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Realistic expectations for all 41 Big Ten basketball transfers – 247Sports
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Retention was a big buzzword in Big Ten circles throughout the entire 2023 transfer portal cycle. Keeping stars was more important for some teams than dipping into the portal for a big-name star. Maryland keeping Jahmir Young, Donta Scott and Julian Reese for another year was enormous. Zach Edey chose to return to Purdue. Illinois held onto both Terrence Shannon Jr. and Coleman Hawkins. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo did everything possible to keep Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard, Malik Hall and Jaden Akins around after a Sweet 16 run. Wisconsin returned its entire starting lineup, and Northwestern (Boo Buie) and Rutgers (Cliff Omoruyi) were able to keep All-Big Ten frontrunners.
That didn’t mean the Big Ten didn’t make its presence felt in the transfer portal. New Penn State coach Mike Rhoades used the portal to build a roster that’s quietly very competent. Indiana reeled in Kel’el Ware, the transfer portal’s No. 2-rated player.
But most of the Big Ten programs were looking for specific, high-floor role players to fill precise roles around veteran superstars.
RELATED: Rival coaches dish on top transfers
What are realistic expectations for each Big Ten transfer? There’s not enough room for each newcomer to be a star. The minutes and respective job descriptions can be complicated to sort out. The summer is when the first rotation drafts are crafted, and the fight for roles gets started. Let’s dive in.
Editor’s note: Michigan State is not included in this exercise because the Spartans did not land a single transfer.
Mike Mitchell Jr., from Pepperdine: Starter. Lead guard. Minnesota desperately needs Mitchell to hit if the Gophers want to escape the Big Ten basement. He’s a plug-and-play starter who has shot the cover off the rock in each of his first two seasons of college basketball. Mitchell is a career 42% 3-point shooter. Mitchell drilled 66 triples last year, but he struggled to finish at the rim in the West Coast Conference, and it’ll be an even bigger challenge Big Ten. But Mitchell’s a real shot in the arm for a Minnesota backcourt that was one of the Big Ten’s worst last season.
Elijah Hawkins, from Howard: Potential starter. Minnesota is built for Hawkins and Mitchell to play together. Hawkins had the seventh-best assist rate (38.5) in college basketball last season, and he made people pay for going under ball screens (44.5% from 3-point range). Mitchell’s an elite catch-and-shoot assassin so playing him off the ball and letting Hawkins run the show could make a lot of sense for Minnesota coach Ben Johnson during the minutes when Braeden Carrington is on the bench. But Hawkins (5-foot-11, 152 pounds) is tiny, so that presents some challenges on the defensive end. But he makes up for it with ridiculously-good anticipation, quick feet and sticky hands.
Jack Wilson, from Washington State: Frontcourt depth. If Minnesota might have prioritized the lightly-used Wilson just so it could have another big body to throw at Purdue National Player of the Year Zach Edey. Minnesota’s frontcourt has been decimated by injuries, so Wilson may need to be called upon for a bigger role. But ideally, the frontcourt minutes belong to Pharrel Payne, Dawson Garcia, Isaiah Ihnen and Parker Fox.
Blake Preston, from Liberty: Frontcourt rotation. Northwestern is built to play a lot of four-guard lineups, but Preston can be a high-quality backup big man behind Matthew Nicholson. Preston was an exceptional rebounder (especially on the offensive glass) and he finished around the rim at a high rate. He’s played a lot of basketball and the fifth-year senior can be one of the better backup centers in the Big Ten if he can get back to shooting a reasonable percentage at the free throw line after a miserable 37% showing last year.
Justin Mullins, from Denver: Wing depth. Mullins had a really nice freshman season at Denver, averaging 9.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.1 assists per game while shooting over 36% from 3-point range. Due to the NCAA’s new rule limiting two-time, undergraduate transfers, Mullins can be a timely, multi-year building block for Northwestern moving forward. How much can he help the ‘Cats right away? He’s behind Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry right now, but he’s got great length and might force his way onto the floor if the defense translates. He’s a Chase Audige prototype.
Ryan Langborg, from Princeton: High-level role player, potential starter. Shooooooooter. Langborg likely won’t be asked to shoot over six triples per game, but he’s a legitimate sniper who doesn’t need much space to catch and fire. Langborg has a very quick release, but the 6-foot-4 guard can also really get downhill too. He was very efficient in ball screens and looks like an ideal scheme fit for what Northwestern wants to do offensively. He gives Chris Collins another guy who is comfortable zooming around Nicholson’s bone-crushing screens. A Buie, Langborg, Berry, Barnhizer and Nicholson lineup could be very dangerous with all the shooting and smart decision-makers on the floor.
