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History of No. 8 vs No. 1 seeds in NBA playoffs, upsets, 3-1 comeback – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
The Milwaukee Bucks are staring down a 3-1 deficit in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, the fourth No. 1 seed to get put in that predicament by a No. 8 since the playoff format expanded to seven games for all rounds in 2003.
The good news is, yes, a top seed has overcome that deficit and won the series (handily in all three games, even). The bad news: the other three teams did not.
Here’s a look at the history of 3-1 deficits and eighth seeds staging first-round uprisings.
There is one example of a No. 1 seed going down by a 3-1 count and rallying to win. In the first year of the seven-game format for first-round series, the 2003 Pistons battled back against Orlando to prevail.
It was the first time the NBA had gone to the seven-game format for all rounds since 1974, though the 1974 playoffs featured just four teams per conference and essentially didn’t have a “first round” that we have now.
The Pistons-Magic first-round series in the Eastern Conference transpired the way the Bucks-Heat series has, with Orlando winning Game 1 in Auburn Hills and Detroit evening the series before the Magic won both Game 3 and Game 4 in Orlando.
Detroit won the final three games convincingly, including a 98-67 win in Game 5 and a 103-88 victory on the road in Game 6 before a 108-93 triumph to win the series.
Detroit went on to win a conference-semifinals series with Philadelphia but got swept by second-seeded New Jersey in the conference finals, 4-0.
More:‘It’s not over’: Bucks must overcome history, Jimmy Butler to rebound from 3-1 series deficit
If you want an even better example, consider the Houston Rockets in 1995, who bounced back from a 2-0 and 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference semifinals against the Phoenix Suns and went on to win the NBA championship as the No. 6 seed. Houston defeated San Antonio in the conference finals and swept Orlando in the NBA finals.
We recognize that it’s a little dicey if you’re consulting an example from when Giannis Antetokounmpo was less than 1 year old. Still, there are other examples of teams that went down 3-1 but battled back for the title.
The 1981 Boston Celtics also went down to Philadelphia by a 3-1 count in the Eastern Conference finals, then won the next three games by a combined five points (two two-point wins and a 91-90 win in Game 7). Boston went on to win the NBA title over Houston, 4-2.
If you want to go way back, the Boston Celtics went down 3-1 to Philly in the 1968 Eastern Division Finals, as well, but overcame that deficit and won the NBA title over Los Angeles, 4-2.
The 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers famously bounced back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA championship over the Golden State Warriors, led by a Herculean performance by LeBron James. The Warriors had posted the best record in NBA history that year (73-9).
Thus, there are four teams to battle back from a 3-1 deficit at any point in the postseason and go on to win the NBA title. In all, there are 13 examples of it happening in NBA history. That’s 4.8% of the time in series featuring a 3-1 lead at any point. So you’re saying there’s a chance…!
So nearly 38% of these occasions have taken place since 2015, which tells you it’s much more likely than it used to be.
In 2012, the Bulls won the first game of their series with No. 8 Philadelphia but then lost the next three games after reigning MVP guard Derrick Rose tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of Game 1. The Bulls still won Game 5 but then ceded the series, 4-2, with Andre Iguodala hitting clinching free throws in the final seconds of Game 6. Philly then took Boston to seven games in the next round before falling.
In 2011, the Memphis Grizzlies shocked the San Antonio Spurs, 4-2. Not only that, but San Antonio needed overtime at home to win Game 5, 110-103, before Memphis won Game 6 back at its place.
Memphis then pushed Oklahoma City to seven games in the next round before falling short.
In 2007, Golden State took down the Dallas Mavericks, 4-2, backed by an unforgettable crowd in Oakland. Dallas won 65 games that year and became the only 65-win team to ever not advance past the first round; the Mavs won Game 5 to prolong the series, 118-112, then got blown out in Game 6, 111-86. Golden State lost to Utah in the next round, 4-1.
Aside from the Pistons rallying back from a 3-1 deficit in 2003, it’s only happened three other times, but two of those teams went on to win the championship.
In 2008, Boston defeated Atlanta in Game 7, 99-65, to cap a series in which the home team won every game. The Celtics went on to win the title.
In 2014, both 1-8 matchups went the full seven games. Eighth-seeded Atlanta took a 3-2 series lead on Indiana but ultimately lost at home in Game 6, 95-88, and then suffered a 92-80 loss to the Pacers in Game 7. Indiana went as far as the conference finals before falling to second-seeded Miami.
That same year, San Antonio was pushed to the limit against Dallas. The eighth-seeded Mavericks topped the Spurs in Game 6, 113-111, but San Antonio won easily in the deciding Game 7, 119-96. Ironically, San Antonio never saw another seven-game series on its way to the NBA title.
Including the three times where a No. 1 seed lost to a No. 8, 12 first-round series have been settled in six games. That’s a total of 16 first-round series going to six or seven games; so 60% of first-round series since the changeover in 2003 end in four or five games.
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