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College Basketball Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday December 6 – VSiN
By Adam Burke (VSiN.com)
We have a nice, round number with 60 games on Wednesday, though we also had an 8 a.m. PT start time, so things got underway very, very early. The South Alabama/Mercer matchup was the only one to start before 3 p.m. ET, so we have plenty of time for the rest of the card to get everything sorted out.
Both games were very close yesterday with a winner and a loser. It is amazing with the sheer number of games and teams that so many of these games feel like they fall close to the number. Today is the one-month mark for the college basketball season and the article and it feels like there have been a lot of sweats already. Let’s see what December 6 has in store.
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Here are some thoughts on the December 6 card (odds from DraftKings):
7 p.m. ET
This is a little rare in terms of the article – I like a marquee matchup. Memphis is on the road to take on VCU and first-year head coach Ryan Odom has to get his Rams back on track after a loss to Norfolk State. Odom’s Rams are just 4-4 to begin the season and there are some major areas of concern going into this game against the Tigers.
Let’s start with turnovers. VCU gives the ball away a lot. Their 22.8% TO% ranks 350th in the nation per Bart Torvik, whose team stats only include games against Division I opponents. VCU also doesn’t possess the havoc defense that was made so famous by Shaka Smart and carried over to some degree by Mike Rhoades, whose teams finished in the top 10 in TO% for five straight seasons before he went to Penn State.
This year’s VCU crew ranks 290th in the nation in TO% on defense, so a lot has changed. Memphis has a top 100 TO% on defense and has about a league average TO% on offense, so they should be able to add some extra possessions here.
The Tigers have played a grueling schedule that Torvik ranks 14th and KenPom ranks 28th. VCU has not played any outright bad teams like Memphis has, but they’ve only played one top-65 team per Torvik’s rankings. What has hurt Memphis the last two games is a lack of turnovers and a barrage of 3s. Villanova and Ole Miss combined to go 24-of-57 and Memphis was outscored 33-9 on 3s in the three-point loss to the Rebels. VCU isn’t a good shooting team from outside, so I’m less concerned about that. Also, Nova and Ole Miss are top-100 teams in TO% on offense. VCU is not.
The Rams started strong on defense, but they’ve allowed at least one point per possession in each of the last four games. Memphis will be the most athletic team that they have faced and they have a very short bench. I think this is a good bounce back spot for Memphis facing a lesser offense with turnover problems.
Pick: Memphis -2
7 p.m. ET
Both teams are coming off of losses as Penn State and Maryland meet in College Park. Maryland’s loss is way more palatable with a defeat at the hands of the Hoosiers on the road in their Big Ten opener. Penn State lost at home to Bucknell as more than a 20-point favorite.
But, the market likes Penn State a little bit here and I can see why. Maryland is 4-4 with wins over Mount St. Mary’s, UMBC, South Alabama, and Rider. Penn State, while not on the level of Indiana or Villanova, is better than those four teams. The degree of difficulty to win by margin increases when a team is shooting 22.7% from 3 like Maryland is.
Penn State PG Kanye Clary should be healthier after leaving the loss to VCU and playing with a brace on his arm in the game against Bucknell. He and Qudus Wahab have played a nice two-man game and are easily the stars on this squad, but first-year head coach Mike Rhoades may have found something bringing Ace Baldwin Jr. in off the bench.
Rhoades talked a lot about shot selection after the Bucknell loss, so the Nittany Lions should be looking for smarter shots in this game. They’re shooting 54.3% on 2s, so they’ve at least done well in that department. They’re not making many 3s and Maryland defends the 3-point line well, so I think that will force Penn State to play more to their strengths.
Pick: Penn State +7.5
7 p.m. ET
This handicap feels a lot to me like Monday night’s with Cal Poly and Oregon State. This is going to be a slow-paced game. Davidson is 293rd in the nation in adjusted tempo per Bart Torvik and Campbell is 355th. Slow games make it harder to cover big spreads because it requires well above average efficiency on both ends of the floor from the favorite.
In this one, I like that Campbell can get the ball inside. They’ve got a 48.6% shot share on Close Twos, which is a sign of their slow-paced offense, but also a sign of their offensive scheme to try and get high-percentage looks at the rim. To me, that gives them enough offensive punch to stay in this one. They’re only shooting 54.4% on Close Two shot attempts, but Davidson has allowed over a 60% FG% in that split, whereas Campbell has defended the rim well.
Davidson shoots a lot of 3s, which can be a bit of a high-variance offensive strategy. Given that Campbell has defended the 3-point line extremely well to this point, hopefully they can sustain it. Even with some regression likely, I still think Davidson really has to go off to cover this number with the expected pace of this one.
Pick: Campbell +14
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