Sports
Predicting NBA's Top 30 Wings for 2023-24 Season – Bleacher Report
We’re getting closer to unveiling B/R’s Top 100 NBA Player Predictions. But before we get to the main showing on Thursday, we’re counting down the league’s best players by position, according to our final top 100 order.
On Monday, we dropped Top 30 Guards in the B/R app. Today, we’re breaking down the league’s top wings, followed by bigs as tomorrow’s final teaser.
How did we determine our rankings? Jump below to see.
*Check out every team’s complete list of Top 30 Wings at the end, and hit the comments to share what we got right and which players will prove us wrong in 2023-24.
B/R asked its best basketball minds to answer a series of random Player A vs. Player B debates. The question for each debate:
“Which player will rank higher by the end of the 2023-24 season?”
In total, we compiled 8,632 votes across nearly 20 participants, narrowing our final player pool down to a top 110.
From there, a panel of experts each ranked every player from 1 to 110. They used their own criteria, considering everything from individual production, impact on winning (during both the regular season and the playoffs) and also health/availability.
All rankings were compiled and averaged. And then, voila!
B/R NBA 100 was set, with a list of 10 difficult cuts as honorable mentions.
Only thing left to do was separate players by today’s common positions: guards, wings, bigs.
How did we determine positions, you ask? Check it out below.
To determine whether a player classified as a guard, wing or big, we consulted Basketball Reference and the “Position Estimate” at each of the five traditional positions.
One thing we did not do? We did not ignore the eye test.
If a player’s Position Estimate showed his primary position as PF, but he’s generally perceived as a “wing” on the court, we leaned into subjectivity.
The slides that follow spotlight our top 30 wing predictions for the 2023-24 season. But there were more than 30 wings in our final top 100.
Here’s a look at which players nearly missed the top 30 but did make (or fell just outside) our overall top 100.
Honorable Mentions: Shaedon Sharpe, Brandon Miller, Dillon Brooks, Harrison Barnes
2022-23 Stats — 14.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.5 APG, 50.1 FG%, 38.9 3PT% (74 games played)
Primary Position — SF
If Tobias Harris hadn’t signed a five-year, $180 million contract in 2019, perception of him would likely be far different. He averaged a perfectly adequate 18.7 points on 48.7 percent shooting, 6.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.5 three-pointers per game over the first three years of that deal, although that production was by no means commensurate with his salary.
Harris’ output plummeted last season as Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey dominated touches on the Philadelphia 76ers, but the ongoing Harden standoff could allow him to take on a bigger role this coming year. Perhaps we’ll finally get to see the “assassin scorer” version of Harris emerge?
—Bryan Toporek
2022-23 Stats — 9.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, 59.2 FG%, 37.2 3PT% (76 Games)
Primary Position — SF
Everything Hart does impacts winning.
From his hustle, defense, rebounding, passing and scoring, Hart’s fingerprints are left all over the floor anytime he checks into a game. The Knicks were a whopping 15.9 points per 100 possessions better with Hart on the floor following his trade to New York (99th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass), as he filled any role they needed him to play.
Giving him a full training camp with the team and another former Villanova teammate in Donte DiVincenzo will only make Hart’s impact even greater.
—Greg Swartz
2022-23 Stats — 12.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 51.7 FG%, 39.8 3PT% (79 games played)
Primary Position — SF
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ 2022-23 campaign didn’t go quite as planned after their blockbuster trade for Rudy Gobert last offseason, but Jaden McDaniels was one of the few bright spots. He averaged a career-high 12.1 points per game on 51.7 percent shooting, and he ranked in the 91st percentile leaguewide in Dunks and Threes’ defensive estimated plus/minus despite taking on some of the NBA’s toughest defensive assignments.
McDaniels missed the playoffs last year after suffering a broken hand in Minnesota’s regular-season finale, which prevented his coming-out party on a national stage. Regardless, the Wolves figure to sign him to an extension by the Oct. 23 deadline, as he projects to be a cornerstone alongside Anthony Edwards moving forward.
