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Ranking all 14 NBA offseasons since LeBron James' Decision kicked off era of star player movement – CBS Sports
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Even if it took him 11 years, there was something incredibly predictable about Damian Lillard’s trade request. Over the past decade and change, the league has developed a certain rhythm when it comes to play transactions. There was very little star power on the open market this summer, so the Blazers All-Star emerged to fill the vacuum. That’s how it tends to go. When a team fails a star long enough, he eventually finds his way to a new home. The names change, but the trend rarely does. Every offseason is headlined by a few big names making big moves.
There’s a clear line of demarcation of here. The 2009 offseason’s biggest moves were… Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva heading to Detroit? Ron Artest and Trevor Ariza swapping Western Conference contenders? Everything changed in 2010, when LeBron James launched the star movement era with The Decision. The exact mechanisms through which those stars have moved has changed over the years, but the basic line from James to Lillard is easily traceable. There was a time when offseasons were boring. Now? They’re anything but.
But which offseason in this new, post-Decision world stands out? When did we see the most high-level player movement? When did we see the least? When were those moves the most fun for unbiased observers? And which of those moves had the most important long-term implications for the league? Let’s rank every offseason since The Decision in terms of the quality, quantity and excitement of star movement.
You’re going to notice more recent offseasons ranking low on this list. Whether it’s an outlier or an emerging trend, a lot more high-level player movement is coming at the trade deadline rather than the offseason nowadays. Perhaps it’s a symptom of the league’s de-emphasis on free agency, but 2021 is a perfect example of a deadline trumping an offseason. The 2022 deadline that followed this offseason included trades of James Harden, Ben Simmons, Domantas Sabonis, Tyrese Haliburton, Kristaps Porzingis and a number of high-level role players.
But the 2021 offseason itself? Only two players who had made All-Star Games in the three previous seasons changed teams. While Kyle Lowry played a significant role in Miami’s run to the 2023 Finals, it’s fair to say, at a bare minimum, that he has not lived up to his contract. Russell Westbrook’s apocalyptic tenure with the Lakers mercifully ended at the 2023 trade deadline and represents one of the worst blockbuster trades in NBA history. Neither of the two champions we’ve seen since this offseason relied heavily on moves made in the summer of 2021. Lower-level expensive signings like Lonzo Ball, Devonte’ Graham, Evan Fournier and Spencer Dinwiddie all largely went poorly.
The one moderately successful star movement in 2021 was DeMar DeRozan’s three-year contract with the Bulls, but despite his individual play, Chicago has averaged just 43 wins since acquiring him. Very little was actually accomplished in the 2021 offseason.
The 2020 offseason contained only two players to fit our “made an All-Star team in the previous three offseasons” criteria of a star, and one of them was Al Horford, who was cap-dumped on Oklahoma City. The other, however, was Chris Paul, who led the Phoenix Suns to the NBA Finals. Neither was actually the biggest move of this offseason, though, because the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Suns in the 2021 Finals because of the Jrue Holiday trade made this offseason.
Things get somewhat barren after that, with players like Gordon Hayward and Jerami Grant headlining free agency. We did get a fun bit of drama in the form of a Bogdan Bogdanovic tampering scandal. The lesson teams seem to have learned? Don’t leak an anticipated move ahead of time if the mere act of negotiating such a move would be illegal.
In terms of actual player quality, 2020 probably beats 2015. Four “All-Stars” changed hands this offseason, but LaMarcus Aldridge was the only one still playing at that level. The other three? Rajon Rondo going to the Kings, Tyson Chandler heading to Phoenix and David Lee getting dumped on the Celtics. Aldridge helped the Spurs win 67 games, but no future champions were seriously impacted by veteran moves this offseason. It was, in most respects, a boring offseason.
“Most” is the operative word there, because the 2015 offseason happened to include the single most entertaining moment in the history of NBA free agency: the DeAndre Jordan saga. To those who don’t live on NBA Twitter, Jordan agreed to a contract with the Dallas Mavericks early in the July moratorium. However, the moratorium period, which at that point lasted until July 8, only allows verbal agreements, not signed contracts. Before Jordan could actually *sign* in Dallas, he had second thoughts and considered returning to the Clippers. And so, the great emoji wars of 2015 commenced, and one of the funniest days in basketball history ended with Blake Griffin redecorating Jordan’s home.
