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College basketball rankings: Arizona ascends to No. 1 after upset-filled week – The Athletic
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What a weekend of upsets. This is what happens when teams start to leave the friendly confines of their home arenas. Life on the road is tough!
In this week’s Top 25, Arizona’s rebounding is off to a historic start, Kansas had a smart defensive plan for UConn, Houston’s ball-screen defense is awesome again, North Carolina is spurtable and one of the best offenses in the country is thriving with a Division II transfer.
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Your weekly friendly reminder: The setup of this season’s Top 25 is that I’ll give nuggets on an unspecified number of teams each week. So if a team appears in the table but not the text below, that’s why.
Arizona is the best defensive rebounding team in the country. One reason for its defensive improvement is an increased emphasis on forcing turnovers and also a better ability to block shots, which has helped the Wildcats rank fourth in adjusted defense and third in raw points per possession allowed. (I’ll write about some tweaks another time.) But let’s focus on history today. It’s probably way too early to throw this stat out because of sample size and strength of schedule, but if the season were to end today, Arizona would be the best defensive rebounding team in the history of KenPom data, which dates back to the 1998-99 season.
The Wildcats pulled off an offensive rebound shutout against Colgate on Saturday. The box score technically credited Colgate with one offensive rebound, but it was incorrect. Watch the clip below. Parker Jones’ offensive rebound came after the buzzer.
It’s the only time in last 25 seasons Colgate has been shut out on the offensive glass. If corrected, it’ll be the fourth time it’s happened in a game this season. It was also Colgate’s lowest points per possession (0.73) since Dec. 22, 2014. Five of Arizona’s seven opponents have had their lowest efficiency game against this defense.
The Wildcats will have a chance to prove their standing in the next three weeks. They host Wisconsin, then play Purdue in Indianapolis, Alabama in Phoenix and Florida Atlantic in Las Vegas.
The way to beat Purdue is with awesome guards, especially working out of ball screens. Northwestern got it done on Friday in overtime, 92-88, behind 31 points and nine assists from Boo Buie. Northwestern’s strategy was to use Edey’s man as a screener — both on ball and off — and in dribble handoffs to take advantage of Edey’s drop coverage. Then in overtime, the Wildcats found a matchup they liked in Fletcher Loyer. Buie had cooked Loyer once in the second half on a switch, so Chris Collins sought that switch on three straight halfcourt possessions in overtime. It led to a kick out 3, a dribble penetration that forced help and a dumpoff to Blake Preston — he was fouled and made one of two — and then Buie scoring this bucket below that turned out to be the biggest of the game.
That’s six points in three possessions. Purdue likely left Evanston feeling like its on-ball defense needs to be better, and that scoring guards like Buie are what Boilermakers should fear facing once March comes.
Marquette’s biggest weakness is on the boards. The Golden Eagles are allowing an offensive rebound on one of every three misses, and their defensive rebounding rate ranks 293rd in college hoops. Only five high-majors rank lower. Wisconsin took advantage on Saturday, grabbing 15 offensive rebounds and outscoring Marquette 18-2 in second-chance points. Marquette’s offense was also in a funk, struggling with Wisconsin’s sagging defense, but the big picture concern for this team is rebounding. Marquette has now been outscored 38-6 in second-chance points in its two losses.
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Kansas used a switching defense to really confuse Connecticut on Friday night. The Huskies are one of the best screening teams in the country, and it’s their off-ball screening that often leads to a breakdown they’ll take advantage of, so KU’s strategy was to point switch a bunch off ball.
“I don’t see how you guard them if you don’t switch,” Bill Self said after when I asked him about it. “There’s so many handoffs, short passes, quick ball screens, quick fades, there’s so many things that are done one through four that I think it would be really hard to stay connected.”
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The Huskies still had a chance because of the incredible shot-making of Tristen Newton — he made a career-best six 3s and scored 31 points — but it was a great sign for the Jayhawks’ defense.
