College Basketball Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Tuesday, December 5 – RotoWire

This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Tuesday brings us a loaded college hoops slate. We have the Big East-Big 12 Battle resuming as well as the Jimmy V Classic in store. Let’s jump into the picks!
Florida Atlantic is on a roll, winning five straight games since suffering a surprising home loss to Bryant on November 18th. A loss like this might normally cause concern, but the Owls returned to form following this stumble, making it clear the game against Bryant was a fluke.
During their current win streak, the Owls scored 91 points on Butler, 96 on Texas A&M, 84 on Virginia Tech, 83 on Liberty, and — most recently — 90 points against Charleston. Needless to say, most if not all of these teams have legitimate NCAA tournament aspirations, underscoring the battle-tested quality of Florida Atlantic.
Illinois, meanwhile, delivered a resounding road victory in its previous game, a 76-58 conference-opening win at Rutgers. I would be remiss if I didn’t confess that I picked against the Illini in that matchup, although I had several good reasons, many of which still hold up going into Tuesday’s game at Madison Square Garden. In hindsight, the game against the Scarlet Knights perhaps revealed more about the home team than the Illini. In any event, even with its emphatic victory this past Saturday, Illinois still has many areas of concern, any of which are likely to bite them when playing against an explosive team like Florida Atlantic.
First, in a close game, Illinois cannot be trusted because it can’t make free throws. The Illini are making under 58 percent from the charity stripe, officially the fourth-lowest percentage among all D1 teams. They also rarely get to the foul line, ranking 320th in free-throw attempt rate. Florida Atlantic does a good job of defending without fouling, ranking 95th in defensive free-throw attempt rate, so we shouldn’t expect many of Illinois’ points to come from the foul line.  The second key issue for the Illini is their turnover margin percentage. Illinois seldom causes turnovers, ranking 349th in defensive turnover percentage, and then it also ranks 212th in offensive turnover percentage, almost guaranteeing that it has a turnover disadvantage against any team that’s above average in the turnover department. Unfortunately for Illinois, that is indeed the case with Florida Atlantic, which ranks 69th in offensive turnover percentage and 166th in defensive turnover rate.
Overall, while these two teams are effectively tied in overall efficiency, I have to give the edge to Florida Atlantic. The Owls are better at scoring and don’t have the same number of glaring weaknesses. Illinois may step up on defense and win the game in a low-scoring battle, but ultimately I’m betting that the Illini won’t be able to keep up with the Owls’ potent offensive attack. I’m taking the Owls in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida Atlantic -2
Providence enters Tuesday with a 7-1 record, and it’s mostly winning thanks to its defense. The Friars rank above-average on offense, 79th in efficiency (per KenPom), but their defense is all the way up to No. 21. A lockdown defense is how Providence earned its best win of the season back on Nov. 14 when it defeated Wisconsin, 72-59. The Badgers’ offense has the 19th-highest efficiency rating, so this final score is a testament to the Friars’ defensive ability. 
Oklahoma, in contrast, remains undefeated this season at 7-0, and it’s gotten to this point with great play on both ends of the court. The Sooners are 35th on offense and 23rd on defense among all teams on KenPom’s efficiency charts, making them a tough team to match up against. This is especially true on defense, which has posted elite numbers across the board. Oklahoma ranks ninth in effective field goal percentage allowed, 18th in three-point percentage allowed, and 18th in two-point percentage allowed. When we also consider the fact that Tuesday will mark Providence’s first true road game of the season, it’s easy to see the gigantic challenge that awaits the Friars in Norman.
Comparing these teams against each other, it’s apparent that Providence is well-equipped to defend Oklahoma. The Sooners are among the best inside scoring teams in the country, making over 61 percent of two-point shots, the eighth-highest percentage among all D1 teams, but this is less helpful against Providence which is among the best teams at guarding the paint, holding opponents under 40 percent on two-pointers, the third-lowest percentage allowed.  
Looking at how this game is likely to play out, this matchup has all the makings of an intense defensive battle. I tend to think Oklahoma will pull away by the end, but I still prefer our odds with a low-scoring game. I’m taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 145
At first glance, Indiana appears in fine shape, sitting at 6-1 without any bad losses, but the numbers suggest this is all about to change. Indiana started the season at No. 50 on KenPom’s overall efficiency chart, and despite only losing one game, a 20-point loss to UConn on Nov. 19, Indiana has slid down to No. 69.
 It’s incredibly difficult to look past a game against Michigan, Indiana’s first true road game of the season I should add, and yet I wouldn’t blame the Hoosiers because after Michigan, they are lined up to play against Auburn and then Kansas. Additionally, Indiana has a gargantuan flaw that will inevitably lead to several losses — it can’t shoot three-pointers. The Hoosiers are making 25 percent of shots from behind the arc, the 13th-lowest percentage among all D1 teams. What’s worse, they also seldom attempt them, ranking No. 356 in three-point attempt rate. Then again, perhaps we should give them credit for being self-aware enough to know they shouldn’t shoot them because they rarely fall through the net. Either way, Indiana has the lowest percentage of points from three-pointers among all 362 D1 teams, so we shouldn’t expect them to score many points with outside shots.
As fate would have it, Michigan is one of the best three-point shooting teams in all the land, making over 38 percent, the 44th-highest percentage. The Wolverines are also great at inside scoring, making over 57 percent inside the arc. Add these numbers up, and we get an effective field goal percentage that is the 18th-best in the country. Michigan’s defense is having major issues this year, but the one thing it does well is guard the paint. The Wolverines are holding opponents to 47 percent inside the arc, the 97th-lowest percentage allowed.
All in all, it’s hard to find a matchup with more deceiving records. Indiana is 6-1 but its schedule is ranked No. 205 in difficulty, while Michigan is 4-4 with a schedule ranked No. 27 in difficulty. If things were a little different, if Indiana had any threat of long-range shooting, or if Michigan’s one defensive strength wasn’t interior defense, then perhaps I’d reconsider my pick, but based on recent results and the skill set of each team, I have to go with the Wolverines. Indiana undoubtedly has plenty of talent, and conference games are never a given, but it’s hard to imagine how the Hoosiers win as long as Michigan can maintain its presence in the paint. I’m laying the points with the Wolverines in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan -7
Here’s a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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