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Predicting the NBA's Worst Contracts 3 Years From Now – Bleacher Report
Three years might as well be a lifetime in the NBA.
The average playing career doesn’t span much longer, so projecting anything that far forward is, at best, an inexact science.
Still, there are a few bloated deals on the books that seem highly unlikely to appear as good values in three years’ time. Some don’t look great already. Others will have a tough time aging, as players simultaneously push past their primes while collecting the biggest paychecks of their careers.
To get a better grasp of what can go wrong, we’ll spotlight the five current contracts likely to look worst entering the 2026-27 season and rank them based on everything from age and talent to injury history and remaining contract terms.
While bad deals will be signed between now and then, we’ll restrict the conversation to only ones that have already been inked, so we can evaluate them by their actual dollar value and not a guesstimated amount.
Age as of 2026-27: 29
Remaining Contract: Three years, $184.9 million
Brown’s recent extension, the NBA’s richest contract to date, should span the entirety of his prime. On the back end, though, it could get a little rough, particularly if he never makes the ball-handling and playmaking improvements he’d need to crack the league’s top 10.
He is a really good player, but he is just flawed enough that greatness has eluded him thus far. Even if he clears that threshold at some point, he could be entering the early stages of his decline by the 2026-27 campaign. If his stats start to dip, though, his salary will keep climbing regardless.
His average salary for the final three seasons of his pact sits north of $61 million. That kind of coin should only be attached to a no-brainer superstar. Brown just hasn’t hit that tier. This past season, he tied for only 119th in Overall RAPTOR, despite matching or exceeding his career marks in points (26.6), rebounds (6.9) and assists (3.5).
So, he probably needs to elevate his game in order to justify his pay rate. Yet, even maintaining his present level could be tricky as he enters his 30s for the final two seasons of his new deal. Boston may not feel buyer’s remorse, but the two-way swingman could still rank among the league’s most overpaid players in three years.
Age as of 2026-27: 30
Remaining Contract: Two years, $119.3 million (player option on final season)
Talent-wise, Towns seems built to age well, since he has always leaned much heavier on skill than athleticism. But his standing around the Association has already taken a hit, and he’s been trending down long enough to worry this could continue indefinitely.
Ahead of the 2017-18 season—his first All-Star campaign—he was the most popular pick among general managers surveyed in terms of whom they’d like to build around. Hold that same discussion now, and he wouldn’t even get a mention. Three years from now, he’d be so far removed from the conversation that just bringing him up would get you laughed out of the room.
Even at his best, his offense-leaning (offense-only?) game had a limited impact on winning. Landing in Minnesota probably didn’t help, but it’s still jarring that his first eight NBA seasons have basically put a goose egg in the team success column. The Timberwolves have managed just three playoff trips and zero postseason series wins throughout his tenure.
He is tricky to build around, since he doesn’t protect the paint and struggles defending in space. He has also increasingly dealt with availability issues, having played 50 or fewer games in three of the past four seasons and 35 or less in half of them.
Towns is a great shooter, a good scorer and an above-average passer. That’s a helpful combination to have, but not one you’d like to spend nearly $60 million per season for.
The contract already looks iffy at best, and if the aging process saps him of some of his offensive skills or expands upon his defensive limitations (or, gulp, does both), it will only become a bigger strain on the books.
Age as of 2026-27: 33
Remaining Contract: One year, $57.1 million (player option, no-trade clause)
The thought of paying Beal $57.1 million right now sounds ludicrous. But coughing up that much change for his age-33 season might meet the legal standard of cruel and unusual punishment.
His contract looked comically bad before the ink even had a chance to dry. Giving him a no-trade clause—the only one in the entire league—was a front-office failing of the highest degree. It’s incredibly telling that the Washington Wizards didn’t even keep him for a full calendar year after signing him to what was initially a five-year, $251 million dollar deal. And they basically traded him away for only salary relief and some second-round picks.
Hoops historians will have a hard time remembering how he ever secured this contract. He’s a three-time All-Star with a single All-NBA selection on his resume. He’s had a few explosive scoring seasons from a volume perspective, but he’s usually been more of a good scorer with moderate efficiency, a capable secondary playmaker and a leaky defender.
If that’s the book on Beal now, how on earth will it read in three years? He has already encountered a ton of injury issues—51.8 games a year over the past four seasons—and it sure seems like his decline is underway. Among the 166 players to log at least 3,000 minutes over the last two seasons, he ranks 132nd in win shares per 48 minutes.
His off-the-dribble game could be waning three years from now, and then what would he have left? Solid-not-spectacular outside shooting is nice, but it surely isn’t worth such a massive price. The fact that this salary will be expiring only softens the blow so much. Teams still wouldn’t want to take it on, and even if they did, he’ll inexplicably have the power to veto any trade.
Age as of 2026-27: 36
Remaining Contract: One year, $63.2 million (player option)
It’s possible the Miami Heat are the only team in the Lillard sweepstakes. It’s also possible the reasons for that go beyond his desire to land in South Beach.
He might be a tremendous talent, but he’s also a 33-year-old with a colossal amount of cash left on his deal. On top of that, he has played just 87 games over the past two campaigns combined, and he last reached the 70-game mark in 2018-19.
So, yeah, color us incredibly skeptical that he’ll be worth anywhere near $63.2 million in his age-36 season.
Entering the 2022-23 campaign, FiveThirtyEight labeled Lillard as a “borderline All-Star” with a five-year market value of $94.3 million. He’ll pocket nearly 70 percent of that amount for the 2026-27 season alone.
The good news is, outside of the games missed, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down statistically. The bad news is that feels almost certain to happen over the next three seasons, and things could dovetail in a hurry, because that’s how declines often occur. His shooting and vision might age well, but if he loses some athleticism and it takes his dribble-dive game with it, he just won’t be close to the same level of dynamic player.
If not for the fact that his salary will at least be expiring by then, it might be an easy choice for the No. 1 spot.
Age as of 2026-27: 32
Remaining Contract: Two years, $70.6 million (player option on final season)
Portland might have set a new record for the fastest time between signing a contract and feeling buyer’s remorse.
As soon as the free-agent market opened on June 30, the Blazers moved quickly to ink Grant to a five-year, $160 million deal. It was an obvious attempt to appease Damian Lillard, but it didn’t work. The longtime franchise face requested a trade the following day.
Portland stood by its commitment to Grant anyway, but it really had no other choice. It has never been a destination spot for free agents, and it would have torpedoed its chances at future pursuits if it pulled the rug out from beneath one of its own players.
Even still, the Blazers may have given it at least a little thought, since it looks like an overpay now and won’t grow more favorable with time. Strip away the athleticism he’ll likely lose to time, and he won’t have much left to offer. Defensive versatility is one of his biggest selling points, but he’ll lose much of that flexibility when he doesn’t have the lateral quickness to keep in front of guards anymore.
His offense isn’t exactly built to age gracefully either. He’s a so-so shooter (career 35.8 percent from three) and not a playmaker (career 1.5 assists against 1.2 turnovers). He is a limited creator off the bounce—34th percentile on isolation plays this past season—and that’s without accounting for any slowing of his first step over the next three seasons.
Even with the salary cap continuing to climb, it’s impossible to imagine anyone wanting to spend $70.6 million on Grant’s ages 32 and 33 seasons.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.