Sports
NBA Playoff Picture 2023: Updated Play-In Standings, Predictions After All-Star Break – Bleacher Report
The NBA returns from the All-Star break Thursday with nine games.
All 30 teams have played at least 57 games. While a handful of teams are safe assumptions to make the playoffs, the most intriguing races will involve the bottom of the postseason bracket and the play-in tournament.
The Western Conference is a jumbled mess behind the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies in the top two spots. The gap between the Sacramento Kings at No. 3 and Los Angeles Lakers at No. 13 is only six games.
As teams prepare for the stretch run, here are the standings for both conferences and predictions for what will happen over the next six weeks.
Eastern Conference Standings
Western Conference Standings
Standings via NBA.com. Top six teams in each conference make playoffs; teams 7-10 make play-in tournament.
Lakers Won’t Make Play-In Tournament
Despite the overreaction in some corners to the Lakers’ 120-102 win over the New Orleans Pelicans with their new-look lineup Feb. 15, it’s hard to take them seriously until we see exactly what they will be.
The main argument in favor of the Lakers’ making the play-in tournament is having two superstar players and the sixth-easiest remaining strength of schedule.
But the Lakers before the All-Star break had two superstar players, yet they went 27-32 in 59 games.
Anthony Davis is healthy after missing 24 games before the break, but his list of injuries over the past three seasons suggests something bad could happen at any moment. LeBron James sat out three games with a sore left foot after breaking the NBA’s all-time scoring record Feb. 7.
The foot issue was enough of a problem that the Lakers sent James to get a scan that came back clear. He played in the win over the Pelicans, finishing with 21 points, six rebounds and six assists in 29 minutes.
Adding D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt before the trade deadline also increases the Lakers’ margin of error.
Their first seven games out of the All-Star break will go a long way toward determining where this team ends up. They play the Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors twice as well as the Dallas Mavericks, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Each of those games is against a Western Conference team either in the playoffs or play-in tournament based on the standings.
The Thunder could be the most vulnerable team from that group because recent history suggests they are more than happy to try some roster shenanigans to tank and improve their position in the draft lottery.
These Aren’t the Same Old Warriors
It could be argued the Warriors are actually the most vulnerable team among the Western Conference clubs in the play-in tournament.
At least the Thunder have their best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, healthy and available. The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry for at least one more week as he continues to recover from a knee injury that has kept him out for the past five games.
Even if Curry returns and plays like he did before the injury, it’s time to accept the 2022-23 Warriors aren’t at the same level they were when they won the championship last season.
Things have been so bad on defense that Draymond Green called out the team following a 134-124 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Feb. 14.
“It’s the will to defend—stop and guard your man, and sink, and drop the box and rotate,” Green told reporters. “Defense is just one or two steps extra … that’s all will, and we don’t have that as a team.”
Golden State is trying to bring back the formula that worked last season by trading for Gary Payton II even though the team’s medical staff flagged his physical for a core muscle injury that required surgery last offseason.
Payton told reporters Wednesday his goal is to be back healthy before the postseason.
The Warriors are a .500 team (29-29) because they can’t win on the road. Their 7-22 record away from Chase Center is the fourth-worst road mark in the NBA, ahead of only the Detroit Pistons (7-23), San Antonio Spurs (5-24) and Houston Rockets (5-25).
A healthy Curry is good enough to carry Golden State to two wins in the play-in tournament if that’s where the team finishes, but what answers will head coach Steve Kerr have for a potential first-round matchup against Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets?
Right now, the Warriors are looking at a first-round elimination at best.
The New-Look Nets Will Avoid the Play-In Tournament
While most of the focus of the Kevin Durant trade has, understandably, been on the Phoenix Suns, the Brooklyn Nets have put together a fun roster of solid players that can keep them in the top six of the Eastern Conference standings.
Mikal Bridges will get a chance to show what he can do as the No. 1 option for the first time in his career. The 26-year-old had a fantastic performance in the final game before the All-Star break with 45 points, eight rebounds, five assists, two steals and two blocks in a 116-105 win over the Miami Heat.
The Nets have Bridges, Royce O’Neale and Dorian Finney-Smith as wing defenders. Nic Claxton is developing into one of the best defensive players in the NBA. He leads the league in blocks per game (2.6) and averages 12.8 points per contest.
Relying on Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Johnson and Cam Thomas to provide offense could lead to off nights in scoring because that trio hasn’t displayed much consistency in their careers.
But the defense provided by Bridges, O’Neale, Smith and Claxton is good enough to carry the Nets to some wins.
None of the four teams in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament spots has looked like it will make a run.
The Nets aren’t a title contender without Durant and Kyrie Irving, but they are a solid group that can cause problems for top-tier teams as they look to secure a playoff berth for head coach Jacque Vaughn.