Sports
College Basketball Picks Against the Spread: Saturday, December 9 – The Messenger
Here are The Messenger’s expert picks against the spread for today’s top 10 men’s college basketball game. All times are in Eastern.
Seth Davis: The Illini are coming in hot, to say the least. They got a career-high 33 points from both Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask in Tuesday’s 98-89 win over FAU at Madison Square Garden. Points won’t come easy on the road against the nation’s second-most efficient defense, per KenPom, especially considering the Vols are still smarting from a three-game losing streak in late November. I expect a close, low-scoring affair, which means no one is covering a six-point spread. Illinois (+6)
Jeff Goodman: The Vols need this one, and I think they have the guys to slow down Domask. Tennessee (-6)
Seth Davis: This is the Big Maple’s big return game to his hometown, so you can expect Alabama to get a supersized helping of Zach Edey. The Boilermakers lost the No. 1 ranking this week because they fell in overtime at Northwestern, but they bounced back with a 19-point win over Iowa on Monday. Now they’ve had six days to prepare for the Crimson Tide, which has underperformed expectations thus far because of soft interior defense. That’s not a great deficiency to have against the Boilermakers. Purdue (-5)
Jeff Goodman: I’ll take Purdue and give 15 if need be. Edey is back home, and Alabama couldn’t stop Seth these days. Purdue (-5)
Seth Davis: The Drew Crew pulled off one of the most significant wins in program history Monday night when the Lopes beat San Diego State, 79-73, behind 23 points and eight rebounds from 6-foot-4 junior guard Ray Harrison. But picking games is all about spying the swinging pendulum, and that win will only make the Flames that much more amped to pull off a big win of their own. And they need a big win themselves after losing back-to-back games to FAU and Charleston following their 5-0 start. Liberty (-4)
Jeff Goodman: I saw Liberty twice last week, and the Flames lost to FAU and Charleston. GCU has some dudes with Harrison and Tyon Grant-Foster. I’ll gladly take the points. Grand Canyon (+4)
Seth Davis: Give Mike Woodson credit. He’s coaching an offensively challenged team that has been missing point guard Xavier Johnson the last two games, but the Hoosiers won both without him over Maryland and Michigan to start off 2-0 in the Big Ten. We still don’t know if Johnson will be available for this game, which means even if he does play he could be hobbled and rusty. Auburn is a speedy, high-octane team that can be undisciplined at times, a deficiency which proved costly on Sunday when the Tigers were shocked, 69-64, at Appalachian State. I’m guessing Bruce Pearl has been running some high-spirited practices this week, and the Hoosiers don’t have the legs or the firepower to keep up. Auburn (-6)
Jeff Goodman: Bruce Pearl is a hell of a coach, and he loves playing in Atlanta because he does a lot of damage recruiting in that area. Indiana hasn’t beaten anyone yet and this is a bounceback game for the Tigers losing at Appalachian State. Auburn (-6)
Seth Davis: When the Badgers got embarrassed, 72-59, at Providence on Nov. 14 to fall to 1-2 (the other loss was to Tennessee at home), no one was predicting that three weeks later they would be ranked No. 23 in the AP poll. Their six-game streak includes wins over Marquette (home) and Michigan State (road), and has featured four different leading scorers. Obviously this will be a step up in competition, especially since it’s in Tucson, but the Wildcats didn’t have the easiest time shaking Michigan State when the two met in Las Vegas on Thanksgiving, whereas the Badgers beat the Spartans by 13 in East Lansing. Wisconsin is battle-tested and knows how to control tempo. Arizona will win, but Wisconsin will cover. Wisconsin (+8.5)
Jeff Goodman: This does seem like a lot of points, even at McKale, so I’m with Seth on this one. The ’Cats win, but don’t cover. Wisconsin (+8.5)