UConn’s record streak of 24 nonconference wins by double digits came to an end with the loss to Kansas. One other streak that ended was scoring at least 1.09 points per possession, which the Huskies had done in 19 straight games. As illustrated above, Kansas played an awesome game defensively. And what’s that look like on a per possession basis against UConn? The Huskies still scored 1.08 points per trip. This is a really hard team to guard. North Carolina gets the next shot on Tuesday in the Jimmy V Classic, which is the game of the week.
Kelvin Sampson’s defenses always play with awesome effort and are really good in rotations. This edition is elite. Where it really shows up is in ball-screen defense. Sampson takes a lot of pride in his team’s execution there — he grades his centers every game on getting to what he calls the line of scrimmage in pick-and-roll coverage — and then Sampson schools his players off the ball on their responsibilities. Xavier was the latest opponent to struggle against the coverage, and the ability to recover is what makes it exhausting to face:
Houston is allowing 0.609 points per possession on plays that end with a ball-screen action (including passes), per Synergy, and that’s sixth-best in college hoops. Rutgers is the only high-major above the Cougars.
Florida Atlantic is playing beautiful basketball since its loss to Bryant. The Owls are scoring 1.29 points per possession since that loss, and their offense has been the second-best in college hoops from an adjusted efficiency standpoint during that span, according to Bart Torvik’s sorting tool. You could argue no one has been better on the offensive end during that stretch, because FAU has played a quality schedule over the last five. Its opponents have an average 66.6 ranking at KenPom. Baylor, the one team in front of FAU in adjusted offense during that time span, has played four opponents with an average 203.75 ranking.
Gonzaga is hard to guard this year because of its balanced scoring. There’s no one to cheat off. The Zags have five players averaging in double figures, and their two best shooters might be their sixth- and seventh-leading scorers in Dusty Stromer and Ben Gregg. Those two made six 3s in the 89-76 win over USC on Saturday, and Gonzaga had six players score in double figures in that game. Leading scorer Anton Watson nearly made it seven — he scored nine points.
The Tar Heels might be the most spurtable team in college hoops. It’s a throwback Roy Williams-type team in that regard. Tennessee and Florida State suffered this past week from that spurtability. The Heels ran away from Tennessee with a 31-11 stretch that spanned about six minutes, then turned a 12-point FSU lead into a 14-point advantage of its own with a 30-4 run that lasted just over eight minutes in Saturday’s comeback win.
We’ll have a great feel for the Heels after the next three — UConn, Kentucky and Oklahoma, all played on neutral floors. (Although Charlotte won’t feel so neutral for Oklahoma.)
The Illini have the best 2-point defense in college hoops, limiting opponents to 36.3 percent inside the arc. Illinois is also elite at running teams off the 3-point line. Most defenses that hold opponents to a low percentage from 2 do so by blocking a lot of shots. Out of the last 24 teams to lead the country in 2-point field goal percentage, 2019 UC Irvine is the only one in KenPom’s database to rank outside the top 100 in block rate. The Illini rank 130th in block rate.
What the Illini try to do is make teams shoot long 2s by not allowing spot-up jumpers and then keeping the ball in front.
It’s an ideal analytical approach, and it’s working. Opponents are shooting just 21.2 percent on mid-range jumpers, per Synergy.
Niko Medved loves to flood the floor with shooting and skill. His last team that made the NCAA Tournament was built around a playmaking four who was a matchup nightmare in David Roddy. Roddy was 6-foot-6 and 255 pounds, and while he usually played the four, Medved would also run out small lineups with him at the five. This team’s star is fifth-year point guard Isaiah Stevens, but Medved found a mini-Roddy in Joel Scott, who was the Division II Player of the Year last season at Black Hills State in South Dakota. Scott is not the beast Roddy was — he’s 6-7, 225 — but Medved is also using him all over the floor and tries to hunt for mismatches in the post. He’s really good in these dribble-downs with the Rams spacing and cutting around him:
Last week the Rams entered the Top 25 because of their defense, holding Creighton to 69 points. They made a climb this week because of their offense — sixth-best in adjusted efficiency — which scored 88 and 86 in wins over high-majors Colorado and Washington. The spacing and ability to hunt mismatches is what makes Colorado State’s offense so good.
Below is Creighton’s shot chart in an 89-60 win over Nebraska. 
