College basketball transfer portal: Busting the myth about mid-major transfer guards – 247Sports

College basketball’s 2022-23 season was supposed to be “The Year of the Big Man” — and, in many ways, it was. Zach Edey was the unquestioned Player of the Year. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Drew Timme, Azuolas Tubelis, Adama Sanogo, Oscar Tshiebwe, Hunter Dickinson and Armando Bacot showcased their typical dominance. But, honestly, it was the year of the mid-major transfer guard. The numerous examples should eliminate any concern about adding a mid-major transfer guard in the 2023 transfer portal cycle.
UTEP transfer Souley Boum was Xavier’s leading scorer and the clubhouse leader for a hot second in the Big East Player of the Year race. Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek ended up passing Boum for Big East Player of the Year. (That’s former George Mason transfer, Tyler Kolek to you.) UConn was bolstered by mid-major transfer guards like East Carolina’s Tristen Newton and San Diego’s Joey Calcaterra on its way to the National Championship. Creighton was one of the best teams in the country thanks to the addition of South Dakota State’s Baylor Scheierman.
How about the Big 12? Toughest conference in the country, right?
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Mid-major transfer guards tore it up.
Little Rock transfer Markquis Nowell was phenomenal for new Kansas State coach Jerome Tang, and Texas’ best overall player was New Mexico State transfer Sir’Jabari Rice — not Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen or Tyrese Hunter.
Rice was named the Big 12’s sixth man of the year after averaging 13 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2 assists in just 25.3 minutes per game. Rice’s patented shot fake took souls around the country.
“It was no fun,” Texas coach Rodney Terry said when asked what it was like to play against Rice. “The minute we could add him to our roster, I’m like: ‘That’s the guy we need.’”
Jahmir Young (from Charlotte to Maryland) and Jalen Pickett (from Siena to Penn State) were the two best point guards in the Big Ten this past season. Ohio transfer Mark Sears moved to Alabama and became an instant impact rotation player. Chattanooga transfer Malachi Smith joined Gonzaga’s loaded backcourt and became the third-best player on an Elite Eight team by the end of the season.
Antonio Reeves (from Illinois State to Kentucky), Tyson Walker (from Northeastern to Michigan State) and Nelly Cummings (from Colgate to Pitt) are other examples of mid-major transfer guards who helped their respective teams make the NCAA Tournament. San Diego State doesn’t sniff a National Championship appearance without clutch buckets from Seattle transfer Darrion Trammell who eviscerated Alabama for 21 points in the Aztecs’ Sweet 16 upset win over Alabama.
Sure, there have been a few examples of mid-major guards who have struggled to be high-impact pieces at the next level. But the hit rate in the last two transfer portal cycles has been tremendous. The 2023 cycle projects to be no different.
Delaware transfer Jameer Nelson Jr. is a flawless fit with TCU. Tulane star Jalen Cook is off to LSU to get buckets. Pepperdine transfer Mike Mitchell Jr. should have every opportunity to shine with Minnesota. Iona transfer Walter Clayton Jr. was an enormous get for Florida coach Todd Golden. Ex-Wofford star Jackson Paveletzke shouldn’t have an issue carving out a role in Iowa State’s rotation. Illinois bolstered its rotation with Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask and Utah Valley product Justin Harmon.
If MythBusters’ star James Hyneman got ahold of the theory that mid-major guards are an iffy proposition at the high-major level, he’d blow that narrative to the moon.
There are six more big-time, mid-major guards who project to be major difference-makers next season.
Stats: 11.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5 APG
Taran Armstrong is one of the top pure point guards in the transfer portal. The 6-foot-6, 190-pound Australian dazzled as a freshman, totaling 6.3 assists per game. He owned the fourth-highest assist rate in the country, according to KenPom. Armstrong eviscerated San Jose State for 16 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds in just his fourth collegiate game. Even though his assist numbers dipped slightly in 2022-23, Armstrong remains one of the portal’s most-coveted assets. Creighton, Providence, Gonzaga and Xavier are the reported finalists for Armstrong. Armstrong has a jaw-dropping ability to navigate pick-and-rolls, and his elite size is a huge differentiator. Guard-friendly offenses like Creighton, Gonzaga and Xavier would allow Armstrong to put up gaudy numbers, and he’d be a flawless fit alongside Devin Carter, Bryce Hopkins and Kim English’s Friars.
