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NBA Rookie Rankings: Why Chet Holmgren tops Victor Wembanyama for No. 1 spot – The Athletic
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We’re about a month into the NBA season, which means it’s time for the first 2023-24 edition of The Athletic’s Rookie Rankings.
To refresh: We rank the league’s top 15 rookies to this point, solely based on how they have performed as NBA players. These are not power rankings based on how they are doing at the time of the rankings, but rather full-season assessments of how they have played to this point.
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What do I look for when I rank players? Minutes and role matter. What is each rookie getting asked to do, and how often are they seeing the court? Are they being asked to create offense for their teams? Is their role limited, and how successful are they in that role? How successful is the team with them within that role? What is the degree of difficulty of said role? Is the player logging real minutes on a good team or eating up minutes on a bad team that doesn’t have anyone better?
In many ways, this is an art, not a science. The rankings involve examining numbers and analyzing a painstaking amount of tape, with the latter being more valued.
The structure is as follows: I rank the rookies, write about four of them in-depth, then explain the rest of the rankings with some notes. Three of the four to receive extended write-ups are my choices, and the fourth selection goes to the readers. Each week before the rookie rankings publish, I put out an informal social media poll asking who you want me to break down.
Folks: The rookie rankings come back this week.
As per usual, I let the readers pick one of the rookies that I write about as a People’s Choice.
What rookie do you want to see me write about for this week?
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) November 20, 2023
This week, the poll results ranked Detroit’s Ausar Thompson first, Washington’s Bilal Coulibaly second and Cleveland’s Craig Porter Jr. third. I was already planning to write about Thompson, so he and Coulibaly are both winners for this edition.
Note that I made overseas signings, like Sasha Vezenkov and Vasilije Micić, ineligible for these rankings because they’re professional veterans with a proven track record outside of the NBA.
I understand Holmgren and Wembanyama have been dealing with different circumstances. Holmgren is benefitting from spending a year on the sidelines rehabbing a foot injury, when he was able to get indoctrinated into the Thunder’s schemes and understand exactly what they want from him. Wembanyama, on the other hand, is learning on the fly as a teenager at the beginning of the Spurs’ rebuilding process. Holmgren is also playing with a franchise I consider to be the best incubator of young talent in the NBA; the Thunder place their prospects into the right roles for each player and don’t overextend them, allowing them to gain experience and minutes. It also helps that the Thunder, by and large, draft high-IQ players who don’t make a ton of mistakes.
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Regardless, this much is true: Holmgren has clearly been the better player of the two through the first month of their rookie seasons.
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Holmgren’s counting numbers (17.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.3 blocks per game) are strong, but he also brings an efficient approach to the table that belies his experience level. Holmgren so rarely takes what I consider to be a bad shot; he might benefit from being more adventurous and taking semi-contested shots given how accurate he’s been. Holmgren is making 55.7 percent of his shots in total, including 43.4 percent of his 3s and 87 percent of his free throws. It’s ridiculous to think he nearly was a 50/40/90 shooter in the first month of his NBA career.
Holmgren has been quite effective on defense. He is still adjusting to the speed of the game – there are times when he gets a bit turned around and he’s still learning to better position himself when defending ball screens. But for a rookie, he’s quite solid and polished. His anticipation is excellent, as he gets himself into positions where he can impact plays as a help defender and when covering space. He cuts off driving angles and passes with his length, and has blocked over two shots per game.
I made a video breaking down Holmgren’s star turn against the Golden State Warriors last weekend, where he went for 36 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.
Beyond that, it’s clear Holmgren embodies every attribute the Thunder have valued in its roster-building over the past four years: terrific positional size, elite-level on-court processing ability, skill set within their role and competitiveness. Don’t sleep on that last bit either: Around Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and others battle hard every day. There’s never a day off playing for the Thunder. Their culture is real, and it’s why they’ve turned around their rebuild faster than other teams who started around the same time.
