2024 NBA Mock Draft: Way-Too-Soon Lottery Predictions – Bleacher Report

Between NBA free agency, FIBA tournaments and college basketball exhibitions, we’re getting a better sense for projecting lottery teams and the prospects they’ll be looking at.
The 2024 NBA draft is still considered one of the most open ones in recent memory, with no clear-cut No. 1 prospect or even an obvious first tier.
Using a combination of win-total odds and personal opinion to break ties, we predicted the teams that will miss the playoffs and addressed where they stand as a rebuilding or competitive franchise.
Among projected lottery picks, there is the usual handful of one-and-dones from power schools, but we could also see three G League representatives and three NCAA returners crack the top 14.

State of the Washington Wizards
New president of Monumental Basketball Michael Winger and general manager Will Dawkins came in and hit restart for the Washington Wizards. After trading away Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis this offseason, the Wizards’ immediate focus should shift to young player development and building through the draft.
With a starting lineup that now features newly acquired Jordan Poole and returners Kyle Kuzma and Corey Kispert, Winger and Dawkins seem content with the Wizards going backward first to move forward.
While Tyus Jones may seem like a better fit for playoff teams looking for depth, he was a savvy Washington pickup. Poole, Kispert, Deni Avdija and No. 8 pick Bilal Coulibaly are likely to benefit from the veteran point guard’s decision-making and ability to run offense.
Whenever the Wizards are eliminated from playoff contention, they figure to open up more playing time for the (throw-in) prospects they bought low on like Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Ryan Rollins.
This roster is ultimately designed to finish with a bottom-four record and a 14.0 percent chance to win the lottery.
No. 1 overall: Ron Holland
Holland is as good of a bet for the No. 1 overall pick as anyone this early in the process. Everyone should covet his sure-thing mix of 6’8″ size, athleticism, offensive versatility, defensive impact and signature motor.
Holland has a chance to separate himself from the pack if he continues to build on his flashes of creation, passing and shot-making. He’s at his best attacking, turning the corner and using footwork off the dribble to get to the rim.
In the paint, Holland can finish with an effective combination of explosive leaping, touch shots and acrobatics. And he’s constantly earning himself easy baskets off the ball just by playing hard, staying active and tapping into his speed and athleticism.
His ball-handling and shooting are improving, and enough half-court scoring and three-point in the G League should help NBA teams see both a high floor and path to upside.

State of the Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers will try to hold out for a better offer in Damian Lillard trade talks, but they’ll eventually have to accept something. It’s difficult to picture Lillard playing in Portland again, particularly after the Blazers just spent the No. 3 overall pick on point guard Scoot Henderson.
Projecting the 2023-24 Blazers means envisioning a rotation led by a rookie ball-handler and Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant as top-two options. Portland’s immediate focus will be on Henderson’s development, whatever it gets in return for Lillard and its 2024 draft pick, which has a good chance of being in the top five.
While the Blazers aren’t yet in position to worry about fit, they’ll still be hoping to balance out the roster with young frontcourt talent to develop.
No. 2 overall: Matas Buzelis
Buzelis may have trouble with the G League’s physicality, but there will be a clear draw to his combination of 6’10” size and guard skills.
Buzelis’ height and shooting create a high floor for scouts to picture, while his ball-handling and shot-making versatility hint at a perimeter mismatch and All-Star upside.
Buzelis should be able to play all over the floor thanks to his ability to bring the ball up, self-create, pass and stretch the floor.
The G League will test his toughness and thinner frame, but the competition, Ignite’s professional approach and a high-usage role should benefit him before the draft.

State of the Detroit Pistons
After selecting Ausar Thompson with the No. 5 overall pick in June, the Pistons have now spent lottery picks in each of the past four years on backcourt prospects. They’ve built a new core with Thompson, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, a group that fits together without any positional overlap.
Cunningham missing the majority of his sophomore season set the Pistons’ rebuild back. With Detroit expected to start four players who are 21 or younger, its flashes of production likely won’t translate to winning in 2023-24.
Detroit’s priorities for the upcoming season: Cunningham improving his efficiency, Ivey improving his decision-making, Duren raising his skill level and defensive IQ and Thompson developing his shooting range.
While this roster is capable of beating playoff teams, it isn’t ready to consistently pick up wins and push for the postseason. Detroit could be in position to add another top-five pick, which it could shop for more frontcourt offense or use to draft another wing like Justin Edwards.
No. 3 overall: Justin Edwards
The Pistons will continue to draft the best player available, and Edwards may be a strong candidate with his combination of 6’8″ size, athleticism, improving shot-making, athletic plays around the basket and defensive flashes.
He’s the type who can score 15 points without advanced creation skill. Edwards will likely sell teams on a three-and-D archetype that can also evolve with enough flashes of dribble-drives and pull-ups.
Scouts want to see more creation and assertiveness, but Edwards is being viewed as a safe bet with his NBA tools, off-ball offense and motor.

