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Wings vs Aces Odds, Picks & Predictions – WNBA September 24 – Covers
The Aces are hefty favorites for their semifinal opener vs. the Wings, with oddsmakers likely counting on a big game from A'ja Wilson. But our WNBA betting picks believe she'll have a difficult time solving this Dallas defense on Sunday afternoon.
After an interminable wait following the first round, the semifinals of the WNBA playoffs kick off on Sunday with one of the most anticipated matchups of the season between the Dallas Wings and the Las Vegas Aces.
Both teams completed dominant 2-0 sweeps of their first-round opposition, with the Aces demonstrating their star depth and the Wings dominating with their size. WNBA odds heavily favor another quick series win by the Aces, but Dallas is also one of the few teams this season to consistently compete against Las Vegas.
Our free WNBA picks and predictions for Game 1 of Wings vs. Aces believe Dallas’ lineup versatility will help keep A’ja Wilson in check.
A’ja Wilson is the reigning WNBA MVP and a now back-to-back winner of Defensive Player of the Year. Whether the Las Vegas Aces run away with this series against the Dallas Wings or not will in many ways come down to how she performs on both ends of the court. Against the Chicago Sky, A’ja was a two-way force, stuffing the stat sheet and helping the Aces cruise to victory.
But Dallas is a stiffer challenge.
The Wings have something that many teams don’t, in that they can show Wilson multiple kinds of looks. They can put a traditional five on her in Teaira McCowan, who is 6-foot-7 and weighs nearly fifty pounds more than Wilson. Wilson can’t move McCowan, and she can’t simply shoot over her either. She’s also rarely going to get her on tip-in going against her.
What A’ja can do is outmaneuver her, use dribbling and footwork to go around her. But if the Aces lean on the finesse elements of Wilson’s game, the Wings can go in another direction.
Satou Sabally is the same height as Wilson, and while not as physically strong, he’s more than capable of hanging with her in spots. If the Aces start working Wilson into the action through screens or movement, going with Satou might be the Wings’ answer because she’s capable of chasing around and through screens like a guard.
Or Dallas can split the difference and go with Natasha Howard. Howard had a quiet series against Atlanta, but she’s going to be desperately needed to match up with Las Vegas. She’s stronger than Satou but more mobile than McCowan, and by using all three the Wings can wear on Wilson over the course of 40 minutes.
On top of that, the Wings don’t have to play fair. When newly-minted Sixth Player of the Year Alysha Clark is in the game, the Aces can spread the Dallas defense out and they’ll have to cover their matchups honestly. But Las Vegas doesn’t start games in that alignment.
They start games with Kiah Stokes playing next to A’ja, and while she’s an outstanding defender, she’s a total non-factor on the perimeter. Howard, McCowan, Sabally, or whoever draws her assignment will be cheating off Stokes to pressure A’ja on the ball.
Wilson shot significantly worse against the Wings this year than her season averages, in large part due to the size and additional pressure they can put on the ball. In four games against the Wings this season A’ja has only scored more than 22 points once, and her shooting percentage from two was 12 points worse than her season average.
Wilson is an MVP, and it’s hard to bet against her in a big game like this. But she’s also a student of the game. She’ll realize the best path to victory will see her working more as a hub and pressure point than go-to scorer against Dallas. The Aces have too many weapons to force feed the action to Wilson when Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray have easier matchups and contexts to work with.
There are also significant differences across markets for A’ja’s points prop, with some as low as 21.5. Getting it at 23.5 is good business.
My best bet: A’ja Wilson Under 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)
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The spread for Game 1 has been set anywhere from -10 to -10.5 in favor of the defending champion Aces with little movement to speak of. The last time these two teams played, the Aces carried off a 20-point victory largely because of a 16-0 run in the first quarter spearheaded by a Las Vegas zone defense.
Dallas has struggled against zone defense this season despite having multiple quality isolation scorers in Sabally and Ogunbowale. Still, I expect Dallas to do a bit better this time, as the Wings will know some zone is coming because of how effective it was when these two teams last played. Dallas is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games and 6-0 ATS when they play on three or more days of rest.
The Aces were dominant against Chicago in the first round, but the Wings are a significant step up in competition. Before I lay any money on the spread this series, I need to see if the Wings have real answers to the Vegas zone. I’m staying away from betting the spread in this one.
Oddsmakers are also expecting an offensive showcase, with the total topping out at 174.5 for Sunday’s tilt.
As they did against everyone this season, the Wings dominated the rebounding battle against the Aces. If they win the battle on the glass, the Aces have to win elsewhere to turn the possession game in their favor. More rebounds equals more scoring. The Aces’ first-shot defense is superb, but offensive rebounding and size mean that Dallas will find ways to score against Las Vegas when they’re scrambling.
They rack up points through effort plays on the glass, so it’s not surprising that they tend to go Over when rested. The Over is 5-0 in the Wings’ last five games when they play on three or more days of rest.
The Aces will keep pace (and then some) with superior 3-point shooting, and it helps that they almost never turn the ball over. Perhaps the Wings will find a junk defense that forces more turnovers to even the odds, and against lineups featuring Stokes, I expect Dallas to aggressively cheat off her to both clog the lane and guarantee a high rate of defensive rebounding.
There’s a chance this game turns into a grind because the Aces defense at home has been fierce. The Under is 9-2 in their last nine home games. But I think both teams keep a high scoring tempo and I’d lean toward the Over even at this high number.
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Wings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days of rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Aces.
Wings: Lou Lopez G (Out). Diamond DeShields G (Out).
Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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