College Basketball Picks Against the Spread: Saturday, December 16 – The Messenger

Here are The Messenger’s picks against the spread for the top ten men’s college basketball games on Saturday, Dec. 16. (All times are Eastern.) So far this season, Jeff Goodman has the edge (10-9-1) on Seth Davis (8-11-1).
Seth Davis: We knew the Jayhawks would have as good a “core four” as any team in the country. The question coming into the season was: Who else will contribute? The answer, so far, has been no one. KU ranks 343rd in the country in percentage of bench minutes, per KenPom. That hasn’t hurt them too badly — their only loss was to Marquette at the Maui Invitational — and I don’t think it will be a big problem against one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. The Hoosiers got smacked by Auburn, 104-76, last Saturday in Atlanta, and it’s highly doubtful that senior point guard Xavier Johnson, who has missed the last three games because of foot injury, will be available to face the Jayhawks. Sophomore center Kel’el Ware, the Oregon transfer who leads the team in scoring (16.7 points per game) and rebounding (9.2), has been a great addition, but the Hoosiers don’t have the firepower to stay with Kansas. Kansas (-6.5)
Jeff Goodman: I thought about bringing a brick into Assembly Hall on Saturday because neither of these teams has stellar perimeter shooting. Even though this is one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball, I don’t see the Hoosiers keeping this one close at the end of the day. Kansas (-6.5)
Seth Davis: Frankly, I’m shocked the point spread is this small. The Spartans started the season ranked No. 4 in the AP’s preseason poll, but they hit rock bottom on Sunday when they lost at Nebraska to fall to 0-2 in the Big Ten and 4-5 overall. Michigan State shot well for once in that game (8 of 17 from behind the arc). The problem is defense and rebounding, which is a shocking thing to say about a Tom Izzo-coached squad. That’s a mighty big problem to have against an undefeated Baylor squad that ranks first in the country in 3-point shooting, second in adjusted offensive efficiency, and sixth in offensive rebound percentage. Baylor (-3.5)
Jeff Goodman: It’s a huge game for a Spartans team that’s reeling and needs a resume win. Tom Izzo’s a Hall of Famer, but I’ve run out of confidence with this group and am taking the Bears on the road. Baylor (-4)
Seth Davis: The Aggies have had a rough stretch of late, losing three of their last five games — most recently at home to Memphis on Sunday. They’ll have a serious challenge in this one, to say the least. L.J. Cryer transferred from Baylor and has fit seamlessly into Kelvin Sampson’s system, and he forms one of the top perimeter trios in the country along with 6-foot-1 senior point guard Jamal Shead and 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Emanuel Sharp. I’d expect the Cougars to win, but this is a really big point spread. These are two of the slowest teams in the country, and Texas A&M will be the best opponent the Cougars have played this season. Texas A&M (+8.5)
Jeff Goodman: I’m with Seth on this one. It’s just too many points. I like Houston, but not by 10. Texas A&M (+8.5)
Seth Davis: Clemson has been one of the season’s pleasant surprises. Transfer Joe Girard (from Syracuse) has given this offense a major boost (15.1 points per game on 40.5% 3-point shooting), but Brad Brownell has built this roster mostly with returning players, and his team’s undefeated start includes road wins over Alabama and Pitt plus a 74-66 neutral court win over TCU last Saturday. It’s not easy to win in FedEx Forum, but I think Clemson is capable of pulling it off, especially with the Tigers’ lack of inside presence created by the mysterious absence of 6-foot-11 senior forward Jordan Brown from the program. The addition of Kansas State transfer Nae’Qwan Tomlin, a 6-foot-10 senior forward, who was dismissed from Kansas State’s basketball program following a disorderly conduct arrest, will help eventually, but he will not be eligible in time for this game. Clemson (+2.5)
Jeff Goodman: OK, finally a game we disagree on. I’m going with the home team here, and I also think this is where Clemson finally stumbles. David Jones has been playing like an All-American lately. Memphis (-2.5)
Seth Davis: Both these teams are still smarting from the events of last weekend. Ohio State blew an 18-point second-half lead and lost at Penn State. UCLA fell, 65-56, at Villanova, which was the Bruins’ third loss in their last five games. UCLA, which is the second-youngest Power Six team in the country and has trouble generating offense to say the least, badly needs a bounceback game from 6-foot-3 freshman guard Sebastian Mack, the leading scorer who was sensational during the Maui Invitational but averaged 7.0 points on 5 for 20 shooting over his last two games. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are an elite offensive team (ninth nationally in 3-point shooting, 15th in adjusted efficiency), and 6-foot-2 sophomore Bruce Thornton gives them an old soul at point guard. UCLA might have the higher ceiling long-term, but the Bruins are too soft and inexperienced right now, which should give the Buckeyes the proper edge in this one. Ohio State (-3)
Jeff Goodman: I see Seth has finally given up on his young Bruins. They just have too many questions right now. The Buckeyes have been up and down, but need this one after the loss at Penn State. Ohio State (-3)