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To be clear: Wembanyama has also been quite good to start the season. Per Basketball-Reference.com, the five-man list of players who have ever averaged at least 18 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game in their rookie seasons is a who’s-who of all-time greats: David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Alonzo Mourning. O’Neal was the only player younger than Wembanyama in this group. All five of them went for 20 and 10 as a rookie, too, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Wembanyama reach those numbers by the end of the season.
Wembanyama has been required to create his own offense for large swaths of the first month, in large part due to Gregg Popovich’s decision to convert forward Jeremy Sochan into the team’s starting point guard. The Spurs’ offense has struggled to find any degree of efficiency, as the team is 29th in points scored per 100 possessions. Their offensive rating is actually a bit worse than that with Wembanyama on the floor there, (102.9 when he’s on, 105.4 when he’s off), but it’s clear that sharing minutes with Sochan at the point drives those numbers down. Per PBPStats.com, the Spurs are posting a 118.1 offensive rating with Wembanyama on the court and Sochan off. When both are on the court together, that mark plummets to 99.1. The presence of Tre Jones, the team’s one natural point guard who has been coming off the bench, also makes a big difference. When Wembanyama and Sochan play without Jones, the Spurs’ offensive rating descends to 95.6. When Jones is out there with Wembanyama, but not Sochan, the team posts a 116 offensive rating. When Jones shares the court with both players, that number jumps to 120.5.
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Sochan is not a bad player, and I’m a fan of his game in general. But he’s a square peg being asked to fit into a round hole. He’s simply not a point guard, and the Spurs are struggling to effectively run their offense when he’s playing that position. That has forced Wembanyama, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson to take a lot of bail-out shots with the clock about to expire. You don’t see many late-clock post-ups or isolations from Holmgren because the Thunder are a well-oiled machine with an elite offensive player in Gilgeous-Alexander and others such as Jalen Williams to run the show.
So far, Wembanyama has struggled when asked to perform those difficult tasks. He’s only attempted 40 shots at the rim in half-court situations over his first 14 games, a remarkably low number for a player who is 7-foot-4. Teammates aren’t creating many of those looks for Wembanyama, but it’s not entirely their fault because he is too easily bumped off his path when rolling to the rim. Wembanyama’s lack of strength can be jarring at times. Sacramento Kings shooting guard Kevin Huerter is able to push him away from the block and bother him on this post-up. With all due respect to Huerter, he’s not exactly the picture of NBA strength.
Plays like these result in a lot of contested pull-up jumpers. Wembanyama has taken 100 jump shots in half-court situations, and only 20 of them (20 percent) were unguarded catch-and-shoot attempts, per Synergy. Holmgren, on the other hand, has taken just 58 half-court jumpers, with 25 of them (43 percent) being unguarded catch-and-shoots. There are also flaws Wembanyama should simply excise. He’s posting 3.5 turnovers per game, and a portion of those are careless giveaways.
But the two great rookie bigs in this class are simply playing different games. One only has to take 10 shots per game and fill a role. The other is being asked to post a superstar-esque usage rate of more than 30 and create his own shots with a cramped floor.
Spurs fans have every reason to remain extremely enthusiastic about their generational prospect. Wembanyama’s rookie production is historic, and it says something that he is capable of creating these shots in a way few are. He just needs to become more consistent with his jumper; hopefully, for his sake, he can get a few more open catch-and-shoot chances. There are games where everything comes together in an utterly tantalizing package, like when he dropped 29 points, nine rebounds, four blocks and four assists on an awesome Minnesota team in early November, or the 38-point masterpiece he had against Phoenix on Nov. 2. His 19-point, 13-rebound, eight-block game against Memphis last Saturday offered a glimpse into his two-way potential, even as he struggled to hit shots. Wembanyama is certainly on his way.
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But there are a few things he and the Spurs must clean up as each continues to grow.
