3 Players With the Most to Prove On Every NBA Team – Bleacher Report

Expectations are fickle beasts in the NBA world.
For myriad reasons, ranging from existing contracts to upcoming free agencies to anecdotal narratives to disappointing trajectories, plenty of players enter the 2023-24 season eager to prove themselves on the hardwood.
Categorizing each into one of three categories—incoming rookies (self-explanatory), up-and-comers (players with less than five years of NBA experience) and veterans (players with at least five years of experience)—we’ve singled out three contributors for each of the 30 squads who might already be perspiring.

Incoming Rookie: Kobe Bufkin
When an organization refuses to include an incoming rookie in a trade package for a two-time All-NBA player, expectations begin to skyrocket.
That exact scenario unfolded for Kobe Bufkin, the No. 15 overall pick of the 2023 NBA draft, when the Atlanta Hawks declined to move him to the Toronto Raptors as part of a deal for Pascal Siakam, per Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. Now, the Michigan product has to prove he’s worthy of the early intrigue—and the memories invoked by his first name don’t exactly ease the weight of expectations, either.
Up-and-Comer: De’Andre Hunter
Four years into his NBA career, De’Andre Hunter has yet to justify the hype that came with his status as the fourth overall pick of the 2019 draft. He’s been a steady role player for the Hawks and averaged 15.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists last year, but he has yet to develop into a game-changing force capable of elevating the ceiling of a middle-of-the-pack dweller.
Veteran: Dejounte Murray
Dejounte Murray was fantastic during his inaugural campaign in Atlanta, but he must continue to find his stride alongside Trae Young when the two dynamic guards share the floor. Even more importantly, he needs to shoulder more of a defensive burden by stepping up to check the bigger guards and swingmen who have plagued the Hawks for years.

Veteran: Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum is unquestionably one of the 10 best players in basketball, but he’s dangerously close to developing a—largely undeserved—reputation for regular-season excellence followed by premature postseason exits.
Since Tatum arrived in Beantown, he’s experienced three losses in the Eastern Conference Finals, one disappointing outcome in the NBA Finals and two playoff trips that fell short of the penultimate stage. Fantastic as he’s been individually, that empty ring finger only grows more prominent with the passage of time.
Veteran: Jaylen Brown
This isn’t even about Jaylen Brown struggling to create high-quality looks off the bounce. It’s just about his massive contract.
When he agreed to a record five-year, $303.7 million supermax extension in July, he ratcheted up the pressure he’ll face on a nightly basis to come through not just as a celestial companion for Tatum but also as a do-it-yourself superstar.
Veteran: Kristaps Porziņģis
The Celtics didn’t exactly empty the coffers to land Kristaps Porziņģis from the Washington Wizards (their part of the three-team deal sent Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala and Julian Phillips out for Porziņģis, Marcus Sasser and a 2024 first-rounder).
However, the Latvian 7-footer needs to be the piece capable of helping Boston end a title drought that stretches back to Kevin Garnett’s impassioned screams in ’08.

Veteran: Spencer Dinwiddie
Expectations are slightly different than the last time Spencer Dinwiddie suited up for the Brooklyn Nets at the beginning of a season. After stints with the Washington Wizards and Dallas Mavericks, he’s back as a 30-year-old guard who needs to be a steadying force for a young team seeking a distinct identity.
The 16.5 points and 9.1 assists he averaged during his 26 games with the Nets in 2022-23 are a good start, but without far more shooting efficiency, they’ll be empty numbers that don’t help him move up the leaguewide backcourt hierarchy.
Veteran: Mikal Bridges
Mikal Bridges excelled after arriving in Brooklyn via a midseason trade. Over 27 appearances, he averaged a scorching 26.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists while slashing 47.5/37.6/89.4.
However, statistics are often inflated for non-contenders at the end of the regular season, and it’s time for the ex-Phoenix Sun to prove he can be a legitimate centerpiece.
Veteran: Ben Simmons
This basically speaks for itself as Ben Simmons has played just 42 games since the Philadelphia 76ers’ Game 7 loss to the Hawks in the 2021 playoffs. Even when he’s suited up, he’s looked like a shell of his former self, particularly as a scoring threat—a word used as lightly as possible.
Plus, as the man himself explained, per the New York Post, “I owe it to everybody … to get back to where I need to be.”