State of the Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets enter 2023-24 under new ownership and with June’s No. 2 overall pick in Brandon Miller.
Miller represents the franchise’s second potential star cornerstone next to LaMelo Ball, and there will be some pressure on both this year. Ball has missed 77 games through three seasons, and Charlotte chose Miller over Scoot Henderson, the draft’s presumed second-best prospect for most of the year.
After missing all of last season, Miles Bridges will return upon serving out the remaining 10 games of his 30-game suspension. Mark Williams also seems poised for a sophomore jump to give Charlotte a reliable defensive anchor to build with.
It’s unrealistic to expect instant impact from Miller, and Gordon Hayward is entering his 14th season at age 33. Ball, Bridges and Terry Rozier figure to provide regular firepower, but it’s still unlikely to be enough to elevate Charlotte’s 30th-ranked offense into one that can regularly take down playoff teams.
Charlotte’s goals this year will focus on Ball’s trajectory and durability, Bridges’ rehabilitation and the development of Miller, Williams, Nick Richards, Bryce McGowens, James Bouknight and Kai Jones.
No. 4 overall: Tyrese Proctor
While the Hornets may prefer to upgrade their power forward or center depth, Proctor has the potential to create a gap between himself and the draft’s bigs. He’s bound to win scouts over with both a combination of NBA physical tools, skill versatility, impact and being a cerebral player.
Assuming Proctor builds on his strong close to last season, he should emerge as a popular lottery prospect, coveted by everyone for his self-creation, shot-making and passing IQ.
Teams could think about Proctor as a 6’5″ lead guard, but those who already have ball-handlers like Ball could also picture the 19-year-old as an interchangeable combo guard. A crafty touch-scorer and clever, willing facilitator, Proctor has the chance to leave scouts with little to question, assuming he’s more consistent from three and comfortable finishing.

State of the San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama’s arrival raises the San Antonio Spurs’ long-term ceiling. However, he’s unlikely to lift the franchise into the playoff picture as a rookie.
They’ll be a tough out mostly because of Wembanyama’s rim protection and Jeremy Sochan’s defensive versatility at power forward in his second NBA season. This pair should fuel the team’s identity and create massive defensive upside.
Wembanyama figures to be productive offensively as a rookie, using his 8’0″ wingspan for finishing, shot-making and ball-handling in space. But he’s going to have ups and downs with shooting and physicality that will lead to inconsistency in a full-time role.
San Antonio will count on Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell for more reliable offense. The roster just doesn’t have enough established weapons to create consistent firepower and regularly take down playoff teams in the West.
The Spurs front office have their eyes on the future, which will include another high draft pick in 2024, plus the Toronto Raptors’ first-rounder if it lands outside the top six.
No. 5 overall: D.J. Wagner
Kentucky’s projected engine, Wagner could jump into the top-five discussion with his signature knack for slicing through defenses and three-level scoring.
Avoiding inefficient percentages and questions about passing will keep Wagner from sliding down boards. But he’s at his best using his handles and change of direction to penetrate and create layup angles at the rim, where he’s a strong finisher despite possessing limited physical tools and athleticism.
His shooting is improving. There just may be questions about his playmaking IQ for a point guard, and whether he’s big enough to consistently execute against NBA 2-guards. But he may wind up being productive enough to keep teams from nitpicking in a draft that might lack obvious best-player-available answers.

