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Five Trade Candidates Who Will Define the 2023-24 NBA Season – The Ringer
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Which big names could be on the move in the wake of the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday deals? Here are five potential targets to watch.
The NBA preseason is upon us, which means the real thing is right around the corner. Which players, teams, and story lines will drive the title race—and news cycle—over the next six months? This week, The Ringer is doing its best to provide an answer in Five Columns That Will Define the ’23-24 NBA Season. We’ve already done the players, teams, and rivalries. Today, it’s the trade candidates.
Stasis, in the modern NBA, is a structural impossibility. Damian Lillard replaces Jrue Holiday in Milwaukee, and suddenly a third of the league comes out of the woodwork, vying for the latter. Holiday then gets swapped for Malcolm Brogdon and picks, creating another, smaller bidding war for Brogdon’s services. Movement begets movement, begetting more movement.
Few trades happen in a vacuum anymore. If a team decides Zach LaVine and his massive contract are worth meeting Chicago’s reportedly high asking price, then his teammate DeMar DeRozan will likely be next on the Bulls’ chopping block. If the Hawks pull the plug on the Trae Young era, they’ll soon likely be pulling the rug out from under Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela too.
The list below does not include Young or Zion Williamson since both the players and their teams—at this juncture—seem inclined to kick the can down the road another season. It does include the extension-eligible Pascal Siakam, projected to be a free agent after this season, and Karl-Anthony Towns, who is entering a crucial, legacy-defining season with the Timberwolves.
Below are our top five trade candidates this season and the ensuing ripples they could create.
As the regular season approaches, all eyes are trained on the uneasy, likely temporary reunion between James Harden and the Sixers—not only to spy for opportunities in the immediate fallout, but to assess the contentment of Joel Embiid.
The relationships between stars and their organizations are now as closely observed as the game itself. We’re constantly reading tea leaves, anticipating potential disaster and dysfunction, trying to find out which unhappy superstar will flip the league on its head next.
This is Harden’s third time being that superstar, and despite his productive presence at practice since skipping media day and getting fined, he still wants out and he still only wants to be sent to the Clippers, who are still his only suitor.
• Five Players
• Five Teams
• Five Rivalries
• Five Trade Candidates
• Five Questions
The Sixers have spent most of the summer trying to siphon leverage out of this situation to get a star or star-level assets back from the Clippers. Unfortunately for them, they haven’t had much luck. The Clippers, unmotivated to negotiate against themselves, are shopping the unprotected 2028 first-round pick they reportedly offered to the Sixers around the league to see whether it garners the multiple picks they’re looking for. The Clippers are not, at the moment, willing to include Terance Mann, a do-it-all two-way role filler who would add value to any title contender.
There’s a good chance this standoff will drag into the regular season, when both sides’ fortunes and levels of urgency could shift by way of an injury or losing streak. The Clippers aren’t desperate for Harden’s services, but if their offense is sputtering and the injuries and losses start piling up come November, they could change their tune.
Remember: The Clippers could be the next team fielding trade requests for their own stars if things don’t turn around soon. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both extension eligible this season, with player options for next season.
The possibilities for the Sixers this season range from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June to a total teardown. With Embiid and the Sixers squarely in win-now mode, Daryl Morey needs to get a good return for Harden. If he does, the Sixers would be well positioned to retool and attract a big-time star in free agency next summer, when they’re projected to have max-level cap space and then some. If things go awry, though, Embiid could be the next guy trying to force his way out of Philly.
Masai Ujiri’s and Pascal Siakam’s answers on media day were parsed in microscopic detail. The Raptors star didn’t seem to like it very much, but he’ll have to get used to it.
This is what happens now when a star gets as far as training camp without signing an extension the year before he’s projected to be a free agent.
The first few months of the season will be an observational period for the star, who plays the same position as Scottie Barnes, Toronto’s future and the 2022 Rookie of the Year. If the Raptors play uninspiring, ill-fitting .500 ball for another season, exchanging the 29-year-old Siakam for a package that helps the team get younger will make more sense than paying him. Every extra dribble and end-of-clock midrange jumper Siakam takes this season will be viewed through the lens of Ujiri’s comments on the team’s selfishness.
The Raptors’ early returns under rookie head coach Darko Rajakovic—30 assists on 39 field goals in one preseason game—and a peppier step after a season characterized by bad vibes offer signs of a potential turnaround.
These are the things Ujiri, who has taken heat for not offering Siakam an extension already, will be focusing on when he evaluates the star’s future with the franchise.
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Even if everything in Toronto does end up being copacetic, holding off on an extension is likely in Siakam’s best interest. The most Toronto could offer him right now is $202 million over four years, which is $100 million and a year less than the supermax Siakam could be eligible for if he has an All-NBA season. But only Toronto could sign him to a supermax, which is probably part of the reason Chris Haynes reported that Siakam won’t sign an extension with a team that trades for him in an effort to dissuade potential suitors.
Portland, entering a full-scale rebuild, is off the board as a potential suitor. Offers from teams like the Pacers and Hawks are only likely to get worse for the Raptors as each day passes. Let the free agency departure of Fred VanVleet be a lesson: The sooner the Raptors can find clarity, the better.
