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NBA In-Season Tournament: Schedule + potential chaos for Warriors, Celtics and more – The Athletic
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Finally! Our first spate of genuine confusion regarding NBA In-Season Tournament tiebreakers resulted in much late-game hilarity Friday, as well as at least one truly clutch shot.
With a win already in hand and the clock winding down, the Toronto Raptors tried a late 3-pointer against the Chicago Bulls for a potential point-differential tiebreaker, which would have been a good strategy if they hadn’t already been eliminated several hours earlier.
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The New Orleans Pelicans correctly went for an extra basket at the end of their win over the LA Clippers … but they needed at least one more point, so a last-second dunk proved of little use.
That was because the Phoenix Suns beat the Memphis Grizzlies by exactly 21 points, something they did only because Devin Booker banked in a 3-pointer with 13 seconds left instead of running out the clock. That shot gave the Suns a plus-34 point differential for their four games, one point more than the Pelicans’ plus-33, and that one-point difference could be hugely relevant entering the final slate of games Tuesday.
The Suns are likely to be the Western Conference’s wild-card team because of that point, resulting in a rematch with the Lakers, who will almost certainly be the top seed with a 4-0 record and a plus-74 margin. The Pelicans could have all but clinched a spot themselves with just two more points but instead have no chance for the wild card and will need to sweat out Houston’s game with Dallas on Tuesday.
We have some wacky outcomes that could throw a wrench into things in the West, but in all likelihood, we will end up with the Lakers as the top seed, Sacramento and either New Orleans or Houston as the second and third seeds and the Suns in fourth. Minnesota and Golden State are the only two other teams with a chance of advancing.
In the East, though? Only Indiana has a clinched a spot in the quarterfinals — the Pacers are assured of a top-two seed after surprisingly going unbeaten in arguably the East’s toughest group. Seven other teams remain alive for one of the three remaining spots, while three others can theoretically luck their way into a wild card if a perfect storm hits.
Let’s break it down:
Clinched (2): L.A. Lakers, Indiana
Likely to advance (2): Phoenix, Milwaukee
Done but sweating out Tuesday (2): New Orleans, Orlando
Need to win (4): New York, Brooklyn, Sacramento, Houston
Need win and help (5): Cleveland, Boston, Miami, Golden State, Minnesota
Need a miracle (3): Charlotte, Atlanta, Philadelphia
Eliminated (12): Washington, Detroit, Toronto, Chicago, Utah, Portland, Memphis, Denver, LA Clippers, Dallas, Oklahoma City, San Antonio
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Lakers (4-0): L.A. has clinched Group A and will be the top seed unless Sacramento wins by at least 45 points on Tuesday. In that case, they will be the second seed.
Houston (2-1): The Rockets win Group B if they beat Dallas on Tuesday and are eliminated if they lose. With a win, they are likely to be the third seed and play at the Group C winner in the quarterfinals.
New Orleans (3-1): The Pels win Group B if the Rockets lose to Dallas on Tuesday and are eliminated if Houston wins. If Houston loses and Sacramento wins, New Orleans would be the third seed and play at Sacramento; if the Kings and Rockets both lose, then the Pels would likely be the second seed and host the Group C winner.
Phoenix (3-1): The Suns, from Group A, will be the wild card and play at either L.A. or Sacramento unless things get crazy: If Minnesota wins by at least 37 points and the Kings either win outright or lose by more than 29 points to Golden State, then the Suns are eliminated.
Sacramento (3-0): Sacramento will win Group C with a win over Golden State; a win makes them the second seed and gets them a home game against either Houston or New Orleans unless they win by at least 45 points, in which case the Kings would be the top seed and host either Phoenix or Minnesota.
If the Kings lose, they can still win Group C, with a loss by fewer than 12 points combined with a Minnesota win that makes up fewer than 33 points in point differential on the Kings. (A Wolves win by 20 or fewer would be guaranteed to accomplish this second part.)
Golden State (2-1): The Warriors win Group C with a win and a Minnesota loss. They also win the group with a win by 13 or more points and a Minnesota win that is not by at least eight points more than Golden State’s win. The Warriors clinch either the division or the wild card if they beat Sacramento by at least 29 points.
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Minnesota (2-1): The Wolves can win Group C with a win and a Golden State win, provided their win is by at least eight points more than Golden State’s win, and that it also makes up 32 points in point differential on Sacramento. Minnesota clinches either the division or the wild card if it wins by at least 37 points.
First of all, you’re gonna need this:
East wild-card point differential: Milwaukee* (plus-39); Orlando* (plus-22); New York (plus-18); Miami (plus-11); Brooklyn (plus-8); Cleveland (plus-6); Boston (even)
Indiana (4-0): The Pacers have clinched Group A. They will be the top seed and play a home quarterfinal against the wild-card team if Milwaukee loses and will be the second seed and host the Group C winner if Milwaukee wins.
