3 Sleeper Bets for Every Major 2023-24 NBA Player Award – Bleacher Report

We’re now less than two months from the start of the 2023-24 NBA season, and sportsbooks have already posted odds for every major award.
Today, we’re going to look at some sleeper picks—which we’ll define as anyone boasting odds longer than +1000 at FanDuel Sportsbook—for each of those awards.
Based on situation, clues from the past, developmental curves and anything else that might give us a good feeling about a pick, here are the long shots that might be worth the risk.

Kyrie Irving: +2300
The safer bet here might be Kyrie Irving’s teammate, Luka Dončić. But even though Dončić’s odds of winning this award are higher than +1000, he doesn’t feel like a sleeper.
Instead, we’ll go with Kyrie, who figures to be Luka’s primary target when looking for someone to feed in the clutch.
In those situations—when one-on-one basketball might be as useful as it is at any point in a game—Kyrie will have plenty of chances to initiate as well. His isolation scoring efficiency as a Maverick ranked in the 91st percentile leaguewide, while Luka’s was in the 46th percentile.
Jimmy Butler: +2900
Jimmy Butler always seems to save his last gear for the postseason, so this isn’t the safest pick. But knowing that gear exists might make this worth a gamble.
In the highest-leverage moments—again, typically in the playoffs—Butler finds an intensity on both ends that few players can match. The key to his case might be the two-way impact.
Last-second buckets will generate the highlights and conversation, but Butler shutting down a few clutch opportunities for opponents could be a tiebreaker for him.
Jamal Murray: +4000
Like Butler, Murray is essentially a different player in the playoffs. He has averaged 25.0 points and 6.3 assists during the postseason across his career, compared to 16.9 points and 4.2 in the regular season.
While there might be a temptation to continue to coast through the winter after already proving his worth on the game’s biggest stage, Murray could do the opposite and ride the momentum of his championship into a prove-it campaign like the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors did after their first title.

Austin Reaves: +1600
Austin Reaves is in the career sweet spot for the Most Improved Player of the Year. He’s still developing, but he’s one year past the “we can’t give the award to a second-year player who’s supposed to be better” argument.
As he enters his third campaign, Reaves has clearly established himself as the Los Angeles Lakers’ third-best player. During their run to the Western Conference Finals this past season, he averaged 16.9 points, 4.6 assists, 3.2 free throws and 2.4 threes per game while shooting 89.5 percent from the line and 44.3 percent from deep.
Being on a prominent team like the Lakers will help Reaves’ chances, too. And through the early portion of the FIBA World Cup, he’s been a fan favorite and undeniable spark off the bench.
All of that should lead to significantly better numbers than the 13.0 points and 3.4 assists he put up last regular season.
Tyus Jones: +2000
Tyus Jones has long been considered one of the best backup point guards in the NBA, but he was especially dangerous in that role over the last two years.
Since the start of 2021-22 (regular and postseason), Jones has averaged 15.5 points and 8.3 assists per 75 possessions while shooting 36.8 percent from deep.
Now that he’s on the rebuilding Washington Wizards, where he figures to be the full-time starter, Jones may get a lot more time to display his floor generalship.
Josh Giddey: +3100
Josh Giddey’s case is similar to Reaves’ in two respects. First, he’s entering his third season. Plenty of guys take a leap at this point, and they aren’t necessarily dinged for it in the MIP conversation like a second-year player might be.
Second, Giddey is in the middle of what could be a confidence-boosting run with his national team at the FIBA World Cup. During the first round of group play, Giddey averaged 19.0 points, 7.3 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game.
If the Oklahoma City Thunder have a breakout season (and they have the talent to do so), Giddey’s wide-ranging contributions, size and patience as a playmaker will have a lot to do with it.

Buddy Hield: +1200
This one comes down to who actually starts for the Indiana Pacers. They have three wings (Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin and Bruce Brown) who are all currently listed with odds for Sixth Man of the Year.
If Hield is the odd man out, he’s a solid bet to take home the award.
Over the last five seasons, Hield has averaged 17.8 points and 3.6 threes per game while shooting 40.0 percent from deep across 386 games. That kind of production (or something close to it) off the bench would undoubtedly have him the Sixth Man of the Year mix.
Josh Hart: +2900
The New York Knicks are bringing back all five starters from last year’s playoff team. While they should think about getting RJ Barrett out of that mix, he and Quentin Grimes figure to be in that lineup again.
That means Josh Hart will likely be coming off the bench as one of the league’s most competitive defenders and best rebounding wings.
Last year, over his 25 games with the Knicks (24 off the bench), Hart averaged 10.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. In that stretch, New York was plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions with Hart on the floor and plus-1.2 without him.
Kevin Porter Jr.: +4000
Right as it was starting to look like Kevin Porter Jr. might be figuring some stuff out, the Houston Rockets signed Fred VanVleet in free agency. The move will almost certainly send KPJ to the bench, where he might be even more effective against backups.
Last season, Porter averaged a career-high 19.2 points, 5.7 assists and 2.4 threes per game while shooting 36.6 percent from deep and posting the first above-average estimated plus-minus of his career. (EPM is one of the most trusted catch-all metrics among NBA front offices.)

