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Offseason Power Rankings: Nuggets rank No. 1 in deep West – NBA.com
See where all 15 teams in the Western Conference rank after a busy offseason.
John Schuhmann
The Nuggets and Suns lead the offseason edition of our Western Conference Power Rankings.
There have been four different teams to represent the Western Conference in the Finals in the last four years. All four teams — the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets – are contenders to get there again in 2024.
But this may be the toughest Western Conference of the last several years to navigate. The East has actually had a better interconference record than the West in each of the last two seasons, but the West sure does look deeper this year.
Beyond the four conference champs of the last four years (who were also the four teams in the conference semifinals three months ago), we have …
That’s nine teams, so at least one of the above will not make the playoffs. And it could be more than one because the Oklahoma City Thunder were competitive (finishing 40-42) last season and have a slew of young players that will only get better. The Minnesota Timberwolves made the playoffs last season and have a 22-year-old, budding star. The Houston Rockets are coming from the bottom of the standings but added some vets to expedite their rise.
The Utah Jazz hung around in the playoff picture for far longer than anybody expected last season. The San Antonio Spurs added the most-hyped Draft pick of the last 20 years. And for the time being, the Portland Trail Blazers still have Damian Lillard.
Some of these teams won’t live up to expectations, but some will surpass them. Here’s how things stack up in the Western Conference with free agency in the rear-view mirror and Lillard still residing in Portland.
For these offseason rankings, we’re looking at each conference separately, having sorted through the East last week. All stats refer to the 2022-23 regular season unless otherwise noted.
Previous Power Rankings
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
The league averaged 114.1 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.8 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes last season.
NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, send him an e-mail or contact him via Twitter.
2022-23 record: 53-29
OffRtg: 116.8 (5) DefRtg: 113.5 (15) NetRtg: +3.3 (6) Pace: 98.7 (24)
Key addition(s): Justin Holiday
Key departure(s): Bruce Brown, Jeff Green
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can they keep their starters fresh?
As noted above, the Nuggets’ bench wasn’t so bad in the playoffs. But it took a hit with the departures of Brown and Green. Christian Braun and Zeke Nnaji should both see improvement, but the champs just aren’t as deep as they were two months ago. So it could be a challenge for head coach Michael Malone to manage minutes while trying to keep his team at the top of the Western Conference. Seeding matters and the Nuggets had the league’s third biggest home-road differential in winning percentage (34-7 vs. 19-22) and its second biggest differential in point differential per 100 possessions (plus-9.6 vs. minus-3.0) last season. Then they were 10-1 at home (and 6-3 on the road) in the playoffs.
The Nuggets still have Nikola Jokic, the best player in the world by consensus and one of the most durable stars in the league. They ranked 15th defensively in the regular season (second lowest for an eventual champ in the 27 years for which we have play-by-play data) but then allowed Miami to score just 100.0 points per 100 possessions over the last three games of the Finals, the best three-game stretch of defense they had all season. We can’t expect them to play at that level for 82 games, but we do know that they can defend when they need to.
2022-23 record: 45-37
OffRtg: 114.5 (14) DefRtg: 112.3 (7) NetRtg: +2.2 (9) Pace: 98.8 (22)
Key addition(s): Bradley Beal, Eric Gordon, Yuta Watanabe
Key departure(s): Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Torrey Craig, Landry Shamet
Coaching change: Monty Williams out, Frank Vogel in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can they defend?
There’s little doubt that, even though they don’t have a point guard, the Suns’ offense will be ridiculously good. Durant will be 35 on opening night but remains one of the two best offensive players on the planet. Beal has missed 72 games over the last two seasons but is still just 30 years old. And Booker is still just 26 (until Oct. 30). All three of those guys are coming off the most efficient (Durant) or second-most efficient seasons of their careers.
Frank Vogel’s last team had the league’s No. 1 defense the season after it won a championship, which says a lot about his ability to coach that end of the floor. Durant was a terrific defender when he played last season and Josh Okogie is still here to be a bulldog off the bench. But that may not be enough for this to be a better-than-average defense unless Beal and Eric Gordon shed some of the bad habits they’re bringing from non-competitive teams.
The ceiling is high, but every team needs to play hard, play together and play defense to reach its ceiling. And those latter two elements will be the things to watch in Phoenix.
2022-23 record: 43-39
OffRtg: 113.9 (19) DefRtg: 113.2 (12) NetRtg: +0.7 (16) Pace: 101.9 (4)
Key addition(s): Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince
Key departure(s): Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker IV
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can the supporting cast do it over a full season?
