The Weakest Link in Every NBA Team's Starting Lineup – Bleacher Report

Now that the 2023 NBA offseason is essentially wrapped up, it’s time to dig into each team’s starting five.
There are a few question marks here and there, and a few coaches will inevitably surprise with some decisions in September and October, but we can predict plenty of lineups with some confidence.
And by extension, we can identify (or at least project) the so-called weak link in each group. In some cases, that description won’t feel fair. A few lineups, like that of the championship-winning Denver Nuggets, feel perfectly balanced and loaded with talent. But the mission here necessitates tough calls.
For other teams, the potential issue practically jumps off the screen.
Whether obvious or not, each of the 30 starting lineup’s weakest links can be found below.

Projected Starters: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey and Clint Capela
If Hunter is going to have a breakout, it feels like it needs to happen soon.
Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices) has pegged Hunter as a below-average player in three of his four seasons (with the lone above-zero season coming in 2020-21).
He’s a slightly below-average three-point shooter for his career, and there just aren’t many contributions (at least ones measured by the box score) beyond that.
If he was playing at or near All-Defense level on the other end of the floor, lack of rebounding, passing and scoring efficiency wouldn’t be as big a deal, but he’s not doing that either.
Without some steps forward in any of the above categories in 2023-24, he’ll likely be the weak link in this starting five.

Projected Starters: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porziņģis and Al Horford (or Robert Williams III)
There’s an argument to start Malcolm Brogdon at the 2 (and over either of the traditional bigs) and move everyone else down a spot. That lineup would be a nightmare for opposing defenses, but Horford started every game he played last season. And Williams III started more than half his 2022-23 appearances.
Despite coach Joe Mazzulla’s hesitance to use jumbo, two-big lineups last season, starting Porziņģis and burying one of Horford or Williams as the third string center feels unlikely.
And whichever one starts alongside KP will almost certainly be the weak link in this starting five. But this is one of those situations where the term “weak” is relative.
Horford is 37 years old, and Williams has struggled with durability throughout his career, but both are good players who’ll raise the Celtics’ defensive ceiling.
They’re just not on the same level as three players who’ll contend for All-Star nods in 2023-24 (Porziņģis, Brown and Tatum) and one of the game’s best defensive guards in Derrick White.

Projected Starters: Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith (or Royce O’Neale) and Nic Claxton
O’Neale started 53 games for the Brooklyn Nets last season, but Finney-Smith took that role after a flurry of moves remade the roster.
DFS will likely maintain that spot into 2023-24, and despite being a solid three-and-D forward, he’s almost certainly the weak link in this group.
Bridges and Johnson both proved to be capable of more with Brooklyn than they were given an opportunity to show with the Phoenix Suns. Claxton broke out as a high-end rim-protector and finisher. And Dinwiddie, despite some inconsistency as a scorer, has done a solid job piloting the offense in each of his last two stops with Brooklyn.
That leaves Finney-Smith to deal with challenging defensive assignments and be mostly a catch-and-shoot threat on the other end.
And again, he’s solid in those areas. He just happens to be the fifth guy in what figures to be a strong starting five.

Projected Starters: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges and Mark Williams
P.J. Washington is still on the market as a restricted free agent. If he returns to the Charlotte Hornets, and given Steve Clifford’s old-school approach, there’s a chance Miller doesn’t start at the outset of the season.
But right now, we’ll assume that the No. 2 pick is in the lineup. And for at least the first few months of the season, it’ll be hard for him to make a positive impact.
That shouldn’t come as a surprise. Rookies often struggle early on. And each of the other starters listed above have had moments (or entire seasons) of good (to great) play in the NBA. Even Williams averaged 11.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 25.6 minutes over his last 20 games in 2022-23.
While Miller learns the ropes, he’ll often be carried by the rest of this group.

Projected Starters: Alex Caruso, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams and Nikola Vučević
Williams’ career and statistical profile is pretty similar to that of De’Andre Hunter.
He’s a solid three-point shooter (at 41.4 percent for his career, he’s actually comfortably better than Hunter) and should be able to guard multiple positions, but the lack of ancillary contributions is at least a little troubling.
And like most of the others detailed so far, Williams is a cog in a lineup that features plenty of talent.
The pieces may fit together for little more than mediocrity over the last couple years, but all four of the starters provide plenty on an individual level.
Perhaps if Williams can develop into a gap-filler who improves the fit between everyone else, he can shake this designation.

Projected Starters: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen
Strus is another player who’s sort of here by default.
Despite a significant drop in effective field-goal percentage in 2022-23, Strus has solid career numbers. He’s averaged 10.0 points while shooting 59.5 percent on twos and 37.1 percent from three.
And he won’t be asked to do much more than that for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who fill out the rest of this lineup with All-Stars at each position.
As a dedicated floor spacer playing off Garland, Mitchell, Mobley and Allen, he makes a ton of sense. And he isn’t likely to jump anyone in the pecking order.

