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NBA Playoffs 2023 seed projections, predictions, probabilities, odds – The Arizona Republic
We are down to the final few days of the 2022-23 NBA regular season and a lot is still on the line for the NBA playoffs, including several playoff berths and the seeding for several teams, who are trying to avoid playing in the NBA’s play-in tournament before the playoffs.
Who could get each seed in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference?
Here’s a look at the probability for each seed entering Saturday’s games, based on simulations run by basketball-reference.com.
The Top 6 seeds are all locked up in the East, with the Milwaukee Bucks at No. 1, the Boston Celtics at No. 2, the Philadelphia 76ers at No. 3, the Cleveland Cavaliers at No. 4, the New York Knicks at No. 5 and the Brooklyn Nets at No. 6.
The Miami Heat are the No. 7 seed for the start of the play-in tournament in the East, with the Atlanta Hawks at No. 8, the Toronto Raptors at No. 9 and the Chicago Bulls at No. 10.
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In first round seeding projections, basketball-reference.com gives the Hawks a 51.6% chance to get the No. 7 seed and a 23.2% shot at landing the No. 7 seed. The Heat are given a 48.4% shot at the No. 7 seed and a 23.5% shot at the No. 8 seed.
The Raptors have a 27.3% shot at No. 8 and the Bulls have a 26% shot at No. 8
The Bulls are locked in at No. 10.
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This conference has a lot more still on the line.
The Denver Nuggets have the top seed locked up in the West and the Suns have the No. 4 seed also locked up in that conference, but a lot of other seeds are still left to be decided.
The Top 4 seeds are locked up in the West, with the Denver Nuggets at No. 1, Memphis Grizzlies at No. 2, Sacramento Kings at No. 3 and Phoenix Suns at No. 4.
It gets complicated after that.
The Golden State Warriors currently have a 45.1% shot at the No. 5 seed, according to Basketball Reference, with the Los Angeles Clippers at 36.5%. The New Orleans Pelicans are at 13.3% for that seed and the Los Angeles Lakers are at 5%.
The Warriors are given a 37.4% shot at the No. 6 seed, a 9% shot at No. 7 and a 4.3% shot at No. 8.
The Clippers are 21.7% for No. 6, 18.1% for No. 7 and 10.7% for No. 8.
The Pelicans are 26% for the No. 6 seed, 25.5% for No. 7 and 15.4% for No. 8, while the Lakers are 13.5% for No. 6, 35.4% for No. 7 and 21.1% for No. 8.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 1.4% chance to get the No. 6 seed, a 12% chance at No. 7 and a 22% chance at No. 8.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 26.6% chance to end up as the No. 8 seed, according to the projections.
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Odds for seeds before the NBA play-in tournament give the Warriors an 82.5% shot at a Top 6 seed, a 7.8% shot at No. 7, and a 9.6% chance at No. 8.
They give the Clippers a 58.2% shot at a Top 6 seed, a 28.3% chance at No. 7, an 8.9% shot at No. 8 and a 4.5% shot at No. 9.
The Pelicans are at 39.3% for a Top 6 seed, 14.8% for No. 7, 32.4% for No. 8 and 13.5% for No. 9.
The Lakers are at 18.5% for a Top 6 seed, 41.3% for No. 7, 31.2% for No. 8 and 9% for No. 9.
The Timberwolves are at 1.4% for a Top 6 berth, 7.7% for No. 7,17.8% for No. 8 and 73.1% for No. 9.
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The Thunder are locked in to the No. 10 seed in the West’s play-in tournament.
Buckle up, it could be a wild last couple of days in the NBA.
Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.
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