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Offseason Power Rankings: Bucks return to the top of the East – NBA.com
See where all 15 teams in the Eastern Conference rank after a busy offseason.
John Schuhmann
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks posted the best record in the NBA last season.
The Eastern Conference has been the stronger conference in each of the last two regular seasons and its 2022-23 record in interconference games (236-214, .524) was its best mark in the last 24 years. For the first time in 42 years, the league’s three best records belonged to teams that resided in the East.
But the West won another championship (its 17th in the last 25 years) and those top three teams in the East were all dealing with some frustration as they hit the 2023 offseason. The Boston Celtics have the most wins (including playoffs) of any team in the last seven years but have reached the Finals just once in that stretch, losing a 2-1 series lead to the Golden State Warriors 13 months ago. The Milwaukee Bucks won a championship in 2021, but have dealt with critical injuries in the two years since. The Philadelphia 76ers haven’t been able to make it out of the second round despite being the only team that’s been better than average on both ends of the floor in each of the last six seasons.
So the Celtics traded the heart of their team and the Bucks parted ways with the league’s most successful coach of the last five years. And the Sixers might be the team with the most turmoil, dealing with an unhappy point guard who might just tear the whole thing down.
Behind the top three are some teams on the come-up. And oh yeah, the defending Eastern Conference champs are the preferred destination of a guy who’s averaged 27.9 points (second to only Giannis Antetokounmpo) over the last seven years.
Maybe that trade comes soon. Maybe it comes later (Donovan Mitchell was traded on Sept. 3 last year). Maybe it doesn’t come at all. Either way, it’s time for some mid-summer Power Rankings.
For these offseason rankings, we’re looking at each conference separately and we’ll have Western Conference rankings next Monday. All stats refer to the 2022-23 regular season unless otherwise noted.
Previous Power Rankings
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
The league averaged 114.1 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.8 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes last season.
NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, send him an e-mail or contact him via Twitter.
2022-23 record: 58-24
OffRtg: 114.3 (15) DefRtg: 110.9 (4) NetRtg: +3.4 (5) Pace: 101.5 (10)
Key addition(s): Malik Beasley
Key departure(s): Joe Ingles, Jevon Carter
Coaching change: Mike Budenholzer out, Adrian Griffin in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: What does Griffin change?
As noted above, the Budenholzer system worked really well. Since Jrue Holiday arrived three years ago, the Bucks have outscored their opponents by 11.5 points per 100 possessions in 2,600 total minutes with him, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor together. In any system, the Bucks will be really good as long as those three guys are healthy.
But it will be fascinating to see how things change, especially offensively, under Griffin. And it would be nice to have somebody other than Antetokounmpo who can get to the basket. Though their star led the league in total points in the paint, the Bucks ranked 28th in the percentage of their total shots (28%) that came inside.
Defensively, the Bucks made adjustments to defend the 3-point line better, but still got torched (Miami shot 45%) from deep in the first round of the playoffs. So, while there may be no improving on the overall numbers, there are potential tweaks to be made on both ends of the floor.
2022-23 record: 57-25
OffRtg: 117.3 (2) DefRtg: 110.6 (2) NetRtg: +6.7 (1) Pace: 99.2 (19)
Key addition(s): Kristaps Porzingis
Key departure(s): Marcus Smart, Grant Williams
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How important was Smart in the locker room?
Smart for Porzingis is about as fascinating a trade (that doesn’t involve a top-20 player) as you’re going to see in this league. (Jordan Poole for Chris Paul is also pretty wild.) Smart has plenty of skill, but his value is largely about the stuff you can’t measure. And while the Celtics still have enough capable guards, his departure surely leaves a void in the locker room. With Williams also leaving, this team lost a large percentage of whatever toughness it had.
It still has a chance of being the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have the most total wins in the league over the last seven years (including playoffs), and maybe they needed a change to get them over the hump. Porzingis (who turns 28 this week) remains a unicorn, the only player in the 44 years of the 3-point line to twice average at least two 3-pointers and at least 1.5 blocks per game. He’s coming off the best year of his career, where he was one of only four players – Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Lauri Markkanen were the others – to average at least 23 points on a true shooting percentage of 62% or better in 60 games or more.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are still just 25 and 26 years old, respectively. And with Brown now under contract for the next six seasons, the Celtics still have a big window in regard to contending for a championship with that duo. But the pressure to finally break through is obviously pretty high given how close they’ve come the last two years.
