Ranking the Most Overrated NBA Players – Bleacher Report

Sometimes, a player’s reputation outstrips his actual value.
This can happen for several reasons. Bucket-getting clout is probably the greatest distractor; a 20-point scoring average can obscure shoddy defense, bad passing or other problem areas. But there are plenty of ways for NBA players to earn an “overrated” label.
Before we go any further, it’s important to note that even the guys featured here are probably better at their jobs than any of us will ever be at ours—unless you’re lucky enough to be among the world-class elite at what you do. Calling an NBA player overrated is all relative.
All we’re doing is measuring a player’s actual production/value/worth against his perceived production/value/worth.
Keeping that logic in mind, these are the five most overrated players in today’s NBA.

There aren’t many players you’d trust more than DeMar DeRozan to create a good scoring chance from a one-on-one standstill matchup. His bag is deep, his footwork in the mid-post impeccable and his foul-drawing craft second to none.
That’s why DeRozan has ranked in the 88th percentile or better in isolation scoring efficiency across each of the last four seasons. A six-time All-Star, he owns a career average of 21.0 points per game.
And yet, he was an easy inclusion on our list because DeRozan’s individual bucket-getting prowess has led to precious little team success and comes with a level of defensive ineptitude that basically cancels out (at best) the value he provides as a scorer. Throw in a career-long reluctance to work off the ball or shoot threes, and DeRozan has essentially pigeonholed himself as a high-usage weapon who limits his team’s offensive ceiling and can’t scale down into a supporting role because he doesn’t contribute enough in other areas.
In 11 of his first 12 seasons, DeRozan’s teams had higher net ratings with him off the floor than on. Though his Chicago Bulls have played better with him in the game than out over the last two years, the defensive issues have persisted, and the friction between him and Zach LaVine is a direct result of DeRozan’s inability to help when he’s not operating as a first option.
Limited in key ways and tricky to integrate into a team concept, DeRozan is an elite individual scorer who has yet to prove he can do enough in other areas to drive success.

Hypothetically, if you were drafting individual players as the first pieces of a title-chasing roster *and were guaranteed full health*, Kawhi Leonard would probably come off the board somewhere in the top 10. Maybe even the top five.
Unfortunately, that asterisked caveat about health doesn’t exist in the real world, and we can’t ignore it in evaluating Leonard.
None of this is his fault, but the two-time champ, two-time Defensive Player of the Year and two-time Finals MVP simply cannot summon his best self over a full season anymore. He’s played 60 games or fewer every year since 2016-17 and has bowed out of his last two postseasons early with significant knee injuries that required surgery.
Now 32 and toting a health history that suggests 30-plus missed games should be the minimum expectation, Leonard doesn’t belong among the league’s elite unless you’re talking on a per-minute basis.
Load management is guaranteed to limit him from October to April, and that’s bound to hurt his team’s playoff seeding. And now that we know even the most careful treatment during the year won’t keep Leonard from breaking down in the playoffs, it’s hard to believe it’s even possible to have him at his best when it matters most.
A great player for 50 games spread across several months is nothing to sneeze at. But Leonard’s unavailability is now his defining feature. Sad as that is, we need to recognize he’s no longer at home in the league’s top superstar tier.

Given the rise of better stats, we should be smart enough to know that a center averaging a double-double doesn’t mean what we used to think it did. For example, we now understand that the best big men can survive defensively in space, lower the accuracy (and even attempt rates) on opponent shots around the rim and generally do more than take up room in the lane.
Jonas Valanciunas looks like a star if viewed through a 1996 lens. But his 2022-23 averages of 14.1 points and 10.2 rebounds on 54.7 percent shooting don’t hold up from a modern perspective.
New Orleans seemed to value his ability to score on the block last season, and Valanciunas wound up with the highest post-up frequency in the league. But he only managed .98 points per attempt, which ranked in the 56th percentile. All those post touches weren’t fatal with Zion Williamson out of action, but any team that prizes spacing (which is all of them) and clear driving lanes should never dump the rock into Valanciunas, which basically erases his offensive worth.
The real trouble is on the other end, where Valanciunas’ immobility makes him a target in pick-and-roll coverage. Unable to switch onto guards, he tends to drop toward the bucket, which isn’t a great alternative. When designated as the primary defender, Valanciunas allowed opponents to shoot 65.3 percent inside six feet, the second-worst figure among players who guarded at least 450 shots at close range.
Valanciunas is tough and he competes, but his best skills don’t drive winning. And his shortcomings can low-key undercut his team’s chances at success.

Dillon Brooks might not have landed here if he’d signed a contract for the mid-level exception or less following his unceremonious dismissal from the Memphis Grizzlies. But the Houston Rockets swooped in and outbid everyone in handing the defense-first 27-year-old a four-year deal that could be worth up to $90 million with incentives.
That’s a lot of money for the player who had the lowest Box Plus/Minus of anyone who logged at least 2,000 minutes last season.
Brooks’ value comes entirely on defense, but his contributions on that end have rarely negated the damage he does offensively. Of the 65 players who attempted at least 900 shots last season, Brooks’ 49.4 true shooting percentage ranked dead last.
There’s a strong case to be made that Brooks was the single most damaging offensive player in the league last season, and it’s not like he’s been much better in the past. He’s never once posted a true shooting percentage within spitting distance of the league average. That level of offensive ineffectiveness is hard to deal with at any position, but it’s particularly damaging on the wing, where most clubs expect to get relatively efficient scoring.
Add in all the counterproductive bluster and bear-poking that backfired so often over the last several years, and the Rockets are giving quality-starter money to a player who—statistically and according to the Grizzlies’ handling of his free agency—does more harm than good.

How is it possible for a three-time All-Star center who just finished a season with averages of 19.1 points, a league-leading 12.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists to be overrated?
Well, start with the fact that he was essentially outplayed by Kevon Looney in the Sacramento Kings’ first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors. That series swung in part on Sabonis’ inability to shoot from the perimeter, put the ball on the floor in space or defend the rim. Those three shortcomings mattered far less during the regular season, when opponents didn’t study up and force the Kings center out of his comfort zone.
Sabonis is an immensely gifted offensive player, but he’s also limited. For a Kings team that is now concerned with succeeding in the playoffs, those limitations are meaningful. If he can’t shore up his specific and obviously exploitable weaknesses, Sabonis will struggle to be a factor in the postseason games Sacramento wants to win. The Warriors provided the book on how to marginalize Sabonis, and future playoff opponents will have read it carefully.
Compounding matters, the Kings handed Sabonis a contract extension that’ll pay him $217 million over the next five years. That’s max-level cash for a player whose postseason minutes against Golden State coincided with a minus-9.5 net rating.
An effective regular-season weapon who had a great deal to do with the Kings’ 2022-23 leap, Sabonis comes with too many conspicuous failings to warrant his star reputation and salary.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale.

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