State of the Houston Rockets
Between their free-agent signings and first-round draft picks, the Rockets had one of the league’s most interesting offseasons.
Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks make the team instantly tougher. And while Amen Thompson was the Rockets’ big get in the draft, the talk of the July for Houston was the play of Cam Whitmore, the summer league MVP who took an unexpected slide to No. 20 overall.
The additions of VanVleet and Brooks will limit Thompson’s and Whitmore’s opportunities in 2023-24. Whether Houston makes a big jump this season will come down to the development of Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr., particularly if both figure out how to score more efficiently.
Despite paying VanVleet and Brooks a combined $63.4 million in 2023-24, the Rockets will still be thinking long term with a current core that also includes Alperen Şengün, one of only five players to register at least a 20.0 assist percentage and 15.0 rebounding percentage last year.
Adding VanVleet and Brooks should make the Rockets more competitive. Signing VanVleet for at least two seasons should take pressure of the young prospects and allow a rookie like Thompson to take it slow before eventually taking over.
The Rockets should be back in the lottery, only with a better record than 22-60.
No. 6 overall: Elmarko Jackson
The Rockets will enter the draft with cornerstone prospects at guard (Thompson and Green), wing (Whitmore, Kevin Porter Jr.), forward (Smith) and center (Şengün). Houston could draft for need and take Connecticut center Donovan Clingan, who currently projects as the No. 1 defensive prospect.
It also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rockets tried to shop this pick for more proven veterans, considering all of the young players they’re already trying to develop.
Regardless, Elmarko Jackson has a chance to soar past some other high-profile college prospects with his handle, shot creation, pull-up shooting and improving playmaking. At 6’3″, he combines positional size, burst and a well-rounded skill set for on- and off-ball offense.
There will be older players in Kansas’ rotation who make it tough for Jackson to consistently put up numbers. But in a weaker draft, exciting flashes and a coveted archetype could be enough to draw top-10 interest.

State of the Orlando Magic
This will be a big season for the Magic to determine who to continue building around and who may need to be moved. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are obvious long-term starters. The question is how the backcourt will shake out with Anthony Black and Jett Howard joining Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris.
Black seems to have the most upside at point guard with his 6’7″ size for a ball-handler, passing and defensive instincts. His fit with an improving Fultz will be something to monitor given both of their shooting limitations.
Finding minutes for all of their recent draft picks will be a challenge for the Magic. But that’s also a good problem to have for a team that suddenly has a surplus of quality young players.
While Orlando should finish closer to .500 than last year, head coach Jamahl Mosley and management still may need another season to flesh out the roster, find the right combinations and optimize the team’s talent.
No. 7 overall: Alex Sarr
After a strong U19 World Cup, where Sarr’s athleticism and defensive playmaking consistently popped, he’s gotten off to a strong start in NBL preseason.
He isn’t going to score in volume with the Wildcats, but NBA teams are bound to be drawn to the 18-year-old’s bounce around the rim, shot-blocking, quick hips in pick-and-roll coverage and flashes of three-point range.
Given how well he moves for a player his height (7’1″), the finishing, putbacks and defense all seem translatable to an NBA floor. Sarr’s occasional glimpses of shooting and face-up drives are what will land him in the 2024 lottery discussion.
The Magic suddenly have a deep depth chart after drafting Black and Howard. Sarr would give Orlando additional depth at center and more defensive upside than Wendell Carter Jr., something the Magic may want next to Banchero.

State of the Chicago Bulls
This may be a make-or-break season for a Bulls team that’s been caught in no-man’s land while paying Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević a combined $87.2 million in 2023-24.
Lonzo Ball’s unavailability and uncertain future have clearly set the franchise back. Chicago now has to decide how to take this current group back to the playoffs or if it’s time to reset, especially with DeRozan entering the final year of his deal.
Patrick Williams might be the X-factor for this group, as a fourth-year jump could push the team into the playoffs. The 22-year-old may still have some borderline-star potential to chase.
If Chicago gets similar results and production from its veteran big three, it will be banking on a Williams breakout to avoid being pressured to rebuild. However, under-the-radar signings of Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig should add a needed element of toughness to the rotation.
No. 8 overall: Isaiah Collier
Regardless of what doctors say about Ball’s recovery for 2024-25, the Bulls figure to be motivated to find an upgrade at point guard.
Collier would offer an uncommon mix of physical driving and passing to Chicago’s backcourt. He still has something to prove as a shooter, but he did show improvement last season. In the right setting—possibility Chicago’s—he could play to his strengths early as a driving force and playmaker.
Capable shot-making should be the key to Collier looking like a top-10 pick in this draft, given the likelihood that his strong frame and assist numbers will have scouts buying into his attacking and facilitating translating.