Noah Fernandes, from UMass: Starter. The departures of Cam Spencer and Paul Mulcahy clear the deck for Fernandes to put his fingerprints all over Rutgers basketball. The 5-foot-11, 175-pound veteran guard is a pick-and-roll savant who can probe the defense until the last second before finding an opening to strike. Fernandes plays with excellent pace, and he’s turned into a lights-out shooter with deep range. Rutgers needs Fernandes to be one of the best point guards in the Big Ten. He’ll have every opportunity to do just that.
Emmanuel Ogbole, from Monroe College: Frontcourt rotation. Ogbole immediately projects to be the ideal backup big man behind All-Big Ten center Cliff Omoruyi.
Jeremiah Williams, from Iowa State: TBD. If Williams is healthy and eligible (both significant questions), he’s a fantastic defensive weapon for Steve Pikiell. Williams makes it his personal mission to make the guy he’s guarding miserable for 40 minutes. Williams projects to be the next defensive wizard, following in the footsteps of Caleb McConnell. Even if he’s not eligible right away, Williams is a perfect stash for Rutgers. He could walk into the starting point guard role next year when Fernandes exhausts his eligibility.
Lance Jones, from Southern Illinois: Backcourt rotation. Purdue’s guards have three main jobs. 1) Make open catch-and-shoot jumpers. 2) Play defense. 3) Pass the ball to Zach Edey. Jones had a huge role for Southern Illinois last year (243 3-point attempts), but his efficiency dipped significantly. Purdue is banking on Jones finding the stroke he had in 2020-21 and 2021-22 and converting the high-quality, H-O-R-S-E looks Edey can so often generate. Jones shot 42.6% on catch-and-shoot 3s in 2020-21 and 35.6% in 2021-22. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Ethan Morton are going to get minutes at the three guard spots, but Jones can wiggle his way into the rotation if the jumper continues to fall. He projects to be Purdue’s best option at the 1 when Smith is on the bench, but Jones has to prove he can guard bigger wings so he can stick on the floor alongside Purdue’s sophomore starting point guard.
Jordan Geronimo, from Indiana: Frontcourt rotation. Geronimo is going to play early and often. The Indiana transfer is a bouncy, willing defender who best projects at the 4 but can also play the 5 in a pinch because of his long arms and pogo-stick hops. Indiana occasionally went to a Geronimo (6-foot-6, 225 pounds) and Race Thompson (6-foot-8 235 pounds) frontcourt rotation when Trayce Jackson-Davis needed a blow. It’ll be interesting to see if Maryland tries to do the same with Geronimo and Donta Scott (6-foot-8, 230 pounds) during the minutes when Julian Reese is on the bench. Geronimo’s importance to Maryland soars if he can toggle back and forth between the 4 and the 5. Geronimo’s ferocious offensive rebounding will give Maryland’s offense a boost, and he’s a really good cutter. He could loom in the dunker spot during the Jahmir Young-Reese pick-and-roll game to make up for his somewhat limited shooting stroke.
Mady Traore, from New Mexico State: Frontcourt depth. Traore might need some time to develop because he just simply hasn’t played a lot of basketball yet. Maryland is an ideal spot for Traore to compete for minutes behind Julian Reese, Donta Scott and Geronimo and, maybe most importantly, rapidly develop thanks to the practice reps against one of the Big Ten’s best frontcourts. Traore has to beat out Caelum Swanton-Rodger for the backup 5 minutes.
Chance Stephens, from Loyola Marymount: Stephens suffered a ruptured patellar tendon in summer workouts and is expected to miss a significant chunk of the 2023-24 season.
Justin Harmon, from Utah Valley: Backcourt rotation. Harmon faces some stiff competition for minutes in the Illini backcourt. Ty Rodgers, Terrence Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask and Luke Goode are all going to play. There’s room for one more guard to get a decent chunk of playing time. The battle between Sencire Harris and Harmon could be very vicious. Both project to be nasty on-ball defenders, but Harmon quietly shot 39.7% on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season at Utah Valley. If he can replicate that, the fifth-year senior will have a substantial role.