In terms of volume, 2011 can’t compete with any year above it. But boy, does it make up for it in terms of quality. We got two significant moves, and each of them were doozies in their own right. Here’s the kicker: they both involved the same player: The first came when Paul was traded to the Lakers… and the deal was quickly axed by then-commissioner and acting governor of the Hornets David Stern.
Paul did eventually make his way to Los Angeles, but as a member of the Clippers. The Lakers, meanwhile, spent the bulk of the following seven years in the wilderness because of Stern’s decision. Perhaps Kobe Bryant has a sixth championship with Paul by his side. Or perhaps Bryant’s age pushes Paul to pursue a move out of Los Angeles earlier than he does in reality. It’s impossible to know, but as far as moves that didn’t directly lead to championships go, the Paul debacle is near the top of the list.
The moves, in and of themselves, likely won’t prove as meaningful for the teams involved as 2011 did. Minnesota probably won’t win a championship with Rudy Gobert, for instance, and Atlanta’s prospects with Dejounte Murray are uninspiring. Donovan Mitchell’s Cleveland Cavaliers have a better chance at genuine, long-term success, but the persistent rumors about his desire to play for a big-market team might kill that contender in the crib.
But the long-term implications of the Gobert trade on both sides of the equation are absolutely enormous. Gobert netted such a historic haul that he inadvertently ruined all subsequent superstar trade negotiations. No matter what Portland gets for Lillard, for instance, it will almost certainly compare unfavorably to the Gobert package even though Lillard is the far superior player. It was, in a sense, the end of an era. In the new, second-apron world we live in, teams are simply too stingy with their assets and dollars to make another Gobert trade.
Utah, meanwhile, became the first team to truly and intentionally follow the blueprint Oklahoma City established in 2019: trade your stars a year early instead of a year late and capitalize on the far greater returns. More teams will follow this path because of the success that Thunder and Jazz have had with it, and it’s going to impact many offseasons yet to come.
The names thus far have been… OK. Paul, Porzingis, Bradley Beal and Jordan Poole are big names, but among them, only Beal can truly claim to be a star in his prime and even he is coming off of two of the worst years of his career. Grant earned the most total dollars in a single free agent contract. Fred VanVleet got the highest annual average value. Again, good players, but supporting pieces compared to most of what we’ve dealt with. However, the two stars left on the board raise this offseason’s upside significantly.
Lillard has pushed the star trade request to its newest extreme. Despite three years left on his contract, he wants to choose his next team: the Miami Heat. The NBA has already issued a warning to him and his agent, Aaron Goodwin, about doing just that, but there’s little the league can actually do to stop him. If Lillard succeeds in forcing his way to Miami, it will only further weaken teams faced with similar dilemmas in the future. Thus far, the Blazers have resisted his insistence on the Heat. The rest of the league is watching them closely.
And then there’s James Harden, perhaps the first superstar to hit the trade market without really being treated like one. If the Clippers really wanted him, they could probably get him tomorrow. Their best offer of two first-round picks, two swaps and young guard Terence Mann is almost certainly an acceptable package for Philadelphia. There has been no indication that the Clippers have even come close to that offer yet. There are no other known suitors at this time. What happens to a superstar he’s the only person in the league who thinks he’s a superstar anymore? We’re about to find out. Player movement has become so normalized in recent years that we’ll likely see more situations like his in the coming years.
Let’s call 2012 the offseason of disappointment. Five All-Stars within the three-year timespan changed teams here. One of them worked out quite well: Ray Allen with the Heat. Two of them moved again in free agency a year later, as Dwight Howard and Andre Iguodala both ditched the teams that landed them in 2012. Finally, Steve Nash and Brandon Roy combined to play 70 uninspiring games for the Lakers and Timberwolves, respectively.
So why does 2012 make it so far up this list? Two relevant trades, both involving the Houston Rockets. The first is one you’re likely familiar with. Less than a week before the start of the 2012-13 season, the Oklahoma City Thunder shipped James Harden to Houston for pennies on the dollar after failing to convince the eventual MVP to take less than the max on his rookie extension. The deal created a decade-long contender in Houston and signaled the beginning of the end for a nascent dynasty in Oklahoma City. Still, Houston failed to reach the Finals with Harden. In its own way, the move was a disappointment.
