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Big 12 basketball tiers, post-realignment: Can Houston, Arizona end Kansas' reign of dominance? – 247Sports
The Big 12 as we know it died when Texas and Oklahoma bounced for the SEC, but it’s revived with a vengeance. Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF have joined the league for the 2023-24 season. Colorado is on the way. Next up are Arizona, Arizona State and Utah. The Big 12 has been college basketball’s premier conference for a decade, and the recent moves only double-down on its bet on hoops. Adding ballyhooed basketball programs like Arizona and Houston increases the Big 12’s staying power in the best postseason tournament college athletics has to offer.
A Big 12 program has won the National Championship in two of the last three years (Baylor in 2021, Kansas in 2022), but the strength of the league has been its depth. Will the newcomers drag it down? Can Houston and Arizona maintain dominance despite a much-harder regular-season schedule? And how do the members of the “old Big 12” stack up to the new faces?
It’s complicated.
We split the new-look Big 12 into four separate tiers on the state of the basketball program right now and how it’s trending moving forward:
These factors were weighed:
Let’s dive in.
TIER 1: ALPHA
Kansas stands alone atop the new-look Big 12. Kansas has deep Name, Image and Likeness resources that have been poured into the basketball program. It has helped Kansas dominate the transfer portal, attract five-star talent and retain key veterans. Kansas has earned a share of the Big 12 crown in 19 of the past 22 seasons, and despite a recent health scare, Bill Self is hungry for more. Kansas hasn’t missed the NCAA Tournament since 1988-89 and has two National Championships since 2008. Kansas has the best coach, the top basketball facilities and a load of history. The Big 12 might be changing, but Kansas’ reign atop the basketball standings isn’t.
TIER 2: REAL CONTENDER
Baylor isn’t super glitzy or glamorous, but Scott Drew is one of the top coaches in the sport. He has built the program into one of college basketball’s powerhouses. Taking Baylor from a doormat to a National Champion is incredibly impressive. Drew has helped Baylor become a landing spot for five-star talent every single year. It might not have the same NIL resources as other programs, but Baylor is still a real factor in the transfer portal. Baylor has been an NCAA Tournament team all but once in the last decade. Baylor is slated to regularly give Kansas a furious run for the Big 12 title for years to come.
TIER 2: REAL CONTENDER
Arizona basketball is coming to the Big 12 with championship aspirations. It’s all completely warranted. Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd is a terrific recruiter with strong overseas ties. Arizona is one of the top international-recruiting programs in the country, but it’s flexed its muscles in the transfer portal routinely. Arizona’s transfer portal haul of Caleb Love, Jaden Bradley and Keshad Johnson is the envy of many rival coaching staffs. Arizona has resources, the X’s and O’s, the staff and the history to become a basketball powerhouse in the Big 12. A Kansas-Arizona hardwood rivalry could end up being vicious.
TIER 2: REAL CONTENDER
Kelvin Sampson only knows winning. It’s not surprising that the veteran coach has turned Houston into one of college basketball’s dominant programs. Houston isn’t just making the Big Dance; it’s zooming through brackets. The Cougars have advanced to the second weekend in four-straight NCAA Tournaments. Houston is armed with a NIL collective that helped the program reel in difference-makers like LJ Cryer and Damian Dunn in the 2023 transfer portal cycle. Sampson and his staff have recruited, developed and game-planned at an elite level. New conference, same Houston. Kansas’ quest to dominate the Big 12 for the next decade is in serious peril if Sampson has anything to say about it.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
West Virginia racking up dubs in the NCAA Tournament has been a staple of the last two decades. West Virginia advanced to back-to-back Sweet 16s under John Beilein in 2005 and 2006. Five more Sweet 16s followed after Bob Huggins took over ahead of the 2007-08 season. West Virginia’s new NIL collective, Country Roads Trust, flexed its muscles repeatedly in the 2023 transfer portal cycle, and West Virginia is well-positioned to be a haven for some of the top transfers in the sport moving forward.
But West Virginia is still in turmoil after a turbulent end to Huggins’ Hall of Fame career. WVU is one of the top jobs in the sport. Next offseason’s hire could be a monumental inflection point for the direction of the program.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
Texas Tech has a massive homecourt advantage, and a rabid fanbase itching to win big again. Poaching North Texas coach Grant McCasland could end up being a catalyst-like move that sends Texas Tech back up to the top of the Big 12 after an extra-frustrating 5-13 showing in conference play last season. Texas Tech has deep pockets. McCasland’s staff is excellent. The floor of the program is very high, and a National Title game showing in 2019 is proof of how high the ceiling can be.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
Kansas State wants to be competitive every single season in basketball, and if Jerome Tang stays around, it can be. Bruce Weber led the program to an improbable Elite Eight appearance in 2019, but Kansas State had lost its flair toward the end of the Weber era. Tang brought it back. The long-time Baylor assistant has quickly become the face of the program, and he’s crushed it in the transfer portal for two straight cycles. Kansas State has to be taken seriously on the recruiting trail even if it’s not mentioned as one of the top-of-the-line NIL bidders. Kansas State will remain fully relevant as long as Tang’s transfer portal hauls don’t dip. If Year 1 is any indication, Tang will get the most out of his roster.
