Predicting the Top 10 NBA Stars of the Next 5 Seasons – Bleacher Report

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić and the rest of the NBA’s leading stars aren’t going anywhere. Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and the other top-end prospects in a loaded rookie class are set to begin making their marks on the league.
And that’s saying nothing of burgeoning talents such as Cade Cunningham, Paolo Banchero, Zion Williamson, Chet Holmgren and the many others who could bust out at a moment’s notice.
From a stardom perspective, the NBA is in a great place and will continue to thrive for the next five years—and well beyond.
It’s that five-year window that draws our interest here. Based on raw ability, statistical prowess, accolade likelihood and championship potential, 10 players will inevitably rise above the pack to assert themselves as the top stars of the next half-decade.
They won’t necessarily be the 10 leading contributors in 2023-24 or the 10 most valuable players of the 2027-28 campaign. But for the totality of that date range, they’ll stand above the pack.

Honorable Mentions: Joel Embiid, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Ja Morant
The NBA is brimming over with talent, to the point that this exercise requires painful cuts.
Joel Embiid is the league’s reigning MVP, but he also has an extensive injury history, will enter his 30s at the tail end of the 2023-24 campaign, and has a game that might not age too gracefully given his immense physicality.
De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, and Ja Morant could all sneak into the top 10 for a wide variety of reasons, though the field of high-level guards is impossibly deep.
Evan Mobley is the mystery-box entrant, capable of putting together all the tantalizing tools or continuing to fall a few tiers below the necessary level of offensive play. Consider this a massive vote of confidence in his game-changing abilities.
Aging Out: Jimmy Butler (38 in 2027-28), Stephen Curry (39), Anthony Davis (34), Kevin Durant (39), Paul George (37), Kyrie Irving (35), LeBron James (43), Kawhi Leonard (36), Damian Lillard (37)
Each of these nine stars can function as a top-10 player during any of the next five seasons, but it’s harder to bank on sustained production given their relatively advanced ages. Except for Anthony Davis, who might as well be in his 40s in injury years, everyone will be past the halfway point of their 30s by the end of the date range.
History has shown us that’s not easy to overcome.
Also considered: Bam Adebayo, LaMelo Ball, Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane, Scottie Barnes, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, Darius Garland, Tyrese Haliburton, Chet Holmgren, Brandon Ingram, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jamal Murray, Domantas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson, Trae Young

Age in 2027-28: 26
2022-23 Stats: 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 38
Before Cade Cunningham was shut down in mid-December due to season-ending surgery on a stress fracture in his left shin, the Detroit Pistons guard was doing his darnedest to prove worthy of the No. 1 overall selection used on him in the 2021 NBA draft.
Though his three-point shot still wasn’t clicking, he was cutting back on his turnovers and making smarter decisions while averaging 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists for a young Motor City outfit largely learning on the fly. The 21-year-old still has the combination of size (6’7″, 220 lbs) and skill to become one of the league’s brightest young talents. He can push around smaller defenders, dribble past bigger ones and keep everyone honest as he finds his developing teammates with pinpoint passes.
Between the injuries and the relative anonymity of playing for a bottom-feeding Pistons team, Cunningham hasn’t yet been central to the national NBA discourse. That’s about to change, especially if the improved release point on display throughout exhibition season sticks during the regular season.

Age in 2027-28: 31
2022-23 Stats: 27.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 9
Devin Booker put on a scorching shooting display throughout the 2023 postseason, cementing himself as one of the NBA’s preeminent offensive talents. His point-producing acumen extends well beyond his deadly accuracy off the bounce, too, since he’s continuously improved as a willing and capable facilitator able to make an impact even without aiming for nylon.
However, the Phoenix Suns shooting guard isn’t a consistently excellent defender, and it’s vital to remember that his playoff performance wasn’t his established norm. Booker lifted his scoring average by 5.9 points per game and coupled that with an 8.5-point lift to his true shooting percentage.
Yes, the 26-year-old deserves credit for his ability to elevate his play when games matter most. He’s ranked within the top 10 here for a reason. But per Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus (tied with Darius Garland and Aaron Gordon at 24th) and estimated wins (41st after playing just 53 games) during the regular season, Booker hasn’t sustained that peak ability.
The top-end talent, however sporadically it’s appeared, to prove this ranking too conservative certainly exists. It’s just not reliable yet.

