High Hopes: What to expect from 5-star freshmen this college basketball season – 247Sports

Impact freshmen still are and always will be a major part of college basketball. However, in the era of the Transfer Portal and extra eligibility due to Covid, the game is the oldest it has been in quite some time. Even the traditional one and done factories are rolling out fourth- and fifth-year players to help supplement their usual influx of five-star talent.
While the high school class of 2022 still produced 15 one-and-done talents from a group of 25 five-star prospects many of them had minimal impact. Guys like Nick Smith Jr., Dariq Whitehead, GG Jackson and others were able to show enough for the NBA to take a chance on them, but they didn’t necessarily make their teams all that much better. Of the 10 2022 five-stars who are back for a second year only two — Duke’s Kyle Filipowski and Syracuse transfer JJ Starling — scored in double figures.
We don’t present this information to bash the class of 2022. No, they are to properly set expectations because the class of 2023 probably isn’t quite as good as the class of 2022 and we decided to go conservative in our final ranking of the incoming freshman class. In fact, only 17 players in the class finished ranked as five-stars. On top of that, No. 1 Ron Holland and No. 7 Matas Buzelis chose to go the G League route.
By the time the year is over there will undoubtedly be a few players who were on the cusp of five-star status that will prove they should have been. There will also be a few that will look like five-stars were ambitious. Also, because of how the NBA Draft works there will still end up being a large number of players who end up getting taken in the draft after just one year in school.
With all of the that in mind and the season set to tip off on Monday, we take a look at what can be reasonably expected of each of the incoming five-star prospects:
247Sports rank: No. 2
What to expect: The Trojans are ranked No. 21 in the preseason AP Top 25. And if Isaiah Collier can be at his best with a shot-making guard like Boogie Ellis and some experienced front court players alongside him, then this feels like it could end up being a bit low. While our tendency is to be a bit more measured and reserved when it comes to freshman expectations, we do think that Collier is a guy capable of standing up to the pressure. He was spectacular at times during USC’s summer trip overseas and he’s got the size and strength that should allow his downhill, physical style of playmaking to translate. If he can be a consistent threat as a jump shooter, then he could be the most impactful first year player in the country.
At a minimum, he’s going to he extremely difficult to keep out of the lane and he should be one of the very best passers in the country. One other thing is for sure, there probably won’t be another freshman in the country who will have more of an opportunity to play with the ball in his hands from day one.
247Sports rank: No. 3
What to expect: Justin Edwards is a smooth and polished wing scorer who is wired to get buckets with efficiency. At about 6-foot-7, he’s got deep range, is very effective in catch-and-shoot situations and understands how to use his long and angular frame to create separation on decisive one and two dribble drives.
Where things could get interesting with Edwards is that he’s not the type of guy to dominate the ball or really hunt for shots. He plays within a system. If he’s with guards that are looking to get theirs, then his impact can be really limited. What we mean to say is that playing with guys like Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham and DJ Wagner — all guys who will hunt their own offense — could be an adjustment for him.
247Sports rank: No. 4
What to expect: The highest ranked player to ever sign with the Buffaloes during the era of internet recruiting coverage, Cody Williams is a long, rangy and quite skilled 6-foot-8 forward who has all of the tools to be a great player and future lottery pick. The big question is just how ready he is to carry a team on a nightly basis and how long it will take for all of his tools to manifest into numbers as a freshman?
Playing for his head coach Tad Boyle during the summer with USA Basketball, Williams had some up and down moments and by nature he’s a bit quiet and unassuming. So, it’s going to be on the Colorado staff to really push him to his full capabilities. Don’t be surprised if he comes out of the gate  a little slow. But he’s got too much talent to not figure it out and have some spectacular nights. Once his full potential is unlocked, the things he can do as a ball handler, scorer and playmaker at his size are scary.
247Sports rank: No. 5
What to expect: Frankly, it’s not easy to paint a picture of what fans of the Kentucky Wildcats or college basketball in general can expect out of Aaron Bradshaw. That’s without even taking into consideration that the timetable for the seven-footer’s return from a summer foot surgery is still unknown.