Stats: 20.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.8 APG
Dalton Knecht deserves to be in the conversation as the best pure perimeter bucket-getter in the transfer portal. Sure, it was Northern Colorado, but Knecht owns a bunch of translatable traits that will show up in high-major basketball. Knecht is a former JUCO dog who wants nothing more than to prove himself at the next level. Knecht earned 138 pick-and-roll reps at Northern Colorado last season, but he wasn’t looking to dish. Knecht is wired to score, and he’s lethal as a catch-and-shoot assassin (41.8% from 3), off the dribble (79th percentile, according to Synergy) and at the rim (79th percentile, according to Synergy).
Knecht has big-time bounce and his rack attacks ended with vicious, tomahawk jams. Indiana, Oregon and North Carolina are among the main programs that have gained traction with the former Northern Colorado star. A big-time role would await Knecht at both Indiana and Oregon. He’d likely have to share the rock with Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis at UNC, but he could step into Caleb Love’s vacated role.
Stats: 21.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4 APG
Max Abmas knows how to put the orange ball in the round circle. Period. Abmas owns more than 2,500 career points and could crack the 3,000-point mark in 2023-24. Abmas is a career 38.8% 3-point sniper, and the former Oral Roberts star has drained at least 100 3-pointers in each of the last three seasons. He’s only 6-foot, 174 pounds, but Kansas State’s 5-foot-7 point guard Markquis Nowell provided a blueprint of how short guards can still be some of the biggest sensations in the NCAA Tournament. Abmas isn’t the shot-creator that Nowell is, but he owns similarly-deep range. Abmas can pull the trigger from the moment he steps foot inside halfcourt.
Abmas has boatloads of interest, but the Big 12 would seem to be his most-likely destination. Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas and everyone else would clear room if Abmas wanted to hop on board.
Stats: 15.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 3.9 APG
In late November, Javian McCollum got two tests on back-to-back nights against Power Six competition. He eviscerated Florida State for 18 points on just nine shots to go along with eight assists. The next day, he owned Ole Miss for 24 points, eight assists and four rebounds. Can the Siena transfer play at the high-major level? Check and mate. The top-40 transfer appears to be a major priority for guard-needy teams in the transfer portal. The 6-foot-2, 155-pound point guard shot 36% from 3-point range, 48% on 2s and 89% at the charity stripe. He also had a 29.8% assist rate.
Stats: 17.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.4 APG
Nick Timberlake has turned himself into one of the best shooters in the country. Two years ago, Timberlake shot 31% from 3-point range. This past season, Timberlake shredded the nets at a 41.6% clip. The Towson star shot an ungodly 49.6% from 3-point range during conference play. The Towson veteran transfer projects to be an easy role player for a really good team thanks to his phenomenal catch-and-shoot display. It’s no surprise that high-level programs like UConn, North Carolina and Kansas are in the mix. Timberlake shot 43% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season, which rated in the 90th percentile nationally.
Stats: 20.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.3 APG
Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada has made a nice living for himself absolutely dominating the CAA and every high-major team he goes up against, too. Kansas State, Alabama, Cincinnati and Florida State are the finalists for the two-time CAA Player of the Year. Estrada averaged 20.2 points, 4.3 assists and 5.5 rebounds in 2022-23.
Estrada elevated his overall game to new heights this past season. Estrada shot 38.2% on above-the-break 3s, 42.2% on off-the-dribble jumpers and 68.7% at the rim. Estrada is a true three-level scorer, and he repeatedly showed he was not afraid to stick his nose in the fan to rip down rebounds. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound point guard has one year of eligibility remaining.
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