Sports
Starting Lineups That Are Still a Mess After NBA Free Agency – Bleacher Report
The 2023 NBA offseason is far from over, as we’re still two months away from training camps opening up.
This is good news for the following teams, who still face a lot of questions about their starting five after a summer of debatable decisions, players leaving in free agency or simply not addressing needs.
These are the teams that have the messiest starting fives heading into the 2023-24 season.
Projected Starters: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges and Mark Williams
The Hornets’ starting five feels very unsettled at the moment.
Free agent Kelly Oubre Jr., who started 40 of his 48 games for Charlotte last season, is almost certainly not coming back, although he’s still yet to sign with another team. P.J. Washington, who started all 73 of his contests at power forward, is a restricted free agent and has yet to sign an offer sheet or agree to a new deal with the Hornets.
Finding the right time for No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller to enter the starting five is an issue as well, as he could begin the season over Hayward at small forward or be forced to earn his role by veteran head coach Steve Clifford. He’ll certainly end the season as a starter, although this may take some time after shooting just 35.4 percent overall and averaging 4.7 fouls a game during summer league in Las Vegas.
Bridges is still facing a 10-game suspension after missing all of last season after being charged with three counts of felony domestic violence. He started all 80 of his games during the 2021-22 season.
While LaMelo Ball is locked in as the franchise’s point guard for the next six years and Williams looks the part of a full-time starting center (11.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, 62.7 percent shooting in 17 starts as a rookie), there are too many questions surrounding the rest of this group.
After possessing one of the worst starting lineups in the NBA last season (Ball, Rozier, Hayward, Washington and Williams had a minus-7.9 net rating in 177 possessions, 22nd percentile per Cleaning the Glass), even the possible additions of Bridges coming off a year of not playing and a rookie in Miller won’t move the needle much this season.
Projected Starters: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanović, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren
Pistons general manager Troy Weaver has made a lot of nice additions to this Pistons roster over the past few years, although his preference to stockpile big men like this is the 1990’s could doom Detroit’s season.
The Pistons’ best lineups will almost certainly feature Bojan Bogdanović at power forward, as the 34-year-old isn’t getting any quicker yet has the size (6’7″, 226 pounds) to play the four on a regular basis. Last season, Detroit was 13.9 points per 100 possessions better when Bogdanović played power forward instead of small forward.
Of course, Bogdanović is likely going to be pushed out onto the wing simply to make time for all of the bigs on this roster, as players like Duren, Stewart, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman all started 22 games or more last season.
Stewart is being miscast as a floor-spacing power forward, as his three-point percentage has essentially flatlined the past three years (33.3 percent, 32.6 percent, 32.7 percent). He’d be best as a small-ball five behind Duren, although that leaves precious few minutes left over for Wiseman and Bagley.
All of Detroit’s two-big lineups were horrible last season, as the Pistons were clobbered by 12.5 points per 100 possessions with Stewart at power forward next to Duren, Wiseman or Bagley (5th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass in 1,005 total possessions).
This roster is screaming for a trade, swapping out Wiseman, Bagley (or both) for a wing while letting Bogdanović space the floor at power forward and opening up driving lanes for players like Cunningham, Ivey and rookie Ausar Thompson.
Projected Starters: Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün
The Rockets still land on this list despite having committed $215 million to two new starters in free agency.
Both have their work cut out for them, however, as Houston’s starters ranked 29th in net rating (minus-6.1), 28th in effective field goal percentage (52.3 percent) and dead last in assist-to-turnover rating (1.42) a season ago.
Adding VanVleet will have the biggest impact.
Kevin Porter Jr. is a combo guard and terrific catch-and-shoot threat who likely becomes the team’s sixth man while backup up both VanVleet and Green. Putting a veteran pass-first point guard in his place will raise the floor of this offense and help get everyone their shots.
Still, both VanVleet and Brooks will need to buy into smaller offensive roles if they want this team to hit its ceiling, prioritizing the growth of players like Green, Smith and Şengün.
Good luck with that.
“The primary reason the Grizzlies were trying to replace Dillon Brooks for a full two years, repeatedly going after players that would have replaced him in the trade market, and he probably would have been sent out, was because of the shot selection issue.” ESPN’s Tim McMahon said on The Lowe Post podcast. “Dillon did not want to be a fourth or fifth offensive weapon.”
Every shot that Brooks clangs off the rim this season is taking away from the incredibly high ceiling that this Rockets team possesses. With Houston already one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA last season, Brooks’ overall marks (45.1 percent on twos, 32.6 percent on threes) will only drive their offense further into the mud.
While the VanVleet signing was a home run, the addition of Brooks is going to prove to be a massive mistake.
Projected Starters: Dennis Schröder, O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl
An already shaky starting lineup losing its All-Star point guard doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence for the 2022-23 Raptors, who now replace Fred VanVleet with Dennis Schröder.
Schröder, 29, averaged 13.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 0.8 steals in 32.4 minutes in his 50 starts with the Lakers last season and has essentially split his 10-year career between starter and reserve. While he’s the best option Toronto is left with, Schröder isn’t a good fit on a team that already struggled to shoot with any kind of efficiency last season.
The Raptors ranked 28th overall in effective field goal percentage last year (51.7 percent), a number Schröder’s 47.2 percent mark in 2022-23 isn’t going to help. Schröder isn’t a good three-point shooter (32.9 percent, 1.1 makes per game), again, not elevating a team that desperately needed more help from the outside (10.7 made threes per game, 28th overall).
As talented individually as players like Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes and Poeltl are, these four on the floor together without VanVleet had a net rating of minus-6.9 in 144 total possessions last season (20th percentile, via Cleaning the Glass).
The Raptors simply can’t go into the season as-is.
The parts don’t fit, Schröder is a downgrade from VanVleet and both Siakam and Anunoby can leave in free agency next season. For a team that just finished 41-41 and missed the playoffs, simply running back the same group minus VanVleet isn’t getting Toronto anywhere.
The Raptors need to keep working the trade market this summer, exploring point guard upgrades, adding shooting and highlighting the strengths of the existing talent on the roster.
Projected Starters: Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma and Daniel Gafford
No matter who the Wizards end up starting come October, this is destined to be one of the worst units in the league.
Jones and Poole are likely locked in as the backcourt starters, although Poole will likely get plenty of point guard time as a lead ball-handler. Kispert and Deni Avdija will be in a battle for the starting small forward spot while Kuzma and Gafford are starters by default.
While there’s some potential for fireworks on a nightly basis with Poole and Kuzma getting the green light, this isn’t a good defensive core, nor is there much potential for rebounding prowess. The three-man combo of Kuzma, Kispert and Gafford had a net rating of minus-3.4 in 809 total possessions last season per Cleaning the Glass.
These projected five almost certainly finish out the season, however, as the Wizards have motivation to be bad.
Washington only gets to keep its 2024 first-round pick if it falls in the top-12 selections overall, with anything over going to the New York Knicks. The rebuilding Wizards only re-signed the 28-year-old Kuzma to avoid losing him in free agency for nothing, as he’ll begin popping up in trade rumors likely as early as December. The same can be said for the 27-year-old Jones, who’s on an expiring $14 million contract and can be shopped to point-guard needy teams.
While this is the starting five for now, don’t be surprised to see a Poole-Johnny Davis-Bilal Coulibaly-Avdia-Gafford lineup to eventually close the season.