Sports
NBA players who Hall of Fame probability locks, based on Basketball Reference – Insider
Jump to
Teams: Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers (current)
Age: 37
Years in the NBA: 20
Accolades: 4x MVP, 4x Champion, 4x Finals MVP, 18x All-Star, 18x All-NBA, 6x All-Defensive, NBA 75th Anniversary Team, Olympic gold
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 100%
One thing to know: Duh.
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State Warriors, Brooklyn Nets (current)
Age: 33
Years in the NBA: 15
Accolades: 1x MVP, 2x Champion, 2x Finals MVP, 12x All-Star, 10x All-NBA, NBA 75th Anniversary Team, Olympic gold
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 100%
One thing to know: Durant, who currently ranks 24th all-time in points, is just 3,070 points away from passing Shaquille O’Neal for 10th on the list. He could conceivably do that in the next two years, while still winning an MVP and a championship. Durant could soon boast a résumé matched by few others in league history.
Teams: New Orleans Hornets, LA Clippers, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns (current)
Age: 37
Years in the NBA: 17
Accolades: 12x All-Star, 11x All-NBA, 9x All-Defensive, NBA 75th Anniversary Team, Olympic gold
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 100%
One thing to know: Paul has never won a championship or an MVP (he’s finished in the top five of voting five times), but he’s one of the most respected two-way players of all time. The “Point God” is still third all-time in assists and fourth all-time in steals and still going.
Teams: Golden State Warriors (current)
Age: 34
Years in the NBA: 13
Accolades: 2x MVP, 4x Champion, 1x Finals MVP, 8x All-Star, 8x All-NBA, NBA 75th Anniversary Team
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 99.9%
One thing to know: Curry is already the all-time leader in made three-pointers. With an average of 325 threes over his three healthy seasons, just how much of a lead will Curry build, and how long will it take for someone to catch him?
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers (current)
Age: 33
Years in the NBA: 13
Accolades: 1x MVP, 10x All-Star, 9x All-NBA, Sixth Man of the Year, NBA 75th Anniversary Team
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 99.9%
One thing to know: The record books won’t show just how close Harden was to racking up more MVPs — he, like Paul, has finished in the top five in voting five times.
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Washington Wizards, Los Angeles Lakers (current)
Age: 33
Years in the NBA: 14
Accolades: MVP, 9x All-Star, 9x All-NBA, NBA 75th Anniversary Team
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 99.9%
One thing to know: His career has taken an ugly turn as his production wanes while his salary grows, but Westbrook is inarguably a hallmark player of this era. Fans will one day look back and marvel at Westbrook averaging a triple-double four different times.
Teams: Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 36
Years in the NBA: 18
Accolades: 1x champion, 8x All-Star, 8x All-NBA, 3x Defensive Player of the Year, Olympic gold
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 99.7%
One thing to know: We previously argued that Howard’s Hall of Fame case was controversial because of the lackluster second half of his career. Yet it says something about how dominant he was when he was younger that he racked up such a strong résumé over the first 10 years of his career.
Teams: New Orleans Hornets/Pelicans, Los Angeles Lakers (current)
Age: 29
Years in the NBA: 10
Accolades: 1x champion, 8x All-Star, 4x All-NBA, 4x All-Defensive, NBA 75th Anniversary Team, Olympic gold, NCAA champion
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 98.5%
One thing to know: From 2015-20, Davis averaged 26 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks per game and was widely considered a top-10 player. He’s primed for a bounce-back season, and he’s not yet even 30.
Teams: Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 38
Years in the NBA: 19
Accolades: 10x All-Star, 6x All-NBA, NBA 75th Anniversary Team, Olympic Gold, NCAA championship
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 98.4%
One thing to know: The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame considers all levels of basketball, and Anthony was a college champion and one of the greatest Olympic players in American history. He may not have an overwhelming NBA case (compared to some of his peers), but he is only 307 points away from passing Shaquille O’Neal for 10th all-time in points.
Teams: Milwaukee Bucks (current)
Age: 27
Years in the NBA: 9
Accolades: 2x MVP, 1x Champion, 1x Finals MVP, 6x All-Star, 6x All-NBA, 1x Defensive Player of the Year, 5x All-Defensive, NBA 75th Anniversary Team
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 87.1%
One thing to know: Antetokounmpo is racking up the accolades, and he won’t turn 28 until December. Largely considered the best player in the world now, Antetokounmpo is slated to dominate for years to come while his Bucks should be in the championship mix for at least another year or two.
Teams: San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors, LA Clippers (current)
Age: 31
Years in the NBA: 11
Accolades: 2x Champion, 2x Finals MVP, 1x Defensive Player of the Year, 5x All-Star, 5x All-NBA, 7x All-Defensive, NBA 75th Anniversary Team
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 77.6%
One thing to know: Leonard is one of the rare players whose résumé understates his impact. He was a late bloomer who broke out in the 2014 Finals, suffocating the Miami Heat with his defense en route to Finals MVP and his first championship. He’s taken a star turn since then, dominating when healthy, but he’s essentially missed two full seasons (just nine games played in 2017-18) with injuries. Make no mistake: Leonard is a top-10 player when healthy and cruising toward the Hall of Fame.
Teams: Golden State Warriors (current)
Age: 32
Years in the NBA: 10
Accolades: 4x Champion, 1x Defensive Player of the Year, 4x All-Star, 2x All-NBA, 7x All-Defensive
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 76.8%
One thing to know: Green’s closest comp is Dennis Rodman (who is in the Hall of Fame). Green doesn’t put up big scoring stats or make flashy plays, but he has anchored the Warriors on the defensive end for nearly a decade and is nearly as crucial on the offense. The Warriors aren’t the Warriors without him.
Teams: Golden State Warriors (current)
Age: 32
Years in the NBA: 11
Accolades: 4x Champion, 5x All-Star, 2x All-NBA, 1x All-Defensive
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 70.2%
One thing to know: One of the three or four greatest shooters of all time, Thompson has excelled in his role, which is as a glorified “3-and-D” player. He does it better than most and has routinely helped the Warriors win at the highest levels.
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 90.6%
One thing to know: Lillard’s been one of the most dynamic point guards in the NBA and owns some historically clutch playoff moments. But will his lack of success in later postseason rounds hurt him?
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 84%
One thing to know: George can fly under the radar as a two-way swingman. He’s been great, but there aren’t many defining moments in his career. That could change this year, as his Clippers look like true championship contenders.
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 83.6%
One thing to know: Irving has a championship, an all-time clutch moment, plus the highlights and stats to get him in the Hall. But will his reputation as a disruptive team member hurt him?
Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame probability: 71%
One thing to know: Like Kawhi Leonard, Butler’s résumé looks smaller because he wasn’t a star immediately. But a highly regarded two-way force and one who carried a team to the Finals in 2020, Butler is certainly on track to make the Hall of Fame.
Read next