2022-23 record: 54-28
OffRtg: 117.0 (3) DefRtg: 112.7 (8) NetRtg: +4.4 (3) Pace: 97.4 (27)
Key addition(s): Patrick Beverley
Key departure(s): Shake Milton, Georges Niang
Coaching change: Doc Rivers out, Nick Nurse in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How do they fix this?
The Sixers are right there. They had the third-best record in the league last season, they ranked in the top 10 on both ends of the floor, and they had a 3-2 series lead on the Celtics in the conference semis. They have the reigning MVP, he’s 29 years old, and he has a strong supporting cast, including a point guard who has set him up better than any teammate he’s ever had. James Harden’s 244 assists to Joel Embiid last season were the most for any player to a single teammate in the last six seasons* and 89 more than any other player had to a single teammate in 2022-23.
* Since John Wall had 245 to Bradley Beal in 2016-17.
The Sixers have cycled through a handful of supporting casts for Embiid and have managed to remain competitive with each one. But it seems like they really can’t let this one fall apart. Harden, for some reason, wants out of what may be his best remaining chance to win a championship. And it’s not clear how the Sixers grant his wish and remain a title contender. Heck, it’s not clear how they come back as strong if they don’t trade Harden and just hope that he’ll give them all he’s got while he’s still here.
It should be fun to see how Nick Nurse shakes things up, and Tyrese Maxey can certainly pick up some of the slack. But even if those things are positives, how exactly do the Sixers move forward in a way that has elite talent all pulling in the same direction?
2022-23 record: 47-35
OffRtg: 117.0 (4) DefRtg: 114.2 (19) NetRtg: +2.8 (7) Pace: 97.8 (26)
Key addition(s): Donte DiVincenzo
Key departure(s): Obi Toppin
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Does RJ Barrett become more of an attacker?
The Knicks lead the league in continuity, with 90% of their 2022-23 regular-season minutes coming from players who are still on the roster for ’23-24. They added Jalen Brunson a year ago, he pushed them into the top five offensively, and it’s clear now that he’s the guy. But despite Brunson’s brilliance, the overall offense wasn’t great in the playoffs, ranking 13th in the first round and seventh in the conference semis. So the focus turns back to the core that was already here pre-Brunson.
In his fourth season in the league, Barrett ranked last in pull-up 2-point percentage (27.4%) among 142 players with at least 75 attempts and last in pull-up 3-point percentage (19.6%) among 131 players with at least 50 attempts. He also wasn’t a very good finisher inside, with his 51.2% shooting in the paint ranking 179th among 204 players with at least 200 attempts. But an attacking Barrett is better than a settling Barrett and there were playoff games (Game 4 vs. Cleveland especially) when Barrett made big plays by aggressively attacking the paint. It would be good if he can have that mentality more consistently as he plays off of Brunson going forward.
2022-23 record: 51-31
OffRtg: 115.5 (8) DefRtg: 109.9 (1) NetRtg: +5.6 (2) Pace: 96.3 (30)
Key addition(s): Max Strus, Georges Niang
Key departure(s): Cedi Osman
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can they rebound?
The Cavs still have the same number of players (5) that shot the league average or better on at least 100 3-point attempts last season as they did at the end of the season, having lost Osman and added Niang. But with two primary ball-handlers, their shooters will often be spaced in the corners, and Niang (52.6% on 78 attempts) and Strus (45.1% on 162 attempts) shot better from the corners than Osman (44.4% on 81 attempts) and Isaac Okoro (37.1% on 151 attempts). As a team, Cleveland ranked 24th in corner 3-point percentage (37.2%) and they’ll now be better at making defenses pay for loading up against their guards. More polish in Evan Mobley’s offensive game will do the same.
But this team still needs to be stronger on the glass. In the regular season, the Cavs ranked 20th in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. In the first round of the playoffs, they allowed the Knicks to grab 39.4% of available offensive rebounds, the highest rate for any team in any series in the last nine years. That number was lower (32.1%) with Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the floor together, but their one-big minutes were bad, both on the glass and on offense (95.4 points scored per 100 possessions).