Seth Davis: What did we do to deserve such a wonderful matchup in December? The hiccup at Northwestern aside, Purdue has lived up to all preseason expectations, not only because Zach Edey is again doing Zach Edey things, but because sophomore point guard Braden Smith has been much improved. Smith was incendiary in last Saturday’s win over Alabama (27 points, 8 assists, 1 turnover), but he is going to be defended at a much higher level in this one. So is Edey, for that matter, thanks to the presence of Arizona center Oumar Ballo, a 7-foot fifth-year senior who is averaging 12.5 points and 6.3 rebounds, and his more than capable backup, 7-foot-2 freshman center Motiejus Krivas. The Wildcats’ defense has also gotten a tremendous boost from 6-foot-7 senior forward Keshad Johnson, a transfer from San Diego State who is one of the few players in the country capable of guarding both Smith and Edey. I’m a little surprised Arizona is favored given that it is a de facto home game for Purdue, but the Wildcats are coming in hot. Arizona (-1)
Jeff Goodman: I hate to go against my alma mater here, but I’m going to bank on the fact that Purdue’s guards make open shots and the pro-Boilermakers crowd makes a difference in this one. Purdue (+1)
Seth Davis: Now we know why Kentucky fans were so anxious to see Aaron Bradshaw in uniform. The 7-foot-1 freshman forward, who missed the Wildcats’ first seven games as he recovered from surgery to repair a broken foot, had 17 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks last Saturday in just his second college game, sparking the ’Cats to an 81-66 win at Penn. That makes Kentucky’s fast-paced, 3-point happy offense more lethal. I wouldn’t be surprised to see John Calipari promote Bradshaw given that the Tar Heels have one of the nation’s best big men in the country in 6-foot-10 super senior Armando Bacot. Bradshaw is a mega talent, as are two of Kentucky’s freshman guards, Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. But they are still freshmen. The Tar Heels are led by veterans like Bacot and 6-foot senior point guard R.J. Davis. That will be the difference. North Carolina (-1)
Jeff Goodman: You never know what you are gonna get from this Kentucky team, but I’ll lean with the experience of UNC. They are old, and the ’Cats are so inexperienced. North Carolina (-1)
Seth Davis: The Bearcats were on the cusp of consideration to be ranked in the Top 25, but they suffered their first loss at Xavier last Saturday, 84-79. So we’re still not quite sure how good Wes Miller’s squad is, but we’ll learn a lot more when they host a Flyers squad that is 7-2 despite losing its starting point guard, Malachi Smith, to a season-ending ACL tear before the start of the season. This game will be played at Cincinnati’s Heritage Bank Center, instead of the Bearcats’ traditional homecourt, Fifth Third Arena, but that’s as close to a home game as you can get for UC. The key battle will be in the post between UC’s Viktor Lahkin (14.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists per game), and UD’s DaRon Holmes II (16.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists). Dayton ranks 356th in the country in tempo, per KenPom, so I expect this to be a close game no matter who wins. Dayton (+4.5)
Jeff Goodman: I see this one coming down to the wire. Give me the Flyers and the points. Dayton (+4.5)
Seth Davis: The good news for Creighton is that Trey Alexander probably can’t play worse. The 6-foot-4 junior guard shot 2 for 13 (1 for 6 from three) in the Bluejays’ 79-64 loss at UNLV Wednesday night. The problem for the Bluejays isn’t that Alexander played so poorly so much as they didn’t have the defense or depth to overcome his subpar performance. UNLV scored 1.3 points per possession and made 10 of 22 from 3-point range. That’s a bad profile to have against an Alabama squad that leads the country in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and just made 19 three-pointers in last Saturday’s 92-86 loss to Purdue in Toronto. On the other hand, Alabama ranks 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency (down from third last year). First to 100 wins! Alabama (+5.5)
Jeff Goodman: Bounce. Back. Game. Creighton was embarrassed at UNLV. The best play, though, might be the over as there won’t be a lot of defense in this one. Creighton (-5.5)
Seth Davis: One of Tennessee’s primary weaknesses in the early going has been a lack of inside scoring, so the career-high 29-point performance from 6-foot-11 junior forward Jonas Aidoo in Tuesday’s 74-56 home win over Georgia Southern was a welcome development. Aidoo will face a steeper challenge on both ends from the floor while going up against N.C. State’s 6-foot-9 senior forward D.J. Burns, but I think he and the Vols can handle it. The Wolfpack have beaten every team they were supposed to beat (though they had to go to overtime to win at Boston College), and suffered two tolerable losses to BYU (neutral) and Ole Miss (road). They are one of the oldest teams in the county (14th in experience on KenPom), but I see no reason to believe they’ll be able to slow down the Tennessee Express. Tennessee (-9)
Jeff Goodman: Nine points is generally a lot for the Vols, but with Dalton Knecht I feel better about laying that many. Tennessee (-8.5)
Seth Davis: 3-6-1
Jeff Goodman: 7-2-1
Seth Davis: 8-11-1
Jeff Goodman: 10-9-1

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