History is on Tang’s side. Kansas State has had pockets of excellence for decades.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
Winning at TCU is no easy task, but Jamie Dixon has led the Frogs to the NCAA Tournament in each of the past two seasons for the first time in school history. Dixon has changed the expectations of what TCU basketball is capable of accomplishing. TCU doesn’t have resources that would blow you away, but Dixon has a fertile recruiting ground in his backyard. TCU has been an attractive destination for touted transfers. TCU will welcome in top-10 transfer Jameer Nelson Jr. to replace Mike Miles in 2023-24. Dixon wins around the margins, and TCU will be relevant as long as he’s in charge.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
T.J. Otzelberger has instantly breathed life back into the Iowa State program. The Cyclones have made the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two years thanks to Otzelberger’s willingness to attack the transfer portal. Iowa State parlayed that into one of the best recruiting classes in recent history. Five-star Omaha Biliew and top-35 recruit Milan Momcilovic bought into Otzelberger’s vision. If the high-level recruiting at the high school ranks continues and Iowa State’s regular mining of smart transfers persists, the Cyclones’ floor remains very high. Otzelberger has built Iowa State to have multiple bites at the apple for the foreseeable future.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
Oklahoma State’s program has struggled to get to a different gear, partially due to an out-of-touch, cruel postseason ban. Mike Boynton has made waves on the recruiting trail throughout his career. Cade Cunningham was a monster get. The Cowboys have a top-15 recruiting class in 2023, but it hasn’t been a big player for some of the top transfers in the country. Oklahoma State will continue to be a competitive, pesty, bubble team, but there are higher aspirations. It only has one winning season in Big 12 play since 2013-14. Can Oklahoma State dominate the Big 12 newbies and assert itself as a middle-of-the-pack program? We’re about to find out.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
Tad Boyle is a veteran, experienced coach who has steered Colorado to 12 winning seasons in his 13-year run. The canceled NCAA Tournament in 2020 looms large for the program because McKinley Wright, Tyler Bey and Evan Battey were capable of uncorking a run. Colorado has won just two NCAA Tournament games under Boyle, but his recent player-retention capabilities could help change that. Colorado also landed five-star freshman Cody Williams who is the highest-rated Colorado hoops signee ever. The Buffs will be steady and improve the depth of the Big 12. Can it become a yearly contender? It did not win the so-so Pac-12, it’s hard to predict it’ll run the terrific Big 12, but it’s not at the bottom of the barrel in the league. You don’t have to squint to visualize Colorado being in the thick of a Big 12 race in February.
TIER 3: MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH UPSIDE
Wes Miller has Cincinnati basketball’s arrow pointing up. Can he restore the program to the Mick Cronin-Bob Huggins levels? That remains to be seen. Cincinnati has missed each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, but it wasn’t that long ago that Cincinnati was a Big Dance regular. Miller has ramped up Cincinnati’s recruiting reach, and the move to the Big 12 should help the program reach national relevance relatively quickly. Cincinnati cares deeply about basketball success. It has resources to make money moves, and Cincinnati has quietly recruited the transfer portal very well under Miller. The strength of schedule will ramp up for Cincinnati in the Big 12, but that’s a good thing.
TIER 4: WORK TO DO
The glory days of Rick Majerus and Utah basketball are all but a distant memory now. The Utes have made the Big Dance just three times since 2005. Craig Smith is out to change that. Getting big man Branden Carlson back for a fifth season should certainly help Utah become more competitive in 2023-24, but longterm, there’s still work to be done. Utah has not been able to reel in any of the best players in the transfer portal in each of the last two cycles. Will Utah’s recruiting be able to level up in the Big 12? That’s a big unanswered question that needs to be solved if Utah wants to compete at the upper echelon of its new league.
TIER 4: WORK TO DO
Twelve NCAA Tournament appearances in the last 23 years speak for themselves. BYU has cranked out 20-win seasons for the last two decades, but it’s still a big enigma on just how good the program can be in the rough-and-tumble Big 12. Mark Pope is a good coach who has undoubtedly been prepping his roster for this pivot. BYU has landed impactful transfers who have played a lot of college basketball. BYU has 10 scholarship upperclassmen on the roster right now, so it’s old and deep. But the high-end talent is still a question. The resources at BYU aren’t quite the same at some of its new Big 12 counterparts, but its home-court advantage will play right away. BYU could easily vault into Tier II if the recruiting spikes. But there are some hurdles to clear at BYU that other conference foes just don’t have.
TIER 4: WORK TO DO
Johnny Dawkins has proved you can build a winner at UCF, but the program has dipped after making the Round of 32 and nearly knocking off Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Duke in 2019. UCF has finished outside the top-100 on KenPom in three of the last four seasons. The American Athletic Conference was begging for another team to rise up and challenge Houston or Memphis, but UCF did not oblige.
The competition level is about to spike, and UCF is still hitting the transfer portal hard trying to put together a team with enough weapons to be somewhat competitive. Taylor Hendricks’ rapid rise from a largely unknown into a lottery pick signals Dawkins’ strength as a talent evaluator and his player-development program. It also shows the wealth of talent that is available for UCF to get an up-close view of in Florida. But UCF’s path to relevance in the Big 12 is likely centered around dominating in the transfer portal every single cycle.
TIER 4: WORK TO DO
Arizona State is not an easy place to win big at. Bobby Hurley has somehow cobbled together three NCAA Tournament appearances in his first eight seasons, and he could’ve had a fourth if the Big Dance hadn’t been canceled due to COVID-19 in 2020. Mass renovation has been a staple of Hurley’s roster construction lately, but he’s brought in some talented young pieces via the portal or the high school recruiting crops. Will extra Big 12 money be funneled into improving Arizona State’s facilities? Arizona State will be competent and competitive in the Big 12 with Hurley at the helm, but it needs more resources to be a yearly contender.
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