The Cavs have made two big leaps in the last two seasons, from minus-8.3 points per 100 possessions in 2020-21 to plus-2.1 in ’21-22 and plus-5.6 last season. And with the potential of Mobley, they can still get much better, even if there’s not another big jump to make statistically.
2022-23 record: 44-38
OffRtg: 112.3 (25) DefRtg: 112.8 (9) NetRtg: -0.5 (21) Pace: 96.8 (29)
Key addition(s): Josh Richardson
Key departure(s): Max Strus, Gabe Vincent
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Will Damian Lillard be on this team on Oct. 24?
The Heat took a couple of big hits when Vincent and Strus (fourth and fifth on the team in total playoff minutes) left in free agency. They’re surely building a couple of more undrafted rotation players in the Biscayne Bay laboratory, but they’re also seemingly waiting on a trade for one of the 10 highest-paid players in the league. The NBA sent a memo to teams on Friday saying Lillard would honor his contract in any potential trade, however, not just his reported preferred destination of Miami.
Nonetheless, we should never doubt this group’s ability to find ways to win. It’s worth noting that the Heat’s rotation is looking pretty shallow. They were outscored (they had the point differential of a 40-42 team) in the regular season last year, they’re built around two guys who don’t shoot particularly well from outside the paint, and one of them (Jimmy Butler) will be 34 in September, having missed 78 (regular-season) games over his four years in Miami.
Stay tuned.
2022-23 record: 41-41
OffRtg: 115.5 (7) DefRtg: 115.4 (22) NetRtg: +0.1 (19) Pace: 101.6 (6)
Key addition(s): N/A
Key departure(s): John Collins
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Will one of the young guys make a leap?
The Hawks’ backcourt could certainly be better and more cohesive. Atlanta outscored its opponents by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions (with decent-but-not-great offensive numbers) when Trae Young and Dejounte Murray were on the floor together last season. We should remember that head coach Quin Snyder (who had the league’s No. 1 offense in his final season in Utah) arrived on the day between Games 61 and 62. So there should be some changes in his first full season on the Atlanta bench.
But maybe there’s more room for improvement with three players – AJ Griffin, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu – who are all still under the age of 23. The departure of Collins could lead to more time for Okongwu, but the 22-year-old attempted just 13 3-pointers and, not coincidentally, played just five minutes alongside Clint Capela last season. Johnson was disruptive defensively, but also needs to be better from beyond the arc (29% last season) to complement the Hawks’ starting guards. Griffin, meanwhile, just may need more minutes. As a rookie, he shot 39% on more than 250 3-point attempts, was one of 15 players who shot 50% or better on at least 100 pull-up 2s, and finished pretty well in the paint (56.6%) for a rookie guard.
Of course, this is already a good offensive team, and the other end of the floor is where player development, along with Snyder’s game planning, really needs to make an impact.
2022-23 record: 40-42
OffRtg: 112.8 (24) DefRtg: 111.5 (5) NetRtg: +1.3 (13) Pace: 99.2 (18)
Key addition(s): Torrey Craig, Jevon Carter
Key departure(s): Patrick Beverley
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Is this group still together beyond the trade deadline?
Craig and Carter are solid additions, and this team was better than its record last season. The Bulls (as noted above) struggled in close games, but had the point differential (seventh best in the East) of a team that was 45-37. The defense was strong all season and the offense got better (though it still ranked just 15th after the break) over time. Patrick Williams (one of 20 players who shot better than 41% on at least 250 3-point attempts) turns 22 in August and should keep getting better.
But (other than Lonzo Ball), the Bulls were pretty healthy last season, with their top five guys in minutes per game (not including Beverley) missing a total of just 15 games. DeMar DeRozan is a free agent next summer, Zach LaVine will always be a trade possibility, and Nikola Vucevic’s new contract ($60 million over three years) isn’t totally unreasonable or untradeable. The Bulls have been outscored by 20 points (0.7 per 100 possessions) in 2,848 total minutes with that trio on the floor over the last two regular seasons, and unless something changes, the expiration date could be in February of 2024.
