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College basketball transfer portal: Texas Longhorns' prized addition of Max Abmas improves 3-point shooting – 247Sports
A Texas basketball player has not splashed 100 3-pointers in a single season since A.J. Abrams in 2008-09. That record is in serious jeopardy after star Oral Roberts transfer Max Abmas picked Texas on Thursday over Kansas State and Wichita State to put a bow on a dazzling four-day span for Rodney Terry. Do-it-all forward Dylan Disu and Virginia transfer Kadin Shedrick both announced Sunday they would suit up for Texas next season. Texas’ frontcourt is brimming with talent. Now, a big piece of the backcourt puzzle is filled as Terry looks to build off Texas’ run to the Elite Eight last season.
Abmas –– the pride and joy of Rockwall, Texas –– averaged 21.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists this past season while shooting 37.3% from downtown. Texas has now landed two of the top-17 players in the transfer portal.
Landing Abmas not only helps Texas get closer to a Big 12 championship next season, but it sends a painful reminder to Kansas State and Baylor that Texas is in a different tax bracket in the Big 12’s talent-acquisition arms race.
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Here is a deep dive into how Abmas fits with Texas (both good and bad) and what realistic expectations should be:
Abmas owns a familiar name, face and game. Abmas made a name for himself in the 2021 NCAA Tournament when he led Oral Roberts to the Sweet 16 with three-straight 25-plus point explosions. Abmas did not stay at Oral Roberts because he couldn’t play at the high-major level. Even though he would’ve been a coveted piece in the transfer portal, Abmas chose to stay at Oral Roberts for all four seasons. He was loyal to Paul Mills, the former Baylor assistant who took over Oral Roberts and recruited Abmas.
“I think the end goal is, not just to get all this NIL money, the end goal for me is to play professionally in the NBA for as long as I can play,” Abmas said. “Just understanding that, and understanding that the grass isn’t necessarily greener on the other side, and understanding what I had here at Oral Roberts and the relationship that I’ve built over the last few years.”
When Mills decided to leave Oral Roberts after a six-year rebuild culminated in a 30-win, 2022-23 season, Abmas also chose to exit stage left. Kansas State made a strong impression on Abmas. Mills made a push for Abmas to reunite with him at Wichita State.
Texas won.
Now, the fun can begin.
Every hooper has a job. At Oral Roberts, Abmas was the head of the snake offensively. Abmas averaged 21.9 points per game with a 27.5% usage rate. New prized Penn transfer Jordan Dingle averaged 23.4 points per game (second-best in college basketball) but he owned a 32.2% usage rate. Abmas had the ball in his hands a ton at Oral Roberts and became one of the best pure scorers in the country, but he isn’t a ball-pounding, dribble-heavy, James Harden-like guard.
Abmas is a willing passer who makes strong reads and moves without the basketball smartly. He caught a ton of defenders napping with well-timed back-cuts, and he darts in and out of screens like Steph Curry has made a living doing.
That bodes well at Texas because if Tyrese Hunter returns, Abmas will have to share the wealth. Two high-level lead guards are vital to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Texas should have that with Abmas and Hunter.
With Sir’Jabari Rice, Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen departing, Texas needed a pure, raw bucket-getter.
Abmas has been getting buckets his entire life. Abmas is getting a promotion, but his job description has not changed an iota.
Hunter handled the ball often last year for Texas, but he was more of a pure point guard at Iowa State as a freshman. Due to the presence of Carr and the brilliance of Rice, Hunter shifted more into a play-finisher role last season with various levels of success. It was clunky for stretches, but Hunter delivered in March with a 19-point eruption in Texas’ Sweet 16 win over Xavier. Those learning moments could pay off if Hunter chooses to stick around for Year 2 at Texas because while Abmas is a scorer, his decision-making off pick-and-rolls has been masterful for the past three seasons.