The Rockets were involved in a more successful trade that offseason, but they were on the wrong end of it. Months before landing Harden, they traded Kyle Lowry to the Toronto Raptors for a draft pick that was eventually sent to the Thunder in the Harden trade (and became Steven Adams). Lowry, unlike Harden, won a championship with his new team. Could the Rockets have landed Harden without the pick they got for Lowry? That’s unknowable, but it’s hard to imagine a better back-court partner for Harden than Lowry would have been. It was a major missed opportunity in Houston.
Our first LeBron summer is also our weakest. Yes, he brought Kevin Love to Cleveland with him, but our only other recent All-Star to change teams was Tyson Chandler going from New York to Dallas. Pau Gasol would eventually make a few more All-Star Teams in Chicago, but beyond those moves, we’re relying mostly on transactions that didn’t appear significant at the time. Shaun Livingston landing with the Warriors for instance, or Isaiah Thomas going to the Suns.
Still, any James move is so seismic that ranking one of his free agencies any lower would be sacrilege, and if you really want to get in the weeds, there’s an interesting story involving the player who almost filled his spot in Cleveland. Had James not signed with the Cavs, Cleveland would have signed Gordon Hayward to what was essentially a three-year max offer sheet in restricted free agency. Hayward eventually signed that pact with the Hornets because Utah wouldn’t pony up the full, five-year max. That would come back to bite them three years later when Hayward, who could have been under team control longer, bolted at the first possible opportunity. I’d say the lesson here is not to mess with your players, except this was also the offseason in which James reunited with Dan Gilbert. So… sometimes there just isn’t an overarching lesson.
We start 2013 by correcting some of the mistakes of 2012. Howard heads to Houston, where, at the very least, he had more success than he did during that first Lakers stint. More importantly, Iguodala joins the Warriors as one of the most important parts of their eventual dynasty. The fun doesn’t stop there. Sam Hinkie kicks off The Process with a bang by sending Jrue Holiday to New Orleans, and earlier that day, Danny Ainge laid the groundwork for Boston’s current contender by swapping Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce for, among other things, the draft picks that would become Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
These were just the moves we knew were important. How about nondescript role player Paul Millsap joining the Hawks and immediately making four All-Star Teams? Or the Bucks and Pistons swapping Brandon Jennings for Brandon Knight… only for Detroit to unfortunately include a young, unheralded forward named Khris Middleton. Heck, we can even trace some of LeBron’s future tendencies to a relatively minor transaction from this offseason. The Miami Heat used their amnesty provision to waive productive role player Mike Miller purely for tax savings. When James became a free agent next offseason, he made it clear that he would not tolerate such cost-cutting shenanigans and only signed short-term deals in Cleveland to enforce it.
Hey, speaking of James, here we have his second appearance on the list and his final team-change thus far. This time, however, he has a few more big names following him. One of them, Kawhi Leonard, easily could have joined his team. Instead, the Spurs dealt him to the Toronto Raptors. He won them a championship and then left weeks later, making him the only in-his-prime superstar to accumulate a 100% championship rate with a single team.
DeMar DeRozan moved in the Leonard trade, but sadly, the Spurs didn’t have enough left over to credibly give him a winner. DeMarcus Cousins came far closer to a ring with the Warriors, but at the moment he signed with Golden State, it seemed as though he was destined for several of them. Carmelo Anthony looked to be joining one of the few teams with a chance to stop him, but he lasted just 10 games in Houston. The 2018 offseason encompasses just about every type of move: long-term success (James, Lakers), long-term disappointment (DeRozan, Spurs), short-term success (Leonard, Raptors) and short-term disappointment (Anthony, Rockets). Few offseasons check all of those boxes.
Yes, we got the signing that helped create the greatest team of all time when Kevin Durant joined the 73-win Golden State Warriors. Yes, we got the cavalcade of miserable contracts created by the 2016 cap spike (Joakim Noah! Evan Turner! BISMACK BIYOMBO!) We even got a few fun moves in-between like Al Horford’s trip to Boston and Dwyane Wade’s defection to Chicago. Plenty of things actually happened in 2016 that had immediate ramifications. Instead, I’d rather talk about the first step out of three in what would eventually become one of the greatest trades in NBA history. I want to talk about how the Thunder traded Serge Ibaka for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, five first-round picks and two first-round swaps.