—Toporek
2022-23 Stats — 21.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 48.8 FG%, 41.1 3PT% (59 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Only 13 players last season averaged at least 20 points with an effective field-goal percentage of at least .570. Twelve of those players placed in top 33 of our final Top 100 rankings. Coming in 60-plus spots below them is the 13th, Bojan Bogdanović.
The biggest reason for that gap is his struggles on defense. Still, the 34-year-old will have been a bit underrated if he repeats his 2022-23 performance.
—Joey Akeley
2022-23 Stats — 12.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 APG, 45.3 FG%, 41.1 3PT% (80 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Keegan Murray seems one of the league’s safest bets for growth in his sophomore campaign. His game has only a tiny number of cracks for someone of his age and experience level, and perhaps his biggest challenge—shot-creation—is masked over by the playmakers around him in Sacramento, namely De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.
Saying that, the Kings likely know a leap year from Murray might be their best hope for building off their breakout 2022-23 season, so if he shows he’s ready to spread his wings, they’ll give him as much space as he needs. He won’t reprise his superstar role from summer league, but a stat line in the range of 16 points and 2.5 assists is absolutely on the table.
—Zach Buckley
2022-23 Stats —19.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 43.4 FG%, 31.0 3PT% (73 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Lack of scoring efficiency has been a massive problem for RJ Barrett throughout his career, but it still feels like there’s some untapped point forward potential here.
With his size (6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan), he can see the floor fairly well. And when he really utilizes that advantage, the New York Knicks generally win. For his career, they’re 19-13 when he totals at least 20 points and five assists.
—Andy Bailey
2022-23 Stats — 11.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.4 APG, 48.3 FG%, 35.8 3PT% (80 games played)
Primary Position — SF
After playing combo guard during his first two seasons with the Detroit Pistons and somehow operating as something of a roll man on offense for the Brooklyn Nets, Bruce Brown put it all together in what may have been his best season for the Denver Nuggets in 2022-23.
Despite standing just 6’4″, Brown can reasonably play (and defend) three or four positions, create for others and knock down open three-point attempts. He’s basketball’s version of a utility man.
—Bailey
2022-23 Stats — 22.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, 45.2 FG%, 32.9 3PT% (63 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Catch-all metrics like Basketball Reference’s box plus/minus and Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus both pegged Keldon Johnson’s 2022-23 campaign as a step back, but he’s still a 20-point-per-game scorer who doesn’t turn 24 till October. He shot 38.5 percent from three over his first three seasons. And it feels like there may be some untapped playmaking potential.
Ideally, incoming rookie Victor Wembanyama will divert some defensive attention away from him this season, which would make both scoring and creating a bit easier for him.
—Bailey
2022-23 Stats — 21.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.7 APG, 44.8 FG%, 33.3 3PT% (64 games played)
Primary Position — PF
Kyle Kuzma’s rank may be low for the 21.2 points-per-game scorer, but he’s likely penalized by the Washington Wizards’ mediocrity. He and Jordan Poole will put up a ton of points this season on what might be an even worse Wizards squad.
But Kuzma showed he’s more than just a low-calorie scorer in the 2020 championship run with the Los Angeles Lakers. He has good size, mobility and skill to score against most opponents and, when motivated, is a versatile switching defender. For now, he may be destined to be one of the best players on a generally bad basketball team.
—Eric Pincus
2022-23 Stats — 17.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 48.7 FG%, 41.4 3PT% (62 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Coming off a championship run with the Denver Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. has officially proved himself one of the best shooters in basketball. Over the last three seasons, he’s put up 17.7 points and 2.8 threes while shooting 41.6 percent from deep. His effective field-goal percentage in that stretch is an astronomical 61.1.
What’s probably more interesting at this point was the consistent on- and off-ball defense MPJ displayed throughout the 2023 playoffs. If that’s now a fixture of his game, Porter can outperform this ranking.
—Bailey
2022-23 Stats — 15.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, 47.0 FG%, 40.4 3PT% (42 games played)
Primary Position — PF
Cameron Johnson has been above average in Dunks and Threes’ defensive estimated plus-minus in each of the last three seasons, peaking at the 96th percentile in 2022-23. He’s not the quickest defender in the league, but his size (6’8″ with a 6’10” wingspan) and the ability to get to the right spots before he has to make him a plus on that end.
