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NBA In-Season Tournament odds, expert picks, schedule: Previewing the knockout stage – The Athletic
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The Athletic has live coverage of Lakers vs Suns in the quarterfinal of the NBA In-Season Tournament.
The inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament has been faaaaaaantastic! According to Sports Business Journal, there was a double-digit increase in viewership over Tuesday and Friday games in November from last season. Opinions of the colorful courts were trending on social media. Personally, I think they should place the 3-D graphics that look like you’re falling into a hole, but that’s just me. Scoring at the end of games was boosted due to the importance of point differential. Players seemed engaged, talking about wanting to bag $500K and play in Las Vegas.
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After a month of group play, we have arrived at the tournament’s knockout stage, where the top eight teams will compete for the NBA Cup. The teams will play in their respective home markets on Monday and Tuesday, while the semifinals and final on Thursday and Saturday will be in Las Vegas. I will preview the rest of the tournament in this piece.
Boston defeated Brooklyn, Toronto and Chicago while losing to Orlando in group play. Indiana went undefeated with victories over Cleveland, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Detroit.
Indiana scored the most points in the tournament with 546, which isn’t a surprise since they are first in offensive pace and offensive efficiency on the season. Only Milwaukee scored more than 500 points in group play. Indiana also allowed 507 points, which isn’t a surprise since they are dead-last in defensive efficiency on the season. Only Atlanta allowed more than 500 points during group play. And therein lies the issue for Indiana.
Boston is among the best and most balanced teams in the league, sixth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. It did clobber Indiana, 155-104 earlier in the season, but that game was in Boston, Kristaps Porzingis played in that one and Tyrese Haliburton did not play. Porzingis is questionable for Monday’s affair, and this game is in Indiana, where the Pacers are 6-5 while the Celtics are 6-4 on the road compared to 9-0 at home.
Sacramento defeated Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Minnesota and Golden State in group play. New Orleans lost to Houston but notched wins over Dallas, Denver and the Clippers.
Sacramento is 12th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency on the season. During group play, the point differential was +30, scoring a respectable 483 points while allowing 452. Six teams in the tournament had a higher point differential.
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New Orleans had a +33 point differential, scoring 463 points and allowing 430. These teams played twice two weeks ago, with both games in New Orleans. The Pelicans won both, 129-93 and 117-112. The crazy thing is that New Orleans wasn’t at full strength for either contest. Now they have CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III back in the rotation.
This game, though, is in Sacramento, where the Kings are 5-2 while the Pelicans are 3-5 on the road.
Milwaukee and New York were in the same group. Milwaukee went undefeated, beating New York, Charlotte, Washington and Miami. New York defeated Washington, Miami and Charlotte outside their lone loss to Milwaukee.
Milwaukee was the only team other than Indiana to score more than 500 points during group play. New York, on the other hand, was the only team not to allow 400 points.
Milwaukee is fifth in offensive efficiency while being only 21st in defensive efficiency. New York is 16th in offensive efficiency while being sixth in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee is third in offensive pace while New York is dead-last. The styles could not be any more different.
This game is in Milwaukee, where the Bucks are 8-1. New York has a more than respectable 6-4 record on the road.
In the lone meeting between these teams, Milwaukee won, 110-105, at home. Milwaukee shot 20-of-39 from downtown. Can they replicate that? New York is 10th-best in 3-point field goal percentage defense.
These teams were also in the same group, with the Lakers going undefeated. In addition to beating Phoenix, the Lakers notched victories over Memphis, Portland and Utah. Phoenix had wins over Utah, Portland and Memphis. The Lakers defeated the Suns, 122-119, during group play. The teams also played in the season’s second game, one that the Lakers also won, 100-95. Devin Booker missed both of those contests, and he’s currently dealing with an ankle injury. His availability would be huge for Phoenix.
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Los Angeles had a massive +74 point differential during group play, the highest mark by a wide margin. They scored 494 points while allowing 420. Phoenix was at +34.
Phoenix is 17th in defensive efficiency and 10th in offensive efficiency, and that’s with all of the injuries they’ve endured. Los Angeles is 10th in defensive efficiency, but their issues have derived on the offensive end, posting a 23rd mark. Inconsistencies have plagued them. Over the last five games, they have alternated wins and losses for a 2-3 record.
Los Angeles is 7-2 at home, but Phoenix is an impressive 7-3 on the road while being only 4-5 at home.
IF Devin Booker is healthy, I like the Suns to go into Los Angeles and upset the Lakers. With no Booker, I like the Lakers.
While the Pelicans have added McCollum and Murphy to the rotation, The Beam shall be lit with a Kings win.
Even if Porzingis doesn’t play, the Celtics are still one of the best and most balanced teams in the league. Haliburton is amazing and the Pacers offense is so explosive, but the defense is too porous.
I like the Knicks to go into Milwaukee and turn that M upside down and walk away with the W. Defense travels and Jalen Brunson is playing very well right now. Shooting over 50 percent from downtown is unlikely to be replicated by Milwaukee.
So that leaves Phoenix or Los Angeles vs. Sacramento in the West and New York vs. Boston in the East.
I like both a Phoenix team with Booker or Los Angeles to beat Sacramento in Vegas. Boston should take care of business over everyone, making them the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament champs.
(Photo of Jayson Tatum: Rich Storry / Getty Images)
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Stan Son is a contributor to The Athletic. He enjoys long walks on the beach while strumming his guitar to the beat of the ball bouncing off the hardwood. Ball is life. Follow Stan on Twitter @Stan_Son