Walker Kessler: +2000
In 2023-24, Walker Kessler won’t have to spend half of the season earning his coach’s trust and beating out a veteran (Jarred Vanderbilt) for minutes. He’ll be the unquestioned starter from the outset.
His defense in that role was nothing like that of a typical rookie.
In 40 starts, Kessler averaged 6.4 defensive rebounds and 2.7 blocks in 27.7 minutes per game. And over the entire season, the Utah Jazz’s plus-minus per 100 possessions was plus-2.8 with Kessler on the floor compared to minus-4.0 with him off.
Chet Holmgren: +4000
Like Kessler, Holmgren is a center with a massive 7’6″ wingspan, great timing as a shot blocker and awareness as a rim protector.
Unlike Kessler, Holmgren doesn’t have anyone in his way in the rotation for his rookie campaign.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will almost certainly start Holmgren at the 5 right away. If they push into the top 10 on defense (they were 16th last season), he’ll get a ton of credit for it.
Myles Turner: +6000
Myles Turner has led the league in blocks per game twice, but he’s somehow never made an All-Defense team (perhaps due to lack of availability).
If he’s relatively healthy, he’s almost a lock to average at least two swats per game.
If the addition of Bruce Brown helps the Indiana Pacers field a competent defense, Turner’s rim protection will get a lot of attention.

Brandon Miller: +1600
It’s hard to pick against the top three in Rookie of the Year odds. The path to the award is pretty easy to see for Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren or Scoot Henderson.
It’s clear enough that picking anyone else almost feels more like a throwaway than a sleeper. Brandon Miller could crash that party, though.
With Kelly Oubre Jr. presumably not coming back to the Charlotte Hornets, there should be minutes available for Miller on the wing. If he’s a dedicated floor spacer alongside LaMelo Ball and shoots anything like he did in college (when he made 38.4 percent of his threes and 85.9 percent of his free throws), he could be a real weapon right away.
Keyonte George: +5000
This is undoubtedly a flyer, but point guard is the one position where the Jazz might have a pressing need, and Keyonte George was impressive in that role over the summer.
In six summer-league games in Salt Lake City and Las Vegas, George averaged 18.7 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 38.6 percent from deep in only 26.4 minutes per game.
If Talen Horton-Tucker or Collin Sexton fails to lock down the starting 1 responsibilities early, George could take over much like Walker Kessler eventually did at the 5 in 2022-23.
Jarace Walker: +8000
We’ve already talked about Myles Turner at the 5 and wings like Bruce Brown, Bennedict Mathurin and Buddy Hield. Tyrese Haliburton obviously fills the lead playmaker role for the Indiana Pacers, and Andrew Nembhard even provides some depth there.
But 6’5″ Aaron Nesmith was the nominal 4 for much of the Pacers’ 2022-23 season. They clearly need a power forward, and while the acquisition of Obi Toppin might help there, Jarace Walker could force his way into some playing time.
Walker was a ferocious defender in college, and effort often translates quicker than skill to the NBA. If Walker demonstrates an ability to fill in gaps on that end right away, he can get on the floor. From there, Haliburton can get him plenty of open looks inside.

Devin Booker: +1700
After the last three years, it feels like Nikola Jokić could sleepwalk his way into a 25-point triple-double every night. For the fourth year in a row, he’s likely to have the strongest statistical argument for MVP.
But that doesn’t mean he’ll win it.
There are still plenty of voters who’ll resort to the “best player on the best team” argument in the right situation, and the Phoenix Suns could very well finish 2023-24 with the best record in the league.
If that happens in spite of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal failing to reach 60 games played (which might be likely, given the last four years), it’ll be because Devin Booker was lights out.
Another season with around 27 points and six assists per game, but this time for a 60-win team, could be enough to get Booker the award.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +1800
The Oklahoma City Thunder would have to take a significant leap for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to force his way into the MVP conversation. But if he repeats or slightly improves upon his 2022-23 campaign, and a few members of OKC’s young core (like Giddey or Jalen Williams) are ahead of schedule, the Thunder could finish with a win total in the low 50s.
In what appears to be an era packed with parity, that could be enough to lead the West.
And like Booker, in that universe, SGA would (rightfully) get the bulk of the credit for his team’s success.
Zion Williamson: +5000
Health (or lack thereof) is going to be a defining characteristic of Zion Williamson’s career from here on out. If he’s available, you can bet he’ll be close to 30 points per game and the New Orleans Pelicans will compete for a high seed in the Western Conference.
He has undeniable scoring talent that generated MVP buzz before injuries derailed his and New Orleans’ campaign in 2022-23.
If he finally has a fully healthy campaign, you can bet he’ll at least be in the MVP conversation.
Odds, lines and betting splits refresh periodically and are subject to change. 21+ and present in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA (permitted parishes only), MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, KS, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, or WY.
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