Age in 2027-28: 24
2022-23 stats: 16.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks (for G League Ignite)
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 83
Even though Scoot Henderson hasn’t yet played a game at the NBA level, his talent is blindingly obvious.
Though typical rookie pitfalls (shooting inefficiency and elevated turnover numbers) surely await during the 2023-24 campaign, Henderson does have two years of experience playing against professional competition in the G League, which should help his incredible tools translate expediently. Few players possess his ability to change pace and direction while maintaining on-a-string handles and the potential energy to burst toward the rim like he’s shot out of a cannon.
Whether you’re seeing shades of Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Ja Morant or [insert explosive guard here] in his raw game, the Georgia native has through-the-roof upside that should be realized sooner than later.
Putting a teenager within the top 10 of these five-year rankings is risky. The best players in the league, especially over a sustained stretch, are typically in their mid-20s or, in some cases, their early 30s.
But Henderson isn’t a normal prospect, much to Rip City’s delight.

Age in 2027-28: 29
2022-23 Stats: 31.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.0 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 11
The full list of players to average 30 points, four rebounds, five assists, one steal, and one block during a qualified game throughout NBA history?
Brace yourself. It’s a short one:
That’s it.
Gilgeous-Alexander broke out all the way last season, lifting a youthful Oklahoma City Thunder squad to 40 wins and a set of play-in appearances behind his all-around excellence.
The Thunder improved by 4.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, transitioning from a struggling outfit to a legitimate threat behind his ability to thrive in isolation, get to the basket no matter the opposing scheme, create open looks for his teammates, and at least hold his own defensively.
Gilgeous-Alexander is already an All-NBA talent at 25 years old, and he’s not done improving. Given that he’s always shot better than 80 percent at the stripe and is coming off a season in which he canned 90.5 percent of his 10.9 charity attempts per game, improvements to his lackluster three-point shooting are coming.

Age in 2027-28: 26
2022-23 Stats: 24.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 15
What can’t Anthony Edwards do?
The Georgia product’s feel for the game has improved immensely during his brief time in the Association. He’s gone from an isolation-happy scorer who didn’t know where to stand in off-ball scenarios and often felt lost on the defensive end to an all-around player capable of operating—and dominating—within the flow of the game on both ends.
And he only turned 22 years old in August.
Per FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric, Edwards improved from minus-0.7 WAR in 2020-21 to 6.3 in 2021-22 and 8.0 in 2022-23, and those strides came as he made gains on both sides of the floor. Plus, he was that much better during the Timberwolves’ brief postseason experience last season, averaging 31.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists while slashing 48.2/34.9/84.6 as his total RAPTOR rose from plus-1.6 to an astounding plus-12.4.
Edwards is the rare player who could conceivably win a scoring title and make an All-Defensive squad in the same season, should he continue putting all the physical tools together. He’s the future of the league at shooting guard.

Age in 2027-28: 25
2022-23 Stats: 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks (for Metropolitans 92)
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 63
Victor Wembanyama is a generational prospect with all-world potential. Coming into the league with arguably as much hype as any rising rookie since LeBron James, he’s expected to thrive from the moment he steps onto the court for the San Antonio Spurs.
Surely, Defensive Player of the Year trophies await thanks to his preternatural instincts and Pterodactyl wingspan. He may also compete for scoring titles with his combination of finishing touch and off-the-bounce shooting, which doesn’t make sense to find in a 19-year-old big man listed at 7’4″, 209 pounds.
The sky is the limit, and hyperbole feels all but impossible.
Then again, Wembanyama hasn’t yet proven himself against the best competition in the world. His thin frame could lead to trajectory-derailing injury woes. He wouldn’t be the first touted prospect to flame out rather than realize all the mind-numbing potential.
Consider this placement a compromise. The hype around Wembanyama is so real and so deserved that he merits the loftiest placement possible in this type of exercise, but we’ll have to keep things in check and stop short of elevating him into the four-man tier yet to come.