After returning to the Lakers at the trade deadline, D’Angelo Russell averaged 17.4 points on a true shooting percentage of 61.0%, with the Lakers outscoring their opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions in his 526 regular-season minutes. Rui Hachimura, meanwhile, saw the second-biggest jump in true shooting percentage from the regular season (55.6%) to the playoffs (66.8%) among 84 players with at least 50 postseason field goal attempts.
LeBron James (league leader in fast-break points per game) and Anthony Davis (league leader in second-chance points per game) will continue to be the straws that stir the drink. But last season was clear evidence that it’s the competency of the supporting cast that will determine how far the Lakers go. Vincent should be a great fit, but this roster is still a little short on shooting, one of eight teams with fewer than four guys (the Lakers have three) that shot the league average or better on at least 100 3-point attempts last season.
2022-23 record: 44-38
OffRtg: 115.1 (10) DefRtg: 113.4 (14) NetRtg: +1.7 (11) Pace: 102.5 (1)
Key addition(s): Chris Paul
Key departure(s): Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How does Paul fit in?
The 38-year-old is a pick-and-roll point guard who had 2,420 ball-screens set for him last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. The Warriors are not a heavy pick-and-roll team, having ranked 28th in total ball-screens set (4,598). They led the league in ball movement and ranked sixth in player movement.
Whether or not Paul is in the starting lineup, they can stagger his minutes with those of Curry. But they’ll still be on the floor together a decent amount and on some critical possessions. It will be fascinating to see how the offense works in those moments.
As noted above, the bigger difference between the 2021-22 champion Warriors and last season’s Warriors was on defense. The starting lineup allowed just 106.1 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among 22 lineups that played at least 300 minutes together but was missing Andrew Wiggins for a huge chunk of the season. And on the bench, swapping Poole for Gary Payton II will certainly help on that end of the floor. But three guys on this roster — Paul, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson — who’ve been selected to All-Defense teams are 38, 33 and 33 years old.
2022-23 record: 44-38
OffRtg: 114.0 (17) DefRtg: 113.6 (17) NetRtg: +0.5 (17) Pace: 98.8 (21)
Key addition(s): Kenyon Martin Jr.
Key departure(s): Eric Gordon
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How much can they really put into the regular season?
If you extract that 24-14 record with both George and Leonard over a full season, the Clippers would have finished second in the Western Conference. Now, it’s beyond unrealistic to believe that those guys can play 82 games, but the Clippers know that they need to play more. Overall, they were 9.9 points per 100 possessions better with Leonard on the floor (plus-6.1) than they were with him off the floor (minus-3.8), the 14th biggest differential among 252 players who played at least 1,000 minutes for a single team last season.
But how much harder can the Clips really push? George is 33 and was done for the season in late March, after playing 20 straight games for the first time since Nov. 2021. Leonard is 32 and has been injured at the end of each of the last three seasons. The team really has no choice but to be careful, also because it’s all-in for competing for a championship right now. Only the Sixers and Wolves got fewer minutes from rookies or second-year players than the Clippers (852) last season, and the only rookie LA has added was the 30th pick in the Draft.
2022-23 record: 48-34
OffRtg: 118.6 (1) DefRtg: 116.0 (24) NetRtg: +2.6 (8) Pace: 101.0 (12)
Key addition(s): Sasha Vezenkov
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can they climb out of the bottom 10 on defense?
The offense was a bigger issue in the playoffs when the Kings scored 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did in the regular season and were held to just 100 on 98 as they lost Game 7 at home. But given the personnel, the defense will remain the bigger question for the Kings, who were one of two teams — the Rockets were the other — that ranked in the bottom five in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint (60.1%, 26th) and opponent effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (52.7%, 26th). Given that the personnel hasn’t changed much, it’s not clear how they get better.
Health is the biggest question for every team, but it should be noted that the Kings’ top seven guys in regard to minutes per game missed a total of just 28 games last season. Their starting lineup played 900 minutes together, the most for any lineup in the last four seasons. They will likely need to rely more on guys 8-12 this year, so the additions of Vezenkov and Chris Duarte (or the choice not to add anybody else) could be under scrutiny if the depth doesn’t hold up.
2022-23 record: 51-31
OffRtg: 114.7 (11) DefRtg: 110.7 (3) NetRtg: +4.0 (4) Pace: 101.5 (8)
Key addition(s): Marcus Smart
Key departure(s): Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can they afford another hit to their depth?
A year after losing Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton a year ago, the Grizzlies have essentially swapped two of their top three guys in total minutes last season for Smart and whatever they can get out of Derrick Rose. Now, losing Brooks (154th in true shooting percentage among 155 players with at least 1,500 field goal attempts over the last three seasons) may be addition by subtraction. But this team is still a lot less deep than it was when it went 56-26 in 2020-21, especially when you consider that Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clarke could be out for all or most of the season.