Incoming Rookie: Brandon Miller
Lest we forget, the Charlotte Hornets decided to take Brandon Miller instead of Scoot Henderson with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 NBA draft. It could become a totally justifiable choice, but it also thrusts immediate pressure in Miller’s direction—pressure that wasn’t exactly lowered by his summer-league struggles.
Miller is a fantastic shooter, but he has to prove he can create separation against NBA defenses and contribute positively even when his shot isn’t falling.
Up-and-Comer: James Bouknight
Even though he was a lottery pick just two years ago, James Bouknight may be running out of chances if he can’t find his shooting stroke.
After hitting just 34.8 percent of his attempts from the field and 34.7 percent of his triples as a rookie, he sat at 35.8 and 30.3 percent, respectively, during his sophomore campaign. That obviously won’t cut it if he’s looking to become even a rotation mainstay off the pine.
Up-and-Comer: LaMelo Ball
LaMelo Ball could only muster 36 appearances in the follow-up to his All-Star efforts in 2021-22, though he’s left little doubt he’s a franchise player for the Hornets.
Now, he’s surrounded by even more talent for an organization that hasn’t won a playoff series since beating Tracy McGrady’s Orlando Magic in 2002. Ending that streak of futility is vital as he attempts to carve out a winning reputation.

Up-and-Comer: Patrick Williams
Patrick Williams hasn’t exactly lived up to the all-around hype that helped him come off the board as the No. 4 overall pick of the 2020 NBA draft. Held back by both injuries and a lack of development, he posted just 10.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game last year, failing to average 30 minutes even though he was a starting lineup mainstay.
Williams is now playing on a $9.8 million team option, and the size of his next contract will depend heavily on his ability to take not just one but multiple strides forward in 2023-24.
Up-and-Comer: Ayo Dosunmu
Even though just a year has passed, the hype that accompanied Ayo Dosunmu at the tail end of his rookie season has all but evaporated. Granted, that happens when the shooting percentages dip and the defensive intensity is no longer novel and a bit more hidden on a Chicago Bulls squad that could only win 40 games.
Dosunmu can still prove himself an impact rotation player on a postseason lock, but he hasn’t done so yet.
Veteran: Zach LaVine
Regressing as a passer and failing to assert yourself on defense isn’t an ideal combination, but that’s what happened to Zach LaVine last year as he ended his two-season string of All-Star appearances. More importantly, the uber-athletic guard has made the playoffs just once in nine seasons, and that experience ended one round into the ’22 tourney.

Up-and-Comer: Evan Mobley
Is Evan Mobley a core rotation member on a contender or a true star capable of carrying a squad even when his leading counterparts are glued to the bench in street clothes?
The big man didn’t progress quite to the expected extent during his sophomore season, largely because his scoring average only rose from 15.0 to 16.2 points. But his all-around game remains consistently effective, and the sky is the limit if he starts showing more targeted aggression as a frontcourt scoring threat.
Up-and-Comer: Darius Garland
Darius Garland made a star turn in 2021-22 and justified the hype again last season. But now he must prove he can hit that proverbial next level by carrying the Cleveland Cavaliers to even more team-based success.
His exemplary individual output has yielded 44 and 51 regular-season wins over the last two campaigns, followed by just a single postseason victory in a 4-1 first-round loss to the 2022-23 New York Knicks.
Veteran: Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell remained blisteringly hot throughout 2022-23, averaging 28.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists while slashing 48.4/38.6/86.7. But his first postseason stint in Cleveland was a far cry from his 2020 efforts for the Utah Jazz. His shooting percentages plummeted to 43.3 percent from the field and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc, and a rise in turnovers didn’t help.
The dynamic guard has ascended to a level at which playoff success is paramount for his reputation to keep rising.

Up-and-Comer: Grant Williams
Acquired in a three-team trade that saw the Dallas Mavericks send out Reggie Bullock and future draft capital, Grant Williams now gets to enjoy a fresh set of threads after carving out a role-playing job with the Boston Celtics.
The Beantown residents were worse with him on the floor each of the last three years, though, and a similar trend in Dallas won’t bode well for the new owner of a four-year, $53 million contract.
Veteran: Luka Dončić
Luka Dončić’s talent on the basketball court couldn’t be any more obvious. There’s a reason he checked in as our No. 1 player of the next five years. But Dončić still needs to add to his trophy collection in one way or another.
Though his gaudy statistics have yielded four All-NBA selections and four seasons in which he’s generated at least back-of-the-ballot MVP votes, he has yet to finish higher than fourth in the race for the league’s premier individual honor. More importantly, his Mavericks have advanced out of the first round of the playoffs just once since he arrived, and he’s now coming off a disappointing 38-44 campaign that featured zero postseason run.
Veteran: Kyrie Irving
One of the most obvious inclusions throughout the league, Kyrie Irving has generated more headlines for non-basketball reasons than for his ball-on-a-string handles and generational offensive prowess in recent years.
If things go south in Dallas, as they have in Cleveland, Boston and Brooklyn during the second half of Irving’s mercurial career, his reputation as a tremendous talent who drags a team down as often as he lifts it may be irrevocable.

Up-and-Comer: Christian Braun
With Bruce Brown Jr. gone to the Indiana Pacers after filling a key role during the Denver Nuggets’ championship run, someone has to take charge and excel on both ends of the court as a supporting piece.
Christian Braun proved he could be that guy in limited minutes last year, flashing his above-the-rim hops and defensive instincts whenever head coach Mike Malone handed him significant run. But the difference between “could be” and “is” matters.
Up-and-Comer: Michael Porter Jr.
Michael Porter Jr. is one of the NBA’s most talented shooters, often firing away as soon as the ball swings into his waiting arms and putting his gorgeous, nearly unblockable jumper on display. But can he keep building upon last year’s 17.4 points per game or find a way to contribute positively when his shots aren’t falling?
Veteran: Jamal Murray
Consider this a stretch inclusion since precious few members of the defending champions have much to prove in 2023-24.
However, Murray elevated his play so significantly during a postseason run in which he averaged 26.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists while slashing 47.3/39.6/92.6 that he’s entering 2023-24 with a chance to prove he’s not just a supporting star to Nikola Jokić but also a scheme-altering talent capable of sparking a title run all on his own.

Incoming Rookie: Ausar Thompson
The Detroit Pistons feature so much young talent that even a player as gifted as Ausar Thompson, the No. 5 overall pick of the 2023 NBA draft, could get lost in the shuffle if he gets off to a slow start.
Expect him to begin serving as a standout perimeter defender capable of maximizing his length and disruptive instincts, but his shooting may be a barometer for his chances of emerging as an All-Rookie option and future star.
Up-and-Comer: Cade Cunningham
The No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NBA draft hasn’t seen his early career go according to plan. After a strong first season that featured typical rookie issues (namely turnovers, shooting struggles, and struggles elevating his teammates), he began to put together a true breakout season before a shin injury cut the efforts short after just 12 contests.
Now, it’s time for him to get back on track and build upon those per-game averages of 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists.
Up-and-Comer: Jaden Ivey
Just a year removed from top-five-pick status, Jaden Ivey should already feel pressure to break out as a sophomore.
His first NBA campaign saw him shoot just 41.6 percent from the field and 34.3 percent from three-point territory, and his on/off splits were nothing short of disastrous as the Pistons had their net rating dip by a staggering 11.8 points per 100 possessions when he played.

Up-and-Comer: Jonathan Kuminga
The Golden State Warriors are clearly banking on Jonathan Kuminga’s development as they continue to engage in the difficult battle to compete and retool simultaneously. But that hasn’t necessarily been obvious while looking at the minutes head coach Steve Kerr has allotted to the high-flying forward.
Kuminga received three DNPs during the Dubs’ two-round playoff run last year, and he played double-digit minutes in just a first-round Game 3 victory over the Sacramento Kings. The talent and growth potential may be obvious, but that hasn’t manifested as trust yet.
Up-and-Comer: Moses Moody
Moses Moody functioned as a more consistent, albeit rushed, piece of Golden State’s playoff rotation, appearing in 11 of 12 games and cresting the 10-minute threshold seven times. He’s still far from an entrenched piece of the core, which needs to change if he’s to emerge from the many options the Dubs have trotted out and will continue to test moving forward.
Veteran: Chris Paul
Eighteen seasons. Zero rings.
Enough said.

Incoming Rookie: Amen Thompson
“There’s no real ceiling because of the physical gifts that he has,” Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka said about incoming No. 4 overall pick Amen Thompson, per AT&T Sportsnet. “You’ve seen guys over the years with all the physical traits, you need to have that competitive fire as well and that’s when you get the special players.”
Thompson is a basketball junkie seemingly capable of taking down even the biggest hoopheads in trivia battles. But the transition from G League competition to the speed and skill of the NBA is significant.
Up-and-Comer: Jabari Smith Jr.
Even with an All-Rookie selection under his belt, Jabari Smith Jr. struggled to improve upon the flaws that prevented him from becoming a slam-dunk selection at No. 1 overall in the 2022 NBA draft and instead dropped him to the third slot.
Namely, he failed to create consistent, high-quality looks off the bounce en route to a 40.8/30.7/78.6 shooting line and couldn’t make an impact as a non-scorer. The Rockets saw their net rating dip by 8.5 points per 100 possessions when he played—not atypical for even the most hyped rookies but still something that needs to change quickly as Houston attempts to make a leap behind its intriguing balance of youth and experience.
Veteran: Fred VanVleet
Speaking of that experience…
Fred VanVleet signed a three-year, $129 million deal with the Rockets after seven seasons as a key piece of the Toronto Raptors, and the pressure should immediately ratchet up as he’s tasked with providing veteran leadership and a steadying on-court presence for one of the league’s youngest squads. Given the type of win-now moves Houston made throughout the offseason, patience shouldn’t be expected.

Up-and-Comer: Bennedict Mathurin
Bennedict Mathurin got off to a scorching start during his rookie campaign, but the signs of promise, while still tantalizing and undeniable, came a bit fewer and farther between as the season progressed.
After the All-Star break, he averaged 14.9 points, 1.7 assists and 2.3 turnovers on 45.7/34.0/82.5 shooting, which represented a step up in shooting efficiency but regression in the volume-scoring and turnover departments.
Sophomore slumps have often awaited players with this type of profile, and avoiding one would go a long way for the Arizona product’s burgeoning stardom.
Veteran: Tyrese Haliburton
Improvements of this magnitude aren’t supposed to happen.
Tyrese Haliburton had already taken massive strides as a sophomore. Then he went out and upped his per-game averages by 5.4 points and 2.2 assists while shooting far more efficiently from the field, reducing his turnover rate and playing arguably the best defense of his young career.
Now, the surging star needs to prove this is his new normal and not just a year-long aberration.
Veteran: Myles Turner
Myles Turner has spent nearly a decade with the Indiana Pacers, even if he’s felt like a trade-rumor mainstay, and he’s asserted himself as a Defensive Player of the Year contender whenever he can stay healthy.
That said, he’s never played in more than seven games during a single postseason, largely because the Pacers haven’t advanced beyond the first round during his tenure and are now trying to end a three-year playoff drought. Translating the stats and defensive anchoring into victories is the obvious next step.

Veteran: Russell Westbrook
What to prove? That he’s not washed up, that he can make a positive impact in spite of his shooting woes and offensive nonchalance and that he’s more than just a Los Angeles Lakers castoff at this stage of his Hall of Fame career.
Veteran: Paul George
What to prove? That he can remain healthy after failing to play in even 60 games during any of the last four seasons and that he can retain his shooting streak during the postseason.
Veteran: Kawhi Leonard
What to prove? That his body won’t keep betraying him in his early 30s and that he can continue to operate at the same astronomically high two-way level when he’s able to wear a uniform rather than street clothes.

Up-and-Comer: Austin Reaves
Austin Reaves was an undrafted unknown before shining toward the tail end of the 2021-22 season.
Now, following a marvelous breakout campaign that carried over into a postseason that saw him slash 46.4/44.3/89.5 while averaging 16.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists, he has to do away with claims of flukiness and justify his new four-year, $56 million early Bird maximum contract.
Veteran: Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis is among the most self-explanatory inclusions throughout the league.
His talent is blindingly obvious whenever he’s on the floor, but he’s had so many bumps, bruises and more serious injuries over the years that Los Angeles Lakers fans don’t know when he’ll ever be in the lineup for a sustained stretch. Playing more might be the only way to regain his form from the pandemic-inspired Disney postseason.
Veteran: Christian Wood
If you were expecting LeBron James to show up here, think again. He might always enter NBA seasons with a prove-it mentality, but the league’s all-time scoring champion is already entrenched as a pantheon-level player.
Instead, Christian Wood goes under the microscope as he attempts to resurrect his fringe stardom in a purple-and-gold uniform. Cam Reddish and Jaxson Hayes are also operating on minimum-salary, prove-yourself deals, but Wood has the ability to make far more of an impact for the Lakers, so long as he’s not just an empty-stats-on-lackluster-teams guy.

Up-and-Comer: Ziaire Williams
Ziaire Williams backslid after a promising rookie campaign, struggling as a secondary distributor as his field-goal percentage slipped from 45.0 to 42.9 and his three-point stroke all but disappeared (31.4 to 25.8 percent).
If he’s a key part of the long-term Memphis Grizzlies core, he needs to get back on track as soon as possible and begin reminding the Beale Street residents of the talent that made him a top-10 pick in 2021.
Up-and-Comer: Ja Morant
Everyone knows how good Ja Morant is on a basketball court. He’s an unbelievable highlight-reel machine capable of singlehandedly winning games, and he seemed locked in on a trajectory that would leave him as one of the true faces of the league.
But that was before video showed him displaying a firearm at a Denver-area nightclub and then, two months later, posing with a firearm in a car, culminating in a 25-game suspension that will keep him in street clothes until late December.
Veteran: Marcus Smart
Marcus Smart served as both a passionate leader and a steadying force for one highly competitive Boston Celtics squad after another, but now he needs to strut his stuff and endear himself to a new fanbase.
The defensive ace has significant limitations as a scoring threat and floor-spacing option, but the good has typically outweighed the bad (or, more accurately, the lackluster) to this point. Will that translate to a new location and a new set of teammates?

Up-and-Comer: Tyler Herro
Would Damian Lillard have been a member of the Miami Heat had Tyler Herro been made available?
We’ll never know, but Lillard is now on the Milwaukee Bucks. And Herro remains in place, likely eager to prove to South Beach residents that their beloved squad can compete for a title with him scoring upward of 20 points per game.
Up-and-Comer: Caleb Martin
Caleb Martin exploded in the 2023 postseason, averaging 12.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists while shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 42.3 percent from behind the arc. He looked like an entirely different player capable of filling a far more critical role, which was reflected in head coach Erik Spoelstra’s decision to play him 30.2 minutes per game.
Is he that player or the lesser version we saw throughout the regular season?
Veteran: Bam Adebayo
It still feels like Bam Adebayo can reach another level.
Thanks to his all-around scoring ability and defensive chops, he’s already one of the Association’s best centers, but he hasn’t put it all together and reached his perceived ceiling on either end. If he can blow away the 20-point threshold or win Defensive Player of the Year after sitting at Nos. 4 or 5 in the voting each of the last four seasons, then he’ll have truly arrived for the Heat.

Veteran: Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard didn’t come cheap. The Milwaukee Bucks parted with a number of assets, including star point guard Jrue Holiday, an unprotected first-rounder in 2029 and a set of swap rights in 2028 and 2030.
It almost goes without saying that Lillard will be under plenty of scrutiny as he attempts to guide the Bucks to a summit they haven’t reached since their 2021 title.
Will he be even more effective on offense with Giannis Antetokounmpo cleaning up on defense? Can he accept a lesser role on the scoring end when Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez are rolling?
This is unquestionably the most talented team Lillard has ever been a part of, and the increased chances of earning a ring come with plenty of added pressure.
Veteran: Khris Middleton
The Bucks don’t exactly have a roster conducive to this exercise. They’re not relying on breakouts from any young players, and their rotation is now almost entirely comprised of a certain All-NBA guard and plenty of known veteran commodities who have ascended to the top of the mountaintop with the organization.
Middleton remains one of the three most important players on the Brewton squad, and he should be eager to win a second championship and put aside any concerns that may have stemmed from the early exits in each of the last two postseasons.
Veteran: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Much like Middleton, Antetokounmpo doesn’t have too much to prove. He’s already established as one of the premier superstars in the Association, he has a ring to his credit, and he’s still squarely in the midst of his athletic prime.
But this roster, especially following the Lillard acquisition, is loaded and should be one of the prohibitive favorites in the Eastern Conference. Antetokounmpo remains the face of the organization, and pressure inevitably accompanies such circumstances.

Up-and-Comer: Jaden McDaniels
Is this the year Jaden McDaniels morphs into a full-fledged defensive wrecking ball?
Despite filling an expanded offensive role in 2022-23, the lanky forward continued to make a massive impact on the point-preventing end, averaging 0.9 steals and 1.0 blocks en route to a narrow miss in the All-Defensive voting. He shouldn’t be satisfied until he gets that recognition—and potentially more.
Up-and-Comer: Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards was great during the regular season and looked like a potential best-player-in-the-league candidate during his brief postseason stay.
That’s not hyperbolic, either.
The Georgia product put up an eye-popping 31.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.0 blocks per game in a first-round loss to the Denver Nuggets, shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from beyond the rainbow while earning a parade of trips to the charity stripe.
The world knows Edwards can play like that in spurts. Now he has to show he can do so throughout the ups and downs of a lengthy regular season.
Veteran: Rudy Gobert
Duh?
Rudy Gobert’s first campaign with the Minnesota Timberwolves fell a yawning chasm short of expectations, to the point he’s already running out of time to prove the deal that brought him over from the Utah Jazz wasn’t actually one of the worst in modern NBA history.

Up-and-Comer: Herbert Jones
Herbert Jones’ willingness to make plays that didn’t appear in the box score and serve as an off-ball wunderkind made him a darling of in-the-know NBA observers during his rookie season in 2021-22. But the hype faded a bit in the follow-up campaign as the former Alabama standout failed to build upon his rookie efforts, declining in many advanced statistics and seeing a slight reduction in playing time.
A lot about his trajectory will be determined in his third go-round, even if he’s already under contract through 2026-27.
Up-and-Comer: Zion Williamson
Twenty-four games played in 2019-20. Sixty-one in 2020-21. Zero in 2021-22. Twenty-nine in 2022-23.
Do we need to explain further?
Veteran: Brandon Ingram
Not only has Brandon Ingram failed to make a second All-Star team since his first appearance in 2019-20, but he’s also played just six postseason contests throughout a confusing career.
Granted, the high-scoring forward has continuously found ways to make subtle improvements to his game and is a legitimate all-around takeover threat entering his age-26 season. But the recognition and impact on winning haven’t always been there. With just two years remaining on his massive contract with the New Orleans Pelicans, that reputation could use a push in the right direction.

Up-and-Comer: Immanuel Quickley
The 2022-23 season was, by far, Immanuel Quickley’s best yet. While cutting back on his turnovers and upping his scoring rate, he also figured out how to shoot with much more efficiency, posting a 57.8 true shooting percentage 3.5 points better than what he’d rung up the previous go-round.
But if Quickley is to make a genuine star turn and blossom into more than a scoring spark primarily operating off the bench, now would be a good time to give the New York Knicks a reason for optimism.
Up-and-Comer: RJ Barrett
Per Spotrac, RJ Barrett has the 61st-biggest cap hit for the 2023-24 season.
Per FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric, RJ Barrett had minus-0.7 WAR in 2022-23, which left him sandwiched between P.J. Washington and Jordan Poole at No. 236 overall.
Something isn’t adding up.
Veteran: Julius Randle
Can Julius Randle string together enough steady performances that Knicks fans actually know how to feel about him?
He regained his All-NBA form during the 2022-23 regular season, averaging 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists as an all-around weapon for a squad that challenged for home-court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Then he put up a massive stinker in those playoffs, looking completely lost and ineffective on the offensive end.
The seesaw experience must end expediently.

Incoming Rookie: Chet Holmgren
Chet Holmgren figured out a great way to ratchet up the pressure faced by a No. 2 overall pick. Just sit out a should-be rookie year with a season-ending injury suffered before games start counting.
The big man’s upside is drool-inspiring, but he now has to prove both his skills on the court and his ability to remain healthy.
Up-and-Comer: Jalen Williams
Going purely by a smorgasbord of advanced metrics, Jalen Williams had a serious case to win Rookie of the Year over Paolo Banchero despite his lack of eye-popping box-score figures.
Of course, the Oklahoma City Thunder also figured out just how good he was as the season progressed, allowing him to average 18.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists while slashing 54.6/42.9/88.0 after the All-Star break. If he can continue on that trajectory, the aforementioned portion of the calendar might not be much of a break for him in the not-too-distant future.
Up-and-Comer: Josh Giddey
Josh Giddey improved across the board in 2022-23, becoming one of the deadliest distributors in the sport. And he might not be done getting better, either.
The oversized Australian guard will have only just celebrated his 21st birthday when the 2023-24 season tips off.

Up-and-Comer: Paolo Banchero
Even though Paolo Banchero won Rookie of the Year, he has to prove that he can smooth out the warts in his game and contribute to the winning cause. In other words, he probably needs to shoot better than 42.7 percent from the field and 29.8 percent from downtown, cut back on some of the unnecessary turnovers that stem from wild kick-out passes and show far more resistance on the defensive end.
He has the hardware on his mantle and all the upside in the world, but the Orlando Magic saw their net rating dip by 4.4 points per 100 possessions in his minutes.
Up-and-Comer: Jalen Suggs
A smaller role (23.5 minutes per game) helped Jalen Suggs regain some of his efficiency, no longer forcing the issue to nearly the same extent on the offensive end. Hitting far more shots from the field, rising above the 30 percent threshold from three-point range and cutting back on unforced errors went a long way in moving him away from bust territory.
But a smaller role isn’t the goal for the No. 5 overall pick of the 2021 NBA draft.
Up-and-Comer: Jonathan Isaac
Yes, Jonathan Isaac still falls into the “Up-and-Comer” category because he’s entering just his fifth NBA season despite coming off the board at No. 6 overall in 2017.
Therein lies the reason for his inclusion.
Isaac has played just 147 games over the last six seasons, missing both the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns while recovering from the torn ACL that cut his 2019-20 short at 34 games and playing just 11 contests last year before season-ending surgery to repair a torn left adductor. He’s running out of chances to prove he can stay even remotely healthy.

Up-and-Comer: Tyrese Maxey
Can Tyrese Maxey join the “that dude” fraternity?
He’s close as he enters his age-23 season, and he crested north of the 20-point threshold last year while maintaining supreme shooting efficiency. If he can maintain that level of performance and avoid taking (slight) steps in the wrong direction during postseason play, that would go a long way.
Veteran: Joel Embiid
Whether fair or not, Joel Embiid has to endure the potential flipping of a major narrative that played at least some part in his MVP victory.
A portion of the case against Nikola Jokić was that the Denver Nuggets big man hadn’t put together strong postseason resumes after winning back-to-back MVPs. But then it was Embiid who struggled to stay healthy and fell apart in the second round of the playoffs while his fiercest rival put together an all-time postseason run.
Yeah, that’ll be a talking point.
Veteran: Tobias Harris
Tobias Harris, he of zero All-Star appearances and a 2022-23 campaign in which he averaged 14.66 points (his lowest mark since 2013-14), is making $39.3 million in the final year of his massive contract.

Veteran: Jusuf Nurkić
The newest member of the Phoenix Suns thanks to a blockbuster Giannis Antetokounmpo deal, Jusuf Nurkić is about to play in meaningful games again.
He hasn’t been as effective on defense since suffering a broken leg in 2019-20, but his skill set might be the perfect complement to the high-scoring efforts of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. He’s a physical player on both ends of the floor who shouldn’t require the same number of touches to keep his motor running that Deandre Ayton once did.
Of course, Phoenix supporters aren’t likely to give him the longest runway considering the immediate expectations of contention.
Veteran: Devin Booker
Devin Booker doesn’t really have to prove his bona fides at this stage of his impressive career, but he can still enter the heart of the MVP discussion if he’s able to maintain his level of play from last postseason.
The 2-guard averaged a staggering 33.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 7.2 assists while shooting 58.5 percent from the field and 50.8 percent from downtown against the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, looking the part of a human flamethrower up until an elimination game in the second round.
Those shooting percentages are obviously unsustainable, but Booker felt more unguardable than ever when games mattered most.
Veteran: Bradley Beal
Bradley Beal has put up plenty of big numbers for the Washington Wizards during his 11 years in the Association, but you’re not too far off if you feel he’s been prematurely shut down for the season more frequently than he’s played in high-stakes playoff games.
His career has featured three postseason series victories (none since 2017), five playoff berths (none since 2021), zero Eastern Conference Finals appearances and four seasons with winning records (none since 2017-18). Expectations are going to be far different in the desert.

Incoming Rookie: Scoot Henderson
Without Damian Lillard in the fold, Scoot Henderson is the future of the franchise. And especially since his career will be inextricably intertwined with Victor Wembanyama’s, that means the pressure cooker is already getting turned up.
Henderson is a tremendous athlete and all-around talent with a game reminiscent of peak Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook or [insert uber-athletic guard here]. Putting that on display from the get-go and avoiding typical rookie pitfalls will be a crucial component of the long-term narrative.
Veteran: Anfernee Simons
Whereas Henderson is the long-term cornerstone, Anfernee Simons is the present ringleader of the Portland Trail Blazers.
The 24-year-old guard burst onto the scene in a featured role last year, averaging 21.1 points and 4.1 dimes without sacrificing too much efficiency, and now he’ll be tasked with carrying Rip City back into the postseason picture and staving off Henderson in the race to be the guy for the Blazers.
Veteran: Deandre Ayton
It’s not exactly a well-kept secret that Phoenix Suns fans were displeased with Deandre Ayton’s development—or lack thereof.
Rather than continuing to maximize his monumental potential and developing into a physical force in the paint who plays with takeover aggression, the big man has seemed content to fade into the background as an efficient tertiary option. That won’t cut it now that he’s moving to Rip City as a key part of the return in the Damian Lillard trade package.

Up-and-Comer: Davion Mitchell
The No. 9 overall pick of the 2021 NBA draft, Davion Mitchell took a significant step backward last year. He made 10 fewer starts and averaged 9.6 fewer minutes per contest as the Sacramento Kings rotation improved enough to end a lengthy postseason drought.
He didn’t do much during the postseason, either. Though he played 20 minutes per game because the matchup with the Golden State Warriors necessitated more perimeter defense against the Splash Brothers and Co., he largely failed to make his team better during his run.
Up-and-Comer: Keegan Murray
Coming off a campaign in which he fired away from deep 6.3 times per game and connected at a 41.1 percent clip, we know Keegan Murray can shoot. But how much can the rest of his game develop as he strives to make the difficult leap from valuable role player to key cog on a legitimate contender?
Murray seems to have the game necessary to improve in all facets, but that’s still easier said than done.
Veteran: Malik Monk
If Malik Monk is to continue serving as a top-end spark off the bench who factors into yearly Sixth Man of the Year debates, he’ll have to play with just a bit more efficiency. Slashing 44.8/35.9/88.9 is solid, but that represents a step down from his prior breakout with the Los Angeles Lakers, and his shooting stroke all but disappeared against the Dubs.

Incoming Rookie: Victor Wembanyama
Yeah, this one is pretty obvious.
Victor Wembanyama is entering the NBA with as much hype as anyone in the last few decades—maybe even longer than that?—and has a body type that hasn’t always allowed for long-term success. The expectations have crescendoed to a point where anything short of multiple MVPs and titles will disappoint at least a select few San Antonio Spurs fans.
That’s a lot of pressure for a 19-year-old, but Wembanyma seems capable of shouldering it with aplomb.
Up-and-Comer: Devin Vassell
If Wembanyama is going to carry the Spurs into immediate postseason contention, a rather tricky task following a 22-win campaign that marked a fourth consecutive lottery appearance, he’ll need help from the supporting cast. Thanks to his two-way game, Devin Vassell is the prime candidate to assert himself as a capable Robin.
He already made impressive volume-efficiency dual strides last year, but he’ll need to do even more both to satiate San Antonio’s thirst for postseason basketball and to maximize his earning potential while playing out the final year of his contract.
Veteran: Cedi Osman
Cedi Osman never quite panned out over six years with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he’s now on the final season of a four-year, $31.1 million extension he signed in October 2019.
If he can’t become a more accurate sharpshooter or find other ways to contribute positively despite the lackluster San Antonio roster offering plenty of opportunities, then he could have trouble finding a palatable next contract.

Up-and-Comer: Scottie Barnes
The Toronto Raptors certainly couldn’t have been pleased with the lack of development Scottie Barnes showed after winning Rookie of the Year in 2021-22. His percentages declined from the field and three-point territory, and the passing strides he made didn’t do enough to counteract the lack of added scoring juice.
Granted, the Raptors spent what felt like the entire season in flux. But Barnes is supposed to be a franchise centerpiece north of the border and absolutely has the talent to develop into one of the NBA’s top 10 players. Now he just needs to move firmly and intractably in that direction.
Veteran: O.G. Anunoby
O.G. Anunoby remains a defensive menace for the Raptors, but how much more room to grow does he possess? Is he going to settle in as a consistent All-Defensive member who averages fewer than 20 points per game? Will he support his point-preventing chops with even more production of his own?
With a $19.9 million player option for 2024-25 looming, he’s running out of time to prove he can move in the latter direction before potentially hitting free agency.
Veteran: Pascal Siakam
A trade hasn’t yet come to fruition, but Pascal Siakam could feasibly play out the final season of his four-year, $136.9 million extension for a different organization.
He’s coming off the two best individual seasons of his career but will turn 30 in April, so proving he can either maintain this level or keep moving toward the All-NBA first team would go a long way for his earning potential.

Veteran: John Collins
Remember when the Atlanta Hawks thought they might get some first-rounders or a fellow star back in a John Collins trade package?
Well, the Utah Jazz wound up acquiring him for just Rudy Gay and a 2026 second-round pick. Collins is now four seasons removed from his last 20/10 campaign and has a lot of work to do in Salt Lake City if he’s to rehabilitate perception in a crowded frontcourt.
Veteran: Collin Sexton
Collin Sexton did his job over 48 appearances for Utah last season, but that’s only if his job is limited to scoring. It’ll be tough for him to carve out an even bigger role if he can’t put more passing chops on display or hold his own defensively.
Veteran: Lauri Markkanen
Lauri Markkanen, the reigning Most Improved Player, experienced quite the out-of-nowhere breakout after moving from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Jazz. For perspective, he added 3.3 value over replacement player after tallying a combined 3.9 during his first five NBA go-rounds.
Proving the sustainability of that star power is the next step.

Up-and-Comer: Corey Kispert
Billed as one of the best shooters in the 2021 draft class, Corey Kispert made massive strides during his sophomore season by averaging 11.1 points and connecting on 42.4 percent of his 5.2 triples per game. If he can remain a sniper of that caliber, he should only continue to carve out more time for a Washington Wizards organization fully in rebuilding mode.
But the downside of that rebuilding mode, at least from Kispert’s perspective, has to be that the increasing number of upside plays on the wings guarantees a shorter leash if those deep looks don’t keep falling.
Up-and-Comer: Johnny Davis
Usually, teams expect more than 5.8 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.0 assists on 38.6/24.3/51.9 shooting from top-10 picks.
Johnny Davis suffered a hip injury that derailed the early portion of his rookie campaign, but it’s not like his shooting stroke was much better in the G League. Over 19 appearances for the Capital City Go-Go, he connected on just 40.4 percent of his field-goal attempts and 31.1 percent of his triples.
Up-and-Comer: Jordan Poole
Jordan Poole’s 2022-23 season began with a knockout blow delivered by Draymond Green, and it never got much better.
Even though he averaged a career-high 20.4 points, his penchant for bad decision-making, disappearing three-point stroke and invisibility on defense made it hard for him to inspire much confidence. That culminated in just 21.8 minutes per game and absences in crucial moments during the playoffs.
Poole gets a fresh start with the Wizards following an offseason trade, and he has a lot of work to do to justify the exorbitant contract (four years, $140 million) attached to his name.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference.

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