2022-23 record: 45-37
OffRtg: 114.6 (12) DefRtg: 113.5 (16) NetRtg: +1.1 (14) Pace: 98.8 (23)
Key addition(s): N/A
Key departure(s): Their best shooters
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can Mikal Bridges become a playmaker?
Bridges was a terrific (and pretty efficient) scorer after arriving from Phoenix, averaging 26.1 points on a true shooting percentage of 60.7% in his 27 regular-season games with the Nets. But if he’s going to be the leading man in Brooklyn and draw the attention of opposing defenses, he’ll need to pass the ball once in a while. His assist rate (10.3 per 100 possessions) was the sixth lowest among 57 players with a usage rate of 25% or higher after the trade deadline. And with their new star unable to lift his teammates, the Nets ranked 23rd offensively after the deadline and had the second-worst offense in the first round of the playoffs.
The continued development of Claxton (still just 24 years old and a free agent next summer) will be key, though his drop in efficiency (true shooting percentage of 70.6% before the deadline, 65.9% after it) is more evidence that the Nets need playmaking. They do have a 27-year-old playmaker getting paid $78 million over the next two years, but at this point, they can’t count on Ben Simmons until he’s on the floor and proving that he can contribute consistently … and confidently.
2022-23 record: 41-41
OffRtg: 114.6 (13) DefRtg: 113.1 (11) NetRtg: +1.5 (12) Pace: 97.9 (25)
Key addition(s): Dennis Schroder
Key departure(s): Fred VanVleet
Coaching change: Nick Nurse out, Darko Rajakovic in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: What kind of player is Scottie Barnes?
The departure of VanVleet could certainly lead to the departure (via trade) of the 29-year-old Pascal Siakam and more of a long-term plan in Toronto. If the Raptors, under a rookie head coach and in a pretty competitive Eastern Conference, don’t get off to a strong start, trade talk will certainly escalate. Siakam is a free agent next summer and the Raps (who were 16-23 and in 12th place in early January last season) probably don’t want to lose another All-Star for nothing.
But what if Scottie Barnes makes the leap? The 2021-22 Rookie of the Year had a disappointing second season, seeing a big drop in efficiency and registering an effective field goal percentage of 38.5% on shots from outside the paint (second worst among 212 players with at least 200 attempts). But he made strides as a playmaker, and will likely need to make more with VanVleet in Houston. In addition to not knowing what Barnes’ ceiling is, we also don’t know exactly what kind of player he’ll be when he hits that ceiling. With a new coach and more opportunities to handle the ball, this could be the year when he really finds himself.
2022-23 record: 35-47
OffRtg: 113.8 (21) DefRtg: 117.1 (26) NetRtg: -3.3 (25) Pace: 101.7 (5)
Key addition(s): Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin, Jarace Walker
Key departure(s): Chris Duarte
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How valuable are the fifth and sixth spots in the rotation?
The Pacers outscored their opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions in 294 total minutes with Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Mathurin and Myles Turner on the floor together last season. That’s not a lot of minutes, of course. Mathurin started only 17 games and only one of those starts came with all three of the other guys in the lineup. Seven of the 17 came (at the end of the season) with none of the other three available. And opponents shot just 32.9% from 3-point range in those minutes, so that plus-11.7 per 100 is certainly inflated to a degree.
But in 2023-24, we can expect significantly more minutes for that quartet, along with improvement from the 21-year-old, who shot just 32.3% from beyond the arc and recorded assists on less than 8% of his possessions as a rookie. (Only Kelly Oubre Jr. and six bigs – including Turner – passed less often on at least 100 drives.) Now add a couple of more competent rotation pieces in Brown and Toppin, and the Pacers could be a lot more competitive than they were last season.
2022-23 record: 34-48
OffRtg: 111.3 (26) DefRtg: 113.7 (18) NetRtg: -2.3 (24) Pace: 99.7 (15)
Key addition(s): Anthony Black, Jett Howard, Joe Ingles
Key departure(s): Bol Bol
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Do any of the young guards break through?
