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College Basketball Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday December 20 – VSiN

Published

11 months ago

December 21, 2023

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By Adam Burke (VSiN.com)
We’ve got a nice, round number in college basketball today with exactly 40 games featuring two Division I opponents. We did have a few early starts that I ignored for the purposes of the article, but most of the card wound up being fair game.
We’ve got some big-time games tonight, including Big East conference play, Alabama vs. Arizona, and a marquee matchup at Madison Square Garden between Baylor and Duke. Keep in mind that home-court advantage isn’t worth what it usually is with students on break and we also have some teams playing on some fairly long layoffs because of exams last week.
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Here are some thoughts on the December 20 card (odds from DraftKings):
7 p.m. ET
We’ve got a CAA vs. MAAC matchup here, as the Blue Hens host the Broncs. Rider is a team that I think will improve offensively as we go forward. Rider comes in with some hideous shooting numbers, as they rank 358th in eFG% offense, 345th in 2P%, and 359th in 3P%, but their strength of schedule has a lot to do with that. They have played the 51st-ranked schedule in the nation. They had .872, .768, and .832 points per possession against Marquette, Nebraska, and Duquesne. They also had a miserable performance against Stony Brook in the next game.
However, we’re now on a five-game streak for Rider with at least a point per possession. They continue to struggle defensively, though, as they’ve allowed at least 1.165 PPP in three of their last five games and 1.03 PPP to Siena in another. Delaware is a quality offensive team that gets to the rim a lot and shoots the 3 at an above average rate.
Delaware’s schedule ranks around the national average, but they’ve played the 251st-ranked slate of opposing offenses. It’s entirely possible that Rider’s offense just isn’t good, but their last five games have shown that they have a little more scoring punch when not facing top-tier defenses.
If the spread is an accurate forecast of the game, we could see a good amount of free throws and an extension of the game via fouling late that should help the effort towards getting over this total. Also, Delaware is a little bit of a positive regression candidate on FG% on Close Twos and they can achieve that against Rider, who has allowed opponents to shoot nearly 62% on those shots.
Pick: Over 143
8 p.m. ET
We could get an NBA score in this game tonight between UMBC and Iowa. In the sense that Iowa might score over 100 points. UMBC leads the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Iowa is 14th. KenPom has the Retrievers second and the Hawkeyes 20th. This will be a fast-paced game and one team will be vastly superior on each and every possession.
This is a UMBC squad that ranks 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Torvik. They are 213th in eFG% defense, 261st in 2P%, and 85th in 3P% defense, but they have played the 344th-ranked schedule in the nation per Torvik and 354th per KenPom. UMBC has played the 360th-ranked slate of opposing offenses per KenPom. Iowa is the 22nd-ranked offense in the nation by KP and 25th by BT.
This is the type of game where Iowa will get whatever shot offensively they want and this will be an up-tempo game as well. With Northern Illinois on deck in nine games, the Hawkeyes don’t have any kind of lookahead spot or anything like that. They’ve already eclipsed 100 points twice this season and I think they can do it again here.
Defensively, Iowa has had some blind spots, but they’ve come against top-50 competition. They allowed 1.226 points per possession to Creighton, 1.115 to Oklahoma, 1.342 to Purdue, 1.217 to Iowa State, and 1.207 to Michigan. In their other games, they’ve allowed .837, .893, .962, 1.009 (Seton Hall), .996, and .668.
This should be a runaway rout and Iowa’s more talented bench guys should be able to keep the fun going later in the game as UMBC likely lets some of their bench guys play.
Pick: Iowa -26.5
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