Milwaukee (3-0): The Bucks will be the Group B winner and the top seed with a win and play home against the wild-card team in the quarterfinals. If the Bucks lose by fewer than 14 points and the Knicks win but make up fewer than 21 points in point differential on Milwaukee, the Bucks will win Group B but will not be the top seed.
If Milwaukee loses and Boston, Brooklyn, New York and Cleveland all lose, the Bucks will be the wild card and play at Indiana. If Milwaukee loses by fewer than 14 points and the Knicks win, Milwaukee is likely but not certain to be the wild card based on point differential, depending on results with Boston, Brooklyn and Cleveland.
Miami (2-1): The Heat will be the Group B winner if they beat Milwaukee and New York loses, or if they beat Milwaukee by 14 or more points and the Knicks win but by seven or more points fewer than the Heat did.
If Miami wins by more than 14 points and the Celtics, Nets and Cavs all lose, the Heat clinch at least a wild card. If Miami wins by more than 14 points in any other scenario, the Heat are likely but not certain to earn the wild card, depending on point differential with Boston, Brooklyn and Cleveland.
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If Miami wins by more than eight but fewer than 14 points and the Knicks win by seven or more points fewer than Miami, Miami would need Orlando to win Group C to get a wild card, which would then depend on results with Cleveland, Boston and Brooklyn.
Finally, here’s a fun one: Miami can advance as a wild card if it loses by one point and the Celtics, Nets, Cavs and Knicks all lose, the Cavs lose by fewer than 19 and the Knicks lose by more than eight but fewer than 40.
New York (2-1): The Knicks will win Group B with a win and a Miami win over Milwaukee, provided they can finish with a better point differential than both the Heat and Bucks.
The Knicks are in much stronger position for the wild card. With a win and losses by Brooklyn, Boston, Cleveland and Miami, they will earn the wild card and visit Milwaukee in the quarterfinals. If the Heat win, a Knicks win by at least eight points would nonetheless nearly guarantee a wild card, unless either Cleveland, Boston or Brooklyn won by a very large margin and passed them on point differential.
A Miami win by at least seven points more than New York win but not more than 20 points overall could potentially eliminate the Knicks, as they would be third on point differential in a three-way tie with the Bucks and Heat.
Less likely, the Knicks can also earn the wild card if they lose by fewer than nine points, provided that Miami, Brooklyn and Boston also lose, and Atlanta wins but makes up less than 27 points in point differential on the Knicks.
Orlando (3-1): Orlando is done playing, but its fate is uncertain. The Magic win Group C and are likely the third seed if Brooklyn loses, or if Brooklyn wins by less than 14 and Boston also wins but by less than 22.
Orlando is eliminated if Brooklyn wins by at least 14 and Boston wins by at least 22. Any other scenario leaves the Magic in contention for at least a wild card.
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Orlando can earn the wild card if one of Boston or Brooklyn (but not both) passes them on point differential in Group C and New York, Miami and Cleveland all lose. The Magic can also earn the wild card on point differential if they finish second in Group C, depending on results with Miami, Milwaukee, New York and Cleveland.
Brooklyn (2-1): Brooklyn wins Group C with a win and a Boston loss, or with a win by at least 14 points and a Boston win that isn’t eight points or more greater than the Nets’ victory margin.
Brooklyn can earn the wild card with a win by at least 14 points and losses by Cleveland, New York and Miami, or by winning by less than 14 but staying ahead of Boston on point differential and losses by Cleveland, New York and Miami. In the same scenarios, wins Cleveland, New York or Miami could still result in a Brooklyn wild card if the Nets stay ahead of the second-place teams in Groups A and B on point differential.
Boston (2-1): Boston wins Group C if they win by at least 22, Brooklyn also wins, and the Celtics win is by at least eight points more than Brooklyn’s. Boston clinches a wild card with a win and losses by Brooklyn, Cleveland, Miami and New York.
In any scenario in which Brooklyn loses, the Celtics are the wild card with a win and a point-differential advantage on any 3-1 second-place teams in Groups B and C; Cleveland, New York, Miami and Milwaukee would be the potential rivals for that spot.
In any other scenario in which Brooklyn wins, the Celtics need to win by at least eight points more than the Nets to get a wild card, and then would depend on point differential and results of Cleveland, Miami, New York and Milwaukee.
Cleveland (2-1): The Cavs can’t win their group but can still get a wild card with a win. Cleveland clinches with a win and losses by New York, Miami, Boston and Brooklyn, but in any other scenario, they have some work to do on their victory margin. More realistically, a win by at least 17 points would put them in pretty good shape to steal a wild card, as it would let them jump Orlando in Group C and possibly hurdle New York in Group B. Cleveland is eliminated with a loss.