Projected Starters: Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr., Grant Williams and Dwight Powell
Powell is top 20 in Dallas Mavericks history in both minutes played and games started. Over the last nine years (yes, nine years), he’s sort of become an institution for the Mavs.
But there’s a reason Dallas has reportedly been interested in Clint Capela this offseason.
Powell plays hard and limits his shot selection almost entirely to attempts around the rim, but he’s now 32 and has never been much of a rim protector or defensive anchor.
Despite a relatively active offseason in which they added Dante Exum, Williams, Seth Curry and Richaun Holmes (who could potentially start over Powell), it doesn’t feel like the Mavericks are done. Some kind of upgrade at the 5 could happen between now and February.

Projected Starters: Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić
Identifying anyone in this group as a weak link doesn’t make a ton of sense. If we’re continuing the chain analogy, they don’t get much stronger than this one.
Denver was plus-12.7 points per 100 possessions (and a league-best plus-201 total) when all five of the above were on the floor in 2022-23.
The pieces of this puzzle fit almost perfectly together, and that includes Caldwell-Pope. If forced to choose, though, he gets the nod.
KCP ably fills his role as a three-point shooter and willing defender, but he’ll likely be fifth among the starters in both points and rebounds per game. And Porter Jr. may be the only member of the group who’ll hand out fewer assists.

Projected Starters: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Bojan Bogdanović and James Wiseman
The Detroit Pistons have at least two other options that might make more sense at the 5, but Wiseman started the last 22 games of 2022-23 there.
So, it feels like they’ll give the 22-year-old former No. 2 pick in a contract year a chance to prove his worth.
Of all the young players here, though, Wiseman seems to have the least discoverable upside.
Yes, he’s still young and moves pretty well for a seven-footer, but Wiseman often looks lost doing anything other than diving to the rim in the pick-and-roll. And he’s actively hurt his teams’ defenses when he’s available. It’s tough to recover from getting that kind of defense from a big man.
Over the course of his short career, his teams are a staggering minus-13.9 points per 100 possessions when Wiseman plays and plus-0.2 when he doesn’t.

Projected Starters: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney
Chris Paul has played 1,363 regular and postseason games in the NBA. He’s started every single one. So, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Steve Kerr keep that streak alive and start an ultra-small lineup.
Giving up on last season’s starters might be just as drastic for a team presumably in a title hunt.
The Golden State Warriors were an eye-popping plus-22.1 points per 100 possessions with Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and Looney on the floor. That lineup was largely responsible for a championship in 2022.
Like Denver’s group, it doesn’t really have a weak link. But if we have to settle on one, it’s Looney. He’s an underrated passer and can be a dominant rebounder, but he doesn’t provide loads of production, and he seems like the obvious candidate to be potentially replaced by CP3.

Projected Starters: Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün
Perhaps the easiest call of the exercise so far, the Houston Rockets will feature plenty of youth in the starting five this season, but all of Green, Smith Jr. and Şengün figure to be more reliable than Brooks on the offensive end.
Among the 67 players who take as many shots per game as Brooks over the last 10 years, he’s tied for 61st in effective field-goal percentage.
Few players combine confidence with inaccuracy quite like Brooks. And that means he’ll shoot the Rockets out of a handful of games this season.
Of course, his defense and the four-year, $86 million contract he signed all but ensures he’ll start, but any hint of development from the younger players above means he’ll also be this lineup’s weak link.

Projected Starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield, Obi Toppin and Myles Turner
This one is open to some other predictions. Bennedict Mathurin could make his way into the starting five, but paying Brown over $20 million to come off the bench feels weird.
Rick Carlisle could get extra adventurous and start rookie Jarace Walker, but the Indiana Pacers should want to see what they have in the recently acquired Obi Toppin.
And in that scenario, the bouncy Toppin is likely the weak link.
Haliburton and Turner could compete for All-Star spots. Hield is an all-time great shooter. And Brown just proved his playoff bona fides on the way to a title.
Even if Toppin, whose career-high scoring average is 9.0 points, has a breakout campaign, he could pretty easily be seen as the No. 5 in this group.

Projected Starters: Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac
We could apply the argument used for Dillon Brooks to Westbrook. Zubac’s lack of volume as an offensive player or versatility as a defender could put him in the mix. Even lack of availability could point to George or Leonard.
But the weakest link in the Los Angeles Clippers starting five probably has to be Morris, who is essentially the mid-30s version of Atlanta’s De’Andre Hunter or Chicago’s Patrick Williams.
In 2022-23, Morris averaged 11.2 points and shot a respectable 36.4 percent from three, but he’s entering his age-34 season and has given little indication he can provide much more than somewhat inconsistent jump shots.