State of the Utah Jazz
After choosing to trade away Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell and start from scratch last summer, the Utah Jazz took their trade returns and put together a promising 37-win season in the first year of their rebuild.
This offseason, they added John Collins and three first-rounders from June’s draft.
The Jazz will aim to reach the 2023-24 playoffs, but it’s still all about the young players, collection of picks and future. It remains difficult to picture Lauri Markkanen, Collins and Walker Kessler leading the Jazz past some of the established teams in the West.
On the other hand, Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Kris Dunn and Kelly Olynyk will give the team some needed leadership and toughness, qualities that should help Utah approach 40 wins.
But despite higher expectations heading into this season compared to last, the focus is still on Kessler rising into a tier with the NBA’s top rim protectors, Ochai Agbaji adding more creation and shooting consistency, Taylor Hendricks establishing his three-and-D presence and Keyonte George gaining confidence in his shot selection and scoring attack.
No. 9 overall: Stephon Castle
Castle should instantly pop at Connecticut with his three-level scoring and passing for a 6’6″, 215-pound freshman guard.
He compensates for limited explosion and speed with positional height, the ability to play through contact and enough shot-making skill to hit contested pull-ups and step-backs. With vision and some point-wing in his game as well, NBA teams should see him as an interchangeable combo guard, which should maximize his number of suitors.
Avoiding concerns about decision-making and the ability to separate will be key for Castle, who can seemingly operate in slow motion or with nonchalance.

State of the Indiana Pacers
While the Pacers didn’t draft or sign any obvious stars, they got better this offseason by brining in No. 8 pick Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, Bruce Brown and No. 26 pick Ben Sheppard.
Offense will continue to run through Tyrese Halburton, whose confidence should be high following this summer’s World Cup. A sophomore jump from Bennedict Mathurin could put him near 20 points per game and locked into the Pacers’ staring wing spot with his positional power, explosiveness and shot-making. And Myles Turner parlayed his best offensive season as a pro into a two-year, $58 million contract renegotiation and extension in January.
The newcomers should plug holes nicely. Walker—who appears relatively NBA-ready for a regular role at 6’8″ and 235 pounds—will bring versatility and defense that should complement Toppin’s motor and elite play-finishing. And Brown just proved with the Denver Nuggets that he can find different ways to make plays, whether it’s on the ball, off it or defensively.
The Pacers seem like a strong breakout candidate in the Eastern Conference. But they still may be a year away from the playoffs if Mathurin, Walker and Toppin battle too many consistency issues at both ends of the floor.
No. 10 overall: Donovan Clingan
Clingan isn’t the modernized big man with the type of versatility that typically screams upside in today’s NBA. But he may be too productive and impactful for teams to nitpick his limitations.
Clingan registered a tremendous 14.3 block percentage as a freshman while demonstrating the mobility and pick-and-roll coverage (at 7’2″, 18-19 years old) for NBA teams to picture the defense and rim protection translating.
Despite lacking shooting range or ball-handling skill, he creates his own high-percentage scoring chances by rim running and using his mix of power and soft hands around the basket.

State of the Toronto Raptors
After losing Fred VanVleet in free agency, the Raptors will also send their first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs in 2024 if it falls outside of the top six.
The Raptors now seem stuck. They should be competitive enough to reach the play-in tournament, but they have no real upside to rise from there.
The front office may become motivated to make some midseason trades that would involve moving backward to go forward down the road. Dealing Pascal Siakam in the final year of his contract could mean tanking the season to keep their 2024 pick while also netting multiple first-rounders and/or young talent.
Based on their current roster with Siakam, O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Dennis Schröder and Jakob Poeltl, the Raptors seem too tough to finish with a bottom-six record. But unless Barnes makes a big jump, this group will have a tough time outperforming last year’s results.
No. 11 overall: Caleb Foster
Foster will have to stand out in a rotation featuring Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach and fellow freshman Jared McCain. But he should have the NBA size and frame, creativity and shot-making to catch scouts’ attention.
Scoring comes the easiest to Foster with his ability to shake off the bounce into drives and dribble jumpers. There is an appealing mix of physicality and finesse to his offense.
Although he profiles as more of a 2 or combo guard than a point guard, his gravity and vision still translate to useful secondary playmaking.