It wasn’t direct, mind you. It was like one of those old internet stories about someone continuously trading a paperclip for slightly more valuable items until he ends up with a house. In 2016, Sam Preseti traded Ibaka for Domantas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo. In 2017, he traded Sabonis and Oladipo for Paul George. In 2019, he traded George for his bounty. If the Thunder start winning championships in the relatively near future, just know that it all started with this trade. We might one day look back at this summer and say the best offseason in Thunder history was the one in which they lost Kevin Durant.
By our “All-Star within three years” metric, this was the second wildest offseason of the post-Decision era. A whopping eight All-Stars moved in the summer of 2017. The problem is that not one of them won a championship or even reached the Finals with their new team. Like 2012, most of these moves ended badly. Gordon Hayward got hurt in his first game as a Celtic and was never the same. Jimmy Butler revolted against Tom Thibodeau. The less said about the end of Kyrie Irving’s tenure in Boston, the better. Isaiah Thomas also got hurt. Anthony and George never won a playoff series with the Thunder. Wade returned to Miami after less than a year. The lone success story here would be Paul’s move to Houston. Had he remained healthy in the 2018 postseason, the Rockets might have won the championship. Of course, he didn’t.
One move actually did lead to championships, plural, in the 2017 offseason. It’s just not the one you’re thinking of. In June, the 2020 champion Lakers laid the groundwork for their roster reload by trading D’Angelo Russell to the Nets and taking back Brook Lopez. This deal, inadvertently, set up three consecutive championships. It gave the Lakers the cap space they’d eventually need to win the 2020 championship. It cost Lopez a stable home, allowing him to land in Milwaukee for the bi-annual exception a year later and eventually help the Bucks win the 2021 championship. Finally, Russell getting to Brooklyn allowed him to eventually be swapped for Durant in 2019. That allowed the Warriors to trade him for Andrew Wiggins in 2020, who was essential to their 2022 championship. Three consecutive champions relied on this one trade, which, at the time, looked like one of the smaller moves of the offseason.
If we were ranking solely on quantity, 2019 wins hands down. It was just jaw-dropping in hindsight. Not only did a whopping nine All-Stars change teams, but many of them did so coming from former contenders. The defending champion Raptors lost Leonard. Their Finals victim, the Warriors, lost Durant. Irving left the Celtics after winning 55 games. The 76ers actively chose to let Butler go to Miami after coming closer to knocking off the Raptors than anybody. Nobody was safe.
The Clippers formed their current contender by stunningly prying George away from the Thunder to build their contender. The Lakers put the finishing touch on their championship duo by landing Anthony Davis. Ill-advised as it was, the reunification of Harden and Westbrook would have been the biggest move of most offseasons. It doesn’t crack the top five in 2019.
That is what makes 2019 the only true competitor for 2010. We’ve never seen a deeper offseason of high-level star movement. Julius Randle has made two All-Star teams for the league’s biggest-market team and is only now getting mentioned! Paul’s surprisingly fun year with the Thunder was a byproduct of the Westbrook trade. The list goes on and on and on. The era of league history we exist in today started in the 2019 offseason. Of course, the same could also be said for our winner.
The names themselves don’t quite measure up to 2019. James outshines any of them individually, but you could argue that five players from 2019 (Leonard, Durant, Irving, George and Butler) were all better than any other 2010 free agent that changed teams. Chris Bosh, Hall of Famer though he is, functioned as a role player in Miami. Amar’e Stoudemire gave the Knicks one healthy season. David Lee, who signed with the Warriors largely because the Knicks preferred making a “splash,” was one of the best signings of the summer of 2010.
But this offseason was deceptively deep. Tyson Chandler was arguably the second-best player on the 2011 champion Mavericks, and Dallas landed him here, right under everyone’s noses. Tony Allen, an essential element of the Grit-and-Grind Grizzlies, made his move to Memphis in 2010. We even have a fun sliding doors moment with, for the second time, Lowry. After The Decision, he signed an offer sheet in Cleveland that Houston eventually matched. Do the Cavaliers win three No. 1 picks in a row and lure James back if Lowry joins the fold immediately? It’s hard to know. Neither the Rockets nor Cavs can really complain about the results.
But you know why we’re here. This was the summer of LeBron, and when arguably the greatest player in the history of the game fundamentally changes the league’s power structure with a single move, he’s going to land on the top of this sort of list. The moves of 2019 affected championships. The moves of 2010 affected the very way NBA teams conducted business from then on. Thanks to James, we’ll never have another offseason headlined by Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon.
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