And when you add that to his career average of 2.2 threes (in just 25.0 minutes) and 39.3 three-point percentage, it’s easy to see Johnson as one of the better three-and-D forwards in basketball.
—Bailey
2022-23 Stats — 16.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 6.2 APG, 48.2 FG%, 32.5 3PT% (76 games played)
Primary Positions — PF
A 6’8″ player listed as a guard by the Thunder (but listed as a forward here) who improved his three-point shot by a hefty 6.2 percentage points last season, Josh Giddey still has yet to celebrate his 21st birthday heading into Year 3.
One of only five NBA players to average at least 16 points, seven rebounds and six assists last season, Giddey is a nightly triple-double threat who’s only just scratching the surface of what he can become.
—Swartz
2022-23 Stats — 20.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.4 APG, 47.5 FG%, 40.1 3PT% (63 games played)
Primary Position — PF
Lost in the Damian Lillard drama, the Portland Trail Blazers have one of the NBA’s better two-way wings in Jerami Grant. He is a disruptive defender, strong on switches and has great length and mobility. The problem in Portland is one very good—among many poor—defender(s) can only do so much.
Additionally, Grant has prioritized scoring in recent years, dating back to his arrival in Detroit with the Pistons (2020). He averaged 20.5 points a game last season, including a stellar 40.1 percent from three-point range on high attempts (5.7).
The path forward in Portland is murky, and Grant’s brand-new five-year $160 million contract may or may not be appealing on the trade market. He’s clearly talented but is just on the cusp of 30 years old.
—Pincus
2022-23 Stats — 15.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.8 APG, 45.6 FG%, 28.1 3PT% (77 Games Played)
Primary Position — SF
Scottie Barnes’ stock skyrocketed in his first NBA season, and then it regressed in his second.
What could be on deck for his third go-round?
To borrow a phrase from legendary hoops orator Kevin Garnett, anything is possible.
If Barnes can harness his outside shot—admittedly a massive if—he’d have everything you want in a modern forward, as he’s already a 6’9″ shot creator with true five-position versatility on defense.
It could be tough sledding if he’s operating in tight spaces again, but banking on someone with his size, skills and smarts still seems like a wise wager.
—Buckley
2022-23 Stats — 18.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 48.5 FG%, 36.1 3PT% (80 games played)
Primary Position — SF
He was sort of overshadowed by Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero, but Franz Wagner was almost certainly the Orlando Magic’s best player in 2022-23.
And his versatility at 6’9″ makes him one of the game’s more interesting prospects.
Last season, Wagner averaged 18.6 points, 3.5 assists, 1.6 threes and 1.0 steals. There are only six other players in NBA history his height or taller who matched or exceeded all four marks in a 1,000-plus-minute season.
—Bailey
2022-23 Stats — 15.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 43.6 FG%, 31.5 3PT% (33 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Now 32 years old and coming off an injury-riddled season, Khris Middleton has some pressing question marks that could have league-wide ramifications. If he’s incapable of being the second-best player on a contender anymore, Milwaukee might have a hard time getting Giannis Antetokounmpo to buy into its long-term championship outlook.
But don’t write off Middleton just yet.
Once the playoffs rolled around this past season, he was back to being his productive-in-all-facets self, averaging 23.8 points on 46.5/40.6/86.7 shooting with 6.4 boards and 6.2 dimes in 34.6 minutes a night.
Are those numbers sustainable for his age-32 season? Maybe not, but the 20-5-5 line he posted over the 2021-22 and 2020-21 campaigns seems both doable and hugely helpful to his team’s title chances.
—Buckley
2022-23 Stats — 16.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 47.6 FG%, 38.7 3PT% (67 Games Played)
Primary Position — SG
O.G. Anunoby is already one of the NBA’s best three-and-D wings. He ranked third in Dunks and Threes’ defensive estimated plus/minus and shot 38.7 percent from deep on 5.5 attempts per game last season. There’s a chance that we have yet to witness Anunoby’s best, too. According to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, he’s “searching for greater ball-handling and playmaking duties in advance of his upcoming contract talks.”