When healthy, Bradshaw has all of the physical tools in the world. He’s a mover who can run and has above average lateral agility for a guy his size. He is rim protector, a lob catcher and has proven that he’s got touch on jump hooks and even some face-up jumpers. When he’s rolling, he’s something else. At the same time, he can fade in and out of games and play away from his strengths at times. Missing out on the summer and trying to play catch up as a freshman, even when you are as talented as Bradshaw, isn’t easy, so it’s probably best to be cautiously optimistic about what he could provide during what’s likely to be his only season in Lexington.
247Sports rank: No. 6
What to expect: One thing is for sure when it comes to DJ Wagner: He won’t be lacking any confidence when he takes the floor and he’s going to get his shots up. He is accustomed to being a dominant force when it comes to scoring the basketball and he is the type of guy who welcomes the pressure of making the big play when the lights are brightest.
He’s going to be given some opportunity to run the show at times and how he handles the transition from scorer to playmaker and scorer is going to be very key to how well he performs. Ideally, he’d be best suited playing alongside a more traditional/pure point guard type, but that’s just not the way John Calipari’s Wildcats are set up. He’s too competitive and accomplished to not have some really impressive moments. It’ll just be a matter of how efficient he can be. If his first step is as deadly in college as it was in high school, then look out.
247Sports rank: No. 8
What to expect: If you want to talk about guys who have been generating a serious buzz since arriving on campus, then Ja’Kobe Walter may be at the top of the list. Even as the No. 8 player in the nation, he’s been getting talked about as the type of guy who could end up outplaying his lofty ranking. That’s how excited folks in Baylor and some NBA scouts are about his preseason play.
Walter is a big and strong shot-maker from deep who also has the tools to be an elite defender. Because he’s already got college-level strength, he’s ready for the physicality he’ll face in the Big 12 and he’s got a quiet confidence about him that should serve him well. Again, while we want to try and be conservative when it comes to these guys, we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Walter ends up at the top — or very near it — of the heap when it comes to points per game by freshmen. And he could even challenge for All-Big 12 honors.
247Sports rank: No. 9
What to expect: A McDonald’s All-American just like everybody else on this list ahead of him, Stephon Castle is a jumbo guard at 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds who brings a lot of versatility to the floor. As a point, his size allows him to see over the top of defenses and his strength allows him to play bully-ball when he needs to. At the same time, he can play off the ball and has the versatility to defend any position along the perimeter.
Castle’s bread and butter is his ability to get to the rim, score through contact and then get on hot streaks with his jump shot. Early reviews out of Storrs have been very positive and he seems to be wired the right way to succeed playing for a coach like Dan Hurley who demands excellence while giving freedom. He’s the preseason Big East Freshman of the Year and UConn is expecting him to play to that level isn’t unfair.
247Sports rank: No. 10
What to expect: Originally headed to Duke, Mackenzie Mgbako changed his mind in the spring and (much to the delight of Hoosier Nation) ended up choosing Mike Woodson’s program. Listed at 6-foot-8 and 217 pounds, Mgbako is probably a bit more of a natural face-up four man who is going to get a lot of chances to play on the wing. How quickly he can make that transition will be crucial for him and his production.
Mgbako is already comfortable letting it fly from deep. And when he gets hot from out there, he can put up points in a hurry. The biggest keys for him are going to be consistency, shot selection and not forgetting how he easy he can make the game for himself by using his size around the rim. His first exhibition game was a promising start and the Hoosiers have a chance to play big without sacrificing athleticism if he can be a reliable wing defender.
247Sports rank: No. 11
What to expect: There is no doubting whether or not Xavier Booker is talented enough to end up making an impact for Tom Izzo. At 6-foot-11, he can run. He can protect the rim and he’s got some legitimate skill and shooting ability. On the other hand, he needs to get stronger, he needs to be more aggressive and he is going to have to learn to play with a bit (well a lot really) more physicality.
Most likely, Booker is going to face some early struggles and he probably isn’t going to see the type of minutes that fans would generally expect from a guy ranked so highly. If he locks in, continues to focus on the long haul and builds trust with Izzo, then he could be primed to be a difference maker come March — even if he’s coming off the bench.
