection.
The teams with the worst record over the two-year period whose combinations did not come up for the top pick or the second pick will be awarded the third and fourth choices.
Yes. The New York Liberty won the 2020 and 2021 draft lotteries, though they traded the 2021 pick to the Storm, who in turn traded it to the Dallas Wings.
The Las Vegas Aces won three consecutive lotteries from 2017 to 2019. Twice, in 2017 and 2018, they entered the lottery with the best odds. In 2019, the Fever had a 44.2 percent chance of earning the top spot, but the Aces, with 27.6 percent odds, were the recipients of the top pick. They formed the foundation of their recent back-to-back championships via the draft, selecting Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young with top picks.
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The Storm also won consecutive lotteries ahead of the 2015 and 2016 WNBA drafts, selections they used on stars Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart. Seattle also picked first in both the 2001 and 2002 WNBA drafts, taking Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird. However, the WNBA Draft Lottery was first introduced for the 2002 event and was not used in determining the order in 2001.
The WNBA’s collective bargaining agreement stipulates, in short, that college players must be 22 years old during the year of the draft, have graduated or will graduate within three months of the draft from a four-year university, or have no remaining eligibility and have her original college class graduated and/or on track to graduate. International players, meanwhile, are eligible for selection if they will be at least 20 during the calendar year in which the given draft is held.
What complicates the situation, however, is that winter sport college athletes who competed during the 2020-21 NCAA season received an additional year of eligibility as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. That season was Clark’s freshman year, as it was to a number of other potential top WNBA prospects like Stanford’s Cameron Brink, LSU’s Angel Reese, UConn’s Paige Bueckers and South Carolina’s Kamilla Cardoso.
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With No. 1 WNBA Draft pick, Indiana Fever can change future with Caitlin Clark
(Photo of Caitlin Clark: David K Purdy / Getty Images)
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Ben Pickman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the WNBA and women’s college basketball. Previously, he was a writer at Sports Illustrated where he primarily covered women’s basketball and the NBA. He has also worked at CNN Sports and the Wisconsin Center for Journalism Ethics. Follow Ben on Twitter @benpickman