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Women’s college basketball mailbag: If Tara VanDerveer breaks record, will she retire? – The Athletic
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Happy National Jukebox Day (yes, that is an actual holiday, and yes, it’s actually today).
Like your favorite jukebox, today’s mailbag is going to hit some of our favorite classics (When is Coach X going to retire?) and address some top-40 topics (NIL, duh).
Let’s get right to it.
Who is going to be the first team to hold South Carolina to under 100 points this season? – Chuck G.
You, wise reader, might have read this question and said: But this already happened! And you would be right! South Dakota State held the Gamecocks to 78 points on Monday evening. I wasn’t hugely surprised to see that, considering the Jackrabbits held South Carolina to 62 points last season, and in general, those Summit League defenses (South Dakota State and South Dakota) have had decent success against South Carolina in recent seasons.
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But I start with this question because I think the spirit of it is still an intriguing place to begin today’s mailbag … specifically, how good is South Carolina’s offense? Is it the best ever under Dawn Staley? And is it too early to say that?
GO DEEPER
Women’s college basketball power rankings: South Carolina returns to a familiar spot
When looking at the Gamecocks’ basic offensive stats, two jump out to me: points and pace. They are averaging 100 points through four games, which is roughly 20 points more than their scoring average in recent seasons (and 40 points more than in Staley’s early days of the turnaround). But this team is also playing much faster than any other during Staley’s tenure at 80 possessions per game, which is roughly seven to 10 more possessions per game than in recent seasons. Working that out mathematically, seven to 10 possessions a game could equate to 12 to 16 points pretty easily, which gets previous teams closer to that 100-point mark.
So a better place to evaluate and compare this season’s offense is to check some advanced statistics like points per shot attempt (PPSA) and points per possession (PPP). The Gamecocks are averaging 1.11 PPSA, matching the season-long best South Carolina set during the 2016-17 national title season. And its 0.99 PPP is the best of any season during Staley’s tenure.
I’ll stop here and say this: Comparing stats four games into a season isn’t fair most of the time, yet the Gamecocks’ first four games featured a strength of schedule that gives me confidence these numbers aren’t completely dishonest.
Now, diving back into the stats to look at why this offense has been so good, a few things stand out.
• The Gamecocks are attempting (19.5 per game) and hitting (6.8 per game) more 3s than any other team during the Staley era. That bumps up the PPP and PPSA stats, for sure.
• South Carolina is assisting on 64 percent of field goals. That’s also a team-best during the Staley era, and it speaks to the Gamecocks’ passing ability and unselfishness.
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• They’re turning over the ball on only 11 percent of possessions, which is not only the best mark during Staley’s career there, but also the third-best nationally at this point in the year.
Four games do not a season make. But what we’ve seen so far has been really damn impressive. We’re accustomed to discussing the disciplined and elite defensive teams Staley puts on the floor, and to now pair that (because they’ve been great on that side of the ball again this season) with offensive production the likes of which Columbia has never seen. This is going to be fun.
How many expansion teams can the WNBA add before NCAA women’s basketball stars start leaving early? — Ross V.
In order for players to start leaving early, the WNBA CBA needs to change. It runs through the 2027 season. Currently, the CBA allows for only American players to enter the draft if they are 22 (or will turn 22 during the calendar year of the draft), they have graduated already (or will graduate in the calendar year of the draft) or they are four years removed from high school. International players may enter the draft if they are 20 (or if they turn 20 during the calendar year of the draft).
So at this point, it’s less about adding WNBA teams and more about potential changes to future CBAs that would make it more possible for players to leave early.
How much longer do you think Tara VanDerveer will coach given she’ll likely pass Coach K in wins this year? — Brett B.
VanDerveer could pass former Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s 1,202 career wins during this calendar year if the Cardinal remain undefeated, or if Stanford drops a game or two, the record is likely to fall in early- to mid-January. And I supposed it’s quite fitting for her to climb to the top of that mountain in what will be the final year of the conference that she helped cement.
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Last year, when I was reporting for an article about VanDerveer and her cabin, we spoke a bit about retirement, but ultimately, there wasn’t much to be said. She wasn’t thinking about it, mostly because her ability to spend her summers away had allowed her to extend her coaching career. As long as it stays that way (and I see no reason why it would change), I don’t think retirement is an imminent thought. I also don’t think it has anything to do with when she breaks Krzyzewski’s record.
That conversation, obviously, preceded the definite fall of the Pac-12 and Stanford’s insertion into the ACC, and I wonder how that could change her calculus. The in-conference travel schedule will become a lot more hectic as the Cardinal will be taking road trips to Miami, Blacksburg, Va., and Durham, N.C., instead of Los Angeles, Seattle and Eugene, Ore.
Given what I know about VanDerveer, I wouldn’t expect a big farewell season from her nor would I think her decision will be based on anything other than what she wants for her life and allowing more time to spend with her mom and family. She will retire at the top of the game, whenever that time comes, and she established coach-in-waiting in Kate Paye. She has more than earned her long days at her cabin (though, not in the winter), and I expect VanDerveer will be a coach who thrives in retirement.
Which is the most competitive conference top to bottom? — Warren B.
This is a toughie. Kudos, Warren.
