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Five Players Who Will Define the 2023-24 NBA Season – The Ringer
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A boom-or-bust MVP candidate, two new arrivals, and two longtime cornerstones adapting to new situations
The NBA preseason is upon us, which means the real thing is right around the corner. Which players, teams, and story lines will drive the title race—and news cycle—over the next six months? This week, The Ringer is doing its best to provide an answer in Five Columns That Will Define the ’23-24 NBA Season. First up, the players.
Every NBA season is defined by a select few of the league’s 450-plus players. A few superstars, one or two standout rookies, a very short list of relevant X factors who lift the contenders they play for. Selecting just five names is next to impossible, but the ones we landed on are guaranteed to answer the questions we’re asking about them one way or another over the next six months.
It’s very possible that all of them make the All-Star Game. It’s just as likely none do. More importantly, this season’s title race could hinge on how well these five players adapt to their surroundings, or whether they can manage to stay healthy. It’s a talented and fascinating group that we’ll be watching closely all season long.
It’s easy to forget how tight Zion’s chokehold is on every interior defense in the NBA. His floor is “dejected, out-of-shape, serious-injury-waiting-to-happen trade candidate.” His ceiling? Most Valuable Player. That’s the reality. That’s how unstoppable and tantalizing Zion is as he enters the fifth season of what can still be a Hall of Fame career.
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Williamson has played just 29 games since 2021, and in those contests he averaged 12.5 points on drives (more than everyone except Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, and Ja Morant) and 19.1 points in the paint (more than anyone, period). He has yet to log a single possession of playoff basketball, but when Zion’s active the Pelicans look like world beaters. Last season, they outscored opponents by 7.8 points per 100 possessions, grabbed 31.9 percent of their own missed shots, and played at a blistering pace. On January 2, the day Williamson played his last game, New Orleans was 23-14, third place in the Western Conference. One month later they were 26-27, down in 10th.
At media day, Pelicans head coach Willie Green said Zion will spend time at the 5 this season, in units that can be disastrous for both New Orleans and its opponents. A blunt, irrepressible force on one end, light cobwebs on the other. But if the Pelicans find a way to get stops—Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Brandon Ingram, and Trey Murphy III are all at least 6-foot-7 and able to guard several positions—they can put the ball in Williamson’s hands (remember Point Zion?), invert the floor, and steamroll the opposition. It’s easy to daydream about what’s possible in New Orleans when Williamson is healthy enough to compete: deep playoff runs, title contention, and even a parade could be in the cards. But when he’s out, rumors, questions, and doubt about his ability to lead a franchise swirl. It’s such a wide spectrum of possibility, and the ramifications will be huge.
Porzingis was expected to be an important contributor for the Celtics when they traded Marcus Smart and altered their identity to get him. But this month’s deal for Jrue Holiday that sent Robert Williams III out the door made KP more essential than originally expected.
• Five Players
• Five Teams
• Five Rivalries
• Coming Thursday: Five Trade Candidates
• Coming Friday: Five Questions
For detractors who worry about his injury history and what it means on a seemingly imbalanced and thin roster, Boston’s risk outweighs the potential reward. But until he actually gets hurt, Porzingis poses some fascinating and perhaps more meaningful basketball questions. Where and how often will he get his touches? Who does he fit best next to? And, most importantly, how satisfied will he be assuming responsibilities that are more narrow (albeit critical) than any he’s had since entering the NBA?
Boston’s success hinges on these answers. It’s possible, if not likely, that Porzingis’s gravity will make life easier for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Holiday, and everybody else. He’s also somewhat of a 7-3 curveball for defenses that are locked into stopping all of Boston’s wings and guards. Joe Mazzulla can get creative with how he uses Porzingis, be it running off wide pindowns, setting ball screens near midcourt, keeping dribble handoffs, isolating at the elbow with plenty of room to operate, or taking advantage of obvious mismatches in the post.
Boston hasn’t had that type of hardware in a long time, if ever. Porzingis’s range keeps defenders honest. His size forces everyone to pay attention. If he buys in and sacrifices—i.e., happily doing the dirty work most big men have to accept—the sky truly is the limit for this Celtics offense. But as it relates to Boston’s march toward a championship, it’s on defense where his effectiveness against the physical behemoths who are likely to stand in his team’s way is worth a look.
By himself, Porzingis is not a solution for Giannis Antetokounmpo. (In his career, Porzingis has surrendered more points per matchup than all but seven defenders who have matched up with Giannis at least 100 times.)
In a couple of the plays seen above, Antetokounmpo hunts Porzingis. It’s a clear advantage, and in spots when Kristaps finds himself on Giannis, he’ll need to be better. But that doesn’t mean Boston can’t gameplan around it. This is still a versatile, strong, highly intelligent defense.
On paper, the Celtics are this season’s most talented team and should be considered a favorite to win the title. Porzingis is a big reason why; there’s a decent chance, as it relates to Porzingis’s health, that Brad Stevens’s gamble to acquire the 28-year-old will pay off. (Since the 2019-20 season, Porzingis has played only about 100 fewer minutes than Draymond Green.) But if Porzingis disappoints, especially on the defensive end in a playoff series where he struggles to hold up, the remodeling of this roster could go horribly wrong.