Unless the Toronto Raptors trade him in the coming weeks, Anunoby might get his wish. They signed Dennis Schröder after losing Fred VanVleet to the Houston Rockets in free agency, but that downgrade should open the door for both Anunoby and third-year forward Scottie Barnes to absorb some of the Raptors’ playmaking responsibility.
Anunoby has a $19.9 million player option for the 2024-25 season that he’s all but guaranteed to decline, and the Raptors can offer him no more than a four-year, $116.9 million extension until he becomes a free agent. Don’t be surprised if Anunoby tries to show the full array of his skill set this season in a contract year.
—Toporek
2022-23 Stats — 17.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, 47.3 FG%, 39.6 3PT% (37 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Andrew Wiggins missed 45 regular-season games last year, including the last 25 to be with his father, who was dealing with a serious medical situation.
It looks like the B/R voters are expecting Wiggins to return to playing 70-plus games this season, which is a good bet. Up until last year, he had never missed more than 11 games in a season.
The 28-year-old showed why he’s a top-50 player with an excellent 2022 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics, and there’s every reason to expect him to find that level again as he gets into a better rhythm by playing in more regular-season games.
—Akeley
2022-23 Stats — 24.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 5.1 APG, 50.4 FG%, 32.4 3PT% (74 games played)
Primary Position — SF
In today’s pace-and-space NBA, DeMar DeRozan is an anachronism. He’s neither a high-volume nor a particularly accurate three-point shooter—he shot only 32.4 percent from deep on 1.9 attempts per game last season—which makes him stick out like a sore thumb.
Despite that, he’s been an All-Star in each of the past two seasons. He averaged a career-high 27.9 points per game on 50.4 percent shooting during his first year with the Chicago Bulls in 2021-22, and he chipped in 24.5 points, 5.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game last year.
While most players have gravitated toward close-range attempts and three-point shots thanks to the rise of “Moreyball,” DeRozan is one of the few remaining masters of the mid-range. He’s been among the 80th percentile or higher in efficiency from that area of the court in each of the past four seasons, according to Dunks and Threes, which helped him be one of the league’s most clutch players over that span. DeRozan’s underwhelming on-off splits and lack of playoff success raise questions about whether he could play a significant role on a championship team. Still, he’s averaged at least 20 points per game in each of the past 10 seasons, which has to count for something.
—Toporek
2022-23 Stats — 20.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.7 APG, 42.7 FG%, 29.8 3PT% (72 games played)
Primary Position — PF
Paolo Banchero checks in at this point of the rankings after a convincing rookie season of proving his power, shot-making and passing all translate to No. 1-option scoring and secondary playmaking.
Assuming he builds on his 29.8 percent three-point shooting, last year’s average of 20.0 points per game seems like a worst-case scenario for 2023-24. But he should also show up for season No. 2 with a better feel for NBA bigs’ length and strength inside the arc. And while assist numbers may stay the same with Anthony Black expected to join the rotation, his ability to facilitate at 6’10” remains a clear strength and plus for Orlando’s frontcourt.
—Jonathan Wasserman
2022-23 Stats — 25.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 49.9 FG%, 39.1 3PT% (66 Games Played)
Primary Position — PF
No player broke out in 2022-23 quite like Lauri Markkanen (hence, the Most Improved Player of the Year nod), as his basic averages skyrocketed from 14.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game.
The boost in production not only sent Markkanen to his first All-Star game, but it also made him an All-Star starter. And by the end of the season, he had to be considered one of the best play finishers in the game.
Despite a lack of playmaking prowess or production, Markkanen ranked in the 96th percentile in Dunks and Threes’ offensive estimated plus-minus. That had a lot to do with how economically he scored. He finished the season fourth in catch-and-shoot threes made (and shot 40.7 percent on those attempts) and 17th in dunks. He’s the first player on record to have a season with 200-plus threes and 100-plus dunks. And just to really drive the point on economics home, among players with at least 1,000 touches in 2022-23, Markkanen led the league in points per touch.