Hunter and Abmas will both get chances to have point guard reps, but Abmas has proven to be a more reliable decision-maker in ball screens. Abmas averaged 0.915 points per possession in ball-screens last season which rated in the 82nd percentile nationally, per Synergy. Why? Because you die if you go under a ball screen against Abmas. Last season at Oral Roberts, Abmas made 49 3-pointers from beyond 25 feet. He did it with efficiency, too. Abmas shot 37.5% on above-the-break 3-pointers last season, according to CBB Analytics.
Abmas’ shooting gravity opens everything up for everyone else. Shedrick sets bone-crushing screens already, and he’ll have a runway down the seam for rim-rattling jams if opposing defenses try to swarm Abmas. The pick-and-pop game is there with Disu. Opposing defenses are so extended trying to keep Abmas in check which opens up acres of space to drive long closeouts. That’s money in the bank for Hunter who is electric when he can get downhill.
Texas’ ball-screen offense averaged just 0.723 points per possession in ball screens last year, according to Synergy, which was third-worst in the Big 12. It didn’t stop Texas from having the 15th-best offensive efficiency in the country, via KenPom, but that was more on the strength of elite defense fueling transition buckets and one-on-one brilliance getting it done in the halfcourt.
Texas’ ball-screen efficiency numbers should skyrocket with Abmas running the show. That’s good news for Hunter, Shedrick and Disu.
Abmas did not play well against the three best teams he faced last season.
Part of that is the way he was defended. Duke threw 6-foot-5 freshman Tyrese Proctor on him to start the game. Duke tried to have 7-foot-1, defensive monster Dereck Lively at the level of every single ball-screen Abmas ran. Duke committed two to the ball when Abmas had the rock, but Oral Roberts shot just 25% from 3-point range and, more importantly, just 35% on 2s.
That forced Abmas to really push the envelope offensively as the game got away from Oral Roberts. When Proctor got tired, it was defensive ace Mark Mitchell who took a turn on Abmas. Both Proctor and Mitchell –– a 6-foot-8, 205-pound freight train –– basically face-guarded Abmas at all times. He had absolutely no break from the relentless Duke pressure.
Saint Mary’s did similar things in ball-screen coverage against Abmas. But the personnel at Oral Roberts will be different than at Texas. Despite all that attention he demanded, Abmas still generated strong looks for his teammates. They couldn’t make Duke, Saint Mary’s or Houston pay enough for basically double-teaming Abmas and daring others to beat them.
Texas plans to have weapons that can take advantage of those 4-on-3 scenarios Abmas can create in ball screens.
If Hunter comes back (as expected), Texas is committed to starting two guards under 6-foot-2 for the second season in a row. Hunter and Abmas are both 6-foot, 175 pounds. While Abmas is not a stopper on defense, he’s certainly not a slouch, either. Bigger guards will be able to rise and fire over him with little resistance. Opposing Big 12 coaches will target him to see if he’s up to the challenge.
But Abmas had plenty of moments on film where he’s able to avoid getting screened. That’s huge for point-of-attack defense, and he doesn’t fall asleep off the ball. Being a solid, well-positioned defender who refuses to get screened can be very useful.
Will Abmas be an All-Big 12 defender? Nope. But that’s why a front line of Disu and Shedrick is so important. That’s also why getting Dillon Mitchell back for a second season would be enormous.
Jahmir Young went from 19.6 points per game at Charlotte to 15.8 points per game as Maryland’s lead dog. Young was an All-Big Ten selection.
Souley Boum went from 19.8 points per game at UTEP to 16.4 points per game as Xavier’s lead dog. Boum was the Player of the Year frontrunner in the Big East until Marquette’s Tyler Kolek (another mid-major transfer) stole it in the final hour.
Let’s assume Hunter and Mitchell are both back, and Ron Holland, who painfully decommitted Friday, chooses to go in a different direction. If Texas heads into 2023-24 with Abmas, Hunter, Mitchell, Disu, Cunningham and Shedrick as its six top players, Abmas has every opportunity to flirt with 17-19 points per game. He’ll toy with a 20% assist rate, too.
That’s a Big 12 Player of the Year contender.
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