Towns, after a legendary summer on the podcast circuit, was demure and only barely expressive on media day. Maybe it’s a sign that Towns is ready to get serious. After a FIBA run with the Dominican Republic that was both personally and professionally enriching, this is a vital season for KAT’s legacy, and one that could determine whether his future is in a Timberwolves uniform.
When Minnesota flamed out of the first round of the playoffs last season, you could hear the siren song coming from New York. Could the Knicks—with their affinity for CAA clients and abundance of draft picks and young players—finally swoop in and find a new second star to pair with Jalen Brunson?
It’s possible. But according to Fred Katz, the asking price from Minnesota remains sky high (remember what they gave up for Rudy Gobert?). And the Knicks haven’t expressed interest in trading for him.
As of now, those stances make sense for both parties. It wouldn’t be smart for the Wolves to sell low on Towns when the ill-fated Gobert-Towns experiment got only 27 regular-season games to cook after both missed parts of training camp and the preseason. This year could be a fresh start. Even if the fit remains unnatural, it couldn’t possibly get worse than how last season ended.
If the Knicks want to build a championship contender, they would be better served by waiting to see how Embiid’s situation plays out rather than cashing in their chips on a player whose lack of interior rim protection has rightfully called into question whether he’s a 16-game playoff performer or an 82-game stat sheet stuffer.
Towns, once voted as the player NBA general managers would most want to build around and dubbed as the future of the big man position, has fallen out of favor after multiple disappointing playoff performances. But there’s still room for redemption for both team and player.
The most likely scenario: Towns’s play stabilizes the Timberwolves enough to give them more leverage for a better trade offer, but he doesn’t play well enough for the Wolves to justify keeping him. Minnesota will employ three players on max deals next season, when Anthony Edwards’s extension kicks in, and Jaden McDaniels is likely expecting a Devin Vassell–esque payday soon, too. A-Rod and Co. may have deep pockets, but it doesn’t behoove anyone to flirt with the second apron of the luxury tax for the sake of keeping a .500 team together.
After Hield didn’t like the extension the Pacers offered him, the 30-year-old marksman, who’s entering the final year of his contract, requested a trade this summer.
If Hield’s primary goal is to get played and paid, the Hornets could send Gordon Hayward’s expiring contract and their protected 2026 first-round pick—or a couple of second-rounders—for Hield. With over $33 million in projected cap space next summer, Charlotte could offer Hield what is likely to be the last lucrative extension of his career. Hield made 3.6 3s a game last season, enough to account for a third of Charlotte’s 3-point production last year.
If Hield has championships on his mind after playing for the cellar-dwelling Kings and Pacers, there’s a host of playoff teams that could use his eye-scorching shooting.
Memphis could send a package centered on Ziaire Williams and Luke Kennard, who would replace Hield’s 3-point production in Indy. But the Grizzlies would likely have to go over the first luxury tax apron next season (projected to be $172 million) to extend him. They may be better served by holding on to their assets and hoping a more defensively well-rounded floor spacer like O.G. Anunoby becomes available in the event that Toronto rebuilds.
The Knicks could send Evan Fournier and a future draft pick, but they’ll probably hold off to seek out bigger stars. The Pelicans, Raptors, Thunder, and Hawks all have attractive assets and could all use Hield’s shooting, too.
That said, there’s a good chance Hield will be on the Pacers at least until December 15, when the Lakers can include their newly signed free agents in a deal. They reportedly kicked the tires on Hield before the draft. Right now, they can’t send enough outgoing salary for Hield, but come mid-December, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Cam Reddish, Jaxson Hayes, and Christian Wood will all be eligible to be moved.
Unlike Holiday, who didn’t need to bother booking a plane ticket to Portland when the Blazers traded for him, Brogdon could spend a chunk of the season—if not the entirety of it—with the Trail Blazers.
The Clippers reportedly almost dealt for Brogdon this summer, but backed out when there was a complication with his medicals. If Brogdon plays and shows that he is healthy—and if the Harden talks fall apart—the Clippers could target the veteran guard.
Brogdon played through a partial tendon tear in his elbow last season, and after forgoing surgery for rehab this summer, he told Portland reporters he is now 100 percent healthy. He also said he’s ready to embrace a leadership role on a team that employs 19-year-old Scoot Henderson at his position.
Would I be surprised if Brogdon weren’t dealt? Not necessarily. It’s not a bad idea for a young team like the Blazers to have a high-character locker room veteran like Brogdon in the fold. Think Thunder Chris Paul lite. Brogdon was a valuable mentor to Tyrese Haliburton for a year before Indiana sent Brogdon to the ring-hungry Celtics. But Portland is also squarely in rebuilding mode, and Brogdon is 30 and ringless, so an eventual trade makes sense for both sides.
Because he’s owed $45 million over the next two years and has a sketchy injury history, Brogdon won’t command as much of a return as Hield. But I could see the sweepstakes for both heating up before the trade deadline for the same reason: Every top team that didn’t make the Finals last year is now stacking talent. The Celtics made two rotation-shifting trades after being a quarter away from the Finals. The Suns have a new Big Three. The Lakers revamped. The Warriors added CP3. The Nuggets and Heat, who lost key rotational pieces this summer after making the Finals, could both use Brogdon. Could Kyle Lowry, Justin Champagnie, and a second-round pick get it done? If healthy, a multi-positional creator and defender like Brogdon could be a key piece in the race toward a championship.
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