Seth Davis: The Tigers staged another valiant comeback on Wednesday night when they overcame an 11-point second-half deficit against South Carolina and prevailed, 72-67, to remain undefeated. Brad Brownell only has one transfer amongst his top seven players (Joe Girard, a 6-foot-2 senior guard from Syracuse). His best player, 6-foot-10 senior forward P.J. Hall, is playing like an All-American after enjoying his first healthy offseason in three years. The Horned Frogs are 7-0, but their best win was by one point at Georgetown courtesy of a banked in 3-pointer that shouldn’t have counted because the shooter stepped out of bounds but wasn’t called for it. Clemson is TCU’s first top-100 KenPom opponent. It will show. Clemson (pick ’em)
Jeff Goodman: TCU’s schedule thus far has been beyond embarrassing, so the step up in competition is going to be too much for the Horned Frogs. Clemson (pick ’em)
Seth Davis: Porter Moser dipped into the transfer portal last spring with the intention of making his Sooners longer, deeper, and more athletic. The results have been in evidence during OU’s 8-0 start, which includes neutral-court wins over Iowa and USC and a 21-point home drubbing of Providence on Tuesday. The Razorbacks, however, are going to pose a much tougher test, especially since they got leading scorer Tramon Mark back from the back injury that forced him to sit out Arkansas’ win over Duke on Nov. 29. The Razorbacks had a bad stretch in November, losing three out of four games, but Eric Musselman is emphasizing an attacking mentality (the Hogs rank ninth nationally on KenPom in free throw rate) that will serve them well in this one. Arkansas (+4)
Jeff Goodman: This is a tough one for me, maybe the most difficult of the weekend slate. I’m going with the home team here, only because it almost looks too easy with the Razorbacks and the points. Oklahoma (-4)
Seth Davis: The metrics sure do love BYU. The 8-0 Cougars are No. 1 in the NET, No. 4 on KPI, No. 6 on KenPom, and No. 12 on BartTorvik. A big reason is their defense, which is 12th nationally in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. They also have five players averaging double-figure scoring, led by 6-foot-7 junior guard Jaxson Robinson’s 16.9 points per game. The Cougars will come back to Earth during their first season in the Big 12, but I don’t expect them to have much trouble with Utah, even though this is a rivalry game on the road. The Utes are 6-2 and they’re the tallest team in the country, but their soft perimeter defense (309th nationally in 3-point D) will be their undoing. BYU (-4)
Jeff Goodman: Rivalry game. Gimme the home team, especially against an undefeated BYU club that’s been playing above its head. Utah (+4)
Seth Davis: Two years ago, these two played a classic in Pauley Pavilion, with the Bruins prevailing in overtime, 86-77. Since then, UCLA has lost every one of the players who took the floor that night, and Villanova lost its coach, Jay Wright. It looked like Kyle Neptune had this team in a good place when it won the Battle 4 Atlantis, but now the Wildcats have lost three straight to Saint Joseph’s, Drexel and Kansas State. Villanova takes a little more than half its shots from 3-point range, but it’s 205th nationally in 3-point percentage (32.3) and 343rd in 3-point defense (36.3). The Bruins, meanwhile, have a ton of new players, several of whom are international, and though the team fared well at the Maui Invitational, it was fortunate to escape UC Riverside at home last Thursday, 66-65. Mick Cronin has had nine days to get his team prepared for this one. They will probably win, but if they lose it will be close. UCLA (+5)
Jeff Goodman: As long as it’s not against a Big 5 team, I’m going with ’Nova. Yes, even without Justin Moore. Villanova (-5)
Seth Davis: Surprise, the Zags are good again. Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard, a 6-foot junior point guard, has slid seamlessly into the role once occupied by his brother Andrew. Nembhard is one of five players averaging double-figure scoring for a squad that ranks 13th nationally in scoring at 87.3 points per game. Washington is better than it has been in recent years (all three losses have all come against top-50 KenPom teams), but even at home, I think the Huskies will be overmatched. Gonzaga (-5)
Jeff Goodman: I trust the Zags, even against an improved Huskies team. Nembhard will be the best guard on the floor. Gonzaga (-5)
Seth Davis: 2-3
Jeff Goodman: 1-4
Seth Davis: 5-5
Jeff Goodman: 3-7