The Bluejays are now attempting over half their shots from 3, and the gravity of their shooters and their spacing leads to a lot of easy shots inside the arc. The 48-point dud against Colorado State on Thanksgiving appears to be an outlier. This is a really good offense that plays to the numbers.
Reed Sheppard was everyone’s favorite topic this week after he had 21 points and four assists in the blowout win over Miami and everyone realized his efficiency numbers were insane. It even started some one-and-done talk for UK’s sixth man. Sheppard started on Saturday against UNC Wilmington with DJ Wagner out, and the Wildcats finally cooled off, but not Sheppard. He scored 25 points on 17 shots, which actually brought his efficiency numbers down. He’s shooting 61.1 percent from 3, 63 percent inside the arc and 100 percent at the free-throw line. His 81.3 true shooting percentage is the best in college hoops.
Oklahoma is playing much faster this year offensively. Its average possession lasts 15.9 seconds, compared to 18.1 last year, per KenPom. The Sooners are scoring 21.1 points per game in transition, up from 11.8 last season, per Synergy.
BYU is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, joining Arizona and Connecticut as the only teams that rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. What makes the Cougars sort of an outlier is they shoot a lot of 3s, a rarity among really good offensive rebounding teams. BYU will send everyone to the glass, and a combination of good team size and the pursuit makes it tough to grab a defensive rebound when a 3 goes up:
The undefeated Tigers could be a dark horse ACC contender. Last year, they finished tied for third in the league but missed the NCAA Tournament because of a crummy nonconference performance, which included losses to South Carolina and Loyola Chicago, both sub-200 teams. The Tigers are 7-0 this year with a couple solid nonconference wins against Boise State and at Alabama, and they have three more possible resume-builders against South Carolina, TCU and Memphis. The Tigers returned most of their core, and Brad Brownell was smart in the transfer portal, targeting a shooter and landing Syracuse transfer Joseph Girard. Girard is shooting 46 percent from 3 and buried six treys and scored 25 points in Sunday’s ACC opener against Pitt.
Tennessee is the lone three-loss team in these rankings, but Rick Barnes gets credit for his scheduling. The Volunteers rank fourth at KenPom in strength of schedule, and the teams in front of them are Florida A&M, Texas Southern and Eastern Washington — teams that need be buy-game opponents for their budgets. Marquette is the only other high-major in the top 10 of SOS, at No. 10.
Virginia has a defensive star in Ryan Dunn. Dunn ranks ninth in steals rate and 15th in block rate. He is the only player to rank in the top 20 in both in college basketball. In fact, among the top 20 in each statistic, none of the other 38 players rank in the top 100 in the other statistic.
The Badgers beat Marquette by limiting Oso Ighodaro, who has been one of the hardest centers to contain in college hoops. Wisconsin held Ighodaro to a season-low five points and forced a season-high four turnovers by the big man.
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Wisconsin went under on all dribble hand-offs between Tyler Kolek and Ighodaro, and then made sure Ighodaro saw a lot of bodies on his rolls.
The Badgers were willing to give us some 3-point looks but really tried to limit easy ones in the paint. It was Marquette’s worst offensive output all season.
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Wisconsin’s win over Marquette gives reason to believe in the Badgers
The Frogs finally played someone of note and won 84-83 at Georgetown. It’s hard to take away much from their games so far, but it looks like even without Mike Miles Jr. and Damion Baugh, they’re still playing fast. Their average possession length of 13.5 seconds ranks second nationally, and they lead the country in transition points per game (30.9), per Synergy.
Dropped out: Duke, Villanova, Auburn, Mississippi State
Keeping an eye on: San Diego State, James Madison, Nevada, Princeton, Northwestern, Mississippi, Indiana State, Alabama
(Top photo of KJ Lewis: Chris Coduto / AP)
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C.J. Moore, a staff writer for The Athletic, has been on the college basketball beat since 2011. He has worked at Bleacher Report as the site’s national college basketball writer and also covered the sport for CBSSports.com and Basketball Prospectus. He is the coauthor of “Beyond the Streak,” a behind-the-scenes look at Kansas basketball’s record-setting Big 12 title run. Follow CJ on Twitter @cjmoorehoops