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Predicting the Biggest Overpays In 2023 NBA Free Agency – Bleacher Report
The next batch of NBA free agents are about to get paid.
At least a few will ink deals their play can’t justify.
It’s not because they are bad players—duh, these are NBA players—but the stars just won’t align for them to live up to their new pay rates.
Some have started to decline but will still get bonkers bucks based on prior production. Some simply won’t log enough floor time. A few will benefit from delivering on the playoff stage—and establishing inflated expectations of their talent level.
For reasons we’ll explain as we go, the following five hoopers-for-hire are about to become the Association’s next overpays.
All arrows point toward Rui Hachimura fetching a fat paycheck this summer.
His midseason move from the Washington Wizards to the Los Angeles Lakers put him in a marquee market, and he looked great under the playoff spotlight. He’s also a recent enough top-10 pick (No. 9 in 2019) for front offices to remember the reasons he was drafted so high. And at 25 years old, he’s just young enough to convince clubs he may still offer some untapped potential.
If executives put a ton of stock into his postseason performance—when he averaged 12.2 points on 55.7/48.7/88.2 shooting—that’ll be great news for his bank account. Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer relayed in May that Hachimura initially sought an extension from Washington near “a four-year, $60 million structure,” but that value now “seems like the floor” for his next deal.
Maybe that’s not a shocking amount in the NBA economy, but the evidence suggesting he’s a $15-million-plus-per-year kind of player is either limited or nonexistent.
Functionally, he’s a scoring specialist who typically operates inside the arc. His three-point shooting obviously perked up in the playoffs, but even then he only had 19 treys in 16 games. He can have moments on defense—he limited two-time MVP Nikola Jokić to 31 points on 25 shots this postseason—but he can get sleepy off the ball and has trouble at the point of attack on pick-and-rolls. He’s also basically broke even in terms of assists (career 1.3 per game) and turnovers (1.0).
Hachimura looks like a helpful, change-of-pace reserve whose impact often hinges on his mid-range touch. Those are fine players to have in the supporting cast, but not ones you want to pay the kind of coin he seems destined to collect.
James Harden has a max-contract resume. There’s no denying that. He’s a 10-time All-Star, a seven-time All-NBA honoree (six times on the first team), a three-time scoring champ, a two-time assists leader and a former MVP. His Hall of Fame spot has long been secured.
But his next contract—which could span four years and cost north of $200 million if he gets the max—isn’t paying for that. Or it shouldn’t be, at least.
His salary should reflect his current form, and while he’s still good, greatness might be forever behind him. His scoring output has declined each of the past three seasons, landing at 21 per night this season—the lowest it’s been since 2011-12. His 6.2 free-throw attempts were also his fewest in this time span, and the percentage of his shots taken within three feet of the basket was the smallest of his career (16.5, had never dipped below 23 before).
The 33-year-old just doesn’t have the same zip off the dribble anymore, so he can’t get all the way to the cup or the foul line. Go back to 2019-20, his final full season with the Houston Rockets, and he turned 17.6 drives per night into 12.4 points and 4.2 free-throw attempts per game. This season, he was down to 7.4 points and 2.7 free throws on 13.5 drives.
Harden still makes an impact with his shooting and table-setting, but that only goes so far. While he’s never been the most reliable defender and is finding it increasingly difficult to stay on the court (less than 60 appearances two of the past three seasons), his offensive gifts alone are no longer enough to command top dollar.
“He can get numbers; he can help a team,” an NBA executive told Heavy.com’s Steve Bulpett. “But he’s not a max player anymore. You can’t justify it.”
Someone might try, though. The Philadelphia 76ers have no obvious means to replace Harden if he walks, so they might feel compelled to give him what he wants. If not, the Houston Rockets are (bizarrely) often linked to him, and the Phoenix Suns might have interest, too.
Had Forrest Gump taken up life as an NBA analyst, he would have inevitably compared mercurial point guard Kyrie Irving to that proverbial box of chocolates. You truly never know what you’re going to get out of Uncle Drew.
At times, it will be nothing short of basketball brilliance. His combination of handles, shot-making and scoring versatility is nearly unrivaled. But he just isn’t always around to show it, since he might opt to take a two-week sabbatical in the middle of a season or wind up suspended for promoting an antisemitic film on social media.
