What you need to know ahead of college basketball's buzzy slate, headlined by Kentucky-UNC, Purdue-Arizona – 247Sports

Finals week is over, it’s time to hoop. Saturday’s college basketball slate is as good as it gets. Blue Blood battles, home-and-home heavyweight fights and maybe the game of the year between two Final Four contenders? Arizona is the king of the Pac-12. Purdue is the Thor of the Big Ten. But, it doesn’t have a hammer. It has Zach Edey.
What a war.
Before we dive into the nitty-gritty of Saturday’s biggest games, let’s get some rapid-fire thoughts out on some of the other top showdowns:
RELATED: What we’ve learned about each SEC team in the first month
Okay, onto the rest of this gorgeous slate. Here are the match-ups to watch in seven of the critical bouts. You want stats? I got stats. Let’s dive in.
Creighton-Alabama has the makings of an all-out barnburner. The math will be math-ing in this one. Creighton only shoots shots at the rim or from downtown. Alabama does the same.
It certainly comes down to which guard has the bounce-back night. Aaron Estrada struggled to get going against Purdue, finishing with five points on just 2-for-8 shooting in 29 minutes. Creighton got sunk by UNLV on Wednesday, and Trey Alexander finished with seven points on a miserable 2-for-13 showing.
Both are talented, veteran guards. Both are invaluable for their respective teams. Both will be anxious to get back on track in this “first to 100” track meet. Both can go for 25 in a jiffy. Creighton and Alabama will need all of it.
Alabama at No. 8 Creighton, 8 p.m. ET, FOX
Purdue’s transition defense is better but still not a major strength. Arizona has been money in transition all year, averaging over 20 points per game which ranks 27th-best nationally. Arizona has multiple guys who can push the break so easily, and that early offense opens up some wide-open treys. The Wildcats are shooting 12 for 25 (48%) on transition 3-pointers. If Purdue doesn’t get back or match up properly, Arizona will make the Boilers pay for their sins. Transition defense is easier when your opponent has to take the ball out of the net. Good thing Purdue has the most dominant scorer in the country.
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 Purdue, 4:30 p.m. ET, Peacock
UCLA’s very good defense turns your water off at the rim and forces a billion jumpers. Ohio State’s very good offense is efficient at the rim, but it doesn’t get there often. Instead, it relies on its four dangerous shooters to make a boatload of jumpers.
UCLA forces a 3-pointer on over 50% of the opponent’s attempts. That ranks 360 out of 362 Division I teams. But can you flood the paint and give up 3-pointers against Ohio State club that has Roddy Gayle, Jamison Battle, Bruce Thornton and Dale Bonner all shooting over 40% from beyond the arc?
Don’t be surprised if Mick Cronin leaves Evan Mahaffey wide open and forces the Ohio State sophomore plus defender to beat him. Maybe Ohio State counters with more minutes for freshman wing Scotty Middleton who has started to shoot it with a lot more confidence. It’s a fascinating, complex chess match between Cronin and Chris Holtmann.
Ohio State vs. UCLA, 3 p.m. ET, CBS
Tom Izzo-coached teams always want to run, run and run some more to get easy buckets against defenses that are scrambling to get set.
Baylor’s been fabulous all year except the transition defense has been exploitable. Florida torched Baylor for 33 points in transition. Even Gardner-Webb got out on the break for 21. Baylor did a much better job keeping Seton Hall under wraps, but Michigan State will certainly test Baylor. Jaden Akins has scored 33 of his 87 points in transition. Tyson Walker is always dangerous of igniting on the break. Tre Holloman, Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears Jr. are much more dangerous in the open court.
Michigan State has to double-down on the one offensive piece it’s good at right now. It starts with getting stops which is easier said than done against this elite Baylor offense, but the Bears’ leaky transition defense might provide the get-right opportunity for Michigan State in a must-win spot for the Spartans.
No. 6 Baylor vs. Michigan State, 2 p.m. ET, FOX
A desperate Indiana team welcomes No. 2 Kansas into the madhouse that is Assembly Hall. It will be one of the most intimidating venues of the season for a battle-tested KU club.
The football pads better be out because this one will be one in the trenches.
Indiana’s top usage rates:
That’s who Mike Woodson wants to get the ball to as much as humanly possible. Nearly 43% of Indiana’s shots come at the rim, and the Hoosiers are very efficient, shooting an absurd 66.3% around the basket.
Kansas counters with one of the top interior defenses. KU ranks 18th nationally allowing just 28.7% of shots at the rim, per Bart Torvik. Opponents are shooting a measly 52% at the rim against Kansas. Kevin McCullar and Dajuan Harris put so much pressure on the ball and when you can get past that first wave, here comes the bouncy, chiseled KJ Adams and 7-foot-2 anchor Hunter Dickinson.
For all the consternation about Dickinson’s impact on the defensive end, KU has been excellent so far defensively (No. 13 nationally when preseason priors are removed) against a brutal schedule. Even a well-coached offense like UConn could get just 15 shots at the rim out of 56 total attempts. Kansas will force Indiana to make jumpers, but if one or two go in early, the Assembly Hall will be a mosh pit and the equation changes in a real way.
The threat of Donovan Clingan’s shot-blocking had Harris restless against UConn. The veteran point guard missed four point-blank layups even against Clingan’s drop coverage. Clingan’s ability to smartly position himself in drop coverage where he can help on Harris’ drives without leaving an open cavern for a wraparound pass to Dickinson for a dunk gave the steady KU point guard some real issues.
But Harris has been struggling to make layups all year long (8-for-25, 32%).
Ware is not quite the same defender as Clingan yet, but he’s still super rangy and can put any shot in the fourth row of the bleachers. Harris will likely be Gabe Cupps’ defensive assignment. The gritty, IU freshman will play hard, but Harris is older and longer. Harris will be able to get into the teeth of the defense against IU’s deep drop coverage, but his decision-making and execution has to be better. If Ware is worried about getting back to Dickinson, Harris has to take that one extra dribble and finish at the rim instead of flinging up an off-balanced, runner from inside the restricted area. If Ware commits to hunting that block, Harris will have the wraparound pass to Dickinson or a kickout all day, every day. Auburn abused Indiana’s ball-screen defense, and Kansas can do the same, but it will look a bit different.
No. 2 Kansas at Indiana: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS
North Carolina’s defense has not been very good. UNC ranks No. 48 in defensive efficiency on KenPom, but when preseason priors are removed, UNC is No. 100 nationally in defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
Ball-screen defense has been one of the biggest bugaboos for UNC. Opponents are averaging 0.902 points per possession against the Tar Heels in pick-and-rolls.
UConn’s tandem of Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton combined for 37 points, 11 assists and just one turnover using a steady diet of ball-screens. Kentucky might not be quite at the level of the defending champions, but it’s not that far away. Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard have ripped apart drop coverage (which UNC will play) all season long, and DJ Wagner is still dangerous. Even Antonio Reeves can get into his floater game which has been unstoppable this season.
UNC is older and experienced, but Kentucky’s speed could be a problem. Maybe that means Seth Trimble gets more run because he’s probably UNC’s best perimeter defender. If UNC’s ball-screen defense gets shredded again, this could be a major track meet.
No. 9 UNC vs. No. 14 Kentucky, 5:30 p.m. ET, CBS
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