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Ranking the Most Underrated NBA Teams Entering 2023-24 – Bleacher Report
As we approach the start of NBA training camps later this month, all of the league’s teams are mostly formed. There will be a few players who snag roster spots just prior to the start of the regular season, but we at least know who’ll be the most important players for each squad.
That means we have enough information to throw out some takes, including which teams are the most underrated entering 2023-24.
Who’ll most thoroughly beat expectations (as determined by over-unders for win totals from FanDuel’s Sportsbook)? Scroll below to find out.
It’s fair to say that the Utah Jazz won’t catch as many teams by surprise this season. Now, everyone knows Lauri Markkanen is an All-Star. It’s pretty widely accepted that Walker Kessler is one of the game’s better rim protectors.
Opponents will be more prepared to face the Jazz in 2023-24. And if Utah’s out of the hunt for a playoff spot in February or March, it might start to make decisions aimed at improving draft position (like it did in 2023).
But the NBA’s new player participation policy may make it harder to “rest” Markkanen, who qualifies as a “star” under the new rules.
And even with some question marks, particularly about who’ll get the most run at point guard, if he, Kessler and new addition John Collins are typically available, the Jazz should at least be competitive enough to repeat last season’s 37 wins.
In 2022-23, when Markkanen and Kessler shared the floor with rookie wing Ochai Agbaji, Utah was plus-9.6 points per 100 possessions.
And just getting back to 37 would be enough to clear this year’s over-under. If Agbaji, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kessler or one of the Jazz’ incoming rookies (a group that includes Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh), a total in the low to mid-40s could be in play.
Few teams are better constructed for modern, mostly positionless basketball than the Brooklyn Nets.
With a bunch of above-average wings or forwards, including Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale, Brooklyn can switch all over the floor on defense and attack from anywhere on the other end.
Defensively, even Nic Claxton, who’s more fleet of foot than other bigs, can fit within that philosophy. And his finishing around the rim can pull defenders away from the wings outside.
Ultimately, though, the Nets being underrated comes down to two things.
First, and probably most important, Bridges is now a star. He may not have an All-Star appearance to his name or qualify as a “star” under the aforementioned player participation policy, but he’s a star.
After averaging 26.1 points in 27 games after last season’s trade to the Nets, he was arguably Team USA’s best player at this summer’s FIBA World Cup. And while the Americans had a disappointing fourth-place finish, there are plenty of others who deserve blame before Bridges.
The other factor that could (and for today’s purposes, we’ll say should) propel the Nets to well over 38 wins is the return of Ben Simmons (or at least something close to the previous version of Ben Simmons).
Yes, it’s been a while since we saw him in All-Star form. Over the last two seasons, he’s made just 42 appearances and averaged 6.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists. But he’s reportedly healthy now, and if he’s 75 percent of his peak self, he’ll absolutely add to the switchability on defense and dynamism on offense.
The Orlando Magic are one of the younger teams in the league, but just sorting everyone by average age doesn’t quite illustrate that.
The three players who figure to be their best in 2023-24—Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and Paolo Banchero—are 22, 24 and 20, respectively.
And with those three in essentially the same roles last season, Orlando went 29-28 in its last 57 games. It feels pretty safe to they’re all are on the upward side of their developmental slope. which suggests a .500 season is well within reach.
A little veteran leadership from Gary Harris and Joe Ingles and the chance at a breakout from Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz or Anthony Black might even have the Magic competing for a play-in spot.
The Washington Wizards unloading Kristaps Porziņģis and Bradley Beal in the same summer certainly suggests they’re in for a rebuilding season, but they also added some win-now players who should help them be more competitive than a 24-win team.
Jordan Poole had a down shooting season in 2022-23, but he averaged 18.5 point and 4.0 assists with a 59.8 true shooting percentage the year before. And he’s only 24 years old. It’s not hard to imagine a bounce-back.
Tyus Jones could help unlock a more efficient version of Poole too. He’s one of the steadier point guards in basketball, with averages of 9.5 points and 4.8 assists in 22.8 minutes over the last two seasons. In the same stretch, he’s hit 37.9 percent of his three-point attempts and led all players with at least 200 assists with a 6.2 assist-to-turnover ratio. The distance between that ratio and second is about the same as the distance between second and 13th.
Beyond the backcourt, Washington has a 20-point-per-game scorer in Kyle Kuzma, a solid rim-runner and -protector in Daniel Gafford and multiple, seemingly interchangeable forwards with plenty of developmental runway in front of them.
If one or two of Corey Kispert, Deni Avdija or Bilal Coulibaly are better than expected and the aforementioned veterans stay healthy, 30 wins feels like a very attainable total.
The bookmakers are already projecting a six- to seven-win improvement for the Dallas Mavericks, who are coming off a 38-44 campaign. And in the case of most teams, that’d be pretty optimistic.
But you have to remember that the Mavericks tanked pretty aggressively down the stretch of 2022-23 (and were fined for admitting it). They also didn’t have Kyrie Irving prior to February.
Kyrie’s lack of availability in recent years aside, him and Luka Dončić being together for a full season should give the Mavs one of the most explosive offenses in basketball.
And this offseason, they added a number of players who should complement their two-man game well or help cover for them on defense.
Seth Curry’s shooting will make it difficult to double-team either playmaker, and Grant Williams and Dante Exum can take on all kinds of difficult defensive assignments.
If Dallas can keep up the 121.7 points per 100 possessions they scored with Luka and Kyrie on the floor last season, while playing even slightly better defense, a 50-win total is in play.