Talent-wise, the eight-time All-Star is easily worth the max. But how can anyone give that kind of money to a player they can’t always count on to play?
In 12 NBA seasons, Irving has cleared the 70-game mark just three times. The most recent was 2016-17. In the past four campaigns, he has totaled only 163 games. That’s 40.8 contests per season—or less than half of the scheduled 82 tilts.
He’s been unavailable so often you might think he’d have to settle for a prove-it pact this offseason. Turns out, though, he might still have max money coming his way and could have secured the bag before his trade to the Dallas Mavericks was even finalized.
“I hear they had a handshake deal before the trade [with the Brooklyn Nets],” one source told B/R’s Eric Pincus. “And Kyrie wouldn’t have said yes to anything less than the max.”
A five-year max could get Irving north of $272 million. A four-year max would net him roughly $210 million. Those are staggering numbers for a 31-year-old who has missed more games than he’s played the past four seasons.
If timing is as important to free agents as location is to those in the real-estate world, then the 2022-23 season was Kristaps Porziņģis’ beachfront estate.
This was perhaps the closest he’d ever come to aligning the idea of him—a 7’3″, shot-blocking, three-point bombing unicorn—with his on-court reality. Once the campaign closed, he’d set a new personal-best with 23.2 points per game to go along with 2.1 triples (on 38.5 percent shooting) and 1.5 blocks.
The 27-year-old was a full-fledged difference-maker—Washington fared 5.6 points better per 100 possessions with him than without—in part because he was simply on the hardwood often enough to make a difference. His 65 games and 2,120 minutes were both his highest marks since 2016-17.
If the Wizards (or any other suitor) could bank on that workload repeating, then he could be worth a substantial investment. Back in December, HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto reported Porziņģis could be in line to collect an annual salary in the $30 million range. That price tag may have climbed since given his continued on-court contributions.
Of course, this is where some may have noted that 65 games really aren’t that much for a player’s five-year high. (He missed the entire 2018-19 season while recovering from a torn ACL.) Even with the (relatively) extended run this season, he’s still averaging just 52.8 outings per season during this stretch.
His injury history is lengthy and loaded with potential pitfalls. Repeat run-ins with the injury bug are causes for concern with anyone, but you worry even more when they’re connected to a 7’3″ big whose sheer size puts some extra stress on his joints.
It’s possible his previous health problems will convince suitors to stay away, but again, that idea of what his skill set could yield might be too enticing for teams to pass up. His next contract should include a “buyer beware” stamp, but that won’t safeguard anyone from making a nine-figure misstep.
You know those gritty, overlooked and underpaid Miami Heat role players who have been so pivotal to the team’s postseason success? Well, they won’t be overlooked or underpaid much longer.
Two in particular, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, are about to enter unrestricted free agency and blow up their bank accounts shortly thereafter. One front-office executive told Darren Rovell of The Action Network each could wind up with a salary “in the $15 million-a-year range.”
While that could make both candidates to become overpaid, Strus is the one sounding more alarm sirens. Vincent could be a better table-setter, sure, but his shot-making and tenacious defense are both bankable commodities.
Strus, meanwhile, mostly just has an outside shot to sell, and it’s far less reliable than that projected pay rate would lead you to believe.
His form looks pure, and he can heat up in a hurry, but he was also just a 35 percent shooter from distance this season. That’s a tick below league-average, which is hardly what you want to see from someone who’s essentially a shooting specialist. He hustles and competes defensively, but he isn’t an elite athlete nor much of an off-the-dribble creator.
If teams are paying him primarily for his shooting, they should be cautious of investing too much in a specialist. Modern teams might prioritize shooting now more than ever, but there haven’t exactly been great returns on the big deals given to Dāvis Bertāns or Strus’ teammate, Duncan Robinson. And both of those players, by the way, showed more promise from the perimeter than Strus has.
If the hope is Strus can grow his game, best of luck with that. This is technically only his second season as a rotation regular, but he’s already 27 years old. Expecting him to add and develop new skills on the fly would be incredibly optimistic.
While a lot of free-agency spending involves gambling on growth, you don’t want to spend $15 million annually on a hope.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.