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Believe it or not, three two-loss teams in the East have yet to be eliminated. If Boston, Brooklyn, New York, Miami and Cleveland all lose on Tuesday, we unleash a MAXIMUM CHAOS scenario in which there will be nine different teams that finish 2-2.
Since division ties get resolved first, Boston would eliminate Brooklyn and Toronto in Group C. Groups A and B would come down to point differential, then the wild card would come down to point differential among the three second-place teams. It is mathematically impossible for Cleveland or Boston to qualify at 2-2, and I’ve discussed the scenarios for Miami and New York above.
That takes us to three final teams with very slim chances. First, a quick glance at the numbers:
East no-hopers point differential: Philadelphia (plus-9); Atlanta (minus-9); Charlotte (minus-30)
And now for their improbable scenarios:
Atlanta (1-2): If the Hawks win by at least 18 points … and Charlotte wins without passing Atlanta in point differential … and the Hawks also pass New York and Miami in point differential (which is likely but not certain in this scenario) … and Boston and Brooklyn both lose … then the Hawks will be the wild card and visit Milwaukee in the quarterfinals.
Philadelphia (2-2): The Sixers are done playing. But if Atlanta wins by fewer than 18 … and Charlotte wins by more than nine but by less than 40 … and Miami loses by more than a point … and Boston and Brooklyn both lose … then presto, the Sixers are your wild card and will visit Milwaukee in the quarterfinals!
Charlotte (1-2): OK, so here’s all that needs to happen: Miami needs to lose … and Brooklyn needs to lose … and Cleveland needs to lose … and Boston needs to lose … and all the Hornets have to do is beat the Knicks by 40 and hope that’s enough to hold off Atlanta in point differential. Let’s go!!
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In the quarterfinals, we’ll have an East game followed by a West game on both Monday and Tuesday. I’m guessing the Monday teams will be the ones that have a longer ride to Vegas, so Indiana and the Lakers seem likely to play host on Tuesday. Saturday schedules also could be a factor though: In particular, in the unlikely event we get a Lakers-Rockets quarterfinal, it’s likely to happen on Monday since the same two teams are playing in L.A. 48 hours earlier. Minnesota, if it advances, seems likely to be pushed to Tuesday after it flies back from playing in Charlotte on Saturday; ditto for New Orleans as the Pels return from Chicago.
Where things get funky is filling in games for the four quarterfinal losers to play one another later in the Vegas week. That could result in extra road games for a couple of teams, especially if all four road teams lose in the quarterfinals. Phoenix, for instance, could end up playing at the Lakers then at New Orleans. Meanwhile, teams that advance to the final could end up with quite a road trip. Brooklyn, if it advances as a wild card, could end up traveling for 16 straight days, as the Nets are already set to begin a West Coast trip Dec. 11.
The league also will have to scramble to fill in two games, one home and one road, for each of the 22 teams that don’t make the quarterfinals, to be played Dec. 6 and Dec. 8. The league is likely to add games that make for easy travel and add them between non-division, same-conference rivals that only have three other games scheduled between them (such as, say, Atlanta and Philadelphia). At least there’s enough padding here to alleviate the worst problems; every team will have at least two days off on either side of their games on Dec. 6 and Dec. 8.
As a result, solving for the long plane rides in the West is the biggest problem. It’s not too hard to look at a map and make some bets on what might happen. Look for Portland to have a game against whatever Northern California team doesn’t advance, if not both. Minnesota probably gets one of the two interconference games that must be added, with Chicago a likely opponent, and gets the Grizzlies for the other game. Memphis versus Atlanta, as I noted a week ago, seems likely for the other interconference game, although we could get Miami-New Orleans if the Heat and Pelicans don’t advance. The Clippers will probably add Denver and San Antonio; the Jazz would likely add Dallas and San Antonio.
Filling in the rest, especially in the East, gets progressively easier. New Orleans and the Florida teams are minor headaches if they don’t advance but manageable. Even Boston ends up with relatively manageable trips (say, Charlotte and Chicago). Toronto, a travel pain due to customs, seems likely to have a game against nearby Detroit and another against Cleveland.
Regardless, bank on this: Nobody will be happy. I’m excited to see what the league comes up with, and how quickly, once the games end Tuesday night.
Hollinger: Heat, Suns have weathered early storms
(Top photo: David L. Nemec / NBAE via Getty Images)
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John Hollinger ’s two decades of NBA experience include seven seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies’ Vice President of Basketball Operations and media stints at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analytics, he invented several advanced metrics — most notably, the PER standard. He also authored four editions of “Pro Basketball Forecast.” In 2018 he was honored with the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger