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NBA Executives Poll: Top Breakout Players for the 2023-24 Season – Hoops Hype
October 11, 2023– by Michael Scotto
By Michael Scotto |
Which players will make the biggest leaps in their games across the league?
HoopsHype polled 25 NBA executives to determine who will be the top breakout candidates this season. Each executive was asked to list his top three players who will have a breakout campaign.
Some executives voted for a younger player who’ll thrive with an increased role. Others voted for players on the cusp of becoming potential All-Stars for the first time.
Recent poll winners included Tyrese Maxey last season and Darius Garland the year before when he became an All-Star for the first time.
After receiving the feedback from the executives, the voting results were tabulated, with the top player receiving five points, the second receiving three points, and the third receiving one point for each ballot.
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Share of the vote: 34.4 percent of the maximum amount possible
Franz Wagner narrowly beat Cade Cunningham for the top breakout candidate of the 2023-24 season in our HoopsHype executives poll. Wagner received at least one vote from 15 of the 25 executives polled, the most of any player.
“I saw Franz Wagner a ton last year, and he’s really good,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “His shooting will be the swing skill. If he consistently knocks that down at a higher clip, he’ll be a 20-plus scorer.”
This summer, Wagner helped Germany capture its first FIBA World Cup gold medal and was named an All-FIBA World Cup Second Team selection.
“Franz Wagner had a great World Cup,” another NBA executive noted. “He does so many things and is only scratching the surface of how good he can be.”
Adding further fuel to the fire ahead of Wagner’s third NBA campaign, Orlando Magic coach Jamahl Mosley recently compared Wagner’s footwork to a mixture of Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant during his HoopsHype podcast appearance.
MORE: Franz Wagner draws Detlef Schrempf comparison
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images
Share of the vote: 32.8 percent of the maximum amount possible
Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham was voted the top breakout player by seven NBA executives, the most of any player in our HoopsHype poll.
“Cade Cunningham’s combination of size and skill, along with health and an extra year of experience, is why I think he can break out this season,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “I like Monty Williams’ ability to motivate him, but I’m not sure what the style of play will be.”
Another NBA executive noted Cunningham had a “big summer at USA Basketball,” which he believed would push the 22-year-old guard forward exponentially in his development this season.
Cunningham, who’s shot 30.9 percent from beyond the arc in 76 career games, will look to improve his outside shooting in his third season. Similarly to Wagner, outside shooting is considered a swing skill for Cunningham by executives.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Share of the vote: 22.4 percent of the maximum amount possible
Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green garnered considerable buzz this summer from playing in open runs with fellow NBA players. Four executives polled agreed with the hype and voted Green their top breakout candidate this season.
“Jalen Green has steadily improved since he entered the league,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “With Houston’s veteran additions making his life easier, he could flourish this year with his shot-making combined with ridiculous explosion.”
Another executive also believed the increased veteran presence around Green would elevate his game and IQ while adding the expected departure of Kevin Porter Jr. should increase his usage rate and production.
Lastly, the addition of coach Ime Udoka is expected to help Green maximize his potential and build winning habits for the 21-year-old guard after enduring a 42-122 record in his first two seasons in Houston.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Share of the vote: 20 percent of the maximum amount possible
After showing glimpses of what he can be as a go-to option for Brooklyn, the question surrounding Mikal Bridges is if he can produce as efficiently as he did in the second half of last year as a Net for an entire season.
Four NBA executives polled believe Bridges will be the top breakout player this season.
“Mikal Bridges has always been considered a premier defender, but after the midseason trade to Brooklyn last year, he also showed his scoring prowess without sacrificing efficiency,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “He averaged nine more points per game in Brooklyn (26.1) than he did in Phoenix (17.2) last season, but at roughly the same efficiency from beyond the arc in fewer minutes per game. One big key was that he was much more aggressive on the offensive end after the trade, getting to the foul line at over twice the rate as in Phoenix (6.6 versus 3.1 free throws). Look for that to continue as he feeds off his USA Basketball experience this past summer.”
If Bridges can maintain his statistical averages of 26.1 points on 47.5 percent shooting from the field and 4.5 rebounds in 27 games for the Nets last season – along with stout defensive play guarding the opposing team’s top perimeter scorer – he’ll be a strong All-Star candidate.
Elsa/Getty Images
Share of the vote: 11.2 percent of the maximum amount possible
Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley will attempt to build off his All-Defensive campaign last season by striving to make his first All-Star team in the near future.
Mobley was voted the top breakout candidate by two NBA executives polled by HoopsHype.
If rumors of rival teams attempting to trade for Jarrett Allen come to fruition, Mobley would be given more offensive opportunities and have the paint all to himself to potentially average a double-double each night.
Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
Share of the vote: 10.4 percent of the maximum amount possible
Portland Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe is a human highlight reel capable of winning a Slam Dunk Contest one day, while some in Portland believe he has potential All-Star upside.
The Blazers have begun a rebuild after trading Damian Lillard, and it’s worth noting Sharpe averaged 14 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 22 games without Lillard last season, per Stat Muse.
“An extra year of experience, a consistent opportunity, and Portland’s style of play should benefit Shaedon Sharpe this season,” an NBA executive who voted Sharpe as his top breakout candidate told HoopsHype.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Share of the vote: 9.6 percent of the maximum amount possible
Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. was compared to Rashard Lewis, Chris Bosh, and even Kevin Durant before the draft, with Lewis representing his floor and Bosh or Durant as his ceiling.
His ability to guard multiple positions with his athleticism and strength that will continue to grow over time intrigues executives across the league, including one who voted Smith Jr. with his top breakout player vote in our HoopsHype poll.
“Jabari Smith Jr. was on a tear to end last year and continued that trend through a monster summer,” an NBA executive who gave Smith Jr. a second-place vote on his ballot told HoopsHype. “Plus, his struggles as a rookie were primarily shooting-related, which is the one thing everyone knows he can do. His ability to put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim actually exceeded pre-draft expectations. As one of the youngest players in the league last year, he could be poised for a breakout season.”
During the final 17 games of last season, Smith Jr. averaged 16.4 points on 46.5 percent shooting from the field and 35.6 percent from beyond the arc, with 8.2 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game.
“I think Jabari is going to be a sleeper due to Houston’s style of play and increase in talent around him,” another NBA executive opined.
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images
Share of the vote: 8.8 percent of the maximum amount possible
Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray was an All-Rookie selection last season after starting 78 of 80 games and efficiently spacing the floor as a knockdown three-point shooter (41.1 percent).
Heading into this season, Murray received one executive’s vote to be the top breakout player. However, with Sacramento’s starting lineup all returning this season, led by All-NBA standouts De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, Murray’s ceiling is capped as being Sacramento’s third-highest scorer this season whether he improves steadily or exponentially.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Share of the vote: 6.4 percent of the maximum amount possible
After entering the NBA undrafted, Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves became a starter, signed a four-year, $54 million deal this offseason, and played for Team USA in the FIBA World Cup.
One NBA executive believes Reaves has more development ahead of him and voted for the 25-year-old guard as his top breakout candidate this season.
In 22 starts last season, Reaves averaged 15.1 points on 51 percent shooting from the field and 40.2 percent from three-point range with 4.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds.
MORE: Austin Reaves on, LeBron James, Alex Caruso comparisons
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Share of the vote: 6.4 percent of the maximum amount possible
Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane was off to a blistering pace of 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists in the first 12 games last season before suffering a toe injury.
“Desmond Bane can definitely be an All-Star or All-NBA player this season,” an NBA executive who voted for Bane as one of his top breakout players this season told HoopsHype.
With Ja Morant suspended for 25 games to start the season, Bane will have to carry a similar scoring load as he did to start last season and continue showing improved playmaking ability for Memphis to weather the storm.
Ryan Lim/AFP via Getty Images
Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota)
Share of the vote: 5.6 percent of the maximum amount possible
One executive voted for Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels – who’s a potential All-Defensive Team candidate – as his top breakout player this season.
McDaniels, who is eligible for a contract extension, is a player Timberwolves executive Tim Connelly wants in Minnesota “as long as possible.”
MORE: Jaden McDaniels: ‘I could be one of the best two-way players in the NBA’
Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
Josh Giddey (Oklahoma City)
Share of the vote: 4 percent of the maximum amount possible
Thunder guard Josh Giddey took a major step last season offensively by increasing his scoring (12.5 to 16.6) and improved as a shooter across the board from the field (.419 to .482), three-point line (.263 to .325) and foul line (.709 to .731).
If Oklahoma City is going to become a playoff team and avoid the Play-In Tournament again, Giddey will have to take another step forward in his development.
MORE: Jalen Williams on tanking and Sam Presti’s vision
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Dillon Brooks (Houston)
Share of the vote: 3.2 percent of the maximum amount possible
After a rough playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers with the Memphis Grizzlies, Dillon Brooks signed a four-year, $86 million guaranteed contract with the Houston Rockets and was the sixth-highest rated NBA player in the FIBA World Cup according to our HoopsHype Global Rating.
Brooks was signed to bring veteran leadership as an All-Defensive Team player to a young Rockets squad looking to turn the page as a franchise from years of rebuilding.
“Dillon Brooks is a great breakout candidate because the narrative around him got so out of control last year,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype. “As we saw in the World Cup, he’s an elite defensive player who is a good offensive player. He doesn’t have to change at all, but now that he’s a name that’s on the radar, people will suddenly realize what he really is.”
Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
Walker Kessler (Utah)
Share of the vote: 1.6 percent of the maximum amount possible
Utah’s Walker Kessler averaged a double-double in 40 starts last season (11.5 points and 10.2 rebounds). Kessler could make an All-Defensive Team case as a full-time starter this season.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Poole and Tyus Jones (Washington), Nic Claxton (Brooklyn), Scottie Barnes (Toronto)
Share of the vote: 0.8 percent of the maximum amount possible
Washington’s Jordan Poole is expected to have the highest usage rating of his career as one of the team’s top go-to scorers, and Tyus Jones – who was considered arguably the league’s best backup point guard behind Ja Morant – will have a chance to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career during a contract season.
At Media Day, Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton said he felt “robbed” of an All-Defensive Team selection last season and is motivated to earn that distinction this season in a contract year, which could ultimately net him a $100 million contract, according to teammate Spencer Dinwiddie.
Toronto’s Scottie Barnes has remained untouchable in trade talks, with the Raptors continuing to value him as a franchise cornerstone.
You can follow Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) on Twitter.
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