State of the Minnesota Timberwolves
Between their obvious talent, improving young players, costly investments and questionable fits, there are reasons to be both excited and nervous about the Timberwolves.
Anthony Edwards appears on the verge of rising further up the NBA scoring leaderboard, while Jaden McDaniels is trending toward an All-Defensive team. But Minnesota will be leaning on in-house improvement after a quiet offseason, and Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert both went backward during their first year paired together.
The Wolves have one the league’s most loaded starting lineups and questions about its makeup. After finishing 23rd in offensive efficiency last season, Minnesota’s focus heading into this year should be on finding ways to get the most out of Edwards and Towns with a paint anchor like Gobert on the floor.
The Timberwolves should exhaust all options with this group given the amount of future assets they gave up for Gobert and the likelihood they have no interest in selling low on Towns, whose value around the league is presumably the lowest it has been.
No. 12 overall: Izan Almansa
There will be more attention on Almansa to start the G League season after his MVP performance and gold-medal win at the U19 World Cup.
Though he lacks the versatility that typically draws NBA love, he has a clear knack for earning himself easy buckets with a combination of scoring instincts, body control, timing, toughness and soft hands.
He has delivered some encouraging flashes of face-up drives and accurate free-throw shooting, potential indicators of more modern offense to unlock. But initially, teams will likely see a high-floor energy big whom they can plug-and-play for off-ball scoring, hustle points, rebounding and raising a team’s intensity.

State of the New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans conversation has to start with Zion Williamson, who’s expected back after missing 53 games last year and the entire 2021-22 season. There are lingering questions about his conditioning and ability to avoid injuries, but a healthy Williamson raises the Pelicans’ ceiling, assuming he returns to the same form that was able to average 26.0 points and 4.6 assists per game before he suffered a hamstring injury in January.
Outside of Williamson, it hasn’t been the smoothest offseason for some key New Orleans players. Brandon Ingram lost his starting job on Team USA in the World Cup while trying to figure out how to contribute in a supporting role. Meanwhile, Trey Murphy III is now dealing with a meniscus injury.
The Pelicans could wind up using lottery pick Jordan Hawkins for extra shooting. Dyson Daniels also could be headed for a breakout after he filled up box scores and played more confidently in summer league.
The microscope will still be on Williamson’s durability and Ingram’s response to the 284-pound forward’s enormous presence in the lineup.
No. 13 overall: Kel’el Ware
Ware will have a chance to start over at Indiana, where he’ll receive far more minutes, touches and freedom compared to Oregon.
Scouts all acknowledge his NBA fit with 7’0″ size, mobility, leaping ability and touch. Teams will see an easy-bucket lob target and rim protector. But he’ll regain his lottery status with more consistent flashes of post play and comfortable shooting.
Ware will just have to avoid questions about his motor and tendency to fade, turnoff qualities on the scouting report that teams will be hoping to erase.

State of the Oklahoma Thunder
The Thunder reached last year’s play-in tournament behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s All-NBA leap, Josh Giddey’s improved scoring efficiency and Jalen Williams’ surprising two-way effectiveness as a rookie. They’ll now enter 2023-24 with a healthy Chet Holmgren, who bounced back from missing all of last season to average 16.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 3.5 blocks in four summer-league games.
The lineup has a mix of different archetypes, each with upside, that fit together.
To take another step forward, OKC may need extra three-point shooting from Williams and Holmgren, plus a sophomore breakout from 2022 lottery pick Ousmane Dieng, another summer-league standout for the Thunder.
Incredibly young and loaded with future draft picks, it’s still all about the long-term picture for Oklahoma City. It’s more realistic to picture a postseason rise with a sophomore Holmgren when Williams may be experiencing a third-year All-Star breakout.
No. 14: Aday Mara
UCLA pulled Mara from Spain and the ACB. He’d been in the draft scouting discussion for a few years before elevating his status further this summer at the U18 European Championships, where he averaged 14.0 points, 9.1 boards, 2.3 assists and 2.7 blocks per game.
He’s highly skilled at 7’3″, with vertical pop for finishing and excellent touch and passing instincts.
Mara has shown promising shooting range for an 18-year-old big his size, and more flashes at UCLA could push him closer toward the top 10. Looking capable defending away from the basket will be a key to dodging questions about his NBA fit.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.

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