Projected Starters: D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura and Anthony Davis
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jarred Vanderbilt start at the 4, but lineups with James and Davis should feature as much shooting as possible, and Hachimura obviously brings more of that than Vanderbilt.
Still, Hachimura doesn’t provide the playmaking of Russell, Reaves or LeBron. And he certainly won’t move the needle defensively like Davis.
In this role, he’d be little more than a floor spacer. That’s obviously important, but others in the lineup clearly check more boxes.

Projected Starters: Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, John Konchar, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams
This one’s obviously temporary. Once Ja Morant’s suspension is over, Konchar will head back to the bench, and the answer to this question will probably be Smart or Adams.
But for now, as solid as Konchar is as a rebounder, defender and occasional playmaker, he’s clearly the weak link in a group that includes two potential All-Stars (Bane and Jackson Jr.), the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year (Smart) and one of the most relentless offensive rebounders in NBA history (Adams).

Projected Starters: Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo
Predicting the Miami Heat’s starters is tricky. Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid to experiment, and the departures of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus means there are holes to be filled.
But considering the fact that Love started 18 of Miami’s 23 playoff games in 2023 (including each of the last four), it’s fairly safe to assume he’ll occupy one of those spots.
If he does, the 35-year-old big man isn’t likely to spend a ton of time with that starting unit.
He averaged 18.0 minutes in the postseason, as the Heat typically opted for smaller, faster and rangier defensive options for the bulk of the minutes at the 4.
Those options might look even better in 2023-24, with Love continuing to age into his mid-30s.

Projected Starters: Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez
This is another example of a player who’s here by little to no fault of his own.
Allen is a solid floor spacer who’s averaged 10.4 points and 2.1 threes, while shooting 40.1 percent from deep over the last four seasons. And while he isn’t likely to ever contend for an All-Defense nod, he at least competes on that end.
He just happens to be surrounded by one of the best starting lineups in basketball. Holiday is a perennial All-Defense contender. Antetokounmpo is a mainstay in MVP debates. And if health permits, Middleton and Lopez could both push for All-Star nods this season.

Projected Starters: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert
You could probably argue for McDaniels in this spot, given his career scoring average of 9.6 points, but he shot 39.8 percent from deep last season and may be the team’s best defender.
Going into his fourth season as a 23-year old, he could be on track for a breakout campaign.
So instead, we’ll go with the steady-handed Conley, who turns 36 in October.
At the end of last season, Conley showed that he can still be a stabilizing force for a younger team like the Timberwolves, but his age could start to show a bit more on the defensive end and his attempts to finish around the rim.
And he’s also in a lineup that features three potential All-Stars in Edwards, Towns and Gobert.

Projected Starters: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson and Jonas Valančiūnas
On raw numbers alone, Valančiūnas has been one of the more productive 5s in the NBA over the last half decade. In that stretch, he’s put up 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds in just 26.6 minutes.
And up until 2022-23, that production coincided with a positive impact on his teams’ plus-minus.
This season, the New Orleans Pelicans were minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions when Valančiūnas was on the floor and plus-4.3 when he was off. The smaller, nimbler lineups were significantly more effective, even while Valančiūnas continued to pile up points and rebounds.
With the rest of the starters being more capable of fitting into those more switchable and versatile lineups, Valančiūnas almost becomes an easy call here.

Projected Starters: Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson
Jalen Brunson could compete for an All-Star spot in 2024. Randle has made two All-NBA teams in the last three years. Robinson is becoming one of the game’s more dynamic rim-runners and -protectors. And Grimes is looking like a solid gap-filler and three-point shooter for this talented starting five.
And then there’s Barrett.
In 2020-21, his second season, he looked like a promising three-and-D wing who might be able to create a bit for others. But he’s been nightmarishly inefficient over the two seasons since then.
He’s scored a whopping 299.1 fewer points than a perfectly average shooter would have on his attempts over that stretch. He doesn’t get to the free-throw line near enough to make up for that, and his defense isn’t really moving the needle either.
Since the start of 2021-22, the New York Knicks are minus-1.7 points per 100 possessions with Barrett on the floor and plus-7.3 without him.

Projected Starters: Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort and Chet Holmgren
There are varying degrees of star (to superstar) upside in four of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s projected starters, including rookie Holmgren.
Few (if any) young foundations in the NBA are as well laid for longterm success as this one.
And while Dort certainly could be a part of that future, he appears to have the most modest short and longterm prospects.
At 6’3″, Dort is probably too small to be a forward (though his competitiveness and defense allow him to survive there), but he’s not enough of a creator to be a guard. And career shooting marks of 45.4 percent on twos and 33.2 percent on threes through four seasons suggest a bleak future as a shooter.