Marcus Domask, from Southern Illinois: High-level role player, potential starter. Southern Illinois put the ball in Domask’s hands a lot with plenty of success. But a huge on-ball role isn’t super likely for Domask at Illinois –– which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Domask was much more efficient shooting off the catch (37.3%) than off the bounce (24.1%). Domask showed some real promise as a decision-maker, and he’s just a smart hooper. He’s very good at playing with his back to the basket in the mid-post area. Brad Underwood can mix and match Domask’s pressure points depending on various matchups.
Quincy Guerrier, from Oregon: High-level role player, potential starter. Guerrier shot 35% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season. Sensing a theme? The Illini were one of college basketball’s worst shooting teams last season. Illinois shot just 29.9% on catch-and-shoot 3s in 2022-23 which ranked dead last in the Big Ten and third-worst among high-major programs. It was the second-worst mark of any Big Ten team in the last five years. Guerrier, Domask and Harmon all graded out very well in catch-and-shoot scenarios, and the players who created so many of those open looks (Shannon and Coleman Hawkins) are back. Guerrier is poised for a monster role in the Illinois frontcourt playing with Hawkins and/or Dain Dainja. Guerrier’s defensive importance should be on full display. He’s more than comfortable guarding opposing 4s which allows Hawkins do shift into a help-side disruptor.
Ben Krikke, from Valparaiso: Starter. Iowa’s roster is constructed around Krikke being a dude. There’s a lot riding on Krikke being a reliable source of rim pressure. Iowa is known for its barrage of 3-pointers, but Iowa is also phenomenal at converting around the rim. Iowa finished second in the Big Ten only behind Indiana in made buckets at the rim last year. Krikke was very efficient inside the 3-point stripe last year for Valparaiso, but he has to prove himself at the Big Ten ranks. When the crafty, 6-foot-9 lefty can get to his pull-up jumper, he’s tough to guard.
Even Brauns, from Belmont: Frontcourt rotation. Iowa’s defensive profile is pretty suspicious if Krikke has to be the anchor. Brauns is a different story. The 6-foot-9, 240-pound big man shaped Belmont’s defense in a big way. Belmont was horrible defensively when Brauns was on the bench, but opponents only shot 55.6% at the rim when he checked into the game, according to hoop-explorer. He’s physical, athletic and very smart. Brauns has all the tools to be a helpful role player.
Ace Baldwin, from VCU: Starter. Lead guard. Baldwin embodies everything about what new Penn State coach Mike Rhoades wants. He’s mentally tough, strong as a bull, relentless and filled with competitive fire. Baldwin has the game and swagger to assert himself as the best point guard in the Big Ten. Baldwin is a phenomenal defender, but his offensive game can take another step in the right direction. Baldwin eviscerates opponents in the midrange, but he needs to finish around the rim at a more-efficient rate. Baldwin ranked in the top-30 nationally in assist rate last year at VCU. That’ll translate at Penn State.
Nick Kern, from VCU: Rotation wing. Kern still has a lot of work to do on his jumper, but the defense will absolutely play. The 6-foot-6, 190-pound wing has super long arms and is feisty on the defensive end. He accepts the challenge and creates a lot of havoc. Kern is at his best offensively in transition, but even without a jumper, he was able to slice and dice into the lane with crafty drives.
Zach Hicks, from Temple: High-level rotation player, potential starter. Hicks made 102 buckets last year. Eighty came from beyond the arc. That’s his whole game right now. When his feet are set, Hicks is automatic. But the 6-foot-8, 195-pound wing is a very productive defender who should only get better as he gets more experience under his belt. Baldwin can create collapse opposing defenses easily; Hicks can make ’em pay.
Qudus Wahab, from Georgetown: Frontcourt rotation, potential starter. Wahab has sort of been a punching bag for his yearly date with the transfer portal. But he quietly was very efficient last season. Wahab averaged a career-best 0.926 points per possession on post-ups, according to Synergy. That was on serious volume (136 possessions). Wahab adds an intimidating final line of defense and is good on the glass. If the post-up efficiency can carry over to Penn State, Wahab can get back to being a solid-to-good Big Ten big man.
Puff Johnson, from North Carolina: Wing rotation. Johnson didn’t take advantage of extended minutes at UNC last year. But a change of scenery might be just what he needs. Penn State is loading up on big-bodied wings who can guard multiple positions and protect some of its smaller guards. Johnson fits that bill. We’ll see if the skill and shotmaking come around enough to be a real play-finisher offensively.
Leo O’Boyle, from Lafayette: Frontcourt rotation. O’Boyle has a clip. The 6-foot-7, 210-pound forward shot 40% on 182 3-point attempts last year. He’s a career 38% 3-point sniper. O’Boyle has to prove himself defensively at the Big Ten ranks, but skilled shot-makers are always very valuable.
