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Ranking the Highest Ceilings from the 2020 NBA Draft Class – Bleacher Report
We’re now three years removed from the 2020 NBA draft, which means we have three seasons of video, production and numbers with which to analyze the class.
All of that makes it significantly easier to determine (or at least declare) the upside or ceiling of the players in that group.
But still, predicting the future is always going to take tons of subjectivity. Even with numbers, film, (in some cases) playoff appearances and more to guide us, there’s still some guesswork.
We’ve combined all of the above to rank the highest-ceiling players from the 2020 draft class.
Peruse the list of players drafted in 2020, and it becomes clear pretty quickly that this class has a chance to be special. And that means whittling it down to a top five is a challenge.
As is the case with every year, though, there are also some players who seem unlikely to touch their pre-draft projections.
Though this slide is by no means exhaustive, below, you’ll find a few names from each category.
Honorable Mentions
Onyeka Okongwu: A 6’8″ big who’s already shown some multipositional defensive ability and a little touch in the floater zone, Onyeka Okongwu averaged 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in just 23.1 minutes in 2022-23.
Immanuel Quickley: An underrated perimeter defender who’s also flashed heat-check-off-the-bench offensive upside, Immanuel Quickley averaged 20.2 points, 4.0 assists and 3.0 threes over his last 25 games in 2022-23.
Cole Anthony: Cole Anthony has a chance to be a high-end reserve scorer in the mold of Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams. Last season, he averaged 3.9 assists and 1.3 threes in just 25.9 minutes, while posting a slightly above-average three-point percentage.
Obvious Misses
James Wiseman: There are still brief moments when you can see why James Wiseman was tantalizing enough for the Golden State Warriors to use the No. 2 pick on him, but his lack of awareness on both ends of the floor has made him a plus-minus disaster. Since he was drafted, his teams are minus-13.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and plus-0.2 when he’s off.
Killian Hayes: He’s third in the class in total career assists, but Killian Hayes’ inefficiency as a scorer is alarming. His 45.3 true shooting percentage is a whopping 12.2 points below the league average over the course of his career.
Age: 25
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 3rd
In just three seasons, Desmond Bane has already established himself as one of the game’s best three-point shooters. And that doesn’t just apply to his position among current players.
For his career, he has taken 5.9 threes per game and hit 42.5 percent of those attempts. Stephen Curry is the only player in league history who matches or exceeds both marks.
But unlike some of the NBA’s other high-volume floor spacers, outside shooting is far from Bane’s only strength.
The TCU product has had an above-average defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics among NBA front offices) in each of the last two seasons.
And in 2022-23, he emerged as a bona fide, playmaking combo guard.
On the year, Bane averaged 21.5 points and 4.4 assists in 31.7 minutes per game. And when he played without Ja Morant on the floor, he averaged 25.5 points and 5.7 assists per 75 possessions.
Age: 22
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 6th
Bane is bigger and has been a more efficient scorer than Tyrese Maxey over their three NBA seasons, but Maxey is two years and change younger.
If you compare the age-22 seasons of both players, it’s pretty hard to pick against Maxey in this particular either/or.
Beyond that comparison, Maxey’s ceiling has sort of spoken for itself in recent years. He’s a dynamic slasher and open-floor scorer who’s also become a reliable (to put it mildly) three-point shooter.
And what’s perhaps most impressive is his nose for big moments on a team that has had so many players shrink from them over the last couple seasons.
Over the last two postseasons, Maxey has averaged 20.7 points, 3.1 assists and 2.6 threes, while shooting 39.0 percent from deep.
Age: 22
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 2nd
If it wasn’t for the persistent injuries that have limited LaMelo Ball to 54 games per season, he’d have an argument for the No. 2 spot on this list (and maybe even higher).
The combination of size and playmaking that he brings to the table is rare, even in today’s game.
Among all 6’7″-plus players with at least 5,000 career minutes, the top five in career assist percentage is a who’s who of all-time passers.
If that kind of playmaking was all Ball brought to the table, he’d still be a more-than-intriguing 22-year-old, but he’s already ahead of schedule as a shooter and scorer too. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 21.1 points and 3.3 threes, while shooting 38.4 percent from deep.
And his length and activity on defense (even if that second part comes and goes), gives him the potential to be a difference-maker on defense too.
Age: 23
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 1st
In part because he shared the floor with eventual All-NBA guard De’Aaron Fox for much of his first two seasons, Tyrese Haliburton didn’t pop quite like LaMelo Ball did right away for the Charlotte Hornets.
But in his first full season with the Indiana Pacers, we got an extended look at what a team undisputedly led by Haliburton looks like. And prior to an injury in January, the Pacers looked pretty darn good.
Through January 11, Indiana was above .500 and already clear of its preseason over-under.
And while things fell apart for the team during (and after) the Iowa State product’s first extended absence, his individual numbers remained stellar.
For the season, he put up 20.7 points, 10.4 assists and 2.9 threes, while shooting 40.0 percent from deep. Needless to say, no one in NBA history has matched or exceeded all four marks for an entire season. And if you strike the three-point percentage qualifier, James Harden’s 2016-17 campaign is the only one added to the list.
When you consider that kind of production in combination with Haliburton’s age and size (6’5″ with a 6’8″ wingspan), it’s not hard to imagine him assuming the mantle of the league’s best point guard at some point.
Age: 22
Class Rank in Career Wins Over Replacement Player: 4th
Anthony Edwards doesn’t really have the numbers in his corner for this debate. Those are firmly in support of Haliburton.
So, why has he been elevated to the top spot on this list?
For one thing, he’s more in the prototypical “wing who can impose his will on the game” mold that has been the centerpiece of so many title teams over the last 40 years.
And that naturally leads to the second point. His takeover ability was on vivid display in each of the last two postseasons, particularly against the eventual champion Denver Nuggets in 2023.
Of course, the Minnesota Timberwolves lost the series, but there wasn’t another individual player (with the possible exception of Devin Booker) who flummoxed Denver’s defense in quite the same way.
Edwards put up 31.6 points, 5.2 assists, 3.0 threes, 2.0 blocks and 1.8 steals against the Nuggets and looked every bit the kind of superstar who could eventually lead a title contender.
Finally, at 6’4″ with a 6’9″ wingspan and 225 pounds, he looks like an absolute tank next to most other NBA players. His football background helps him play with a physicality few can match. And that’s helped him average 74.3 games per year during his career.
Add to all of that the fact that he’s 22 years old, and it shouldn’t be too hard to understand his position here.