College basketball transfer portal: What to expect from the 2024 cycle – 247Sports

Things are about to get hectic across college basketball with the transfer portal now officially open. The portal will remain open for 45 days before closing Wednesday, May 1.
When the 2022-23 transfer portal was open, more 1,800 players put their names into the portal.
Although this year’s number isn’t expected to be that high, there have been some rule changes that could result in an influx of players dipping into the portal.
These changes will also impact how recruiting is conducted and ultimately how the top programs fill their offseason needs.
The first change that was made was reducing the portal entry window from 60 days to just 45 days. This was done in hopes to condense the cycle for recruiting college coaches who also have to hit the road in the spring to recruit high school prospects.
But, the change with the biggest ramifications is coming as the results of some December lawsuits that attacked NCAA’s rule of that made players who transferred multiple times ineligible.
After multiple states filed lawsuits against the NCAA, the organizing body passed a preliminary injunction that immediately granted eligibility to multiyear transfers through the end of the spring sports period.
Because of these changes, we will likely see another large portal class. We will see more multi-year transfers than years before since there is no fear of punishment. Also, a lot of players may enter the portal to leverage in negotiations with NIL collectives since this is now total legal by NCAA standards.
So, don’t be surprised if you start seeing some notable players this year — especially ones that transferred previously — hit the portal during this cycle only to eventually pull their names out of the pool. As it stands today, the transfer portal is a way to potentially drive up a player’s “marketability” in addition to helping other players find new homes.
The lawsuits are still ongoing as they seek permanent change with the NCAA and with the first result, although temporary, seemingly everyone from college coaches down to those helping these student-athletes make decisions are operating under the assumption that you will be able to transfer this cycle, regardless if you transferred perviously, and be allowed to play next season.
There was also another recent change this 2023-24 season that will impact how the portal operates.
On March 1, the NCAA sent out a letter to member schools stating that they are going “to pause and not begin investigations involving third-party participation in NIL-related activities.”
In other words, NIL collectives and others involved in the NIL marketplace will be allowed to directly communicate with transfers during the recruiting process as long as it is in compliance with state law.
The days leading up to next Monday can be viewed as the transfer portal’s “soft opening”.
For starters, when a coach gets fired, players are given a 30 day window to enter the portal. As a result, we already see players from school looking for new coaches in the portal. Also, grad transfers are permitted to enter at any time. So as the low and mid-major conference tournaments conclude, you will see more and more graduate players hit the portal.
Once the portal officially opens next week, it’ll predominantly be a storm of the mid to low-major players entering the portal. Their seasons would have been done for day, meaning they would have had time to make this decision.
You will also see a decent amount of high-major players entering during this time but only from teams that were not selected the day before to play in the NCAA Tournament.
While the rule changes will impact the number of players transferring this cycle, the NCAA pausing investigations regarding collectives talking to recruits will change how recruiting is done.
Without getting into the weeds, collectives not being allowed to directly communicate with recruits prohibited any for of paper trail with the end result being verbally agreed upon terms but verbally agreed upon terms is just another way of saying: one team/collective said the highest number and the recruit then committed.
It absolutely didn’t mean the player would or even did get that number as in many cases they haven’t and there’s nothing to account for it and zero liability.
On the other hand, players, families or their agents could simply fabricate competing NIL offers to fraudulently drive up market prices for players.
However, in a world of contracts, a competing collective can simply see what is truly being offered and will result in helping cool down this hyper-inflated market.
Again, collectives will only be able to do such things as long as it is in compliance with state law.
It’s ultimately a positive development for this upcoming cycle as their will be accountability on both sides of the aisle.
A player or representative will be limited in what offers they can fabricate in conversations and collectives will be held accountable when stating the highest number but not actually having the finances to back it up.
But it’s also common for college basketball programs to take some time off before having end-of-year meeting where these portal entries are made. Because of that, expect to see a gradual build up of players entering the portal after those meetings have happened and teams are eliminated from the NIT and NCAA tournaments.
The majority of highly notable and impactful transfer will occur the later we get into March and into early April. Then, we will see players hit the portal based on roster changes and recruitment during this window.
Again, some will enter solely to renegotiate their NIL deals (especially once they see the new deals made by other players who have been plucked out the portal).
So, all of this to say, that it’s time to buckle up and lock into 247Sports. It’s officially portal season.
This article originates on 247Sports.
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