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NBA Finals Film Study: Why Celtics' offense will test Mavs' defense – NBA.com
The Celtics had the most efficient offense in regular-season history. Here's what Dallas might see in guarding it in the Finals.
John Schuhmann
The tape shows Jayson Tatum and the Celtics could look to target Luka Doncic during the NBA Finals.
The Boston Celtics had the most efficient regular-season offense in NBA history, scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions, 7.7 more than the league average. That latter number was the fourth-best mark in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.
Only four of the previous 27 teams that led the league in offensive efficiency in the regular season went on to win the championship: the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls, the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers, the 2012-13 Miami Heat and the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors. The Celtics can be the fifth No. 1 offense to win the title if they can continue to win the matchup game against the Dallas Mavericks, who had, statistically, the best defense in the conference finals.
If the Mavs’ defense has a weakness, the Celtics will certainly attack it. Here are some notes, numbers and film on how Boston could look for advantages in the NBA Finals, which tip off Thursday (8:30, ABC).
1. Targeting with Tatum and Brown
The Celtics’ most efficient offensive game of these playoffs was Game 2 of the conference finals. That game, they were most relentless in attacking the Indiana Pacers’ defensive weaknesses, starting with Tyrese Haliburton. Even with Haliburton out for the last two games of the series, the Celtics continued to attack lesser, smaller or less mobile defenders.
The play that resulted in Derrick White’s go-ahead 3-pointer at the end of Game 4 began with a Jrue Holiday ball screen for Jaylen Brown. That got Myles Turner switched onto Brown, who put the big man on his heels, drew help and found White open in the right corner:
Getting lesser defenders in front of Brown or Tatum came mostly via ball screens (sometimes Brown or Tatum setting the screen on those lesser defenders), but the Celtics also got a mismatch — Tatum vs. Doug McDermott — via an off-ball screen from Sam Hauser earlier in Game 4:
As with White’s game-winner, targeting lesser defenders with Brown or Tatum doesn’t have to turn into isolation. It’s simply a way to gain an advantage, get the defense in rotation, and generate a great shot.
2. Doncic could be the primary target
Over their two regular-season meetings, Luka Doncic was involved in 22 ball screens (on the Celtics’ end of the floor) with Brown (seven) or Tatum (15). That was 14 more than any other Mavs defender was involved in over those two games.
The Mavs generally didn’t want to give up those switches, and unlike the Celtics, they’re somewhat willing to put two guys on the ball. But with the Celtics having shooting threats throughout their rotation, putting two on the ball leads to vulnerable situations elsewhere:
Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves didn’t target Doncic or Irving a lot in the conference finals. Wolves guarded by either Mavs star set 38 ball-screens (7.6 per game) for Edwards, about 1/3 the amount (116) set by Wolves who were guarded by the Mavs’ centers (Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II). And Edwards himself set just two ball screens on Irving (none on Doncic), neither of which created any kind of advantage.
The Celtics will certainly target the Mavs’ starting guards more than that.
3. Protect the rim or the 3-point line?
The Celtics also have more shooting threats than Minnesota. There is no Rudy Gobert or Kyle Anderson in this group. If Kristaps Porzingis bumps Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman out of the rotation, Boston’s worst 3-point shooters (regular season + playoffs) in its top eight are Brown (35.6%) and Tatum (36.4%).
Of course, Porzingis is the most intriguing threat, because he’s a 7-foot-2 center who can shoot from a few feet beyond the arc. He also presents a dilemma for the Mavs’ two centers, who rank as two of the three best rim protectors in these playoffs: You can’t protect the rim if you’re guarding your man at the 3-point line and vice versa.
The Mavs did face a 3-point shooting center in the conference semifinals when Gafford and Lively were willing to venture out to contest Chet Holmgren beyond the arc.
But Porzingis (who was 4-for-8 from deep in 29 minutes against the Mavs in the regular season) is a little better equipped to make Dallas pay when the bigs are inclined to help in the paint.
The Celtics had the most efficient offense in NBA history for a reason. You can pick your poison, but there are no easy choices.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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