The core is still young, though. Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. will be 24 years old on opening night, while Desmond Bane will be 25. There’s more youth coming off the bench, with Ziaire Williams still the most intriguing guy in that reserve group. The Grizz were the No. 2 seed again last season even though Morant, Bane, Jackson and Steven Adams played in just 12 games together.
2022-23 record: 38-44
OffRtg: 115.9 (6) DefRtg: 116.1 (25) NetRtg: -0.2 (20) Pace: 97.2 (28)
Key addition(s): Grant Williams, Seth Curry
Key departure(s): Reggie Bullock
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can they defend again?
With Irving and Luka Doncic, the Mavs’ offense should be alright. They scored 119.2 points per 100 possessions in 444 total minutes with the two stars on the floor together last season, and they can have one of the two on the floor at all times. Though they were 5-11 with both in uniform, they actually outscored their opponents by nine points over those 16 games, with all 11 losses having been within five points in the last five minutes. And there are few better offensive complements to two of the best one-on-one players in the world than Curry, one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history.
But Doncic, Irving and Curry are all defensive liabilities to a certain degree. In Jason Kidd’s first season as Mavs head coach, his team had the league’s seventh-ranked defense and was the No. 4 seed in the West. And last season, the Mavs saw the second-biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions, allowing 116.1 and ranking 25th defensively.
Williams, along with better health for Maxi Kleber, should help on that end of the floor. But point-of-attack defense will be critical, and the Mavs can’t really contend if they don’t climb out of the bottom 10 defensively.
2022-23 record: 42-40
OffRtg: 113.8 (20) DefRtg: 112.0 (6) NetRtg: +1.9 (10) Pace: 99.6 (16)
Key addition(s): N/A
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How good is Trey Murphy III?
Williamson’s health is obviously the big variable. But the continued development of Murphy can raise the Pelicans’ ceiling. Huge jumps in his per-game numbers in his second season came with a huge jump in efficiency, and only Julius Randle scored more points on spot-up possessions, according to Synergy tracking. We know Murphy can shoot off the catch and attack a close-out (64.8% shooting in the paint is strong). Even without Williamson, he doesn’t need to handle the ball much. But if he can expand his game even more, the Pels will really have something in the 23-year-old.
The defensive improvement was mostly about opponent 3-point shooting: 33.9% (first) last season vs. 36.5% (26th) in 2021-22. And while that’s partially a result of a lower percentage of their opponents’ 3s being wide open (51% vs. 56%), the Pels can’t count on their opponents shooting that much worse than the league average (36.1%) again.
2022-23 record: 42-40
OffRtg: 113.3 (23) DefRtg: 113.1 (10) NetRtg: +0.2 (18) Pace: 101.6 (7)
Key addition(s): Shake Milton
Key departure(s): Taurean Prince
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How large of a sample size do we need to see?
The Wolves outscored their opponents by 0.6 points per 100 possessions in 529 total minutes with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert on the floor together last season. That’s not bad, but it’s not good, the offense was bad (106.2 scored per 100) in those minutes, and the defense was terrible in the playoffs when the two bigs were both on the floor.
Giving it another shot is worthwhile, especially because Anthony Edwards’ development will make this team better no matter who’s on the frontline. But with Naz Reid re-signed to a three-year, $42-million deal, three of the Wolves’ five highest-paid players are centers who can’t necessarily play together. Minnesota was outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions in 284 total minutes with Reid on the floor with either Gobert or Towns last season. At some point, the Wolves will have to part ways with one of these guys and hopefully, better health gives them more data to evaluate if they can play together and/or which one’s the better fit alongside their franchise player.
2022-23 record: 40-42
OffRtg: 114.2 (16) DefRtg: 113.2 (13) NetRtg: +1.0 (15) Pace: 101.9 (3)
Key addition(s): Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Vasilije Micic
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Who’s going to play and who isn’t?
The Thunder have too many players, and between now and opening night, they’ll need to trade or waive a couple of useful guys. Then there will be some better players (or some that need to play for development) that aren’t in the rotation from night to night. What happens with Aleksej Pokusevski going forward will be interesting and might tell us a lot about how ready the Thunder are to win.
But if you add Holmgren and Wallace to the five starters from last year (minus-2.1 points per 100 possessions in 289 total minutes together), that’s a core group of seven guys that should be the focus. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is already a star and there’s a ton of potential in Holmgren, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams. The latter was just the second rookie in the 44 years of the 3-point line (32-year-old Arvydas Sabonis was the first) to shoot 55% or better on at least 500 2-point attempts and 35% or better on at least 100 3-point attempts.
