Sports
2023-24 NBA awards watch: Early frontrunners for MVP, ROY, DPOY – ESPN – ESPN
We are about one month into what has been an extremely entertaining NBA season thus far, and there have been some electric performances by players and teams that have already shifted the NBA landscape and changed the expected narrative for the rest of the season.
Let’s take a look at how this action-packed first month has affected the futures market for the NBA individual awards.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Leader
Nikola Jokic (+200)
In the hunt
Luka Doncic (+400)
Joel Embiid (+750)
Jayson Tatum (+800)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1000)
Long shots
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2000)
Anthony Edwards (+2500)
Tyrese Haliburton (+4000)
The five players with the shortest MVP odds haven’t changed in the first month, with the only movement due to small changes in the odds. Jokic is still the MVP leader, and his odds have shortened to +200 after leading the Nuggets to the second-best record in the Western Conference even with Jamal Murray missing time due to injury. Jokic is currently on pace to improve on his lofty numbers from a season ago, leading the NBA with 13.1 RPG and on pace for a career-high of 27.4 PPG.
Doncic, Embiid, Tatum and Antetokounmpo all have the expected elite statistical production on teams that currently all rank in the top-4 in their respective conferences. The MVP overwhelmingly comes from one of the top few seeds in a conference unless there is a strong narrative pull for a dark horse candidate (e.g. when Russell Westbrook averaged the first triple-double in almost 50 years and won MVP on the sixth-seeded Thunder).
All four of these teams are currently bunched within two games of one another, though Tatum’s Celtics currently have the best indicators for sustained success with both the best overall record and scoring margin (+10.6 PPG) in the NBA.
Doncic and Embiid both have strong cases to be made based on their individual numbers and have their teams playing better than expectation thus far. The perception is the Bucks have had a slow start as they integrate Damian Lillard into the mix and continue to deal with injuries to Khris Middleton, but Giannis’s strong play still has them only a game behind the Celtics to keep Giannis in the MVP mix.
The most interesting names on this list are the three longer shots, because they are all young players (age 25 and under) that are new to serious MVP consideration.
I had Edwards as the top young player to watch coming into the season after he turned in an elite performance in the postseason to start the summer, then followed that up by establishing himself as the clear top option on Team USA in the FIBA World Cup to close the summer. This season, Edwards has led the Timberwolves to the best record in the Western Conference, a position they haven’t occupied in the standings for 20 years. If they are able to maintain that slot it would do a lot to improve Edwards’ MVP odds as the season progresses.
Gilgeous-Alexander has a very similar success arc and MVP case as Edwards, with elite individual production on an upstart Thunder team that currently sits as the third seed in the West. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging right around 30 PPG for what would be the second straight season and is putting together a legitimate MVP candidacy.
Haliburton is leading the Pacers on a surprising resurgence based almost purely on his own individual brilliance on offense. In a cross-sport analogy, I compare Haliburton’s Pacers with the Kurt Warner led Greatest Show on Turf around the turn of the century. Haliburton is the NBA leader in assists with 12.0 APG and is averaging almost 25 PPG, sparking a Pacers’ unit with the highest team Offensive Rating in the NBA.
The Pacers won their Group and advanced to the knockout round of the In-Season Tournament, and if they stay near the top of the league it advances Haliburton’s MVP case.
Leader
Victor Wembanyama (-190)
In the hunt
Chet Holmgren (+160)
Long shots
Ausar Thompson (+5000)
Brandon Miller (+7500)
This race has quickly condensed to only four viable candidates, with only two that can legitimately win barring unforeseen circumstances.
Wembanyama vs. Holmgren shapes up as one of the better 1-on-1 battles for Rookie of the Year since the turn of the century. Wembanyama has been as good as advertised, playing at a high level on a nightly basis with regular flashes of brilliance to pique the imagination with the possibility that we’re watching an all-time NBA career unfold in real time.