The Detroit Pistons’ No. 5 overall selection has given the NBA some of its best highlights of the early season. He’s a bundle of athleticism and energy, particularly on defense, where he’s a monster help man who constantly rotates to generate blocks and steals that create transition opportunities. Beyond the stat sheet, Thompson is an impact defender already with his ability to scramble around and put out fires.
Still, Thompson’s block and steal numbers put him in historic company. Since 1980, only six rookies have averaged at least 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals per game, per Basketball Reference. Five of them are a who’s-who of the best defensive players in their eras: David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Chris Webber, Andrei Kirilenko and Anthony Davis. (The sixth is Nerlens Noel.) Only 15 players have ever posted at least one steal and 1.5 blocks per game as rookies.
On offense, Thompson is constantly trying to find extra possessions for his team via offensive rebounds or open pathways to the rim with his cuts. The last rookie wing to average at least 3.5 offensive rebounds per game is Marques Johnson for the 1977-78 Milwaukee Bucks. Overall, he’s fifth in offensive rebounds per game, surrounded by centers on the leaderboard. The next closest perimeter player is Scottie Barnes in 30th place. Thompson also moves the ball decisively, averaging 3.4 assists per game.
All of this explains why he ranks so highly on this list. He’s disruptive across the board and is rated as one of the best rookies in many advanced metrics.
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I don’t think we’ve ever seen a rookie quite like Thompson. The aforementioned Kirilenko, who made the All-Star team with Utah in 2004, is the closest comparison, and Thompson is a little bit ahead of him as a rebounder and passer at this stage of their careers.
However, some of the other pieces of Thompson’s game prevent his production from translating to team success and the players around him.
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Shooting was the biggest concern with Thompson entering the season, and that hasn’t changed. He has made just four of his 29 3-point attempts entering Wednesday’s games, and his misses aren’t run-of-the-mill ones, either. He seems to air ball a couple of shots per week, and some of his errant shots come nowhere close to going in. As a result, opponents don’t feel any need to guard him when he’s outside of the 3-point line, reducing the space Cade Cunningham and other rollers have to get to the rim. Detroit tries to counteract these strategies by putting Thompson in the dunker spot or have him run the baseline regularly, but that naturally brings another help defender into the paint.
Check out this sequence, when Detroit left Thompson on the floor in a possession that offered a final chance to tie the score against the Denver Nuggets. Because Thompson is not a threat, his man, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, is already in position to help when Cunningham drives by his own man. It wouldn’t have mattered if Thompson was in the dunker spot underneath the hoop, as he was here, or beyond the three-point line in the opposite corner. Caldwell-Pope was going to help off him regardless, and that’s the problem.
It’s worth noting that Monty Williams’ suspect lineup choices this season have compounded Thompson’s weaknesses. Until this week, the Pistons’ coach has started a non-shooter in Killian Hayes, as well as non-shooting big men such as Jalen Duren or Marvin Bagley III, alongside Thompson. Opponents are constantly able to collapse the paint; the Pistons, Grizzlies and Blazers are the only three teams in the bottom five of the NBA in field goal percentage from the restricted area and in the non-restricted area portions of the paint, per the NBA’s stats site. Each have significant woes from beyond the 3-point line – the Pistons are 29th in 3-point attempt rate, the Blazers are last in 3-point percentage and the Grizzlies are 29th in that category. Those three teams have a combined record of 9-35.
If perimeter shooting was Thompson’s only weakness, he’d rank third on this list. But it’s not. Thompson’s handle is still extremely loose and he has struggled to dribble in any sort of crowded area. Thompson is the only rookie wing in the last 30 years to average at least 2.6 turnovers while posting a usage rate below 20 percent. Turnovers are an epidemic in Detroit, with Cunningham leading the league at 4.8 and Duren up there at 2.6. The issue seems structural, considering everyone who handles the ball in Detroit is coughing the ball up at a high rate, but Thompson’s own skill deficiencies are also real contributors to the problem.