You didn’t ask about the “best” conference, which in my mind, centers on a conference that has a top grouping of teams. You asked about the most competitive conference and specified “top to bottom,” so we’re not just talking about the top five to six teams in a single conference; we’re talking about A to Z.
If we define competitive based on the majority of conference games being tightly contested and/or close, I’m going to go with the Pac-12. It helps that this is also a conference with many long-tenured coaches, so you have a level of familiarity that breeds great matchups. Additionally, some of these teams that are finding themselves on the outside looking in right now (Oregon State, Oregon) have been elite in the past. That involves great coaching, so I still have confidence in those staffs to find ways to put the pieces together on the floor.
That said, I still think the top of the Pac-12 (Stanford, Utah, Colorado, UCLA, USC) will win the majority of those games.
However, if we define competitive based on the potential chaos of this season and lots of surprising upsets, then I might opt for the Big Ten. This is a conference that also has long-tenured coaches and familiarity, but unlike the Pac-12, through the first few weeks of the season, the top Big Ten teams have shown weaknesses. Cards are on the table for the leaders of the pack. As of the writing of this mailbag, it seems as though the top group (Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland) might be more accident-prone than other conferences’ upper crusts.
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How much of an impact will NIL have on the WNBA draft? Won’t star players like Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese think long and hard about leaving college to go to places where they will likely play for less money? — Douglas V.
There is definitely an argument to be made about certain players having a lower NIL value after college. However, that argument is not for players like Clark and Reese. The notion that these future WNBA lottery picks are going to lose out on deals with State Farm and Nike (Clark) or Reebok (Reese) is just untrue.
The argument of players having a higher NIL value in college than after college is for the players who aren’t inking these larger deals. And generally, they’re for players who are garnering their biggest NIL deals through collectives.
For instance, last season, with an NIL deal through the Garnet Trust (the South Carolina collective) and marketing firm NOCAP Sports, every Gamecocks player made at least $25,000. The Hawkeyes’ collective, the Swarm Collective, had a deal with every member of Iowa’s team (minus Clark) for at least $15,000. UCLA coach Cori Close said her hope was that every Bruins player would be earning at least $50,000 in NIL money, some of which could be going through their collective.
Reebok has signed its first major NIL athlete — Angel Reese 🙌
She becomes the first Reebok basketball athlete signed under Reebook Basketball’s new president/VP tandem of Shaquille O’Neal and Allen Iverson.
🎥 @Reebok | @Reese10Angelpic.twitter.com/7y740nYc5M
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) October 17, 2023
If we’re only talking about NIL money and not factoring in salary (which, you’ll remember, is not something college athletes receive for playing sports) Monika Czinano’s NIL was likely higher in college than the pros (though her total professional basketball paycheck will far exceed the money earned through NIL deals with the Swarm collective). UCLA’s Charisma Osborne, who could have gone pro last year but opted to use her COVID-19 bonus year, is potentially earning more this season in NIL deals than she could right now had she gone pro given that she might not have been able to stick on a WNBA roster for a full season. (It’s tough out there for guards and, well, everyone in the W with limited roster sizes.)
When Reese and Clark go pro, Reebok, Nike and State Farm will be right there beside them (as well as plenty of other companies).
Did Iowa make a mistake by not securing a stronger inside presence in the transfer portal? Kansas State may have laid out a blueprint to play the Hawkeyes, and much of it seemed to start with a complete lack of fear of any post-based scoring. — Tom K.
The transfer portal is player-driven, meaning it’s a lot more about what the player wants in their next landing spot (what a school can offer) than anything else. Coaches and staffs can go into the portal and try to find what they need, but if they can’t offer what the player wants, it’s all moot.
Iowa has a lot to offer, but specifically for bigs, the biggest thing Iowa can offer is playing with Caitlin Clark. There are probably several posts who would be happy to find themselves on the receiving end of her passes and as the other piece of a dynamic tandem. But Clark may go pro after this season. And after she graduates, Iowa doesn’t have a plug-and-play replacement. So if you’re a big with three years of eligibility remaining, are you going to go somewhere to play with Clark for one year? And if you’re a big with two years of eligibility remaining, are you going to Iowa knowing Clark might leave after this year, and the following year you’d be Clark-less? Not unless there’s another reason to get to the University of Iowa or the Midwest.
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When I looked at the portal, there were two really good bigs I thought could be that marriage that benefited all parties: Lauren Ware and Camille Hobby.
(I didn’t see Lauren Betts going to Iowa, and I didn’t think Maria Gakdeng or Rose Micheaux was going to bank on Clark playing two more years.)
Hobby would have been an experienced grad transfer looking for a larger role within a team and could have been a nice fit. And even though Ware has three seasons of eligibility remaining, I thought the South Dakota native might be open to an opportunity to play closer to home (I was very wrong … she went in the opposite direction).
Does Iowa’s interior presence need to improve? Yes. But doing that through the transfer portal was always going to be an uphill battle.
(Photo of Tara VanDerveer: Bob Kupbens / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Chantel Jennings is The Athletic’s senior writer for the WNBA and women’s college basketball. She covered college sports for the past decade at ESPN.com and The Athletic and spent the 2019-20 academic year in residence at the University of Michigan’s Knight-Wallace Fellowship for Journalists. Follow Chantel on Twitter @chanteljennings