Holmgren has quietly been just as productive, perhaps even slightly better if you factor efficiency into the mix. Both Wembanyama and Holmgren have seen their RoY odds shorten in the first month of the season, with Wembanyama an almost 2-to-1 odds-on favorite but Holmgren not far behind with odds approaching Even.
Thompson has averaged double-double so far, leading all rookies with 10.1 RPG, while Miller is developing into a consistent scorer for the Hornets. Both deserve mention but seemingly have little realistic chance to catch the leaders outside of major injury.
Leader
Rudy Gobert (+500)
Anthony Davis (+500)
In the hunt
Evan Mobley (+800)
Bam Adebayo (+1000)
Brook Lopez (+1000)
Long shots
Jaren Jackson Jr. (+1100)
Victor Wembanyama (+1500)
Chet Holmgren (+2500)
Gobert has settled into his role with the Timberwolves this season after struggling to acclimate to his new squad after last season’s trade. He is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, and is the backbone behind the Timberwolves’ surge to the second-best team Defensive Rating in the league.
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Davis has the co-shortest odds for this award as the early season leader in blocked shots per game on a top-10 Lakers defense. Mobley, Adebayo and Lopez all play similar roles to Davis as the main presences in the middle on defenses with strong potential. In all four cases, improvements in team defensive rating as the season progresses could help their candidacy.
Jackson won the award last season, but is off to a slow start as a shot blocker on a Grizzlies defense that has been average. Jackson has been carrying a larger load with Ja Morant suspended, and its possible Morant’s return in December could help Jackson get back to his usual level on defense.
Wembanyama and Holmgren may be rookies, but both are among the top-5 in blocked shots right out of the gate. While they are more likely to win Rookie of the Year than Defensive Player of the Year, both are in the conversation for both awards.
Leader
Tim Hardaway Jr. (+300)
In the hunt
Immanuel Quickley (+425)
Austin Reaves (+800)
Cam Thomas (+1000)
Long shots
Chris Paul (+1500)
Eric Gordon (+3300)
Bobby Portis (+4000)
Buddy Hield (+4000)
Hardaway has jumped to the top of the race for this award with a stellar first month of the season. Hardaway is on pace to average a career-high with 18.2 PPG, and his 3.6 3PG ranks fourth in the NBA behind three MVP candidates (Stephen Curry, Doncic and Haliburton). His production off the bench has helped the Mavericks fast start as one of the top-4 seeds in the West.
Quickley entered the season as the favorite in this category, and his odds are shorter now than they were to begin the season even though he now sits at second on this list. He continues to be a primary offensive option off the bench for the Knicks.
Reaves began the season slow as a starter but has jump-started his production since moving to the bench. And Thomas has shown the ability to score 30-plus points on a regular basis even coming off the bench.
Paul, Gordon, Portis and Hield are all productive veterans that could start on many teams but have important roles off the bench for their current teams. Any of them could realistically have a chance to win this award with health and sustained play, particularly if their teams remain near the top of the league.
Leaders
Tyrese Maxey (-105)
In the hunt
Alperen Sengun (+600)
Scottie Barnes (+600)
Long shots
Cade Cunningham (+1500)
Cam Thomas (+1500)
Maxey entered the season as the favorite to win this award, and his strong first month has changed his odds to the point he’s now the odds-on favorite. Maxey has stepped into the primary perimeter creator role for the 76ers with James Harden moved on to the Clippers, and has shown he can fill that roll at an All Star level.
Sengun has spearheaded a surge for the young Rockets that has them in early playoff contention well ahead of schedule. Barnes is having the bounce-back season I expected, surging past the form that led to his winning Rookie of the Year two seasons ago.
Cunningham has had some ups and downs early in the season, but could settle out at near All-Star level after missing most of last season due to injury.
Thomas has a strong chance to jump back into contention if he can stay healthy. After toiling as a rotation-level spark plug scorer in his first two seasons, he has been one of the leading scorers in the NBA in a starting role in this campaign. If he recovers from his injury and keeps his scoring average north of 25 PPG, Thomas will earn serious consideration for Most Improved.