We may be better able to judge Thompson soon. The Pistons just got Isaiah Livers back from injury, and Bojan Bogdanović should follow soon. Once those shooters are back in the fold, we should at least get a better idea of how impactful players like Thompson, Jaden Ivey and Cunningham can be.
Until then, Pistons fans should take solace in the joys Thompson has brought this season, even with his flaws.
Like the Pistons, the Wizards have struggled immensely this season. But Coulibaly has been a source of joy in a desert of good news, as the 19-year-old French wing has been ready to play from day one. I broke one of his preseason games down after seeing how impressive he was then.
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He showcases all of those attributes on this possession on Luka Dončić last week. He cuts off Dončić in transition, closes out on a potential pull-up, crowds his space, whips around the on-ball screen while going under and contests Doničić’s shot. The sequence beautifully distilled his capabilities, even as he’s still growing into his strength and frame.
Off the ball, Coulibaly is great at staying big and long, covering up the opposite side with his length and making it harder for opposing teams to move the ball. He hasn’t racked up quite as many deflections as expected, but his length remains a deterrent across the court. And while he makes rotational mistakes borne out of aggression from time to time, he has the ability to recover and still make an impact on the play.
Coulibaly’s offense is much more hit or miss. He aggressively leaks out in transition and can hit an occasional spot jumper, but his 12.8 usage rate indicates a player who goes long stretches without touching the ball. He’s made 18 of his 41 3s, though I’m not sure that conversion rate will last considering his free-throw percentage is low. It takes time for him to load into the shot, limiting his volume of attempts, and his form features a lot of extraneous movement at the top of the shot with a kind of split-legged finish. Opponents don’t treat him like a shooter, sagging off him often to help other players. Outside of shooting, Coulibaly is still exploring the limits of his skill set when given the opportunity to dribble, though he does cover ground quickly due to his long strides.
Coulibaly’s next steps involve improving off the bounce and attacking the paint more often, in addition to speeding up his shot release to get more 3s off. If he can do both of those things, defenders will be forced to actually guard him, rather than sagging so far off. He can also be better at making more timely cuts to the rim and crashing the offensive glass, though it appears the Wizards’ coaching staff is not making the latter a team-wide priority.
Regardless, Coulibaly has shown he is much more ready to play at the NBA level than one would expect, considering he really only played half of a season of high-end hoops last year in the French League.
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Dereck Lively II is No. 3 because I value contributing to a winning team. Lively has been starting for a 10-5 Dallas team since the second game of the regular season and has helped hold up their defense in his minutes. Dallas is surrendering nearly four fewer points better per 100 possessions to opponents when Lively is on the court. When Lively and Luka Dončić play together, Dallas gives up about 115.5 points per 100 possessions, equivalent to the 22nd-ranked team in the league. When Dončić is on and Lively is off, Dallas gives up 122.6 points per 100, which would be last in the league by two full points. Lively plays his role, protects the rim and is continuing to develop chemistry with Dončić and Kyrie Irving as a rim runner in ball screens.
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Dereck Lively II outplays Victor Wembanyama and gives Mavericks a lot to think about
Brandon Miller comes in at No. 4 ahead of Thompson because he’s taken fewer things off the court than Thompson thus far. Miller has been solid in the way most expected him to be entering the league. His jump shot is still hit-or-miss, but he’s comfortable attacking closeouts, driving and using ball screens to get into the midrange areas of the floor. Defensively, Charlotte is slotting him on the opposing team’s best perimeter player, which speaks volumes despite his middling performance in such situations. Overall, I’ve been impressed by Miller’s play, even if his game continues to have many of the same warts as it did at Alabama. Most notably, he continues to demonstrate little ability to pressure the basket, as he’s only attempted 15 half-court shot attempts at the rim in 13 games.