2022-23 record: 37-45
OffRtg: 115.3 (9) DefRtg: 116.0 (23) NetRtg: -0.7 (22) Pace: 101.0 (11)
Key addition(s): John Collins, Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: What do they have in the backcourt?
The Jazz will surely play Markkanen, Collins and Walker Kessler together. They outscored their opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions in 454 minutes with Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk and Kessler on the floor together last season, and Collins will be a defensive upgrade as part of that trio.
That’s a lot of talent up front, but the guard positions are more interesting. Talen Horton-Tucker put up good numbers (18.2, 5.1 and 6.0) as the starting point guard after the All-Star break last season, and the Jazz have a couple of vets — Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton — who could start at the two (and are both under contract for three more years). But those guys are also best suited to come off the bench and the next generation — George and Ochai Agbaji — is here and needs to play. Agbaji was super fun to watch as a rookie, with good shooting in the paint (55.6%) for a rookie guard and a very good mark (44-for-96, 45.8%) on corner 3s.
2022-23 record: 22-60
OffRtg: 110.5 (27) DefRtg: 118.6 (29) NetRtg: -8.1 (29) Pace: 99.7 (14)
Key addition(s): Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, Amen Thompson
Key departure(s): Kenyon Martin Jr.
Coaching change: Stephen Silas out, Ime Udoka in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Are the young guys ready to win?
The Rockets got 61% of their 2022-23 minutes, the league’s highest rate by a healthy margin, from rookies (24%, highest) or second-year players (38%, also highest). That rate should drop dramatically, not only because Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have graduated to their third season, but also because they’ve added vets who will play a lot.
VanVleet, Brooks and Udoka will improve the defense themselves, but Green and Sengun also need to get better on that end of the floor. Their readiness and willingness to defend may go a long way in determining how far the Rockets climb up the standings because offense may still be a struggle. VanVleet will have them more organized and Udoka will hopefully have them more disciplined, but both of the new perimeter guys are inefficient scorers. Among 155 players with at least 1,500 field goal attempts over the last three seasons, VanVleet (54.3%) and Brooks (50.7%) rank 132nd and 154th in true shooting percentage.
2022-23 record: 33-49
OffRtg: 114.0 (18) DefRtg: 118.0 (28) NetRtg: -4.0 (26) Pace: 99.3 (17)
Key addition(s): Scoot Henderson
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: What do they get for Lillard?
The Blazers handed out two contracts — $160 million to Jerami Grant and $33 million to Matisse Thybulle — that would be for a team looking to win now. But this team isn’t going to win now if it trades Lillard. Heck, this team is 39-48 with Lillard in the lineup over the last two seasons.
General manager Joe Cronin can only trade Lillard once, so he has to get it right. And because Lillard is under contract for the next four years, there certainly isn’t any rush. The good news is that the Blazers have a couple of young players — Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe — who could be pretty special. And when they add more young pieces and future picks, they’ll be set up pretty well for five years down the line. (Their best picks for the next few years will likely be their own.)
2022-23 record: 22-60
OffRtg: 109.7 (29) DefRtg: 119.6 (30) NetRtg: -9.9 (30) Pace: 102.1 (2)
Key addition(s): Victor Wembanyama, Cedi Osman, Cameron Payne, Reggie Bullock
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How much does Wembanyama play?
The No. 1 pick has been durable thus far, but the NBA presents a new level of physicality and a schedule with almost twice as many games as he played last season. And the Spurs will obviously want to be careful with their No. 1 asset. Jeremy Sochan was the No. 9 pick last year, didn’t seem to have a definitive injury, and played in only 11 of the team’s last 30 games with knee soreness.
The Spurs should be better, but it would be surprising to see them compete for a Play-In spot. Wembanyama is still just 19 years old and isn’t the only San Antonio big who’s lacking bulk. And while they were dealing with absences last season, the Spurs were also outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions in 439 total minutes with Tre Jones, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson on the floor.
See where all 15 teams in the Eastern Conference rank after a busy offseason.
These players could have an immediate impact on their new squads for the upcoming season.
The Nuggets, Pelicans, Mavs, Clippers and Rockets are set to compete in West Group B during the In-Season Tournament.
The Bucks, Knicks, Heat, Wizards and Hornets are set to compete in East Group B during the In-Season Tournament.
See where all 15 teams in the Eastern Conference rank after a busy offseason.
These players could have an immediate impact on their new squads for the upcoming season.
The Nuggets, Pelicans, Mavs, Clippers and Rockets are set to compete in West Group B during the In-Season Tournament.
The Bucks, Knicks, Heat, Wizards and Hornets are set to compete in East Group B during the In-Season Tournament.
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