RayQuawndis Mitchell, from UMKC: Guard rotation, potential starter. Mitchell had free reign to get up shots last year for a struggling UMKC program. Mitchell averaged a career-best 17.3 points per game, but the efficiency just wasn’t there. Penn State won’t need Mitchell to average 14.6 shots a night, but the free throw attempts and secondary shot creation can be a big piece to Mitchell’s game. Playing with a point guard like Baldwin should open up creases for Mitchell to attack. Less volume could also lead to a bump in efficiency from beyond the arc.
D’Marco Dunn, from North Carolina: Guard rotation, potential starter. Dunn’s talent has never been a question. The opportunity staring him in the face at Penn State is much more significant than anything he got during his two-year run at North Carolina. The 6-foot-5, 190-pound guard is brimming with athleticism and a shot of in-game confidence could help him become a true difference-maker. Dunn could be one of the highest-floor, two-way guards on the roster behind Baldwin.
Favour Aire, from Miami: Frontcourt rotation. Aire is competing with Demetrius Lilley for the backup 5 minutes. Aire has real defensive upside as an impactful shot-blocker, but he might need more time to really be ready to be a major piece. Penn State has time for him to develop.
Payton Sparks, from Ball State: Frontcourt rotation. Sparks is a rugged, workhorse. There’s a lot of competition for minutes in Indiana’s new-look frontcourt, but the 6-foot-9, 240-pound junior will not go quietly. Indiana is positioned to play plenty of two-big lineups, and Sparks’ willingness to do the dirty work could give him a significant leg up. Sparks finishes everything around the rim, and he cleans up on the glass. Sparks shot over 200 free throws in each of the past two seasons. He doesn’t pretend to be a shooter. Sparks knows exactly what his job is, and that’s a good thing.
Kel’el Ware, from Oregon: Frontcourt rotation, potential starter. Ware’s freshman-year film at Oregon wasn’t very good. But the former five-star prospect still has boatloads of upside. Ware projects to be the best rim-protector on the roster. His blend of skilled size and touch out to the 3-point stripe is impossible to develop. Ware is blessed with special traits. Indiana has the veteran point guard (Xavier Johnson) and the opportunity to get a much-improved sophomore season out of him. But Indiana smartly added enough depth in the frontcourt just in case Ware’s not fully ready yet.
Anthony Walker, from Miami: Frontcourt rotation. Walker explodes off the floor for flashy dunks. He’s shown a real knack to get downhill thanks to a tight spin move. The shooting mechanics are pretty smooth. Walker wasn’t afraid to fire his 3s up for a really good Miami squad last year, but they just didn’t go in. He can still be a high-quality backup for Indiana if his intensity on the defensive end doesn’t waiver.
Jamison Battle, from Minnesota: Starter. Battle and Ohio State need each other. A young Ohio State roster desperately needs a big-bodied veteran who can stretch the floor and provide some offensive pop. Battle hasn’t played for a winner in any of his four years of college basketball. When healthy, Battle is one of the top wings in the Big Ten. If he can get back to peak form, Ohio State has another legitimate All-Big Ten candidate.
Evan Mahaffey, from Penn State: Wing depth. Mahaffey was well-schooled by Micah Shrewsberry, and Ohio State can give him the chance to compete for real minutes in the rotation. Mahaffey was very productive whenever he got extended minutes for Penn State as a true freshman in the Big Ten. Mahaffey played some small-ball 5 for Penn State, so he’s comfortable setting screens and popping or rolling. Mahaffey proved to be an excellent cutter, and the form on his 3-point stroke is encouraging. There’s a real path for Mahaffey to take a step forward as a role player who plugs a ton of different holes for Ohio State.
Dale Bonner, from Baylor: Guard rotation. Bonner is one of three upperclassmen on Ohio State’s roster. That veteran presence should loom large. But Bonner has some game, too. Bonner played sparingly behind multiple NBA guys at Baylor, but he’s a very good catch-and-shoot sniper who can play point guard. Bonner should handle most of the point guard duties when Bruce Thornton Jr. checks out, and he might not give away some of the minutes so easily to Ohio State’s prized recruiting class.
