Pros and cons for No. 3 transfer Grant Nelson's final four schools – 247Sports

Former North Dakota State star Grant Nelson withdrew his name from the 2023 NBA Draft and will return to the collegiate ranks next season with the hopes of soaring into the first-round conversation in the 2024 NBA Draft. Nelson is the No. 3-rated player in the college basketball transfer portal, and he’s the best available player remaining on the board. Hawkeye Insider’s David Eickholt reported that Iowa, Alabama, Baylor and Florida State are the top contenders.
Visits are in the process of being scheduled, and a decision is expected to be made in the near future.
The 6-foot-11, 235-pound forward averaged 17.9 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.7 blocks and 0.8 steals per game this past season. Nelson’s adept handle and skill in the open floor is tantalizing. He was a menace in transition and shot 74.6% at the rim and 50.8% in the paint, per CBB Analytics.
Nelson competed in the NBA Draft Combine, and his athleticism shined in the testing portion. Nelson had an eye-popping, 9.99-second time in the pro lane drill. No one had a better time than Nelson in the drill which showcased his lateral agility upside. But he struggled at times to create separation off the bounce in the halfcourt during two NBA Draft Combine scrimmages. Nelson still projects to be a high-level addition in the transfer portal who can level up at the high-major level in 2023-24. Nelson shot just 29.4% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season, but he’s a career 71% free throw shooter who will likely be thrust into a different role than he had at North Dakota State.
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Here are the pros and cons for each of Nelson’s top contenders.

Pros: We’ll get to the offensive fit for Nelson and Baylor in a second. Can you imagine the defensive activity with a healthy Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Nelson teaming up in the frontcourt? Oh, and potentially Jalen Bridges? There’s a path for Baylor to return to defensive relevance. Now let’s get to the stuff everyone cares about. Baylor landing prized Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis is a big boon in the Nelson sweepstakes. Dennis racked up a sparkling 32.1% assist rate last year as the lead dog of an up-tempo, five-shooter lineup. Dennis and Nelson could be very good for eachother both in the pick-and-pop game and the pick-and-roll attack. As a team, Baylor ranked 84th in pick-and-roll offense last year, per Synergy. Scott Drew is a brilliant offensive mind who could use Nelson in the dunker spot or as a middle-of-the-floor outlet to unlock his playmaking if opposing defenses blitz ball screens. You don’t have to squint to see Nelson thriving in everything Baylor tries to do.

Cons: The presence of “Everyday Jon” or Joshua Ojianwuna likely limits Nelson’s ability to get a ton of minutes as a small-ball center. That’s fine because Nelson projects to be mostly a four at both the collegiate and professional level, but Alabama and Iowa can both give Nelson that option to play some at the 5 and showcase even more of his off-the-bounce game.
Pros: FSU coach Leonard Hamilton has a long list of guys that look like Nelson who he’s helped usher into the NBA. But Scottie Barnes might be the best comp for Nelson to try and emulate. Barnes (6-foot-9, 227 pounds) operated as a point-forward for Florida State in 2020-21, and Nelson is in the same zip code size-wise (6-foot-11, 235 pounds). Nelson is comfortable with the rock in his hands just like Barnes. Florida State has to replace Matthew Cleveland, and Nelson can walk into a featured role for a program that NBA decision-makers have been a big fan of. This roster is quietly ready to make some noise if it could land Nelson. Darin Green is a steady, reliable shot-maker. Jalen Warley, Cam’Ron Fletcher, Chandler Jackson and Baba Miller are exciting post-hype sleepers. Primo Spears, Jaylen Gainey, Josh Nickelberry and Cam Corhen are all no-doubt rotation pieces.

Cons: Florida State has been really underwhelming in each of the last two years, and injuries have been a big reason why. Is that just random, bad luck? Or the start of a bad trend? It’s also fair to have questions about Florida State’s point guard room. That synergy in ball screens will be so important in order to get the most out of Nelson.
Here are the efficiency numbers for each of the top potential pick-and-roll partners for Nelson, per Synergy.
Florida State’s Primo Spears: 52nd percentile
Baylor’s RayJ Dennis: 78th percentile
Iowa’s Tony Perkins: 82nd percentile
Alabama’s Jahvon Quinerly: 61st percentile
Pros: We can talk about traits, skillsets and impacting winning. That’s all well and good. You know what else gets you drafted? Getting buckets and putting up big numbers. Iowa can help Nelson do that effortlessly. Iowa is one of the top offensive havens in the country. It’s ranked inside the top-20 in offensive efficiency in six straight seasons. It’s been a top-5 offensive nationally in each of the last four years. Iowa has a big man who Nelson can play high-low with in Valpo transfer Ben Krikke. It has capable 3-point snipers like Payton Sandfort, Josh Dix and Patrick McCaffery who also double as willing role players.
The presence of a point guard like Tony Perkins can be a big boon for Iowa in this process. Perkins graded out well in ball screens last year. But Iowa would also allow Nelson to be himself. Hitting the glass and pushing it out into transition would not only be accepted but encouraged. There’s so much Keegan and Kris Murray tape that Nelson can digest and imagine himself doing. He might not shoot it the same as the Murray brothers, but he’s a better playmaker and he does the little things (cut hard, hit the offensive glass) that the Murrays made so much money on.

Cons: There are major defensive questions about this Iowa roster. Nelson’s path to the pros is centered around him being a high-level defensive weapon who can also do creative things offensively with his plus size. At Iowa, Nelson might have to be the piece who is constantly forced to over-help and put out fires at the rim. That can lead to bad habits and iffy tape.
Pros: Alabama’s current backcourt is better than the rest of the pack. No one can compete with the proven talent of Aaron Estrada, Mark Sears and Jahvon Quinerly. That’s an absolutely loaded group of smart decision-makers who can stretch the floor, put pressure on the rim and make Nelson’s life so easy. Nelson can play at the same time as Nick Pringle, and Nate Oats could also use Nelson at the 5 to get Rylan Griffen on the floor at the 4 with those veteran guards. Nelson could be a secondary creator surrounded by a ton of shooting and a wide-open lane. Alabama has to replace Brandon Miller, but Nelson likely won’t be that on-the-ball, high-usage shot creator, but he can be a fabulous connector for an Alabama team that would be well on its way to competing for another SEC crown and positioned to make a deep run in March. Nelson could easily be a double-double guy who flirts with a triple-double on some nights when Bama’s 3s are falling.
Cons: Alabama used a lot of deep drop coverage last year to become one of the best defenses in the country. If Nelson was playing the 5, would that be the defensive gameplan Oats’ prefers? That’s not necessarily what Nelson would be asked to do at the next level. They want him to be switchy and to show he can move his feet on the perimeter.
This is also where the feedback from NBA decision-makers comes into play. Nelson absolutely can be an elite role player for Alabama, but the presence of this many bucket-getting guards could really limit his scoring numbers. Think like an 11-point, nine-rebound, three-assist guy. Does the NBA want to see him be a lead dog? Or does it want him to be a high-level role player for a really good team in a similar role he might have at the NBA? That’s a fascinating question.
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