In the last two years, Bradley Beal was best known for his exorbitant, cap-sheet-paralyzing contract. The team that signed him to it wasn’t ever any good, and, as their best player, Beal bore the brunt of that criticism. All of that is irrelevant now, and for the first time in a long time, Beal will be judged by what he can do on the court, as the most talented and accomplished third wheel in the NBA.
The fit in Phoenix is a lot cleaner than people seem to comprehend. Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker are all efficient, three-level scorers who can leverage the attention defenses give them to get their teammates open shots. But even more important, for all three but especially Beal, is how comfortable they are off the ball. If all goes according to plan, Phoenix could have one of the greatest offenses ever assembled.
For that to happen, Beal will need to sacrifice more touches and shots than he ever has. He’ll also probably take more catch-and-shoot 3s and have more chances to drive a hard closeout and attack a compromised defense. Beal can feast in the midrange, which may be a mathematical quagmire beside two other stars most comfortable in the same area, but that redundancy is less concerning when you realize that Beal is also an incredible finisher. Last season, he averaged 4.9 shots per game in the restricted area and converted 71.6 percent of them; nobody his size was that accurate on a reasonable volume. Some of that was thanks to all of the room Kristaps Porzingis provided, but Phoenix will not be starved for space.
How Beal adjusts to what should be a clean, tight, mutually beneficial situation is not only crucial for the Suns, but it could very well decide this season’s champ. Phoenix is all in to win the title, having surrendered all its first-round picks through 2030, with a $56.7 million luxury tax bill and payroll that nearly reaches $190 million. Depth is less of an issue after the Deandre Ayton trade, but the Suns absolutely need Beal to not only stay healthy, but also accept and thrive in the diminished albeit crucial role that they’ve carved out for him.
Now two full seasons removed from two years of pain, rehabilitation, and the question marks that pop up when a basketball player tears their ACL and ruptures their Achilles tendon, Thompson’s ability to maximize everything his body has to offer is one of this season’s major variables.
There’s no reason why the 33-year-old can’t make another All-Star team. His lateral mobility isn’t where it once was, which limits his value defending on the perimeter. But the basic numbers—21.9 points per game while making over 40 percent of the 11 3s he launched every night in 2022-23—are impressive enough on a team that’s expected to win. There’s one area of his game, though, that may seem granular yet speaks to the efficacy of Golden State’s extravagant offensive structure.
Since Thompson’s return from those major injuries, only 5.9 percent of his shots have come within 3 feet of the rim. That number dropped even further, to 4.6 percent, in last year’s playoffs. Some of this is due to an aging body and different personnel, but at his peak Klay aggressively sought back cuts, drove on hard closeouts, and had trust in a first step that could turn the corner off a pindown. In 2019, the percentage of Thompson’s shots at the rim was 13.8. The year before Kevin Durant joined the Warriors, in 2016, it was 18.2. Those aren’t humongous numbers, but they’re significantly higher than his recent output. If he can’t find that same burst or looks tentative getting downhill, well, here you go:
It will be fascinating to see how all this relates to Thompson’s chemistry with Chris Paul. As a prototypical 2 guard, Klay doesn’t have much experience beside a pass-first floor general, someone who can find shooters in transition, curling off a screen, or shaking up the sideline during a high pick-and-roll. (Draymond Green has assumed that role for years.)
When Paul, Thompson, Green, and Stephen Curry are all on the court, it’ll be interesting to see whether Thompson—surrounded by visionary passers and A-plus shooting—can find more scoring opportunities around the basket. It’s a small albeit important detail in Klay’s game, and the Warriors may need it back.
Tucked inside Milwaukee’s calamitous first-round loss to the Heat—a series defined by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s back injury, Miami’s absurd 3-point shooting, and Jimmy Butler single-handedly turning Jrue Holiday into someone the Bucks saw as expendable—was a simultaneously unnerving and vintage performance by Khris Middleton that created more questions about his future than it answered.
In five uneven games, the three-time All-Star averaged 23.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists, made just over 40 percent of his 3s, and finished 11-for-19 from midrange. Coming off an injury-riddled and inefficient regular season, these numbers were embraced with open arms.
But the consistent ability to create separation wasn’t there. Middleton couldn’t elevate to a higher plane and own a stretch of the game. He had his way with smaller defenders like Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo, but otherwise struggled, missing well over half his shots in the paint. Middleton just wasn’t the same guy, especially on defense, where Miami went out of its way to hunt him.
Now, at 32 years old, newly re-signed to a three-year, $93 million deal, and coming off a knee surgery that may sideline him to start the season, it’s hard not to wonder what, exactly, the Bucks are getting from Middleton. And the stakes are higher than ever, with long-term tension that persists in Milwaukee even after the team traded for Damian Lillard. It’s a championship-or-bust season, and Middleton’s ability to hold up on the perimeter is a momentous variable that has the potential to either undo or fortify the Bucks’ new superstar tandem.
But even if he’s healthy and back to his old self, Middleton still must adjust. As the third man on Milwaukee’s call sheet, his opportunities to score and create will tick down, but when he does have the ball in his hands he should be able to roast opponents in the half-court while exerting minimal energy.
If he’s closer to a turnstile than a reliable on-ball defender, though, Milwaukee’s floor drops much lower than it’s been since 2019. And in the playoffs, in lineups that could have several pressure points for opponents to squeeze, the need to score will be greater than most champions feel.
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