AJ Storr, from St. John’s: High-level role player, potential starter. Going from St. John’s to Wisconsin is going to be a massive culture change from a basketball perspective. St. John’s system was very helter-skelter. Wisconsin’s is more rigid. But Storr is the exact type of athlete Wisconsin just didn’t have last year. The Badgers have all five starters back, but Storr is a massive addition to add much-needed burst when Wisconsin gets out in transition. Storr graded out very well (37.7%) on his catch-and-shoot jumpers, according to Synergy. The sophomore wing is big, strong and physical, and there’s so much room for his game to grow. Despite plus size, Storr struggled to finish through contact around the rim. That should change as his body matures. Give Storr some time to adjust to the different scheme, but he’s going to be a good one very soon.
Josiah Allick, from New Mexico: Frontcourt rotation. Allick plays so hard. But he’s also worked hard to become a very efficient back-to-the-basket scorer. Allick averaged 1.139 points per possession on 72 post-ups last season. Allick is a rim-running, high-flyer who adds a vertical pop to Nebraska’s frontcourt room that it didn’t really have. Allick should get plenty of minutes at either frontcourt spot.
Rienk Mast, from Bradley: Starter. Mast has been a good-to-really-good starter for multiple seasons at Bradley. The 6-foot-9, 240-pound big man has great footwork and a super polished offensive game. He can stretch the floor, and he can finish over either shoulder in the paint. Nebraska prioritized Mast to be the starting center. He’s the most proven big man on the roster by a wide margin. Mast’s decision-making is an underrated part of his game. Mast is very comfortable making quick decisions and finding the open man. Mast will have plenty of snipers to spray the rock out to.
Ahron Ulis, from Iowa: Backcourt rotation. Ulis is the closing thing to a real point guard on the roster. Nebraska doesn’t necessarily need to have an old-fashioned “point guard” to run its sets, but Ulis has a chance to establish himself as a Big Ten-caliber starting point guard. Ulis hasn’t proven to be a big-time shooter yet, but his drives will be essential to Nebraska’s offensive repertoire. That’s a sneaky-big key to free up the pick-and-pop game for Mast, or the Keisei Tominaga 3s.
Brice Williams, from Charlotte: Starter. Williams is set up to be one of the most productive transfers in the Big Ten. The Charlotte product is a flat-out bucket. He shot 37% on catch-and-shoot 3s, and he was just as dangerous inside the arc. Williams was very comfortable attacking advantageous matchups on the block, and he shot 84% at the free throw line. The 6-foot-7 wing has to improve his handle, and he hasn’t shown a big knack to be a distributor, but his job description at Nebraska will be to fill it up. Williams has all the tools to be a double-digit producer and flirt with All-Big Ten status.
Olivier Nkamhoua, from Tennessee: Starter. Nkamhoua was an efficient source of post-up offense for a Tennessee team that was a brick brigade. Michigan’s shooting and spacing is still a concern, but its overall offensive ecosystem is much more proven than what Nkamhoua has experienced in the past. Michigan is also betting on the talent. Despite battling injuries, Nkamhoua has improved every single year. He’s primed to have a career-best season as one of Michigan’s go-to weapons. Tennessee barely used Nkamhoua as a pick-and-roll partner. That’s likely going to change mightily at Michigan. It’ll be fascinating to see how often Juwan Howard taps the “Nkamhoua at the 5” button. His playmaking and decision-making could be on full display. Nkamhoua has plenty of talent, but he still has a lot to prove, too.
Tray Jackson, from Seton Hall: Frontcourt rotation. Tarris Reed Jr. is going to get a bunch of minutes at the 5. Nkamhoua is going to get the Lion’s share of the minutes at the 4. So where does that leave Jackson? The 6-foot-10, 215-pound forward has proven to be a legitimate big man you have to guard out on the perimeter. He’s capable of changing a game with a flurry of treys. But he’s streaky. Jackson’s path to playing time is proving he can be a secondary rim protector and play both the 4 and the 5.
Nimari Burnett, from Alabama: Role player, potential starter. Burnett just needs to play. Injuries and inconsistent playing time have robbed Burnett from getting into any semblance of a groove. Burnett needs Michigan and Michigan really needs Burnett. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound guard has the arm length, competitiveness, athleticism and anticipation to be a very good defender. The 3-point shooting will be a swing skill that ultimately hinges onto whether Burnett can stay on the floor. Michigan doesn’t have a high-volume, high-efficiency proven shooter on the roster right now. Jaelin Llewellyn is the closest thing to it, but it’s been awhile since we’ve seen it. Burnett can’t be afraid to unload the clip, or Michigan’s spacing is going become very clunky, extremely quickly.
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