After a 5-20 start to last season, the Magic were 29-28 with the league’s sixth-ranked defense. For the season, only 45% of their opponents’ shots, the league’s lowest opponent rate, came in the paint. They also ranked eighth in defensive rebounding percentage. The interior defense is there, and they obviously have two super-talented, 6-10 forwards. There were six players under the age of 22 who averaged at least 18 points last season, and the Magic have two of the six.
But there remains the question of whether they have a starting guard on the roster. Markelle Fultz had a career year, but isn’t the best complement to Banchero and Franz Wagner if he’s attempting just 1.5 3s per game. They can’t combine Cole Anthony’s offense and Jalen Suggs’ defense in one player, but maybe Suggs takes another step forward offensively in his third year. Their two new Lottery picks – Black and Howard – are two more guys who could, someday, be pieces that fill out a starting (or closing) lineup.
With Banchero having a full season under his belt, this team should, at worst, compete for a Play-In spot. And if there’s progress in the backcourt, the Magic just might end their three-year playoff drought.
2022-23 record: 35-47
OffRtg: 113.7 (22) DefRtg: 114.9 (21) NetRtg: -1.2 (23) Pace: 99.2 (20)
Key addition(s): Jordan Poole, Tyus Jones, Landry Shamet, Bilal Coulibaly
Key departure(s): Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Monte Morris
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can the whole be greater than the sum of the parts?
The Wizards feel a little like last season’s Jazz, a similarly motley crew that came together in the wake of two big trades and had a winning record through 53 games. Most of the starting lineup will be comprised of guys who (on a good team) would be best suited coming off the bench, but this team certainly isn’t devoid of talent. And how competitive it is will be determined by how much the group plays together and plays defense. (The Wiz have ranked no better than 20th defensively in the last five seasons.) This season could give us a good idea of how good of a coach Wes Unseld Jr. is.
Poole will certainly have the ball in his hands a lot, it will be interesting to see him outside the Warriors’ system, and we could have a fun battle between his turnovers and Jones’ lack thereof. There should be plenty of trade speculation regarding the veteran pieces that would be useful to a contender. Hopefully, both Coulibaly and Johnny Davis get a lot more playing time than Davis did as a rookie.
2022-23 record: 27-55
OffRtg: 108.4 (30) DefRtg: 114.7 (20) NetRtg: -6.3 (27) Pace: 101.5 (9)
Key addition(s): Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, new ownership
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How good is Miller?
LaMelo Ball got a five-year, max extension, but is there another young cornerstone on this roster? Miller is the top candidate and, given how good No. 2 pick Scoot Henderson has looked, will have the spotlight on him from Day 1. Playing alongside a passer like Ball will certainly be beneficial.
Better health from Ball (who played just 36 games last season) and the return of Bridges should help what was the league’s worst offense last season. The post-break defensive improvement was mostly about opponent 3-point shooting – 36.8% (23rd) before the break, 32.5% (first) after it – so there’s no certainty that it will carry over. But Mark Williams should be a better anchor on that end of the floor in his second season.
The Hornets have yet to reach a deal with restricted free agent P.J. Washington and it remains kind of amazing that a 20-points-per-game scorer (Kelly Oubre Jr.) remains an unrestricted free agent on July 31.
2022-23 record: 17-65
OffRtg: 109.9 (28) DefRtg: 117.8 (27) NetRtg: -7.9 (28) Pace: 99.3 (13)
Key addition(s): Ausur Thompson, Monte Morris, Joe Harris
Key departure(s): Cory Joseph
Coaching change: Dwane Casey out, Monty Williams in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How much do the kids improve?
The Pistons have (via a huge contract) brought in the coach who’s won the most games over the last two years. They’ve also added a couple of veterans who should raise the floor a bit. But the core of this team remains three guys – Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren – who’ve yet to play 82 games in the league. So this is a big summer in regard to development. Cunningham played just 283 minutes with Ivey (in which the Pistons were outscored by 8.5 points per 100 possessions) and just 79 with Duren last season.
Williams had some fun offensive sets in Phoenix, and he should get the two young guards working together. Both Cunningham and Ivey can attack the basket, but among the 195 players with at least 400 field goal attempts in the paint over the last two seasons they rank 188th and 192nd in field goal percentage there (48.2% and 46.3%). Detroit also ranked 28th in ball movement last season after ranking sixth in 2021-22.
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