There is still some room for growth here. Markkanen could improve as a creator, passer and defender. But even if he doesn’t, his ability to impact a game is unquestionable now.
—Bailey
2022-23 Stats — 24.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG, 48.4 FG%, 30 3PT% (45 games played)
Primary Position — SG
The 2022-23 campaign was a tale of two seasons for Brandon Ingram. He missed most of the first half of the year with a big toe injury on his left foot, but he flashed superstar upside upon his return.
In his 21 appearances after the All-Star Game, Ingram averaged 27.3 points on 49.9 percent shooting, 6.9 assists and 6.0 rebounds in 36.5 minutes per game. The Pelicans went only 11-10 over those games, although star forward Zion Williamson missed all of them with a hamstring injury, while CJ McCollum was playing through both a torn UCL in his right thumb and a torn labrum in his right shoulder.
Whenever Williamson is healthy, Ingram figures to slide down to the Pelicans’ No. 2 scoring option. That makes his growth as a playmaker critical, especially since New Orleans doesn’t have a traditional, ball-dominant point guard in its starting lineup.
Whenever the Pelicans decide to pivot off the Williamson-Ingram-McCollum core, Ingram’s contract—he’s owed only $33.8 million this year and $36.0 million in 2024-25—should make him an appealing trade chip. Until then, he should be in the All-Star mix moving forward if he can sustain his late-season production from last year.
—Toporek
2022-23 Stats — 20.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.3 APG, 46.8 FG%, 38.2 3PT% (83 games played)
Primary Position — SG
Mikal Bridges was the designated defender with the Suns, taking on the opponent’s top scorer. Any offense he brought was a bonus (he still averaged 17.2 points a game through 56 last season in Phoenix).
Once Bridges was sent to the Brooklyn Nets, he got to show his complete skill set as an offensive player, averaging 26.1 points over 27 games. That’s why the (almost) 27-year-old forward has jumped to a top-25 ranking—and how many of those listed ahead of Bridges are better defenders? Very few.
The bigger question is, how good can an NBA team be with Bridges as the top scorer? That may not matter much during the regular season. Brooklyn has enough talent to win over 40 games (though it has yet to make many changes since the Kevin Durant trade). But is Bridges a dynamic enough scorer and playmaker (2.7 assists per game with the Nets) to push his squad through much tougher playoff defensive schemes?
—Pincus
2022-23 Stats — 26.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 49.1 FG%, 33.5 4PT% (67 games played)
Primary Position — SF
The collective eyeballs of the basketball world will be firmly affixed to Jaylen Brown this season as he attempts to justify signing the richest deal in NBA history. He might be one of the best co-stars in the business, but $300 million is lead-actor money.
Boston doesn’t need Brown to usurp Jayson Tatum, but it does need the 26-year-old swingman to tighten his handle and progress as a playmaker. Celtics fans will be overly eager for Brown to obliterate all lasting images of his final contest in 2022-23, a disastrous effort in a Game 7 loss of the Eastern Conference Finals lowlighted by 8-of-23 shooting (1-of-9 from distance) and eight turnovers.
The grading curve is up for Brown due to his historic pay raise, but he can absolutely earn his keep. Certain elements of his game need polishing, sure, but he is a relentless attacker with a typically reliable outside shot who can seamlessly shift through different defensive assignments. He may not elevate other players around him, but he usually wins his one-on-one battles—often in knockout fashion.
—Buckley
2022-23 Stats — 23.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.1 APG, 45.7 FG%, 37.1 3PT% (56 games played)
Primary Position — SG
For Paul George, the question isn’t talent; it’s availability. Like his LA Clippers teammate Kawhi Leonard, George is one of the league’s best two-way forwards. He’s an elite scorer who can defend multiple positions with his athletic 6’8″ frame.
He was named an All-Star last season but played in only 56 games, averaging 23.8 points with 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists. He missed time with knee and hamstring injuries, unable to get healthy for the postseason. Unfortunately, the 56 games were a personal best for George in Los Angeles—he averaged 78 for two years in Oklahoma City (2017-2019).