247Sports rank: No. 12
What to expect: Originally a member of the class of 2024, Elliot Cadeau reclassified to the class of 2023. If you’ve followed us much, you know that reclassifications make us nervous because no matter how talented you are, skipping a year is hard. Even more so for a guy who is going to be relied upon to be a high-level decision maker. In this case, we are actually pretty confident that Cadeau is built to handle the jump.
He is strong, sturdy, super explosive with his first step and he’s got sublime feel for finding open teammates. He is going to benefit from joining a program that has some experienced guards – perhaps most notably RJ Davis – so that he can be eased in and given some time to adjust to college. That being said, we fully believe Cadeau is going to be playing major minutes before too long and that Hubert Davis and his squad will have the capability of playing at a different speed when he leads the charge. Don’t be surprised if he leads all freshmen in assists.
247Sports rank: No. 13
What to expect: One of the most athletic freshmen in the country, Omaha Biliew also projects as one of the most versatile defenders. At 6-foot-8 with length and tremendous quickness, he can really cover a lot of ground and can switch up and down a lineup. He’s got a motor that matches his quickness and tremendous instincts, too. In fact, much of his ranking was due to just how good he can be on the defensive side of the ball.
On the offensive end, he’s more of a slasher who sometimes settles too much for deep jump shots. He’s got potential as a shooter. But in order to be the best version of himself as a freshman, he needs to play in attack the rim mode in the half court and run the floor for lobs in transition.
247Sports rank: No. 14
What to expect: McCain arrives at Duke as a very polished guard prospect who doesn’t exactly have many weaknesses when it comes to skill and understanding of the game. He won a ton during high school and is a natural competitor on both ends of the floor. He’s also an excellent communicator with huge personality and the ability to knock down shots off the dribble.
McCain does have some athletic limitations. And while he is very good at navigating ball screens, he’s not quite a full-time point guard making him a bit of a tweener at his size. Something to keep an eye on for McCain is that despite being a guard, he’s a big-time rebounder and he’ll be able to help out on the glass even though he’s not the biggest guy around.
What to expect: When it comes to international players — especially those that we’ve not really been able to see in person — there are always some nerves when it comes to predicting what type of player they should be. Watching the film on Aday Mara, though, goes a long way towards calming any nerves.
At seven-feet-plus, he looks to have tremendous touch, feel and skill in the lane. His passing for a big man out of either the high or low post is impressive and he looks like he’ll be able to score over either shoulder. It’s obvious that he’ll have to adjust to the physicality of college ball. While he’s not a burner from end-to-end, he does run with purpose. We would expect that there be some ramp up time for him, but the size and skill he has should allow him to be pretty problematic for opposing teams once he gets settled in and Mick Cronin and his staff figure out the best way to deploy him.
247Sports rank: No. 16
What to expect: First of all, not many of the incoming five-stars could have picked a place that fits their playing style better than Auburn fits Aden Holloway. Though he’s not the biggest floor general around, his listing at 178 pounds is encouraging because that means he’s put on a lot of needed bulk to help protect him as he hurls his body around to make plays for himself and others.
This kid isn’t going to back down from anybody. He’s going to let it fly from deep and he’s going to use his skill and ability to shift defenders via change of pace or direction to get into the lane. Bruce Pearl loves guards that can go and get theirs and that’s what Holloway does best. Even though he’s added some bulk, don’t be surprised if there are some times where he gets a bit overwhelmed physically. As much as he will be given freedom offensively, he will have to improve.
247Sports rank: No. 17
What to expect: While TJ Power ended up as a five-star prospect thanks to a strong senior season, but just how much he’ll be able to help Duke out as a freshman is a question. It isn’t that he’s not capable, rather it’s a matter of finding enough minutes for him to really showcase what he can do.
Sophomore Mark Mitchell played over 27 minutes per game as a freshman and he’s likely going to play more than that this year. Considering that Power is probably best suited to play as a potential floor-stretching small-ball four early in his career, he’s going to have to make the most of the minutes he does get. He can add some real value if he comes in and knocks down shots early. But it’s kind of tough to see him putting up particularly big numbers — at least early on.
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