Sports
Where we agree and disagree with KenPom's initial MW basketball … – Nevada Sports Net
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Saturday's Nevada-Utah State football game will air on Nevada Sports Net. Kickoff is set for noon Saturday in Logan, Utah.
by Chris Murray
I posted my preseason Mountain West and preseason AP Top 25 basketball ballots last week, so we must be getting close to the start of the college basketball season. How close? Ken Pomeroy released his preseason metrics over the weekend, which is a national holiday for college basketball fans. Here is how KenPom's preseason rankings among Mountain West schools shook out, with their national rank listed first, offensive and defensive ranks in parenthesis and last year's end-of-season ranks after that.
29. San Diego State (offense 50, defense 12) — 14 last season
46. New Mexico (offense 29, defense 72) — 66 last season
63. Boise State (offense 51, defense 70) — 37 last season
67. Nevada (offense 71, defense 66) — 62 last season
74. Colorado State (offense 39, defense 122) — 110 last season
77. UNLV (offense 63, defense 95) — 95 last season
100. Fresno State (offense 163, defense 75) — 143 last season
101. Utah State (offense 113, defense 103) — 28 last season
157. Air Force (offense 207, defense 110) — 147 last season
171. San Jose State (offense 171, defense 166) — 97 last season
214. Wyoming (offense 197, defense 233) — 162 last season
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Pomeroy's rankings are based on returning player/transfer addition production and are used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, so they hold far more value than my preseason MW and AP Top 25 ballots, which hold exactly zero value. But here is where we disagree with KenPom with a blow-by-blow look at each team, in order of the KenPom rankings.
San Diego State: I have the Aztecs 17th on my preseason AP Top 25; KenPom has them 29th. SDSU lost five rotation players this offseason, so there's reason for skepticism despite me being more bullish on the Aztecs.
New Mexico: I have New Mexico third on my ballot to KenPom's second in the MW. We all know the Lobos can score, but KenPom is forecast strong improvement on defense, the team's weak link thus far under Richard Pitino.
Boise State: Not only do I have the Broncos winning the MW, but I also put Boise State on my preseason Top 25 in the last spot. KenPom has the Broncos 63rd in the nation, so that's a massive difference in opinion.
Nevada: We both have the Pack finishing fourth in the MW, with KenPom forecasting a mild step back (from 62nd to 67th) That would be disappointing for Nevada, which overachieved last year's preseason KenPom rank of 132.
Colorado State: I have CSU sixth in the MW compared to KenPom's fifth, although his No. 5 and No. 6 teams (CSU and UNLV) are nearly identical. I have those two teams flopped with UNLV a little ahead of CSU.
UNLV: KenPom has UNLV slightly behind CSU (I'm the reverse), but it's interesting he doesn't see much difference between Nevada and CSU/UNLV whereas I'd drop those latter two teams a tier below the Wolf Pack.
Fresno State: I have the Bulldogs ninth in the MW to KenPom's seventh, and KenPom has Fresno State as a top-100 team in the nation. That'd be a great result Justin Hutson, whose enters the last season in his contract.
Utah State: This is KenPom's biggest forecasted drop, which makes sense as the Aggies return exactly zero points from last season. Utah State was 28th in KenPom last year and enters 101st this season, not bad considering the huge personnel losses.
Air Force: KenPom has Air Force one spot ahead of me and is bullish on the Falcons' defense, which he ranks 110th in the nation (eighth in the MW, a defensive-oriented league).
San Jose State: I had SJSU eighth on my ballot to KenPom's 10th. He sees major regression for the Spartans, who lost MW player of the year Omari Moore to the NBA. After SJSU finished 97th in the MW last year, he sees a drop to 171st.
Wyoming: The Cowboys finished last in the MW last season and KenPom has them there again this year (so do I). Wyoming is the only sub-175 MW team in the preseason KenPom rankings slotting in at 214th.
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We'll see how these teams fare over the next five months. Specifically with Nevada, KenPom has the Wolf Pack offense (71st in the nation) and defense (66th in the nation) similarly ranked. Last season, those ranks were 58th in offense and 71st in defense. Nevada believes it will be much improved defensively over last season, and the quickest way to overachieve these preseason expectations would be to turn that into reality while not slipping offensively despite the losses of starters Will Baker (LSU) and Darrion Williams (Texas Tech) to transfer.