When he’s at full strength, George must be guarded on the perimeter, where he took 7.6 attempts a game, hitting 37.1 percent. He’s willing to play with or without the ball, creates for others and can guard the opponent’s best scorer. The key for George, who is extension-eligible and can opt out of his final year (48.8 million) after this season, is staying healthy.
—Pincus
2022-23 Stats — 23.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, 51.2 FG%, 41.6 3PT% (52 Games Played)
Primary Position — SF
Kawhi Leonard is the face of “load management.” It’s not ideal for the LA Clippers, who never seem to know when Leonard will be available to play. When he’s right, he’s the dominant mid-range scorer who led the Toronto Raptors to a title in 2019 and one of the league’s best players.
The Clippers tried to manage his games last season to keep him ready for the postseason. He played in just 52, averaging 23.8 points on an efficient 51.2 percent from the field and 41.6 percent from three-point range. But he couldn’t get through the first round of the playoffs, suffering a torn meniscus (knee) that all but ended the Clippers’ chances (see Paul George, also a part-time star player with injury concerns).
Leonard can carry a team’s offense while disrupting opponents as an elite defender when he is healthy. The Clippers would love just one single season with Leonard, George and the rest of the roster at full strength for a true postseason run. The talent is there, especially with an elite talent like Leonard—the luck just hasn’t lined up.
—Pincus
2022-23 Stats — 22.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.2 APG, 53.9 FG%, 35 3PT% (64 games played)
Primary Position — PF
Jimmy Butler played the majority of his minutes at the power forward spot last season, and he’s no stranger to the low post. But calling Butler a “big” doesn’t feel natural. So here we are, looking at the No. 4 wing for this upcoming season.
You wouldn’t think playing hard would be a defining characteristic in a professional sports league, but if Butler has a standout skill, his exhaustive effort and competitive drive might be it.
That isn’t intended to diminish his actual basketball talent, by the way. He can create off the bounce, score on the move and always fills out his punch card for frequent trips to the foul line. While outside shooting has rarely been a strength, his inside-the-arc touch is among the best around. The Jimmy Buckets moniker is far more than a clever nickname.
Despite spending his first eight seasons outside of South Beach, he’s become the living embodiment of Heat culture. He can out-skill his opponents, but he’d rather outwork them with full-speed runouts, downhill drives, relentless rebounding, on-ball tenacity and off-ball chaos-creation.
Injuries are a worry with the soon-to-be 34-year-old, as are the high-mileage minutes he’s so often tallied. But he’ll never go down without a ferocious fight, and he has given no indication to think that will change any time soon.
—Buckley
2022-23 Stats — 29.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 56.0 FG%, 40.4 3PT% (47 games played)
Primary Position — PF
Kevin Durant’s 35th birthday is fast approaching, but evidence of his aging process is tricky to find beyond some recent availability issues. If he plays, he’s still the same soul-snatching scorer he’s always been.
He is one of the game’s premier point-producers (in both the present and historical context), as a true three-level scorer and rock-solid secondary playmaker. He not only made his second entry into the famed 50/40/90 club this past season, but he also made it look absurdly easy, converting 56 percent of his field goals, 40.4 percent of his long-range looks and 91.9 percent of his free throws.
His shot-making is spectacular, to the point he has found uber-efficiency in the analytical dead zone known as the mid-range. Nearly half of his shots this past season were taken between 10 feet from the basket and the three-point arc. That would be an unhealthy shot diet for most, but Durant feasted to the tune of a 54.7 percent conversion rate in that range.
You wonder if his age, injury history and heavy offensive workload might damage his defense at some point, but that’s as far as the concern grows, since he hasn’t down-shifted at all on that end. In fact, the 1.2 defensive box plus/minus he posted this past season was his best mark since 2016-17.
—Buckley
2022-23 Stats — 28.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 6.8 APG, 50.0 FG%, 32.1 3PT% (55 games played)
Primary Position — PF
Here’s an example of the eye test. LeBron James has played the majority of his minutes at power forward over the last two seasons—and he’s played a lot more in the post as his career reaches its conclusion. But calling him a “big” isn’t quite right.