Projected Starters: Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr.
Harris has had a solid career resurgence with the Orlando Magic, where he’s averaged 9.9 points and 1.9 threes, while shooting 40.4 percent from deep over the last two seasons.
But with his 29th birthday approaching in September, it’s hard to imagine him being much more than a three-and-D fifth option.
That’s fine, and Harris seems like he’ll be a rotation player for several more years, but everyone else in this starting five has significantly more upside.

Projected Starters: James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker and Joel Embiid
This lineup is sort of in limbo. Harden’s trade request is still floating around out there, and that could potentially impact Harris and Tucker. (Maxey and Embiid being around for at least this season feels like a safe assumption.)
For now, though, this starting lineup is pretty obvious. As is its so-called weakest link.
Tucker knows exactly who he is. His 40.5 three-point percentage over the last two seasons and occasional possession-saving rebounds have value in a lineup with as much scoring as this.
But he’s 38 years old, undersized for a 4, too slow to play the 3 and adds almost nothing as an off-the-bounce player on offense.

Projected Starters: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Josh Okogie (or Keita Bates-Diop, Eric Gordon or Yuta Watanabe), Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton
Even without knowing who the Phoenix Suns’ fifth starter will be, this might be the easiest call of the slideshow.
Whoever it is, he’ll be a distant fifth option behind Phoenix’s four max players.
That’s certainly not breaking news. Each of the potential options for that spot knew what they were signing up for.

Projected Starters: Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkić
The Portland Trail Blazers are in flux for the moment. If Lillard’s trade request is honored before training camp, the starting five could look dramatically different.
If not, the projected starting lineup is actually pretty heavy on experience. And Portland was a decent plus-2.1 points per 100 possessions when Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkić were on the floor last season (it’s plus-6.3 with Lillard and Nurkić over their six and a half seasons together).
The one question mark (at least in the short term) is Sharpe, who had unremarkable rebound, assist, steal and block rates as a rookie.
But even Sharpe could be a potential breakout candidate with or without Lillard. Over his last 10 games in 2022-23, he averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists, while shooting 37.8 percent from deep.

Projected Starters: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis
This lineup started 61 games for the Sacramento Kings in 2022-23. So, we know how the pieces fit and what the general roles of each will be.
Last season, Barnes was mostly a dedicated floor spacer on offense who didn’t provide a ton of ancillary complications. And as he enters his age-31 season, it’s hard to imagine a dramatic uptick in production.
That’s especially true with Fox, Huerter, Murray and Sabonis all potentially on the upward slope of their developmental curves.

Projected Starters: Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Victor Wembanyama
This lineup may have the most question marks of any in the exercise. The oldest players of the bunch are Jones and Johnson, both of whom are 23. Sochan is 20, and incoming rookie Wembanyama is 19.
We already know a little bit about what Johnson and Vassell can do as scorers, so really any of the other three could be fair game here.
Though he’s already shown potential as a multipositional defender who can distribute a little, we’ll go with Sochan.
Even though he appears to have the potential to be a solid B to B-plus in plenty of areas of the game, he’s clearly not as far along as Jones as a playmaker, and Wembanyama’s impact on defense could be massive as early as Game 1.

Projected Starters: Dennis Schröder, O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl
Schröder has always had an ability to get to the paint, but his decision-making once he gets there can be questionable. A below-average three-point percentage in seven of his last eight seasons has to be a concern too, given the lack of shooting this lineup had last season.
And while Barnes, Siakam and Poeltl could all contribute to a cramped offensive environment, they’re all at least 6’9″.
The 6’3″ Schröder has far less upside on the defensive end, despite the fact that he always brings plenty of effort there.

Projected Starters: Jordan Clarkson, Ochai Agbaji, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler
Agbaji has some upside as a wing who can knock down threes and defend multiple positions. Best-case scenario, he might even provide a little pop off the dribble.
But right now, he’s in a lineup with four players who’ve already proven that they can be, at the very least, rotation players. And that includes Kessler.
Kessler just turned 22, but he averaged 13.1 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per 75 possessions and ranked in the 87th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus as a rookie.

Projected Starters: Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma and Daniel Gafford
There’s certainly a chance Deni Avdija starts over Kispert, but the latter started 45 games in 2022-23 (five more than Avdija), including 13 of the last 14. And his three-point shooting could do a lot to open up driving lanes for Jones, Poole and Kuzma.
But if this is the group for the Washington Wizards, Kispert isn’t likely to be much more than a floor spacer.
That’s an important role, but all of the above, including potential defensive anchor Gafford, will be asked to do more.

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