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Jordan Hawkins versus Cason Wallace at Nos. 6 and 7 is a battle of contrasts. Hawkins’ shooting has been essential for the New Orleans Pelicans this season with Trey Murphy injured all season and CJ McCollum missing time recently with a partially collapsed lung. Hawkins is averaging 13 points per game, flying around off-ball screens and occupies defenders’ attention with the threat of his jumper. Pels coach Willie Green has even used creative sets with Hawkins screening for Zion Williamson, much in the same way former Pelicans coach Stan Van Gundy used sharpshooter JJ Redick in the 2020-21 season. Hawkins is firing up 7.5 3-point attempts per game, making 35.4 percent of them, and has shown some ability to make shots off the dribble and deliver smart passes to keep the ball moving. But the Pelicans have needed to hide him on defense, and he can’t finish all that well inside when he attacks closeouts. Wallace, on the other hand, is thriving in a much more limited role in Oklahoma City. The Thunder primarily use him in ways that don’t involve the ball, from screening and short-rolling, to spotting up from distance to even guarding the opposing team’s best player from time to time. But with established players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander around him, Wallace is asked to stay within himself much more. If I had to pick one player to have on my team moving forward, I’d pick Wallace. But I think Hawkins has made a slightly more important contribution to New Orleans so far.
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Each member of the next group of Coulibaly, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Marcus Sasser has been solid and efficient in their roles. Sasser versus Keyonte George is a fun discussion point. George has been valuable for the Utah Jazz since he entered the starting lineup, dishing out 7.6 assists over his first seven games as their lead ballhandler. For a team that desperately needed backcourt playmaking and strong decision-making, George has been a godsend. Those seven games represent the best stretch either of the two have put together this season. But George is struggling to score effectively, and I didn’t love his first eight games. Sasser has the leg up for now, but I bet George will spike up these rankings in the near future.
Toumani Camara has been one of the three best defenders in this class, consistently taking on tough wing assignments and earning his minutes in Portland. He recently entered the starting lineup ahead of Matisse Thybulle because of his defensive talent and willingness to crash around the court. He isn’t ranked higher, though, because he’s been a net negative on offense and it’s unclear what exactly his role will be on that end. He’s not really a shooter, and he’s not quite explosive enough athletically to consistently drift to the dunker spot underneath the hoop and finish. Still, for a rookie who was taken 52nd overall and acquired by Portland this summer as a throw-in to the Damian Lillard trade, Camara has been a huge win.
Camara is ranked ahead of Portland’s higher-profile rookie, Scoot Henderson, who played four and a half games before an ankle injury. Henderson struggled in those minutes, mostly because his final product was left wanting. Having watched all of Henderson’s minutes so far, I thought he got to where he wanted almost at will on the court, which was to be expected. His issues are twofold. First, he’s experienced the real struggle of a teenager adjusting to the speed of the NBA after coming from the G League. Henderson’s turnovers have been high, and he’s been victimized by poor spacing and a lack of chemistry in ball screens with Deandre Ayton, who refuses to consistently roll all the way to the rim regardless of the location of their two-man actions. Second, Henderson hasn’t made shots yet. He went just 2-of-21 from 3 in his four games before the injury, and while he looked confident and willing to fire, the ball hasn’t been going through the hoop. The game will slow down for Henderson over time, and his passing already looks to be at a high level, having dished out seven assists in his last two games. However, he must prove he can be a threat from 3-point distance to reach his ceiling. (Also, he has to curtail his fouling. It seemed like he made it a real point to prove he could defend, but that’s only resulted in overaggression and unnecessary fouls).
Henderson returned from the injury Wednesday against Utah, so I’ll likely do a full analysis of his game in our next edition.
(Top photo: Logan Riely / NBAE via Getty Images)
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Sam Vecenie covers the NBA Draft, college basketball and the NBA for The Athletic. His podcast, the Game Theory Podcast, is regularly ranked among the top podcasts on iTunes. Previously, he worked for CBS Sports, SB Nation, Sporting News, and Vice. Follow Sam on Twitter @Sam_Vecenie