James has scored more points than anyone in NBA history. He would scoff at his final rating in our top 100, especially with a few key rivals just above him (and he’d undoubtedly disagree with a certain young star as well).
James will turn 39 before January, heading into his 21st season. Even if he’s not where he should be on our lists (from James’ point of view), he’s already made his case for top five on the GOAT list. And how many GOATs before him were still contributing at this high a level this deep into their careers?
Last season, James averaged 28.9 points a game with 8.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists. While his rebounding is down from the Lakers’ 2019-20 championship run (where he peaked at 10.2), his scoring has climbed (from 25.3 points a game that season). James is still capable of taking over playoff games (see Memphis Grizzlies or the final game of the Western Conference Finals) and remains the primary force teams have to game-plan for defensively.
Where he’s fallen off some is on the defensive end, where he measures his effort. He can no longer guard faster, shiftier guards or wings. The Lakers play him more at power forward and aim to give him easier defensive assignments to save his strength to drive the offense. James has also seemingly lost his three-point shot, hitting just 32.1 percent last year.
Another concern, given his age, is availability. James has struggled through injuries the last few seasons, including playing through the playoffs with a damaged foot (tendon). Through five seasons with the Lakers, he’s averaged just 55.6 games.
That, if any, may justify his final ranking in our top 100—though good luck selling LeBron on that.
—Pincus
2022-23 Stats — 30.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 46.6 FG%, 35.0 3PT% (74 games played)
Primary Position — SF
Jayson Tatum has taken his superstar ascension to such a towering height that very few rungs on the NBA ladder remain. There just aren’t many boxes to check at this point, and the biggest ones—MVP honors and a championship—are now distinct possibilities in each season he plays.
With his methodical and mega-productive play style, he is someone who so often makes you forget he’s all of 25 years old. It’s very possible (and maybe probable) we haven’t even seen him at his best yet, which is a nightmarish thought for 29 fanbases.
He is a scorer, first and foremost, and wholly dominant in that respect. In 2022-23, he nudged his scoring average north of 30 for the first time, and he is skilled enough to keep it there for the foreseeable future. He is comfortable, capable and confident in isolations, which are only growing harder to handle as his willingness and ability to distribute perpetually increase.
His defense is an underrated piece of the puzzle, too. He has both the physical tools and competitive edge to defend anyone but centers, and he has no hesitations about doing the dirty work necessary to grind out defensive possessions.
He still has room to grow in terms of shooting efficiency and creating for others, but again, time is on his side. If he adds that final coat of polish over the course of this campaign, he could easily exit it as the top two-way talent in the game.
—Buckley
Atlanta Hawks: N/A
Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum (1), Jaylen Brown (7)
Brooklyn Nets: Mikal Bridges (8), Cameron Johnson (20)
Charlotte Hornets: N/A
Chicago Bulls: DeMar DeRozan (12)
Cleveland Cavaliers: N/A
Dallas Mavericks: N/A
Denver Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr. (21)
Detroit Pistons: Bojan Bogdanović (27)
Golden State Warriors: Andrew Wiggins (13)
Houston Rockets: N/A
Indiana Pacers: Bruce Brown (24)
LA Clippers: Kawhi Leonard (5), Paul George (6)
Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James (2)
Memphis Grizzlies: N/A
Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler (4)
Milwaukee Bucks: Khris Middleton (15)
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels (28)
New Orleans Pelicans: Brandon Ingram (9)
New York Knicks: RJ Barrett (25), Josh Hart (29)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Josh Giddey (19)
Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero (11), Franz Wagner (16)
Philadelphia 76ers: Tobias Harris (30)
Phoenix Suns: Kevin Durant (3)
Portland Trail Blazers: Jerami Grant (18)
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray (26)
San Antonio Spurs: Keldon Johnson (23)
Toronto Raptors: O.G. Anunoby (14), Scottie Barnes (17)
Utah Jazz: Lauri Markkanen (10)
Washington Wizards: Kyle Kuzma (22)