Age in 2027-28: 33
2022-23 Stats: 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 2
At this point in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s career, which is the more foolish belief: that the Milwaukee Bucks superstar will still develop a reliable jumper, or that he will be held back by his lack of shooting ability?
Antetokounmpo is who he is. And that’s why it’s almost irrelevant that he’s coming off a campaign in which he hit just 27.5 percent of his 2.7 tries per game from beyond the rainbow.
Even as we evaluate a stretch in which he’ll turn 33 and be forced to counteract declining physical abilities, he’s so good at getting to the basket and manipulating defenses through sheer athleticism, length and time-warping movement that significant declines are unlikely.
Will Antetokounmpo be an MVP frontrunner in 2027-28? Probably not, though ruling out such award dalliances would be premature. He’s also surely going to push for more time spent with The Michael Jordan Trophy in the immediate future, which does remain part of the five-year window.
In other words? Expect plenty more Eurostep dunks that show off impossible length and ability for a while longer.

Age in 2027-28: 29
2022-23 Stats: 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 5
Though Jayson Tatum hasn’t gotten over the hump to bring a championship to Beantown, the do-everything forward has only continued to establish himself as one of the NBA’s premier talents.
In 2022-23, Tatum averaged over 30 points for the first time in his impressive career, throwing up 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 46.6 percent from the field, 35.0 percent from downtown and 85.4 percent at the stripe.
But does anyone really think that’s the best he’ll do?
Tatum is a phenomenal scoring talent capable of putting up points in a wide variety of fashions. Should he put together a high-volume season in which he cans his triples at over a 40 percent clip, a scoring title likely awaits. Plus, the Duke product has become increasingly comfortable shouldering high-volume scoring responsibilities while still involving his teammates and conserving the energy necessary to play effective defense.
The 19-year-old 25-year-old has arrived as a full-fledged superstar, and the best is yet to come.

Age in 2027-28: 32
2022-23 Stats: 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 1
Which part of Nikola Jokić’s game is going to age poorly?
As he enters his 30s, maybe he’ll become even slower of foot and trod up and down the floor at a snail’s pace. If his athleticism and explosion wane, perhaps he’ll decline from the 29 dunks he made in 2023-24 and only slam the ball through the hoop a dozen times. He may even—gasp—have to rely more heavily on his court vision.
All of this is to say that Jokić has a game that should age as gracefully as any other star in the history of the Association. He’s so dependent on timing, understanding of angles, and careful dissection of the opposing troops that he should be able to plod along in his late 30s and continue to play the same style of basketball, much less do so during a five-year window in which he’ll only turn 32.
Jokić is currently the best player in basketball, the winner of two of the last three MVPs who put on an absolute clinic during the 2023 postseason after Joel Embiid snatched that individual trophy away. He’s not likely to vacate that status in the near future, either.
Consider his placement at No. 2 less a knock on him and more a commendation of the ridiculous talent-youth combination of the top finisher.

Age in 2027-28: 28
2022-23 Stats: 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks
B/R Staff Rank for 2023-24: No. 3
Most NBA players don’t tend to hit their true peaks until their mid-to-late 20s.
Dating back to Bob Pettit in 1955-56, only eight MVP winners have held up the trophy before their age-24 seasons. Of the 68 honorees, the most common ages are 27 and 28, with 10 victories apiece. The average age of an MVP winner checks in at 27.1.
Luka Dončić is entering his age-24 season, as determined by age on Feb. 1 of the campaign in question.
The Dallas Mavericks superstar averaged an eye-popping 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.0 assists last year while slashing 49.6/34.2/74.2. Dunks and Threes’ EPM ranked him sixth in the league, trailing only Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, and Kawhi Leonard. Throw in volume considerations by looking at estimated wins, and Dončić elevates to No. 4, trailing just Jokić, Embiid, and Jayson Tatum.
And that was during a turbulent go-round in which he played just 66 games while trying to make in-season adjustments to mesh his playing style with an incoming, ball-dominant fellow All-Star.
The best is yet to come for the Slovenian superstar who might reach unfathomable heights when all parts of his game fully coalesce.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference.

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